COVID-19

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Blackcountryboy
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Blackcountryboy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:50 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:35 pm
You seem to forget the virus needs another human to come along and meet it. The definition of remote is the lack of humans. The virus prefers the local park.
The instruction to avoid National Parks came after last weekend when vast crowds of visited.

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lpm
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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:55 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:39 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:35 pm
You seem to forget the virus needs another human to come along and meet it. The definition of remote is the lack of humans. The virus prefers the local park.
Curbar Edge *is* a honeypot.

On a normal weekend, it's busier than most parks.
No it isn't, in humans per acre.

If you need a drone to spot people, it's not busy.
I'll miss him after he's died in the pandemic

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jimbob » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:56 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:55 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:39 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:35 pm
You seem to forget the virus needs another human to come along and meet it. The definition of remote is the lack of humans. The virus prefers the local park.
Curbar Edge *is* a honeypot.

On a normal weekend, it's busier than most parks.
No it isn't, in humans per acre.

If you need a drone to spot people, it's not busy.
That's during the lockdown
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:02 pm

It occured to me today that the ongoing lack of bogroll in our local stores might not just be due to hoarders. It could be the effect of a population-level redistribution from workplace-based shits to domestic settings, which is presumably accompanied by a switch from wholesale to retail supplies of toilet paper.

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Martin Y
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin Y » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:55 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:39 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:35 pm
You seem to forget the virus needs another human to come along and meet it. The definition of remote is the lack of humans. The virus prefers the local park.
Curbar Edge *is* a honeypot.

On a normal weekend, it's busier than most parks.
No it isn't, in humans per acre.

If you need a drone to spot people, it's not busy.
The trouble with national parks like Snowdonia is that while there's a f.ckload of acreage, everyone is on the paths. Plenty of area for looking at but for walking on, topologically, they're more one-dimensional.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:33 pm

And only two toilets at the bottom of the Pyg Track...

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Martin Y
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin Y » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:38 pm

What continuously pisses me off about news reports is typified by the latest BBC headline: "UK deaths rise by more than 100 in a day". Yes. And?

A number of people have died.
A number of people have been tested.
A number of people have the virus.

Is that a big number? Is it a surprising number? Good surprising or bad surprising? Give me some f.cking context. Show me a graph, for pity's sake. Put other countries on it too.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:59 pm

science_fox wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:22 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:18 pm
f.ck, this is ludicrous from the police. Harassing people walking a dog in remote areas miles from other people. These people are not going against government guidelines.

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status ... 1503882241
Yes they are. It is blatantly unnecessary travel. The issue is containment. Keeping virus hotspots local. From the cruise ship we are looking at 17 day viability. Even in non-ideal condtions its longer than expected: On styles, gates, bins, shops fuel stations. Each one an opportunity for virus to move from one town/city/hamlet/suburb to another.

Yes it's unprecedented restrictions. That's the time we're in. Stay home stay local.
If they don't get their act together with PPE for the NHS, though, it will spread through the regions anyway when infected patients are moved from overcapacity London hospitals.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by badger » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:16 pm

apparently BoJo lost his nerve. Herd Immunity is where it's at. And keeping the economy going. We have enough ventilators. And the old folk were going to die anyway. Oh, and 'superforcasters' saw this all coming (I sh.t you not).

torygraph's sherelle jacobs

It's paywalled, so here's an excerpt (apparently it was initially published with specific reference to Dominic Cummings Herd Immunity Strategy. But his name has been removed.
Boris Johnson risks being flattened by an obsolete ideology crumbling under the weight of its own contradictions.

Beyond the slam of lockdown, does one detect the gentle quivering of a Prime Minister who has lost his nerve? What irony that Boris Johnson’s opponents have failed to pick up on this weakness. In their desperation to whip up hysteria against No 10’s “insufficient” coronavirus response, the liberal media has missed what could prove the century’s biggest scoop.

Namely that, faced with the protestations of the London bubble, the PM has jettisoned the only sensible strategy for dealing with the biggest global crisis since the Second World War. To put lockdown in the most cynical terms, the Government has decided to trash the economy rather than expose itself to political criticism. Unless Mr Johnson U-turns, the fallout could be cataclysmic.

