Blyatskrieg

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jimbob
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:11 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:08 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:43 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:28 pm
Thanks everyone.

Today there are rumours of Russians encircled at Vysokopillya. This seems plausible, but I've not found any confirmation. There's been mentions of Russian positions there for a while, and Ukraine has been pressing on the flanks there in northern Kherson oblast, including liberating Ivanivka a few weeks back. However, Russian troops have been quite good at abandoning positions to avoid encirclement before, and claims of two thousand encircled Russians don't seem plausible - I'd be surprised if there were two thousand Russians in Vysokopillya to begin with.
Looks implausible

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550 ... B3VBCLd2EQ
Def Mon
@DefMon3

This is how I think the rumor got started.
1. I reported V. being close to being encircled.
2. A few hours later
@Kartinamaslom5
wrote something similar. I asked, he had no other source than looking at the map making coming to the same conclusion as i did.

I'm pretty sure I started following Def Mon as a result of some of your posts here.
He's a good follow. I suspect he's right here, but would add he doesn't think it's impossible, just not really supported by anything and shelling evidence points to a frontline through the village instead. The key point is for this to be the case, things would have had to have moved pretty fast, and we have nothing but rumour and the fact that Ukrainians have been pushing in this area and Vysokopillya is a bit of a salient, and thus vulnerable to envelopment.

My current take home is that encirclement isn't likely, but the possibility the position might be abandoned due to threat of encirclement (as happened at Malaya Rohan, Trostyanets and numerous places north of Kyiv) shouldn't be ruled out.

Regardless of encirclement status, the claims that two thousand Russians are involved are very dubious. There's no way there's two thousand of the f.ckers in Vysokopillya, given how few troops they have for the Kherson front in general.
It's a bit stronger than that in the thread I linked one post to.

It looks as though his reading of the map might have lead TPYXA to "make it clickbait"
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Gfamily » Fri Jul 22, 2022 3:09 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:04 pm
meanwhile the NASA FIRMS data looks interesting

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z

lots of fires now in the occupied South
Useful website, now bookmarked, thanks
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 22, 2022 4:23 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 3:09 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:04 pm
meanwhile the NASA FIRMS data looks interesting

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z

lots of fires now in the occupied South
Useful website, now bookmarked, thanks
worth comparing the historical data


July 1st https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z

July 21st https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:13 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:11 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:08 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:43 pm


Looks implausible

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550 ... B3VBCLd2EQ




I'm pretty sure I started following Def Mon as a result of some of your posts here.
He's a good follow. I suspect he's right here, but would add he doesn't think it's impossible, just not really supported by anything and shelling evidence points to a frontline through the village instead. The key point is for this to be the case, things would have had to have moved pretty fast, and we have nothing but rumour and the fact that Ukrainians have been pushing in this area and Vysokopillya is a bit of a salient, and thus vulnerable to envelopment.

My current take home is that encirclement isn't likely, but the possibility the position might be abandoned due to threat of encirclement (as happened at Malaya Rohan, Trostyanets and numerous places north of Kyiv) shouldn't be ruled out.

Regardless of encirclement status, the claims that two thousand Russians are involved are very dubious. There's no way there's two thousand of the f.ckers in Vysokopillya, given how few troops they have for the Kherson front in general.
It's a bit stronger than that in the thread I linked one post to.

It looks as though his reading of the map might have lead TPYXA to "make it clickbait"
Sorry, yes, I had read his thread, but was posting in a real hurry and may not have come across as I intended to. TPYXA are not a reliable source - there was a post of theirs doing the rounds recently citing the Financial Times reporting that ATACMS was being sent, but no such FT report existed, for example - and if, as he suspects, the rumours of encirclement come through that route, we can assume there's no encirclement.

As it stands, there's no evidence for encirclement. Ukrainian official pronouncements re: the Kherson front usually run a day or two late for OPSEC reasons. More solid sources put Vysokopillya in a salient, with Ukrainians occupying ground for about 2/3 to 3/4 of a circle around it. If Ukrainian troops advance, we could see Vysokopillya evacuated.

