COVID-19

[mikeh]

CEPI is public private partnership looking at product development for emerging infectious disease threats, the kind of organisation that should have been set up after SARS, but only got the go-ahead about three years back.

They've put together some numbers on funding required for vaccine development - https://cepi.net/news_cepi/2-billion-re ... -19-virus/
It's chicken-feed compared to what an outbreak like this costs. How/who to pay for it, that's the issue. There's no doubt collective preemptive investments (knowing some vaccines and diagnostics will fail for various reasons along the way) will be cost-effective.

Here's some of their breakdown

Today’s call for $2 billion of new funding will enable CEPI to expand the number of vaccine candidates at the outset to increase our chances of success, and to fund the clinical trials for these candidate vaccines. Our ambition is to have at least 3 vaccine candidates, which could be submitted to regulatory authorities for licensure for general use/use in outbreaks.

CEPI has identified five funding phases:
$100m immediately, to support
o Vaccine development for 8 candidates through phase 1 clinical trials

$375m by END OF MARCH, to support
o Manufacturing of clinical trial material for phase 2/3 trials for 4-6 vaccine candidates
o Preparation of phase 2/3 trials for 4-6 vaccine candidates (potential initiation of phase
2 trial for 1 candidate)
o Initial investments to expand global manufacturing capacity. These investments are needed to ensure the vaccine is ultimately available at scale and globally

$400m by END OF JUNE, to support
o Execution of phase 2/3 trials for at least 2 candidates
o Preparation of phase 2/3 clinical trials in a number of locations globally
o Production of additional phase 2/3 clinical trial material
o Further investment in scaling up / technology transfer of manufacturing process for up to 6 candidates

$400m by END OF SEPTEMBER, to support
o Conduct of phase 2/3 clinical trials for additional 4 candidates in a number of locations globally
o Investment in large-scale manufacturing capacity for at least 3 vaccine candidates

$500-750m in 2021, to support
o Enhancing global manufacturing capacity with tech transfer to geographically
distributed locations of up to 3 candidates
o Completion of clinical trial testing
o Completion of regulatory and quality requirements for at least 3 vaccines
o Preparation of regulatory dossiers for emergency authorization/licensure submission

[Trinucleus]

Before I spend as much as £4.99, can someone tell me if this will be fully BSL-4 compliant?

I succumbed to the panic buying in Asda and bought three boxes of tissues instead of two

[raven]

Looks like we're f.cked then. Trump gutted the CDC and claims it's a hoax. Over here, Matt Hancock's claims to have been working with the supermarket chains to guarantee the food supply have been denied by the industry.

At least someone's been thinking about how it's all going to work, even if it isn't Hancock.

The guy who delivered my shopping today said he'd been told how to deliver to people self-isolating already. Call them first, bag it all, leave it outside until he gets the all clear & can retrieve the boxes when they've gone back inside. And they're going to stop using those electronic pads you sign with your fingers. People are supposed to put a sign in the window so they know who's self-isolating too - that one might be a bit more dicey.

Poor guy was a bit worried about it 'cos he's in his 60s. Don't blame him. I hope they get disposable gloves and extra pay. We're going to be relying on these people.

[Gfamily]

A guy from Waitrose was on the radio this morning and said how one store had had 7,000 online orders/deliveries last weekend compared to a normal 5,000.

My first thought was that last weekend we had been given advance warning of appalling weather, which might have had something to do with the increased numbers of orders from home.

[shpalman]

An Iranian colleague's wife is still in touch with other medics who stayed in Iran after qualifying as doctors. A
They told her that there were many odd pneumonia cases in Qom in November.

None of these "ancient Covid" claims make sense.

It's easy to backtrack to 1st Dec 2019 and a handful of cases. By 31 Dec there would have been in the region of 500 cases in Wuhan, including about 50 in the hospitals - and it was only at the end of Dec that any doctor noticed the anomoly, with that whistle-blower doctor. Of those 50, two-thirds were directly linked to the Wuhan market. It's simply impossible for that profile to fit in with any other origin.