Just a couple of weeks ago, the signs that our new Government would not resort to the same clunky damage control as other countries were reasonable. While Italy shooed people into their homes to stem all infections, the UK’s approach seemed more nuanced – getting the most vulnerable to self-isolate, while allowing lower risk people to get infected on a scale that wouldn’t overwhelm the NHS.

Through this “herd immunity” strategy, a resurgence of the virus after it had seemingly peaked would be avoided. The approach was creepy, clinical and completely correct.

For a flicker, the Government seemed willing to withstand the paroxysms of its opponents and the shivers of its sympathists to take this long-termist course of action. Yes, it gambled on strong assumptions. But with leadership and clever use of numerical probability scale methods – which incidentally helped a clutch of obscure US superforecasters to actually predict Covid-19 – they may have pulled it off.

Instead, No 10 blinked, ditching herd immunity for an Imperial College research paper, which warned that hundreds of thousands could die without immediate, draconian action. It preposterously argued that lockdown may have to continue for as long as 18 months, until a vaccine is found. This despite the fact there is no scientific consensus (a rival paper claims a few weeks of lockdown may be sufficient).

Its recommendations also entail just as many risks and assumptions as the herd immunity strategy. In its assessment that 500,000 could die if the Government did nothing, the paper did not adequately address the question of how many of these victims would die anyway within a short period of something else.

Its modelling may also have underestimated the NHS’s ability to improve its intensive care capacity (the UK has just okayed medical ventilators that could equip the health service with 30,000 machines). Nor does it factor in the non-coronavirus deaths resulting from lockdown, like suicides.

So why has the PM traded in one controversial strategy for another that is, at the very least, equally vulnerable to deep criticism? Because the same old managerial elite dysfunction that got the world into this mess lingers beneath the surface of virtually all governments, like an undiagnosed cancer; this makes it impossible for them to defeat a simple virus, much like a Covid-19 victim with an “underlying illness”.

Thus “doing the right thing at the right time” has proved no match for wails about the need to be seen to be “doing whatever it takes”. And thus Mr Johnson, and other leaders, have ignored the unquantifiable damage of their actions (from the sinking of the world economy to the sacrifice of the global middle class) in order to meet spurious quantifiable targets.

There is a twist, though this time it’s of limited comfort. Rumours are aswirl that they are orchestrating herd immunity by stealth. The story goes that everything from low enforcement of lockdown to the dispersal of asymptomatic school children into family homes, is part of the plan. Critics will call this saving face. But, if true, it hits on the curious blind spot of a so-called populist: Mr Johnson’s insecure reluctance to square with the public.

He should pay heed to Trump, who is raring to get America up and running by Easter lest the cure be worst than the disease. Premature perhaps, but at least he is forcing Americans to frankly debate the trade-offs: millions of livelihoods versus thousands of lives.


One can’t help but wonder whether coronavirus is the West’s Berlin Wall moment. Liberal managerialism is collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions much in the same way communism did 30 years ago.

In puffing about climate change while ignoring threats like bio-engineered pandemics and nuclear war, UN junketeers, EU sycophants and Westminster charlatans and all the other globalist risk managers have shown themselves to be incapable of prioritising risks.

In blowing up the world economy, they have also shown themselves to be incapable of managing risks without exposing the planet to even greater dangers.

Most chilling of all perhaps, as this pandemic demonstrates, when managerial elites fail, they fall back on soft totalitarianism and the surveillance state to crawl their countries out of the messes they themselves have, through their sheer incompetence, created.

In the long term, total systems change in Britain now looks more inevitable than ever; we may look back on coronavirus as even more of a catalyst than Brexit in time. But for now, Mr Johnson’s short-term choice in coming weeks is clear: back herd immunity or be prepared to fall with the infirm herd of global elites, who will not survive this disgraceful fiasco.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by bob sterman » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:35 pm

Regarding how the UK is counting deaths - the statements from the DHSC refer to the deaths of "hospitalised" patients...

