UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

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shpalman
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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by shpalman » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:46 am

I'm saying that the best solution I can think of would be to not have a United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland anymore.

(Well, the best solution is of course to have the UK within EU rules, but this also annoys people.)

Scottish independence, with Scotland in the EU, would just move the annoying land border between EU and non-EU. It would make this particular issue even worse.
molto tricky

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by plodder » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:50 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:51 am
plodder wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:38 am
There’s no permanent solution right now. What we might see is moves that eventually cause enough leverage to force a solution. A much weaker UK would be one route to untangling this mess, a much richer UK would be another.
You may be correct that the solution is that the UK permanently agrees to transfer billions of extra spending to Northern Ireland. That could be explained to the rUK as compensation for economic disruption. If there's enough cash flowing the unionist factions may be mollified. But I really don't know whether that will work. A lot of the dispute appears to be about more abstract things like identity, and they are more difficult to buy off.

A much weaker or richer UK would affect the balance. But either will take a long time to happen.
I think it ultimately boils down to money. Identities can be bought - we've all seen pork barrel politics. As another example, Scotland has a very distinct identity from England, yet it voted not to leave the union - for economic reasons. Now we see increased support for Scottish (and Welsh) nationalism as it looks like the UK isn't the best economic bet. Things like the Free Ports in the budget are absolutely key here. Singapore of the North is the intention and we're certainly in for some changes.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Sciolus » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:53 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:46 am
(Well, the best solution is of course to have the UK within EU rules, but this also annoys a small number of people who have a disproportionate amount of power.)
I will never stop making this point.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Grumble » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:41 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:46 am
I'm saying that the best solution I can think of would be to not have a United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland anymore.

(Well, the best solution is of course to have the UK within EU rules, but this also annoys people.)

Scottish independence, with Scotland in the EU, would just move the annoying land border between EU and non-EU. It would make this particular issue even worse.
And what about the (current) majority in NI who want to remain in the U.K.?
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by shpalman » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:53 am

This is a situation in which it is logically impossible to give everyone what they want.

I don't see how a large quantity of money going to Northern Ireland means that there doesn't have to be a border somewhere between thing and not-thing if Ireland not-the-whole-Island remains thing while Great Britain wants to be not-thing.
molto tricky

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Sciolus » Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:38 pm

As people have been pointing out for the last four years.

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Woodchopper
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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:00 pm

plodder wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:50 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:51 am
plodder wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:38 am
There’s no permanent solution right now. What we might see is moves that eventually cause enough leverage to force a solution. A much weaker UK would be one route to untangling this mess, a much richer UK would be another.
You may be correct that the solution is that the UK permanently agrees to transfer billions of extra spending to Northern Ireland. That could be explained to the rUK as compensation for economic disruption. If there's enough cash flowing the unionist factions may be mollified. But I really don't know whether that will work. A lot of the dispute appears to be about more abstract things like identity, and they are more difficult to buy off.

A much weaker or richer UK would affect the balance. But either will take a long time to happen.
I think it ultimately boils down to money. Identities can be bought - we've all seen pork barrel politics. As another example, Scotland has a very distinct identity from England, yet it voted not to leave the union - for economic reasons. Now we see increased support for Scottish (and Welsh) nationalism as it looks like the UK isn't the best economic bet. Things like the Free Ports in the budget are absolutely key here. Singapore of the North is the intention and we're certainly in for some changes.
Maybe, maybe not. Its also possible to point to peoples who were willing to make greats sacrifices for national independence - Ireland a hundred years ago, Ukraine today. Its complicated.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:07 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:53 am
This is a situation in which it is logically impossible to give everyone what they want.

I don't see how a large quantity of money going to Northern Ireland means that there doesn't have to be a border somewhere between thing and not-thing if Ireland not-the-whole-Island remains thing while Great Britain wants to be not-thing.
It depends whether they're pissed off because they absolutely don't want a border. Or whether they're pissed off because Johnson lied and then sold them out. The letter can be read both ways. If the latter or a combination of both they may be persuaded to avoid doing anything drastic by a sufficiently generous act of contrition by Whitehall.

But if it is just about the border then I agree, there isn't a compromise that'll satisfy all of the unionists, nationalists, Republic of Ireland, current UK government and the EU. Someone has to accept a turd sandwich, and at the moment that's the unionists.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by plodder » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:40 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:53 am
This is a situation in which it is logically impossible to give everyone what they want.

