hahaha, I like this! Next time my supervisor asks how [insert thing I'm behind with] is going, I'll just say "I'm saving it for the next lockdown"
Solidarity with all you Ozzy folks.
hahaha, I like this! Next time my supervisor asks how [insert thing I'm behind with] is going, I'll just say "I'm saving it for the next lockdown"
Nice onesTeamTraen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:05 amOn 4 November I wrote to the Royal College of Pathologists to point out that a frootloop with the Twitter handle @ClareCraigPath was using the screen name "Dr Clare Craig FRCPath" and asking if they could maybe suggest to her that she shouldn't use her professional qualification/membership to promote frootloopery (most notably, "almost all COVID cases are false positives, death and ICU admissions are flu").
Today I notice that her screen name is now just "Dr Clare Craig" and her bio includes the sentence "Views my own not the RCPath's."
I may very well not have been the only person to complain about her (I didn't get a reply to my e-mail), but this feels like a small victory.
The Welsh lockdown (+half term? +decline in student cases? +the already quite strict rules prior to lockdown?) seem to have had some effect. I'm expecting a fairly sharp increase again in the next couple of weeks though.lpm wrote: ↑Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:55 pmA 10 day lag isn't too surprising but 2 weeks is starting to push it.
Could be distorted by different regions - the definite fall in former Tier 3 being offset by a general rise elsewhere.
For context
- the SAGE paper that basically called for lockdown and was ignored was on 21 Sept
- the Wales fire break was announced on 19 Oct
- UK lockdown announced 31 Oct
UK official cases on these dates were approx:
21 Sept - 3,700
19 Oct - 17,000
31 Oct - 22,700
The Wales fire break came too late, but I'd hope to see cases below the 17,000 mark next week. Maybe 13,000 a day by 2 Dec? Problem is there's no chance they'll be down to the 3,700 level. It'll be a disaster if we start again with slow exponential growth from 13,000 on 2 Dec.
You seem to have data on death by date of death from earlier publications as well as the latest. That would be useful to estimate the publication delay, which has piqued my curiosity. Can you tell me if you have saved earlier publications or are they on-line somewhere?
Saved earlier publications in a (rather messy) excel sheet PM me, and I can send it to youKAJ wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:26 amYou seem to have data on death by date of death from earlier publications as well as the latest. That would be useful to estimate the publication delay, which has piqued my curiosity. Can you tell me if you have saved earlier publications or are they on-line somewhere?
I think she might block me soonsTeamTraen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:05 amOn 4 November I wrote to the Royal College of Pathologists to point out that a frootloop with the Twitter handle @ClareCraigPath was using the screen name "Dr Clare Craig FRCPath" and asking if they could maybe suggest to her that she shouldn't use her professional qualification/membership to promote frootloopery (most notably, "almost all COVID cases are false positives, death and ICU admissions are flu").
Today I notice that her screen name is now just "Dr Clare Craig" and her bio includes the sentence "Views my own not the RCPath's."
I may very well not have been the only person to complain about her (I didn't get a reply to my e-mail), but this feels like a small victory.
Thank you for that explanation and I can see how that might be playing a role in Europe too. I'm encouraged that there weren't dozens of new cases detected today.Chris Preston wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:56 am
Genetic testing indicates this strain was imported into Australia on November 2nd. It does seem that the time from exposure to being infectious is about 24 h, which is much faster than other strains. It also seems to result in more asymptomatic cases. This is what has the experts so worried about this outbreak. The only green light at the moment is that all cases are linked and of the 14 people they yesterday considered to be highly likely to be cases, only 2 tested positive.
Most recent international arrivals to Adelaide have been repatriated from India and Europe. It could be that the current wave in Europe might in part be caused by more infectious strains.
I found this explainer article useful.Squeak wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:57 amThank you for that explanation and I can see how that might be playing a role in Europe too. I'm encouraged that there weren't dozens of new cases detected today.Chris Preston wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:56 am
Genetic testing indicates this strain was imported into Australia on November 2nd. It does seem that the time from exposure to being infectious is about 24 h, which is much faster than other strains. It also seems to result in more asymptomatic cases. This is what has the experts so worried about this outbreak. The only green light at the moment is that all cases are linked and of the 14 people they yesterday considered to be highly likely to be cases, only 2 tested positive.