Oh this wasn't doubting the Whuhan origin. There were a lot of Chinese in Qoms though. But as you say, it's not that likely that it got to Iran quite so early.

This is interesting on the origin:

https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/ ... 03-04?n=11

Starting point mid November to mid December.

Italians today are all over the news that Germany found its patient zero with the idea that the this is the source of the Codogno outbreak. It's not clear to me if there was any contact between Munich and Codogno outside of unreferenced rumours spread by morons on facebook. But it's noted that there was asymptomatic transmission, and the rapid increase in the number of cases in the first few days supports the idea that there were actually about 60 cases in the Codogno area already on the 21st of February when we started counting.

Does https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/ ... -03-04?n=5 or https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/ ... -03-04?n=6 support that possibility? I can only assume the Munich (Bavaria) strain is "BavPat1" while the Codogno strain is "CDG1".

https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/ ... -03-04?n=9 is more clear.

An analysis from 6 days ago of two cases in Brazil notes that one case (who had been to "Lombardy") fits with the sequence identified in Codogno but the other case (who had been to "Milan") fits into a completely different phylogenetic cluster "which contains sequences from several countries including China, England, Australia, France, USA, Singapore, Taiwan, and Sweden". Their conclusion is anyway that this second case caught the virus in Northern Italy which means that "the outbreak in Northern Italy was likely the result of multiple introductions to the region and from not a single source."

i.e. this patient has the virus from all over the place but not Italy -> wow Italy really has the virus from all over the place.

[shpalman]

https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/ ... -03-04?n=9

The German "BavPat1" sequence is part of an introduction from China much earlier in the epidemic. Its similarity to the other sequence in the cluster (they are separated by only one mutation), could indicate undetected ("cryptic") transmission in Europe stemming from this early German cluster.

It could also be the result of two separate introductions to Europe - an unsampled sequence from elsewhere could fall between 'BavPat1' and the rest of the cluster. At the moment, we cannot say with certainty which scenario is correct.

[Vertigowooyay]

And a very hearty 'f.ck you' to all the pricks emptying the shelves of hand sanitiser and hand soap to sell it for egregious prices on EBay. You are among the f.cking worst of humanity.

[shpalman]

Today's numbers - 4636 total infections of which 3916 are still infected - doesn't fit with the idea of a SIR model which is peaking (limited to something like a susceptible population of 6-7000), but rather with the idea that the exponential growth switched to a longer time constant 5 days ago as the containment measures took effect. So with that in mind the prediction for tomorrow's total infections would be about 5700.

[Little waster]

Couldn't find this on search so presume it isn't a re-post.


You can all relax Rent-a-Gobshite Simon Jenkins says it'll be fine.

[shpalman]

And a very hearty 'f.ck you' to all the pricks emptying the shelves of hand sanitiser and hand soap to sell it for egregious prices on EBay. You are among the f.cking worst of humanity.

https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news ... es-3922697

We really deserve extinction.

[Trinucleus]

And a very hearty 'f.ck you' to all the pricks emptying the shelves of hand sanitiser and hand soap to sell it for egregious prices on EBay. You are among the f.cking worst of humanity.

https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news ... es-3922697

We really deserve extinction.

Plenty in Sheffield today, and tissues as well. Only liquid soap had gone

[KAJ]

And a very hearty 'f.ck you' to all the pricks emptying the shelves of hand sanitiser and hand soap to sell it for egregious prices on EBay. You are among the f.cking worst of humanity.

Relatives are stealing hand sanitiser from Northampton General Hospital's wards

[headshot]

Is there a simple explanation about why toilet rolls sells out so quickly?

It’s really rather bulky and takes up a lot of shelf space usually on a single aisle, with not much being stored at the actual shop, so any type of run on the stuff (pun intended) will mean that those are the first shelves And the first entire aisle to appear obviously empty.