And claims of two thousand Russians encircled are clearly not true as there's no way there's two thousand of them in Vysokopillya to begin with.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:16 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 3:09 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:04 pm
meanwhile the NASA FIRMS data looks interesting

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z

lots of fires now in the occupied South
Useful website, now bookmarked, thanks
FIRMS is a very useful resource and one of the most popular remote sensing tools for conflict OSINT. However, there are lots of sources of fires other than shelling, and apparently southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are very dry and prone to grass fires in summer.

However, allowing for that, there's still been a fascinating shift in the last few weeks. Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions has fallen radically. It corresponds to the period in which M31 rockets were introduced, first with M142 HIMARS then M270 MLRS. It really does look right now like the Russians are short of artillery ammunition.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:30 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:16 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 3:09 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 2:04 pm
meanwhile the NASA FIRMS data looks interesting

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .5,47.4,7z

lots of fires now in the occupied South
Useful website, now bookmarked, thanks
FIRMS is a very useful resource and one of the most popular remote sensing tools for conflict OSINT. However, there are lots of sources of fires other than shelling, and apparently southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are very dry and prone to grass fires in summer.

However, allowing for that, there's still been a fascinating shift in the last few weeks. Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions has fallen radically. It corresponds to the period in which M31 rockets were introduced, first with M142 HIMARS then M270 MLRS. It really does look right now like the Russians are short of artillery ammunition.
Indeed. It was striking how much it has fallen off in the East, where Russia has been concentrating its attacks at the same time that there are more fires behind Russian lines in the South, which is more strategically important.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:14 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:30 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:16 pm
However, allowing for that, there's still been a fascinating shift in the last few weeks. Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions has fallen radically. It corresponds to the period in which M31 rockets were introduced, first with M142 HIMARS then M270 MLRS. It really does look right now like the Russians are short of artillery ammunition.
Indeed. It was striking how much it has fallen off in the East, where Russia has been concentrating its attacks at the same time that there are more fires behind Russian lines in the South, which is more strategically important.
Yes. Russia's advances in the east basically followed the same pattern

1) Mass firepower against dug in Ukrainian lines.
2) Send in company sized reconnaissance in force, often of occupation militia or Wagner group irregulars
If they get shot up by defenders, return to step 1
3) If they don't get shot up, move up, consolidate, then repeat the process on the next line, which might be only a km or so away

Clearing the enemy out of the way with artillery and following up with minimal fighting has been attempted since artillery was invented. It seldom works. It was how the Somme was meant to work - and we all know how that went. But with enough concentration of firepower in space and time, it can be done, so long as the attacker has a substantial advantage in firepower, and doesn't care how many are killed on these recons in force.

Destroying depots with M31 rockets hasn't just destroyed a lot of actual ammunition. It's destroyed Russia's ability - at least until they can try and adapt around it - to concentrate ammunition in space and time.

Meanwhile the Ukrainians are deploying a lot of firepower in Kherson oblast.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:27 pm

There's been a lot of positive noises lately about the possibility of equipping Ukraine with western aircraft. Two sorts of aircraft have been mentioned - "fighter jets" and A10s.

"fighter jets" probably means F16s, but it could also mean F15s, F18s. Given this is chatter from the American side, realistically these are the possibilities. F35s are only likely if some event causes a contract to fall through, and even then not likely, and while the USAF does want to retire some of its oldest F22s, I doubt there's any chance of them going to Ukraine.