Most recent international arrivals to Adelaide have been repatriated from India and Europe. It could be that the current wave in Europe might in part be caused by more infectious strains.
I was looking at Daily Deaths by date of death - there is a big lag
Presumably you are allowed out of your house to go grocery shopping, though, and I don't think many people expect the supply chains to collapse. So I'm wondering if some part of the "panic buying" isn't potentially "a good thing" (let's go for a big shop now and then we won't have to go out for a week) rather than "a bad thing" (let's get in 6 months worth of bog roll in case people buying all the bog roll causes a shortage of bog roll).Chris Preston wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:57 amThe supermarkets are a mess, although our local one wasn't too bad except for the massive queue to pay and the lack of toilet paper and bread. The lines at the bottle shops are absolutely huge as everyone tries to stock up on booze. The roads are just a car park everywhere as everyone rushes out to do things they now won't be able to do for a week.
WOW 29-Oct to 15-Nov is 17 days and it still hadn't reached its final value, may not have done by 17-Nov. I hadn't expected that big a delay.This really means we can't expect to see a decline in death rates until a number of weeks after it happens.PeteB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:56 pmI was looking at Daily Deaths by date of death - there is a big lag
______|10/11|11/11|15/11|17/11|
03-Nov| 317 _| 332 _|_____| 352 _|
02-Nov| 310 _| 321 _|_____| 327 _|
01-Nov| 331 _| 353 _| 353_| 356 _|
31-Oct| 292 _| 297 _| 312_| 316 _|
30-Oct| 321 _| 331 _| 336_| 336 _|
29-Oct| 306 _| 309 _| 310_| 311 _|
The data I've collected off the dashboard at different dates - hope it's tab separated if you paste but if not I have a csv that I can emailKAJ wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:37 pmWOW 29-Oct to 15-Nov is 17 days and it still hadn't reached its final value, may not have done by 17-Nov. I hadn't expected that big a delay.This really means we can't expect to see a decline in death rates until a number of weeks after it happens.PeteB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:56 pmI was looking at Daily Deaths by date of death - there is a big lag
______|10/11|11/11|15/11|17/11|
03-Nov| 317 _| 332 _|_____| 352 _|
02-Nov| 310 _| 321 _|_____| 327 _|
01-Nov| 331 _| 353 _| 353_| 356 _|
31-Oct| 292 _| 297 _| 312_| 316 _|
30-Oct| 321 _| 331 _| 336_| 336 _|
29-Oct| 306 _| 309 _| 310_| 311 _|
Code: Select all
Date UK by date of death 25-10 United Kingdom total Date UK by date reported 26-10 United Kingdom total Date UK by date of death 06-11 United Kingdom total Date UK by date of death 11-11 United Kingdom total Date United Kingdom daily by date reported 11-Nov 7 day average centred on report date (11-Nov) Date UK by date of death 15-11 7 day average centred on date of death date (15-Nov) Date UK reported 15-11 7 day average centred on report date (15-Nov) 7day Geomean of date reported 15-nov Date UK by date of death 17-11 United Kingdom total
25/10/2020 32 44,997 26/10/2020 102 44,998 04/11/2020 87 48,117 10/11/2020 84 50,361 11/11/2020 595 12/11/2020 323 15/11/2020 168 16/11/2020 103 52,744
