COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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Millennie Al
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Millennie Al » Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:49 am

Giroliddy wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:53 pm
The UK Heath and Safety Executive (HSE) are the enforcing authority for health and safety in hospitals and operate a reporting line for possible breaches of health and safety in the workplace.
I've drafted the following, but I'm not sure if it is inappropriate to send at this time?
...
Send it. It's never too early as it avoids people claiming that relevant data was not gathered or preserved because they didn't know it would be needed.
Covid-19 - Don't catch it: don't spread it.

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:21 am

Little waster wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:34 am
The guardian has produced a "helpful" working from home guide.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -isolating

Tl;Dr version.
Take the thousands of pounds of cutting-edge IT devices you presumably have in the cupboard under the stairs, just behind the pile of old issues of People's Friends you've been stockpiling for just this moment.
Convert one of your many spare rooms (or artisanal shepherd's hut) into a home office, make sure your desk and chair are ergonomic from the range of options you have.
Deal with bored children by buying a neon "keep out" sign. Simples.

He says hunched up over the kitchen table on an old laptop with a noisy 6yo running around him.
And if you don't have thousands of pounds of cutting-edge IT devices simply buy some with the thousands of pounds of money you have just obtained for yourself

He says writing from a +10 year old desktop PC, still waiting for the new laptop which the company went on lockdown before sending me.
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Little waster
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:02 am

Good news everyone!

A mere 6 weeks after I started voluntarily self-isolating and 2 weeks into the formal lockdown I've received a letter from the PM!

Apparently there is some sort of pandemic going on you some of you might have heard about so I've been asked nicely to stay indoors for a bit if I wouldn't mind.

Thank god I got that timely bit of advice, I had planned to spend the long weekend wandering around licking door-handles (a long-standing LW Easter tradition). Money well spent I say, I encourage everybody to join me at 8pm tonight in shouting "Booooo-ris" out the window as loud as we can in support of our marvellous PM.
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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:39 am

Little waster wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:02 am
Good news everyone!

A mere 6 weeks after I started voluntarily self-isolating and 2 weeks into the formal lockdown I've received a letter from the PM!

Apparently there is some sort of pandemic going on you some of you might have heard about so I've been asked nicely to stay indoors for a bit if I wouldn't mind.

Thank god I got that timely bit of advice, I had planned to spend the long weekend wandering around licking door-handles (a long-standing LW Easter tradition). Money well spent I say, I encourage everybody to join me at 8pm tonight in shouting "Booooo-ris" out the window as loud as we can in support of our marvellous PM.
Pity that the moron who "wrote" it, currently in intensive care in St. Thomas's Hospital, didn't get it in time.

No wait not that kind of intensive care, this kind.
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Martin Y
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Martin Y » Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:04 pm

I just hope he didn't cough on all those letters he sent us.

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sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:56 pm

Little waster wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:02 am
A mere 6 weeks after I started voluntarily self-isolating and 2 weeks into the formal lockdown I've received a letter from the PM!
You might be surprised about the extent to which a few people (a) had no clue about the severity and (b) will take it more seriously if the government tells them directly. Many of those will be vulnerable over-80s.

I think I saw that the letter cost about £6m to send to 30m households, which at 20p each strikes me as amazingly cheap, and if it causes 1% of the population to change their behaviour, that's less than £10 each.
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Little waster
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Little waster » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:41 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:56 pm
Little waster wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:02 am
A mere 6 weeks after I started voluntarily self-isolating and 2 weeks into the formal lockdown I've received a letter from the PM!
You might be surprised about the extent to which a few people (a) had no clue about the severity and (b) will take it more seriously if the government tells them directly. Many of those will be vulnerable over-80s.

I think I saw that the letter cost about £6m to send to 30m households, which at 20p each strikes me as amazingly cheap, and if it causes 1% of the population to change their behaviour, that's less than £10 each.

As of March 1st, 97% of the British public was "aware" (whatever that means) of coronavirus, I imagine a further 6 weeks including 3 weeks of lockdown must have got through to most of the remainder. Whoever is still unaware by this point must be essentially unreachable.

A 1% impact for £6m may look a bargain, a 0.01% less so.

The letter itself (below), comes in at 2 sides of A4 (plus leaflets) and is mostly waffle, the key messages could probably have fit into three paragraphs, again we are supposed to think someone who hasn't managed to watch TV, look at a newspaper, listen to the radio, go on the internet or talk to another human in the last 6 weeks was liable to wade through that.

I am writing to you to update you on the steps we are taking to combat
coronavirus.

In just a few short weeks, everyday life in this country has changed dramatically.
We all feel the profound impact of coronavirus not just on ourselves, but on our
loved ones and our communities.