These are all very good planes, and realistically beat anything Ukraine has, and most things Russia has. Crucially, they bring airframes fully integrated with western ordnance. They have lookdown/shootdown radars, and AMRAAMS - long range fire and forget missiles. That means that Russian Su-25s and helicopters will be in danger even from a jet well on the Ukrainian side of the lines. They also all carry extensive options for air to ground - especially the F15 - and adding AGM65 Mavericks, Paveways, JDAMs or even Small Diameter Bombs to the arsenal would be a great option for Ukraine to add precision strike capability. Additionally, AGM-88 HARM - which homes in on enemy radars to either blow them up or at least force them to switch off and hide - would be a real boon.

A10s are a different kettle of fish. They've faced a lot of criticism as a design, and at least some of it is justified. However, if one looks at what Ukraine has, adding A10s still really improves the situation. Ukraine already uses a lot of Su-25s. The A10 is roughly the American equivalent of that old Warsaw Pact jet, in that it is a subsonic armoured plane designed for ground attack. Ukraine reports having more pilots than planes. The A10 is easy to fly, apparently, so could quickly increase the numbers of planes in service with Ukraine. The A10 is visually distinctive, reducing the risk of friendly fire for MANPADS. Though US doctrine makes little use of makeshift runways, the A10 can operate from suitable stretches of motorway. The A10 is also able to carry a lot of western weapons. Ukrainian SU-25s are using unguided rockets ranging from 80mm to >300mm, but the tactics they use - necessary for self protection and also used by the Russians - do not allow accurate fire. The same tactics with an A10 could deliver guided bombs, or APKWS rockets from conventional 70mm rocket pods. If troops on the ground are equipped with laser designators, an A10 could deliver accurate strikes, including on moving targets, without really going into MANPADS range of the enemy, and is well suited to flying below the radar.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bolo » Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:42 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:16 pm
FIRMS is a very useful resource and one of the most popular remote sensing tools for conflict OSINT. However, there are lots of sources of fires other than shelling, and apparently southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are very dry and prone to grass fires in summer.
Conversely, cloud cover can sometimes stop FIRMS from detecting a fire.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jul 22, 2022 8:04 pm

Loitering munition news;

New aid package from USA includes lots more "Phoenix Ghost", no more Switchblade300. Ukrainian reports suggest latter was underwhelming. Not that it was bad, per se, but that it was in the wrong war. Perfect for SOF patrolling against militants and insurgents, but not too good for large scale conventioanl war. Criticism was range, but mostly warhead being too small to damage vehicles. One presumes the mysterious Phoenix Ghost, whatever it is, has a better warhead.

Polish-supplied Warmate loitering munitions were used to pick off Russian Grad positions and troop positions within the confines of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant grounds. The Russians, of course, should not be using such a position as a shield, but the loitering munitions were small and precise enough to avoid risking the safety of the plant.

The big British aid package announced appears to be a reannouncement of previous promises, perhaps because they are now actually being delivered. It includes a lot of loitering munitions of unspecified type, and it's not clear what kind they are.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:28 pm

Given the impact of a handful of HIMARS systems in Ukraine, Poland's order of 500 must be a significant deterrent to Russia.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:44 am

A bridge across the Inhulets, near the mouth of that river where it meets the Dnipro, has gained some perforation. Though HIMARS was claimed as the culprit, the damage looks more like that inflicted by 155mm shells, as happened with the Antonivsky bridge.

And I'm seeing claims made extremely recently - not yet had a chance to percolate and be evaluated - of explosions in the direction of the dam in Nova Kakhovka, possibly targetting the bridge above the dam.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 23, 2022 8:37 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:44 am
A bridge across the Inhulets, near the mouth of that river where it meets the Dnipro, has gained some perforation. Though HIMARS was claimed as the culprit, the damage looks more like that inflicted by 155mm shells, as happened with the Antonivsky bridge.

And I'm seeing claims made extremely recently - not yet had a chance to percolate and be evaluated - of explosions in the direction of the dam in Nova Kakhovka, possibly targetting the bridge above the dam.
Changing my take on the Inhulets bridge. The holes in it are quite a bit larger, and there are fragments of something that at least look a bit like rocket fragments and are claimed as such. Also, having checked more properly, I don't think 155mm would have the range for a strike like that.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 23, 2022 2:26 pm

Russians are still using the Inhulets bridge. The damage consists of a neat line of holes approx ten metres long along the centreline. Russian equipment was seen crossing it in large quantity, heading east - ie retreating towards Nova Kakhovka.