E.g.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/12 ... 9039396872

"As of 5pm on 25 March, of those hospitalised in the UK, 578 have sadly died."

So where do the cases that have died in the community figure in the statistics? There were a couple of stories in the news today about younger adults who had died at home, apparently from COVID-19. If there is post-mortem testing - would they even show in the figures as they are not from the group of patients "hospitalised in the UK"? Presumably there will be elderly people dying in the community but not making the news.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:46 pm

badger wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:16 pm
apparently BoJo lost his nerve. Herd Immunity is where it's at. And keeping the economy going. We have enough ventilators. And the old folk were going to die anyway. Oh, and 'superforcasters' saw this all coming (I sh.t you not).

torygraph's sherelle jacobs

It's paywalled, so here's an excerpt (apparently it was initially published with specific reference to Dominic Cummings Herd Immunity Strategy. But his name has been removed.
Boris Johnson risks being flattened by an obsolete ideology crumbling under the weight of its own contradictions.

Beyond the slam of lockdown, does one detect the gentle quivering of a Prime Minister who has lost his nerve? What irony that Boris Johnson’s opponents have failed to pick up on this weakness. In their desperation to whip up hysteria against No 10’s “insufficient” coronavirus response, the liberal media has missed what could prove the century’s biggest scoop.

Namely that, faced with the protestations of the London bubble, the PM has jettisoned the only sensible strategy for dealing with the biggest global crisis since the Second World War. To put lockdown in the most cynical terms, the Government has decided to trash the economy rather than expose itself to political criticism. Unless Mr Johnson U-turns, the fallout could be cataclysmic.

Just a couple of weeks ago, the signs that our new Government would not resort to the same clunky damage control as other countries were reasonable. While Italy shooed people into their homes to stem all infections, the UK’s approach seemed more nuanced – getting the most vulnerable to self-isolate, while allowing lower risk people to get infected on a scale that wouldn’t overwhelm the NHS.

Through this “herd immunity” strategy, a resurgence of the virus after it had seemingly peaked would be avoided. The approach was creepy, clinical and completely correct.

For a flicker, the Government seemed willing to withstand the paroxysms of its opponents and the shivers of its sympathists to take this long-termist course of action. Yes, it gambled on strong assumptions. But with leadership and clever use of numerical probability scale methods – which incidentally helped a clutch of obscure US superforecasters to actually predict Covid-19 – they may have pulled it off.

Instead, No 10 blinked, ditching herd immunity for an Imperial College research paper, which warned that hundreds of thousands could die without immediate, draconian action. It preposterously argued that lockdown may have to continue for as long as 18 months, until a vaccine is found. This despite the fact there is no scientific consensus (a rival paper claims a few weeks of lockdown may be sufficient).

Its recommendations also entail just as many risks and assumptions as the herd immunity strategy. In its assessment that 500,000 could die if the Government did nothing, the paper did not adequately address the question of how many of these victims would die anyway within a short period of something else.

Its modelling may also have underestimated the NHS’s ability to improve its intensive care capacity (the UK has just okayed medical ventilators that could equip the health service with 30,000 machines). Nor does it factor in the non-coronavirus deaths resulting from lockdown, like suicides.

So why has the PM traded in one controversial strategy for another that is, at the very least, equally vulnerable to deep criticism? Because the same old managerial elite dysfunction that got the world into this mess lingers beneath the surface of virtually all governments, like an undiagnosed cancer; this makes it impossible for them to defeat a simple virus, much like a Covid-19 victim with an “underlying illness”.

Thus “doing the right thing at the right time” has proved no match for wails about the need to be seen to be “doing whatever it takes”. And thus Mr Johnson, and other leaders, have ignored the unquantifiable damage of their actions (from the sinking of the world economy to the sacrifice of the global middle class) in order to meet spurious quantifiable targets.