I understand completely the difficulties this disruption has caused to your lives,
businesses and jobs. But the action we have taken is absolutely necessary, for one
very simple reason.

If too many people become seriously unwell at one time, the NHS will be unable
to cope. This will cost lives. We must slow the spread of the disease, and reduce
the number of people needing hospital treatment in order to save as many lives as
possible.

That is why we are giving one simple instruction – you must stay at home.
You should not meet friends or relatives who do not live in your home. You may
only leave your home for very limited purposes, such as buying food and
medicine, exercising once a day and seeking medical attention. You can travel to
and from work but should work from home if you can.

When you do have to leave your home, you should ensure, wherever possible,
that you are two metres apart from anyone outside of your household.
These rules must be observed. So, if people break the rules, the police will issue
fines and disperse gatherings.

I know many of you will be deeply worried about the financial impact on you and
your family. The Government will do whatever it takes to help you make ends
meet and put food on the table.

The enclosed leaflet sets out more detail about the support available and the rules
you need to follow. You can also find the latest advice at gov.uk/coronavirus
From the start, we have sought to put in the right measures at the right time. We
will not hesitate to go further if that is what the scientific and medical advice tells
us we must do.

It’s important for me to level with you – we know things will get worse before
they get better. But we are making the right preparations, and the more we all
follow the rules, the fewer lives will be lost and the sooner life can return to
normal.

I want to thank everyone who is working flat out to beat the virus, in particular
the staff in our fantastic NHS and care sector across England, Scotland, Wales
and Northern Ireland. It has been truly inspirational to see our doctors, nurses and
other carers rise magnificently to the needs of the hour.

Thousands of retired doctors and nurses are returning to the NHS – and hundreds
of thousands of citizens are volunteering to help the most vulnerable. It is with
that great British spirit that we will beat coronavirus and we will beat it together.
That is why, at this moment of national emergency, I urge you, please, to stay at
home, protect the NHS and save lives.
Shamelessly recycling old jokes since 1952.

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shpalman
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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:42 pm

The past few days of Italy's total positives seem to me to fit a very slowly increasing exponential (the doubling time is 26 days) rather than a decrease.

But the numbers of patients in the ICU and in the hospital in general is decreasing (they are mainly recovering, not dying).

It's also true that there are many more swabs every day, compared to the peak in daily cases about 20 days ago. Back then, there was a new case for every 3-4 swabs taken and now it's more like a new case for 10-11 swabs taken. (It's annoying but the number of swabs doesn't easily correspond to number of people swabbed).

More people are being kept isolated at home rather than being admitted to hospital; I hope this means that milder cases are being picked up due to the swab capacity having been ramped up faster than cases increased, and not that the hospitals were oversaturated.
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sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:49 pm

Little waster wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:41 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:56 pm
You might be surprised about the extent to which a few people (a) had no clue about the severity and (b) will take it more seriously if the government tells them directly. Many of those will be vulnerable over-80s.

I think I saw that the letter cost about £6m to send to 30m households, which at 20p each strikes me as amazingly cheap, and if it causes 1% of the population to change their behaviour, that's less than £10 each.
As of March 1st, 97% of the British public was "aware" (whatever that means) of coronavirus, I imagine a further 6 weeks including 3 weeks of lockdown must have got through to most of the remainder. Whoever is still unaware by this point must be essentially unreachable.
I suspect most people here have very little idea about what life is like for the 1% (not the rich 1%).

A couple of people who did national service in their respective countries (not the UK) have told me some amazing stories about what they learned about their fellow countrymen [sic] when exposed to a truly random sample of them.
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AMS
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AMS » Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:26 pm

The leaflets might be a good way of getting through to elderly people with early stages of dementia. I'm just thinking back to when my gran was still alive - she would have been quite confused (and worried) about what she could and couldn't do. Something official, in writing, in her hands would have been re-read regularly for a reminder.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Pucksoppet » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:14 pm

AMS wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:26 pm
The leaflets might be a good way of getting through to elderly people with early stages of dementia. I'm just thinking back to when my gran was still alive - she would have been quite confused (and worried) about what she could and couldn't do. Something official, in writing, in her hands would have been re-read regularly for a reminder.
I take the Einsteinian view "...never commit to memory anything that can easily be looked up..." - on that basis, I like to have 'hard copy' that I can refer to, rather than relying (a) on unreliable memory and (b) spending resources learning something that is likely to change either soon or frequently or both.

I rely on certain parts of my memory very much - my hippocampus is exercised thoroughly in remembering where I put things, and remembering travel routes, so I am not looking forward to the day when it becomes noticeably less effective. Remembering timetables, on the other hand, I am dreadful at.

badger
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Re: COVID-19

Post by badger » Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:21 am

Am getting loads of "if you got sick in Nov or Dec then you probably had the coronavirus" stuff at the moment.