[Martin Y]

People are rubbish. The projection is that the UK will see this peak over a period of perhaps three weeks, but maybe not until June. So there's plenty of time for the folk who've cleared the shelves of dried pasta this week to decide it's a phoney war because the sky hasn't fallen and start a noisy backlash against their own panic. What fun times.

[dyqik]

Harvard has just banned all international travel on Univesity business, and all non-essential domestic travel. But my employer hasn't issued any guidance at all, so I'm free to go to a conference next week and then come back to the Harvard campus. But if I still had a grad student, they wouldn't be able to go.

[AMS]

People are rubbish. The projection is that the UK will see this peak over a period of perhaps three weeks, but maybe not until June. So there's plenty of time for the folk who've cleared the shelves of dried pasta this week to decide it's a phoney war because the sky hasn't fallen and start a noisy backlash against their own panic. What fun times.

This is why I'm not too worried about shortages right now. Basically we need to have stocked up a bit on basics somewhere over the next few months. Tesco will have restocked on pasta and loo roll well before then.

[dyqik]

People are rubbish. The projection is that the UK will see this peak over a period of perhaps three weeks, but maybe not until June. So there's plenty of time for the folk who've cleared the shelves of dried pasta this week to decide it's a phoney war because the sky hasn't fallen and start a noisy backlash against their own panic. What fun times.

This is why I'm not too worried about shortages right now. Basically we need to have stocked up a bit on basics somewhere over the next few months. Tesco will have restocked on pasta and loo roll well before then.

Think of it as an opportunity to refresh your Brexit stash early.

[Bird on a Fire]

As a young immigrant, the incredibly low prices mean we can probably afford to visit my wife's family this summer, and go to her friend's wedding. Unless they completely ban international travel.

How likely are we to get stuck in Europe?

[dyqik]

Harvard has just banned all international travel on Univesity business, and all non-essential domestic travel. But my employer hasn't issued any guidance at all, so I'm free to go to a conference next week and then come back to the Harvard campus. But if I still had a grad student, they wouldn't be able to go.

Turns out the host university had a case back in January, from someone just returned from Wuhan. But only one tested and one presumed case in Arizona since then.

[Cardinal Fang]

You can all relax Rent-a-Gobshite Simon Jenkins says it'll be fine.

Not getting that message from the article. Getting more of a "the politicians and media are stoking fears of of a crisis, but all the medical experts are being more measured and calm" vibe. Which is true. If you believed the tabloids, we're currently facing an epidemic bigger and more deadly than the Black Death yet, let's be honest, the majority of us who get Covid-19 will feel crap for a few days then be fine again

CF

[lpm]

Anyone watched the Pandemic documentary on Netflix telly? I've just finished it. Quite good.

Pretty amazing that people being filmed 9 months ago are talking about the inevitable pandemic, and by the time it's aired we are in one.

We on here are all so incredibly lucky compared to people on the show. It's awful to think of that hospital in Jaipur crammed with Covid patients.

[Blackcountryboy]

We are away for a few days. Wishing I had put a sign on the porch door saying 'Self Isolating', keep the burglars out.

[headshot]

Frau HS’s university today sent an email to her department saying that it has cancelled next month’s graduation ceremonies and is making preparations to potentially close campus.

This is a major uni and very large city in the U.K. which has a lot of Chinese students

[mikeh]

Frau HS’s university today sent an email to her department saying that it has cancelled next month’s graduation ceremonies and is making preparations to potentially close campus.

This is a major uni and very large city in the U.K. which has a lot of Chinese students

Interesting.
Our (UK) university sent out an update today, advising only essential international travel and need Vice Chancellor sign-off on anything to China, Italy and probably one or two other places.
But no travel ban, per se. And not cancelling meeting/gatherings in the short-term. Our unit has its annual conference (with about 400 folks mostly from the NHS coming to it, mostly data manager and research-types, not so many frontline healthcare workers) next week. Happily I'm work-from-home anyway for the next couple of weeks so I'm not going, but I'm a little bit surprised it's still happening.

[dyqik]

Austin, TX, has cancelled the SXSW music festival, which is massive.