COVID-19

[Bird on a Fire]

I guess one difference is that Wuhan is a city of (?) 8m in a country of 1bn-plus. So vastly more support can be drafted in from other provinces to prop up the local healthcare system. Whereas a similar scale of outbreak in London would leave us far more stretched, even if the absolute numbers were similar.

Yes, a good point. Another difference being that the government in China actually cares about the people.

Because imprisoning the ophthalmist who raised the alarm says that so well.

I'm surprised they aren't just shipping all the infected people to Xinjiang to finish eradicating the Uighurs.

[shpalman]

... an appropriate sense of urgency as there's no update on the Italian department of health website since 6pm yesterday.

[mikeh]

... an appropriate sense of urgency as there's no update on the Italian department of health website since 6pm yesterday.

And as if by magic, it has now been updated

Once a day, at 6pm, by the looks of it? Which is prob fine, I assume any urgent updates during the day would be posted more immediately (though no idea if that's the case or not).

[shpalman]

... an appropriate sense of urgency as there's no update on the Italian department of health website since 6pm yesterday.

And as if by magic, it has now been updated

Once a day, at 6pm, by the looks of it? Which is prob fine, I assume any urgent updates during the day would be posted more immediately (though no idea if that's the case or not).

It was also being updated at 12 noon, yesterday and the day before at least.

[mikeh]

Fair enough.

Meanwhile, over here in Blighty, a new case that appears to be from person to person transmission in the UK. From a Dept of Health daily briefing-

• The virus was passed on in the UK but the original source of the virus is unclear.
• The patient was identified as part of the wider surveillance testing, which PHE started this week.
• We do not currently have complete understanding of the chain of transmission in this case, but there is no immediately identifiable link to overseas travel.

[sTeamTraen]

Meanwhile, over here in Blighty, a new case that appears to be from person to person transmission in the UK.

It's like a bingo card of meaningless milestones. The first UK citizen died of the virus today, but we're still waiting for the big one, the first British resident. If that's a man, we can then have the first UK resident woman to die. Then we can have the first British resident to catch the virus in the UK, followed by their opposite-sex counterpart. It's like the most tedious end of cricket statistics, but every time it enables the media to keep the fear on the front page.

[mikeh]

Meanwhile, over here in Blighty, a new case that appears to be from person to person transmission in the UK.

It's like a bingo card of meaningless milestones. The first UK citizen died of the virus today, but we're still waiting for the big one, the first British resident. If that's a man, we can then have the first UK resident woman to die. Then we can have the first British resident to catch the virus in the UK, followed by their opposite-sex counterpart. It's like the most tedious end of cricket statistics, but every time it enables the media to keep the fear on the front page.

From an epidemiological point of view, I'd describe the person to person transmission as rather important. New in-country transmission in a new country, important milestone.

And deaths reported for the first time in a new country (albeit on a cruise ship, so yes still a corner of your bingo card still to be dabbed) also not meaningless from a public health point of view.

Therefore, given the bingo analogy here, I'm going to conclude this with "FALSE CALL!". Hope you enjoy the bingo fanatics now glaring at you for interrupting their serious business of winning the £100 Mecca Big One.

[Woodchopper]

As I said before, it will have a class impact - working people like supermarket delivery drivers will still be made to work, going from infected house to infected house. I'm going to be merrily working from home, but I'll still want my bins collected and electricity to stay on.

For example: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51665312

[shpalman]

I'm surprised that Italians aren't going on about how actually the virus was invented in Italy and you should make sure you catch that version and not the Chinese ripoff copy since that's their attitude to most other things.

``Let’s not forget that we were the first country in Europe to isolate the virus''

Italian researchers at the Sacco hospital in Milan appear to have identified two variations of coronavirus, including a local variant that may have circulated for several weeks before the first identified case in northern Italy

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

If it's been around since late January / early February then I expect I've already had it.

[dyqik]

As I said before, it will have a class impact - working people like supermarket delivery drivers will still be made to work, going from infected house to infected house. I'm going to be merrily working from home, but I'll still want my bins collected and electricity to stay on.

For example: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51665312

Something that's even more if an issue in the US, of course.

Still, the Republicans have a cure for the worst symptoms of coronavirus - tax cuts to shore up the falling stock market.