Is there any handy debunking available that anyone's seen that I can counter with. Have had a google and come up empty handed. It's taking me an age to explain death and infection rates to them without sounding rude.

badger
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Re: COVID-19

Post by badger » Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:42 am

badger wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:21 am
Am getting loads of "if you got sick in Nov or Dec then you probably had the coronavirus" stuff at the moment.

Is there any handy debunking available that anyone's seen that I can counter with. Have had a google and come up empty handed. It's taking me an age to explain death and infection rates to them without sounding rude.
Just to add, I'm being pointed to this as conclusive evidence...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 899027001/

Lew Dolby
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lew Dolby » Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:11 pm

seem to remember (but can't find a source now) that someone, in somewhere like Washington State, was testing samples taken from patients (possibly deaths) from last winter and finding Coronavirus. Also the Fed government ordered them to stop as they didn't like the message that it was present in the USA before it was reported in China.

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:21 pm

Lew Dolby wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:11 pm
seem to remember (but can't find a source now) that someone, in somewhere like Washington State, was testing samples taken from patients (possibly deaths) from last winter and finding Coronavirus. Also the Fed government ordered them to stop as they didn't like the message that it was present in the USA before it was reported in China.
That must have been very speculative. The genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has been mapped, see here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

We can be certain that it originated (as in started to infect humans) in China at the end of 2019.

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Opti
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Opti » Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:32 pm

I can only add as an anecdote that I had atypical 'flu' here in southern Spain, first couple of weeks in January. I passed through Malaga airport at exactly the same time as the Wuhan football team. I was so ill I had no choice but to self-isolate. But I probably just had flu. Probably.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by badger » Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:43 pm

Thanks for the link @woodchopper, v handy.

@opti - I hear you, but even if you did, it's a far cry from the "anyone who was ill for 14 days with a bad cough in UK/USA in November/December has had it" bollocks doing the rounds.

That USA Today "Fact Check" does a poor job of debunking it ("more research needed" FFS). One of my worries is that people who then think they've had it will then assume themselves to be immune.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:47 pm

You could probably assume 5-10 more asymptomatic cases as compared to registered cases, in both the UK and in Italy, but that would correspond to the exponential growth starting about a week earlier. Also, it wouldn't really change the number of deaths, since it's the number of deaths which we're all using to estimate the true number of cases by correcting the CFR to something less disastrous.

In the week of 13-22 February patients from Nembro started showing up at Alzano hospital with covid symptoms - and now the Province of Bergamo (pop. 1.1 million) has had 10,000 official cases and thousands of deaths; I don't know if the Bergamo strain of the virus has been sequenced to see if it matches with CDG1 from Codogno.

(For reference, the Province of Milano (pop. 3.3 million) has had 12,500 official cases; there have been 55,000 cases in the whole of Lombardy (pop. 10 million) and 10,000 deaths.)

That's maybe a bit earlier than it could have got there via the known outbreak in Codogno ("Mattia" got ill around the middle of February) but the infection in that area probably dates back to mid-late January having got to Codogno from Bavaria (CDG1 and BavPat1 are very closely related). There were also an anomalous number of cases of pneumonia in a hospital in Piacenza (not far from Codogno) at the end of December but it turns out they probably had nothing to do with Covid.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:48 pm

Opti wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:32 pm
I can only add as an anecdote that I had atypical 'flu' here in southern Spain, first couple of weeks in January. I passed through Malaga airport at exactly the same time as the Wuhan football team. I was so ill I had no choice but to self-isolate. But I probably just had flu. Probably.
Yeah I got it in Portugal in December and took it home for Christmas. Sorry Mum.
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Herainestold
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:55 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:21 pm
Lew Dolby wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:11 pm
seem to remember (but can't find a source now) that someone, in somewhere like Washington State, was testing samples taken from patients (possibly deaths) from last winter and finding Coronavirus. Also the Fed government ordered them to stop as they didn't like the message that it was present in the USA before it was reported in China.
That must have been very speculative. The genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has been mapped, see here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

We can be certain that it originated (as in started to infect humans) in China at the end of 2019.
You are thinking of the Seattle Flu Study. Swabs that were collected for Flu surveillance were retested for corona virus and some positives were found.
The researchers were ordered to stop testing because the swabs were not collected for coronavirus, it was an ethical violation. Also the labs were not certified for that kind of testing.
The results showed that the virus had been circulating in the Seattle area for a number of weeks. Not that it was there before the China out break,
but it had likely been initiated by one of the first China sourced cases in the US.
The Seattle Flu Study had collected nasal swabs from Puget Sound area residents with flu-like symptoms for months. Chu’s initial goal was to rework her lab’s testing to figure out whether coronavirus had arrived in Washington state, in an effort limit its spread as quickly as possible.