There is a twist, though this time it’s of limited comfort. Rumours are aswirl that they are orchestrating herd immunity by stealth. The story goes that everything from low enforcement of lockdown to the dispersal of asymptomatic school children into family homes, is part of the plan. Critics will call this saving face. But, if true, it hits on the curious blind spot of a so-called populist: Mr Johnson’s insecure reluctance to square with the public.

He should pay heed to Trump, who is raring to get America up and running by Easter lest the cure be worst than the disease. Premature perhaps, but at least he is forcing Americans to frankly debate the trade-offs: millions of livelihoods versus thousands of lives.


One can’t help but wonder whether coronavirus is the West’s Berlin Wall moment. Liberal managerialism is collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions much in the same way communism did 30 years ago.

In puffing about climate change while ignoring threats like bio-engineered pandemics and nuclear war, UN junketeers, EU sycophants and Westminster charlatans and all the other globalist risk managers have shown themselves to be incapable of prioritising risks.

In blowing up the world economy, they have also shown themselves to be incapable of managing risks without exposing the planet to even greater dangers.

Most chilling of all perhaps, as this pandemic demonstrates, when managerial elites fail, they fall back on soft totalitarianism and the surveillance state to crawl their countries out of the messes they themselves have, through their sheer incompetence, created.

In the long term, total systems change in Britain now looks more inevitable than ever; we may look back on coronavirus as even more of a catalyst than Brexit in time. But for now, Mr Johnson’s short-term choice in coming weeks is clear: back herd immunity or be prepared to fall with the infirm herd of global elites, who will not survive this disgraceful fiasco.
Come on someone must have a full house in the "Right wing blowhard f.ckwit" bingo, I'm just waiting on "EUSSR commisars" and "ZaNuLabour apparatchik".
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jaap » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:51 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:38 pm
What continuously pisses me off about news reports is typified by the latest BBC headline: "UK deaths rise by more than 100 in a day". Yes. And?

A number of people have died.
A number of people have been tested.
A number of people have the virus.

Is that a big number? Is it a surprising number? Good surprising or bad surprising? Give me some f.cking context. Show me a graph, for pity's sake. Put other countries on it too.
In Dutch news, with every daily number they say it's the largest increase so far, as if that is somehow unexpected.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:54 pm

Also they tend to seem surprised at how the number "leaps" each day. Would you rather be told about them one by one and not the total at the same time every day?
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:09 pm

What a terrible time to realise you have a sarcastic clap. :oops:
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:10 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:53 pm
https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca ... 002a.shtml

Andrea Crisanti, who ran the study in which the entire town of Vò got swabbed twice, is maybe best placed to know how many cases there actually are. He estimates 250,000 in Lombardy (of which 100,000 are asymptomatic) and 450,000 in the whole of Italy. This compared to the official number of 60,000.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -modelling
... our group recently published a rough analysis that suggested only 5–7% of people who’ve fallen ill with Covid-19 have been recorded as confirmed cases in the UK data
The rough analysis is at https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/ ... mates.html

(It doesn't look a whole lot more sophisticated than multiplying the number of reported cases by the ratio between the apparent CFR and the CFR in China.)
Last edited by shpalman on Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
molto tricky

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Re: COVID-19

Post by badger » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:12 pm

Little waster wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:46 pm

Come on someone must have a full house in the "Right wing blowhard f.ckwit" bingo, I'm just waiting on "EUSSR commisars" and "ZaNuLabour apparatchik".
I guess I'm still amazed at just how far alt-right the Telegraph has lurched. It's a tabloid paper now basically, as far as I can tell. Cummings is presumably their poster boy right now. They are lapping it up BTL, of course.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:41 pm

Article in Spanish on the poor quality of Chinese tests. Looks like they produce a lot of false negatives
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/ ... ionan.html

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Re: COVID-19

Post by plodder » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:38 pm

badger wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:12 pm
Little waster wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:46 pm

Come on someone must have a full house in the "Right wing blowhard f.ckwit" bingo, I'm just waiting on "EUSSR commisars" and "ZaNuLabour apparatchik".
I guess I'm still amazed at just how far alt-right the Telegraph has lurched. It's a tabloid paper now basically, as far as I can tell. Cummings is presumably their poster boy right now. They are lapping it up BTL, of course.
And the “herd immunity by stealth” line is utter bollocks if the thing about increased police powers is accurate