Given that the Ukrainians could just as easily have drawn a line with two metre spacings across the bridge, I think they may be trying to prompt a retreat rather than trap all the Russians.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 23, 2022 6:05 pm

The Juxtaposition of news that Ukrainians are reporting deaths among their soldiers have fallen to just a fifth of what they were before HIMARS arrived and America denying the longer ranged ammunition for said launchers is absolutely infuriating.

As is the number of Ukrainians who died while America dithered over sending HIMARS in the first place.

Stop self deterring. Start thinking about more than just the next few weeks.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sat Jul 23, 2022 6:16 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 6:05 pm
The Juxtaposition of news that Ukrainians are reporting deaths among their soldiers have fallen to just a fifth of what they were before HIMARS arrived and America denying the longer ranged ammunition for said launchers is absolutely infuriating.

As is the number of Ukrainians who died while America dithered over sending HIMARS in the first place.

Stop self deterring. Start thinking about more than just the next few weeks.
Exactly.

Russia has (again) showed that it doesn't negotiate in good faith, with the attacks on Odesa, and we need to shift the Russian munitions dumps back another couple of hundred kilometres as well as making Sevastopol dangerous as a military port.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Matatouille » Sat Jul 23, 2022 6:30 pm

My hope is that the US public refusal to send the long range stuff is bluff, to make sure that there is an abundance of valuable otherwise mobile targets at anchor in Sevastopol and outside of hardened shelters on the airfields of Crimea / other occupied areas. These could become the targets of a surprise overwhelming volley and greatly affect the force that Russia can project into the entire Black Sea to blockade and attack Ukraine, and deplete RU air power more widely. Then the fixed targets like the bridge and logistics dumps can be picked off in subsequent strikes as has been done with the shorter range missiles so successfully. Wishful thinking? Probably given the general short sightedness of Western support thus far, but with the mood music changing to longer term projects like supplying entirely new aircraft types to Ukraine, I have hope.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jul 24, 2022 3:50 pm

So it appears there's another downside to repurposing S300 air defence missiles as crude ground attack ones, aside from the cost, inaccuracy and moral abyss of using them on civilians, and that's that it makes them nice and visible to counterbattery radar.

Reportedly one such system has been destroyed in Kherson oblast after firing on Mykolaiv, and there are images. While they look like an S300, I'm not very good at such ID and thus won't vouch for them yet.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jul 24, 2022 7:02 pm

With Ukraine indeed hitting the bridge over the lock at the Nova Kakhovka dam, as well as more hits on the Antonivsky road bridge, and also hitting the railway line that leads to the Nova Kakhovka dam a little west of Melitopol, Russia's logistics situation in Kherson is not good. They are staging pontoon segments in the Dnipro, though whether they intend to set up a bridge or use them as rafts is not clear.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:36 am

Looks like the Russians aren't bothering too much with fatigue life of their barrels.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 7329539073
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:32 am

jimbob wrote:
Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:36 am
Looks like the Russians aren't bothering too much with fatigue life of their barrels.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 7329539073
The 2S7 is, in many ways, a weapon from a former age of warfare. Though commonly described as a howitzer, it isn't. It's a full length gun (56 calibre, in fact, which makes it more than eleven metres long), and it's in a calibre larger than almost anything else remaining in service. Using the older system of classifying artillery into field, medium and heavy/siege, it is one of the only types in the world that fits in the heavy/siege category (155mm is used in the way one would use a medium gun, while field guns are also getting rare, but the British L118/119 - now also in Ukrainian hands - is an example).