That request was denied by the federal government, who argued that because the project was specifically funded for the flu, she couldn’t test for a different virus, even as part of something that Dr. Chu viewed was in the public interest.
Federal and state officials said the flu study could not be repurposed because it did not have explicit permission from research subjects; the labs were also not certified for clinical work. While acknowledging the ethical questions, Dr. Chu and others argued there should be more flexibility in an emergency during which so many lives could be lost. On Monday night, state regulators told them to stop testing altogether.
By Feb. 25, Dr. Chu and her colleagues could not bear to wait any longer. They began performing coronavirus tests, without government approval.

What came back confirmed their worst fear. They quickly had a positive test from a local teenager with no recent travel history. The coronavirus had already established itself on American soil without anybody realizing it.

“It must have been here this entire time,” Dr. Chu recalled thinking with dread. “It’s just everywhere already.”

In fact, officials would later discover through testing, the virus had already contributed to the deaths of two people, and it would go on to kill 20 more in the Seattle region over the following days.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/c ... ogin=email (paywalled)
https://mynorthwest.com/1758762/coronav ... flu-study/

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Woodchopper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:21 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:55 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:21 pm
Lew Dolby wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:11 pm
seem to remember (but can't find a source now) that someone, in somewhere like Washington State, was testing samples taken from patients (possibly deaths) from last winter and finding Coronavirus. Also the Fed government ordered them to stop as they didn't like the message that it was present in the USA before it was reported in China.
That must have been very speculative. The genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has been mapped, see here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

We can be certain that it originated (as in started to infect humans) in China at the end of 2019.
You are thinking of the Seattle Flu Study. Swabs that were collected for Flu surveillance were retested for corona virus and some positives were found.
The researchers were ordered to stop testing because the swabs were not collected for coronavirus, it was an ethical violation. Also the labs were not certified for that kind of testing.
The results showed that the virus had been circulating in the Seattle area for a number of weeks. Not that it was there before the China out break,
but it had likely been initiated by one of the first China sourced cases in the US.
The Seattle Flu Study had collected nasal swabs from Puget Sound area residents with flu-like symptoms for months. Chu’s initial goal was to rework her lab’s testing to figure out whether coronavirus had arrived in Washington state, in an effort limit its spread as quickly as possible.

That request was denied by the federal government, who argued that because the project was specifically funded for the flu, she couldn’t test for a different virus, even as part of something that Dr. Chu viewed was in the public interest.
Federal and state officials said the flu study could not be repurposed because it did not have explicit permission from research subjects; the labs were also not certified for clinical work. While acknowledging the ethical questions, Dr. Chu and others argued there should be more flexibility in an emergency during which so many lives could be lost. On Monday night, state regulators told them to stop testing altogether.
By Feb. 25, Dr. Chu and her colleagues could not bear to wait any longer. They began performing coronavirus tests, without government approval.

What came back confirmed their worst fear. They quickly had a positive test from a local teenager with no recent travel history. The coronavirus had already established itself on American soil without anybody realizing it.

“It must have been here this entire time,” Dr. Chu recalled thinking with dread. “It’s just everywhere already.”

In fact, officials would later discover through testing, the virus had already contributed to the deaths of two people, and it would go on to kill 20 more in the Seattle region over the following days.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/c ... ogin=email (paywalled)
https://mynorthwest.com/1758762/coronav ... flu-study/
Thanks for that. Looks like the Covid testing was this winter. Which would fit with what we know.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by lpm » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:35 pm

The researchers were ordered to stop testing because the swabs were not collected for coronavirus, it was an ethical violation. Also the labs were not certified for that kind of testing.
That winds me up. Useful info chucked during a global emergency.
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:39 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:21 pm


Thanks for that. Looks like the Covid testing was this winter. Which would fit with what we know.
Yes, I didn't know what they meant by " last winter" but it does fit in with what we know and shows the dangers of too much bureaucfacy.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by Lew Dolby » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:55 pm

thanks all for the clarifications. Highlights why I come here - to escape the woo and get pucka (I trust) info from people who work in many of these areas.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by purplehaze » Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:36 pm

Opti wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:32 pm
I can only add as an anecdote that I had atypical 'flu' here in southern Spain, first couple of weeks in January. I passed through Malaga airport at exactly the same time as the Wuhan football team. I was so ill I had no choice but to self-isolate. But I probably just had flu. Probably.
As a matter of interest, did you have the flu vaccine before your travels?

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