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Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:07 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:41 pm
Article in Spanish on the poor quality of Chinese tests. Looks like they produce a lot of false negatives
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/ ... ionan.html
Which is possibly why Chris Whitty et al have been reluctant on large-scale testing, until they know it’s reliable.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by badger » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:13 pm

plodder wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:38 pm
badger wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:12 pm
Little waster wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:46 pm

Come on someone must have a full house in the "Right wing blowhard f.ckwit" bingo, I'm just waiting on "EUSSR commisars" and "ZaNuLabour apparatchik".
I guess I'm still amazed at just how far alt-right the Telegraph has lurched. It's a tabloid paper now basically, as far as I can tell. Cummings is presumably their poster boy right now. They are lapping it up BTL, of course.
And the “herd immunity by stealth” line is utter bollocks if the thing about increased police powers is accurate
It's all utter bollocks, no?

The attempt to give BoJo that capability is especially laughable though.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:03 am

It's a similar tone that many on the American hard right are taking - summed up by someone on twitter, can't remember who, as "Do not my friends become addicted to life, it will take hold of you, and you will resent its absence"

Meanwhile, in the real world, the evidence strongly suggests that strong, early measures are ultimately better for the economy.

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin Y » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:14 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:03 am
It's a similar tone that many on the American hard right are taking - summed up by someone on twitter, can't remember who, as "Do not my friends become addicted to life, it will take hold of you, and you will resent its absence"...
Umm. What does that actually mean? You will resent the absence of being alive; what sort of slogan is that?

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Re: COVID-19

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:24 am

Martin Y wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:14 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:03 am
It's a similar tone that many on the American hard right are taking - summed up by someone on twitter, can't remember who, as "Do not my friends become addicted to life, it will take hold of you, and you will resent its absence"...
Umm. What does that actually mean? You will resent the absence of being alive; what sort of slogan is that?
It's a paraphrased quote from Mad Max - "Do not my friends become addicted to water, it will take hold of you, and you will resent its absence" - it's a villain blaming people for wanting the basic necessities, trying to make the fact that he's provided them with less than they need about them, and not him, more or less.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYtpU5b2ALk

TL;DR version - it's comparing them to an over the top villain

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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:05 am

jaap wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:51 pm
Martin Y wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:38 pm
What continuously pisses me off about news reports is typified by the latest BBC headline: "UK deaths rise by more than 100 in a day". Yes. And?

A number of people have died.
A number of people have been tested.
A number of people have the virus.

Is that a big number? Is it a surprising number? Good surprising or bad surprising? Give me some f.cking context. Show me a graph, for pity's sake. Put other countries on it too.
In Dutch news, with every daily number they say it's the largest increase so far, as if that is somehow unexpected.
One million years ago I ventured a similar opinion in this thread and had my arse handed to me by a proper scientist in the next post, so I would like to invite him to come and find fault with your logic too. :)

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Re: COVID-19

Post by dyqik » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:31 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:05 am
jaap wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:51 pm
Martin Y wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:38 pm
What continuously pisses me off about news reports is typified by the latest BBC headline: "UK deaths rise by more than 100 in a day". Yes. And?

A number of people have died.
A number of people have been tested.
A number of people have the virus.

Is that a big number? Is it a surprising number? Good surprising or bad surprising? Give me some f.cking context. Show me a graph, for pity's sake. Put other countries on it too.
In Dutch news, with every daily number they say it's the largest increase so far, as if that is somehow unexpected.
One million years ago I ventured a similar opinion in this thread and had my arse handed to me by a proper scientist in the next post, so I would like to invite him to come and find fault with your logic too. :)
There's no similarity there. You are confusing an expected exponential increase in numbers due to the virus spreading with the first known case of it spreading. One is entirely predictable because of statistics, and the other is the first data point that eventually becomes statistics.

One is the chain reaction, the other is the triggering of the chain reaction.

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