And one thing that was always the case with heavy artillery is short barrel life. We're talking hundreds of rounds, while modern 155mm barrels last for many thousands. It used to be the case that large guns had their barrels re-lined, meaning the replacement of the innermost part, including the rifling, which would involve boring the gun out and shrinking it onto a new liner. I don't know if 2S7s can be relined, or rely on entirely new tubes.

The forces contained by that barrel are colossal. It's got to accelerate a hundred kilograms of steel and high explosive to more than twice the speed of sound in the space of eleven metres. That means high pressures, and it's not just friction that is the issue, but the effect of the very hot gasses that drive the shell. As the rifling starts to wear, the projectile can start to wobble. If it wobbles too much, parts that weren't meant to drag along the rifling can end up doing so. All it takes is a small increase in the shell's reluctance to go along the barrel, and the pressure of all that propellant can easily overwhelm the barrel.

I can't imagine being near a 2S7 barrel explosion would have been good for the crew. It's a weapon so powerful that it has an alarm to warn people it is going to fire, because being anywhere near the muzzle end would expose the operators to dangerous levels of blast, and that's when it's functioning normally.

And one more thing to remember; the Ukrainian side has relied heavily on their own 2S7s, both for long range strike before HIMARS arrived, and for counter-battery fire. It excels at the latter, as it outranges every other artillery gun in the war, and hits hard enough to destroy armoured SPGs (there's footage of the effects of one firing against a pair of Russian Msta SPGs. Though several rounds are fired, it appears that only one round hit close enough to inflict serious damage, and that that one round knocked out both SPGs). Unfortunately, it is unlikely anyone assisting Ukraine can rustle up any more 203mm barrels. They are just too large to be made on equipment designed for making 155mm or smaller barrels, and gun barrels need to be turned on special lathes that need to be large enough, and likewise subjected to autofrettage, where the inner part of the gun is subject to such pressure it goes past its elastic limit, imparting useful stresses into the gun. The machinery for those operations won't be available for replacement 2S7 barrels. So Ukraine's 2S7s will probably have to retire at some point soon. They will be wearing out to the point they eventually will not be safe to fire, nor accurate enough to be useful. The west needs to recognise the need to replace that capability, which, given the western lack of 203mm, means accurate rocket artillery.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 25, 2022 4:55 pm

This is allegedly from a captured BMP.

I'm not sure why the Ukrainias sawed it in two, but if it's genuine, it's not a good advertisement for Russian precision engineering.

https://twitter.com/GenerMo/status/1551 ... KnzR-IULvQ
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:23 pm

Slovakia is talking seriously about transferring their Mig-29s (reportedly 11 of them) to Ukraine soon, if alternative air cover can be arranged. Now would be the time to think about rushing to integrate Brimstone, JDAMs, or any other possible western precision munition. I mean if Brimstone can be installed on what appears to be a catering van, then...

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin_B » Tue Jul 26, 2022 12:06 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:23 pm
I mean if Brimstone can be installed on what appears to be a catering van, then...
... then every catering van (every van in general) becomes a target for the Russians?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jul 26, 2022 9:14 am

Martin_B wrote:
Tue Jul 26, 2022 12:06 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:23 pm
I mean if Brimstone can be installed on what appears to be a catering van, then...
... then every catering van (every van in general) becomes a target for the Russians?
There's no suggestion they are disguising the vehicles as civilian vehicles, more that they are a) using an available chassis and b) disguising them as military supply trucks. No suggestion whatsoever these aren't in military colours.

My suggestion was more of an "if you can fit Brimstone onto a random off-the-shelf chassis, given there's a motnh or so before those Migs even come out of use, can you fit Brimstone to those MiGs?"

And if the datalink issues to the pilot are too difficult to overcome, there's still the option of JDAMs and Small Diameter Bombs to attack fixed positions with pre-loaded coordinates, and the entire class of weapons that are guided by semi-active laser homing, as ground troops could be issued the lasers and the MiGs simply release the weapons at the right coordinates.

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