[headshot]

I'm surprised that Italians aren't going on about how actually the virus was invented in Italy and you should make sure you catch that version and not the Chinese ripoff copy since that's their attitude to most other things.

``Let’s not forget that we were the first country in Europe to isolate the virus''

Italian researchers at the Sacco hospital in Milan appear to have identified two variations of coronavirus, including a local variant that may have circulated for several weeks before the first identified case in northern Italy

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

If it's been around since late January / early February then I expect I've already had it.

I’ve always said that Swing dancing is the perfect disease vector.

[shpalman]

Even if official updates are only going to come up on salute.gov.it at 6 pm daily instead of 12 noon and 6 pm, the number is going to get quietly revised overnight, because it's now at 888 and it was only at 821 yesterday evening at 6pm...

Of those 888 positives, we have 412 told to self-isolate at home, 345 in hospital with symptoms, 64 in intensive care, 21 deaths, and 46 recoveries. 531 of the positives are in Lombardy. There have been one or two positives close to here.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus
If it's been around since late January / early February then I expect I've already had it.

I’ve always said that Swing dancing is the perfect disease vector.

Innit. I feel like I've basically been going from one cold to another without fully recovering since November. In fact this week of enforced inactivity (not even allowed to do lessons; did I mention I'm teaching now? I should start a thread again; no gym either) has led to me feeling physically better than I have in a long time. I think we should do this every year instead of carnival.

I was at a swing evening in Milan two weeks ago. I even danced with a follower from Shanghai. But I haven't heard of anyone I know personally having to go to hospital or even self-isolate; I only seem to know one person from Codogno and that's via work, not dancing.

WHY HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE BEEN TO CODOGNO it's a town with 16000 inhabitants ffs.

[lpm]

It's great news there hasn't been a single case in Indonesia. A population of 264 million, had direct flights to Wuhan, lots of continuing links to the rest of China - but Covid-19 just isn't there. Nowhere. This is incredibly reassuring.

And nothing in Myanmar and Laos. Only a handful of cases in Cambodia and Vietnam. Things are going very well in these regions.

[bob sterman]

It's great news there hasn't been a single case in Indonesia. A population of 264 million, had direct flights to Wuhan, lots of continuing links to the rest of China - but Covid-19 just isn't there. Nowhere. This is incredibly reassuring.

And nothing in Myanmar and Laos. Only a handful of cases in Cambodia and Vietnam. Things are going very well in these regions.

Indeed - I think Indonesia have found the best way to avoid infections. Adopt an inverted posture and bury your head in the sand. If your head is in the sand - the virus can't get in.

[dyqik]

It's great news there hasn't been a single case in Indonesia. A population of 264 million, had direct flights to Wuhan, lots of continuing links to the rest of China - but Covid-19 just isn't there. Nowhere. This is incredibly reassuring.

And nothing in Myanmar and Laos. Only a handful of cases in Cambodia and Vietnam. Things are going very well in these regions.

In other news, despite reports of large numbers of feral cats in the area, I saw no black cats in my coal cellar last night.

[Brightonian]

France bans all gatherings of more than 5,000 people:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... d-11946034

Sporting events and music concerts could be affected.

Ya don't say???? EDIT: actually, they could perform events behind closed doors, and televise and/or stream.

Thank the FSM I cancelled a trip to France I'd planned for next week (don't want to get trapped anywhere).

Am concerned about a housemate's potential finances (in the UK). She's very much on the breadline, and her job involves physically assisting in the setup of major events. If she doesn't work, she doesn't get paid.

[Bird on a Fire]

Am concerned about a housemate's potential finances (in the UK). She's very much on the breadline, and her job involves physically assisting in the setup of major events. If she doesn't work, she doesn't get paid.

I don't know what your relationship with her is like, but if I were in her situation I would probably appreciate a friendly mention of this. I'd either be worrying about it myself, or in denial.

[Bird on a Fire]

More fun news from the USA

Two surveys released this week show that the Corona's brand is suffering from negative buzz.

5W Public Relations said that 38% of Americans wouldn't buy Corona "under any circumstances" because of the outbreak, and another 14% said they wouldn't order a Corona in public. The survey encompasses polling from 737 beer drinkers in the United States.