I don't see how a large quantity of money going to Northern Ireland means that there doesn't have to be a border somewhere between thing and not-thing if Ireland not-the-whole-Island remains thing while Great Britain wants to be not-thing.

The fudge is in the definitions used for things like border, thing and not-thing.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by plodder » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:42 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:00 pm

Maybe, maybe not. Its also possible to point to peoples who were willing to make greats sacrifices for national independence - Ireland a hundred years ago, Ukraine today. Its complicated.
Well, as long as Westminster don't roll the tanks into George Square we're hardly in that territory.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Allo V Psycho » Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:14 pm

plodder wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:42 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:00 pm

Maybe, maybe not. Its also possible to point to peoples who were willing to make greats sacrifices for national independence - Ireland a hundred years ago, Ukraine today. Its complicated.
Well, as long as Westminster don't roll the tanks into George Square we're hardly in that territory.
What, like that time before?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_George_Square
Supposedly my grandad was there with his revolver in his pocket, but didn't fancy taking on machine guns.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:12 pm

5E2D68C7-8A14-4557-AB73-B45F00C9BD09.png
5E2D68C7-8A14-4557-AB73-B45F00C9BD09.png (468.76 KiB) Viewed 417 times
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/ ... ame=iossmf

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:45 pm

aa2051 wrote:It’s over Ireland! I have the Highlands!
Reddit manages to get Star Wars prequel jokes everywhere.
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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by plodder » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:03 am

Allo V Psycho wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:14 pm
plodder wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:42 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:00 pm

Maybe, maybe not. Its also possible to point to peoples who were willing to make greats sacrifices for national independence - Ireland a hundred years ago, Ukraine today. Its complicated.
Well, as long as Westminster don't roll the tanks into George Square we're hardly in that territory.
What, like that time before?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_George_Square
Supposedly my grandad was there with his revolver in his pocket, but didn't fancy taking on machine guns.
Didn't realise they'd sent tanks!

Yes, exactly like that. If Westminster does that then a bribe won't cut it so easily. Although if you've read your Scottish history its a murky broth of backstabbing, betrayal, lies and cunning, effeminate English aristocrats and weak willed, effeminate clan chiefs who fell for the soft southern effeminate lifestyle and sold out their hairy, brave, hairy, brave, hairy people. Och aye the noo so it is, so it is.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by TopBadger » Sat Mar 06, 2021 11:45 pm

Perhaps PM Dicks calculation is that in the intervening 20 years since the GFA the guns have rusted and bomb making skills have vanished... I think its going to take more than a letter to convince him there is a problem.
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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:07 am

It looks like Johnson’s plan is to build a tunnel from Scotland to Northern Ireland. It’s a nice symbol of the union and would cut travel times.

Or at least talk about it and do feasibility studies for years until it’s someone else’s problem.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:02 pm

Isn't that the tunnel whose path would take it extremely close to a load of unexploded bombs?

As a symbol of, etc etc.
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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:25 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:02 pm
Isn't that the tunnel whose path would take it extremely close to a load of unexploded bombs?

As a symbol of, etc etc.
There would presumably be a lot of rock between the munitions and the tunnel. So the explosives shouldn’t be disturbed. Would have been a big issue for a bridge though.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by shpalman » Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:48 pm

And this tunnel would reassure the EU about stuff from the UK not being brought into EU via Ireland to avoid third country controls how exactly?
molto tricky

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Mar 07, 2021 3:03 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:25 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:02 pm
Isn't that the tunnel whose path would take it extremely close to a load of unexploded bombs?

As a symbol of, etc etc.
There would presumably be a lot of rock between the munitions and the tunnel. So the explosives shouldn’t be disturbed. Would have been a big issue for a bridge though.
Ah yes, that was it.
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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by veravista » Sun Mar 07, 2021 4:14 pm

Not only a lot of rock, but also an awful lot of water. And then you'd just need to get to/from Stranraer. And to/from Larne.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:06 pm

veravista wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 4:14 pm
And then you'd just need to get to/from Stranraer. And to/from Larne.
They are talking about a rail tunnel, like under the channel. There is already a railway line from Stranraer to Glasgow, and from Larne to Belfast. Though they would need major upgrading.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by MartinDurkin » Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:10 pm

Aren't they different gauges on either end?

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by veravista » Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:34 pm

I think major upgrading is a tad of an understatement.

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Re: UK-EU relations and Northern Ireland

Post by Herainestold » Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:12 pm

Come on, it is not going to happen.
A border in the Irish Sea just means that Irish unification is closer. Another five years, hold a referendum, NI will agree to join Ireland in the EU.

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