In another survey conducted by YouGov, the firm found consumers' intent to purchase Corona fell to its lowest level in two years. The survey also showed that Corona's buzz score, a metric that that measures favorability, has dropped significantly since the beginning of the year.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/28/busi ... /index.htm

[Pucksoppet]

It's great news there hasn't been a single case in Indonesia. A population of 264 million, had direct flights to Wuhan, lots of continuing links to the rest of China - but Covid-19 just isn't there. Nowhere. This is incredibly reassuring.

And nothing in Myanmar and Laos. Only a handful of cases in Cambodia and Vietnam. Things are going very well in these regions.

I noticed the same oddities too. On the other hand, thinking optimistically, it could be that there are other factors, such as the general population being less susceptible for some reason or other; or the environment being inimical to this virus - some diseases are very climate/season specific and the difference in latitude between Wuhan and Indonesia might be relevant.

It is hard for me to think optimistically (or in Panglossian mode), though. It is not my usual habit.

[shpalman]

I'm surprised that Italians aren't going on about how actually the virus was invented in Italy and you should make sure you catch that version and not the Chinese ripoff copy since that's their attitude to most other things.

``Let’s not forget that we were the first country in Europe to isolate the virus''

``The Italian strain has nothing to do with the Chinese one. It's a virus from Padania.''

We're at 1049 positives in Italy. The test is now only being carried out on symptomatic patients of course, and then the asymptomatic ones (about half of them) are told just stay at home in self-isolation.

[raven]

I was at the GPs for a blood test yesterday. They have a check-in screen.

But if the alternative at busy times is a queue of people at reception booking in, will that be any safer?

There's usually a knot of poeple waiting at the check-in screen and at the reception desk. (You can't hand samples in to the screen or make a follow up appointment or ask it questions, so people are always going to gather at the desk anyway.) The only real difference is that you don't have to touch any surfaces if you just tell the receptionist you've arrived.

Friends of friends are in self isolation (contact with a confirmed case). Hand santiser sold out at Boots & Sainsburys today, which I suppose at least means the public health message on handwashing is getting through. Plenty of toilet roll & water still though, so we're not at full panic buying yet.

[Brightonian]

Interesting reading re "Case 31" in South Korea, the cause of the huge outbreak there: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEAL ... index.html

[mikeh]

Hand santiser sold out at Boots & Sainsburys today, which I suppose at least means the public health message on handwashing is getting through.

Doesn't mean they're using them though. Would imagine plenty will be stockpiled and a fair proportion never used and chucked in the bin in a years time.

Mother in law works in Boots, they had 120 on the shelves when they opened at 9am yesterday, by 10:30, sold out. In the end, put in a two-per-customer restriction, I think.

[sTeamTraen]

It's like a bingo card of meaningless milestones. The first UK citizen died of the virus today, but we're still waiting for the big one, the first British resident. If that's a man, we can then have the first UK resident woman to die. Then we can have the first British resident to catch the virus in the UK, followed by their opposite-sex counterpart. It's like the most tedious end of cricket statistics, but every time it enables the media to keep the fear on the front page.

From an epidemiological point of view, I'd describe the person to person transmission as rather important. New in-country transmission in a new country, important milestone.

And deaths reported for the first time in a new country (albeit on a cruise ship, so yes still a corner of your bingo card still to be dabbed) also not meaningless from a public health point of view.

Hmmm. If I live in Lille, France, which is more important --- the first case in France, which might be 1000km away, or the first case in Belgium, where I go shopping at the weekends?

Relatively open borders, and easy travel, are part of the reason why the virus has spread so far so quickly; it just seems a shame for the reporting to be delimited by the geographical limits of a "human community that (successfully) claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory" (Weber's --- IMO unimproveable --- definition of a state). Yes, there will be slightly different responses from each country's public health ministries, but this is a global problem and I find the media's bingo card approach rather sad.

[bjn]

Hand santiser sold out at Boots & Sainsburys today, which I suppose at least means the public health message on handwashing is getting through.

Doesn't mean they're using them though. Would imagine plenty will be stockpiled and a fair proportion never used and chucked in the bin in a years time.

Mother in law works in Boots, they had 120 on the shelves when they opened at 9am yesterday, by 10:30, sold out. In the end, put in a two-per-customer restriction, I think.

uk.camelcamelcamel.com tracks amazon prices. Hand sanitiser gel has gone crazy. 50ml bottles are now selling for £60!

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