24/10/2020 69 44,965 25/10/2020 151 44,896 03/11/2020 221 48,030 09/11/2020 307 50,277 10/11/2020 532 11/11/2020 324 14/11/2020 462 15/11/2020 260 52,641
23/10/2020 106 44,896 24/10/2020 174 44,745 02/11/2020 270 47,809 08/11/2020 308 49,970 09/11/2020 194 10/11/2020 355 13/11/2020 376 14/11/2020 273 52,381
22/10/2020 176 44,790 23/10/2020 224 44,571 01/11/2020 291 47,539 07/11/2020 307 49,662 08/11/2020 156 375 09/11/2020 450 363 12/11/2020 563 413 373 13/11/2020 306 52,108
21/10/2020 188 44,614 22/10/2020 189 44,347 31/10/2020 257 47,248 06/11/2020 329 49,355 07/11/2020 413 360 08/11/2020 369 367 11/11/2020 595 411 369 12/11/2020 354 51,802
20/10/2020 170 44,426 21/10/2020 191 44,158 30/10/2020 288 46,991 05/11/2020 320 49,026 06/11/2020 355 341 07/11/2020 351 365 10/11/2020 532 404 363 11/11/2020 339 51,448
19/10/2020 162 44,256 20/10/2020 241 43,967 29/10/2020 287 46,703 04/11/2020 309 48,706 05/11/2020 378 332 06/11/2020 367 365 09/11/2020 194 401 360 10/11/2020 365 51,109
18/10/2020 146 44,094 19/10/2020 80 43,726 28/10/2020 260 46,416 03/11/2020 332 48,397 04/11/2020 492 333 05/11/2020 350 347 08/11/2020 156 375 341 09/11/2020 454 50,744
17/10/2020 167 43,948 18/10/2020 67 43,646 27/10/2020 255 46,156 02/11/2020 321 48,065 03/11/2020 397 321 04/11/2020 313 345 07/11/2020 413 360 331 08/11/2020 382 50,290
16/10/2020 134 43,781 17/10/2020 150 43,579 26/10/2020 265 45,901 01/11/2020 343 47,744 02/11/2020 136 309 03/11/2020 354 340 06/11/2020 355 341 318 07/11/2020 363 49,908
15/10/2020 142 43,647 16/10/2020 136 43,429 25/10/2020 245 45,636 31/10/2020 297 47,401 01/11/2020 162 295 02/11/2020 328 335 05/11/2020 378 332 302 06/11/2020 376 49,545
14/10/2020 114 43,505 15/10/2020 138 43,293 24/10/2020 206 45,391 30/10/2020 331 47,104 31/10/2020 326 269 01/11/2020 353 329 04/11/2020 492 333 304 05/11/2020 369 49,169
13/10/2020 106 43,391 14/10/2020 137 43,155 23/10/2020 217 45,185 29/10/2020 309 46,773 30/10/2020 274 265 31/10/2020 312 324 03/11/2020 397 321 294 04/11/2020 316 48,800
12/10/2020 113 43,285 13/10/2020 143 43,018 22/10/2020 230 44,968 28/10/2020 274 46,464 29/10/2020 280 260 30/10/2020 336 311 02/11/2020 136 309 283 03/11/2020 352 48,484
11/10/2020 123 43,172 12/10/2020 50 42,875 21/10/2020 218 44,738 27/10/2020 264 46,190 28/10/2020 310 259 29/10/2020 310 304 01/11/2020 162 295 271 02/11/2020 327 48,132
10/10/2020 101 43,049 11/10/2020 65 42,825 20/10/2020 190 44,520 26/10/2020 274 45,926 27/10/2020 367 237 28/10/2020 276 289 31/10/2020 326 269 254 01/11/2020 356 47,805
09/10/2020 79 42,948 10/10/2020 81 42,760 19/10/2020 185 44,330 25/10/2020 247 45,652 26/10/2020 102 230 27/10/2020 264 274 30/10/2020 274 265 251 31/10/2020 316 47,449
08/10/2020 93 42,869 09/10/2020 87 42,679 18/10/2020 158 44,145 24/10/2020 207 45,405 25/10/2020 151 217 26/10/2020 278 258 29/10/2020 280 260 241 30/10/2020 336 47,133
07/10/2020 98 42,776 08/10/2020 77 42,592 17/10/2020 176 43,987 23/10/2020 221 45,198 24/10/2020 174 200 25/10/2020 246 247 28/10/2020 310 259 238 29/10/2020 311 46,797
06/10/2020 69 42,678 07/10/2020 70 42,515 16/10/2020 147 43,811 22/10/2020 232 44,977 23/10/2020 224 182 24/10/2020 210 239 27/10/2020 367 237 218 28/10/2020 277 46,486
05/10/2020 70 42,609 06/10/2020 76 42,445 15/10/2020 151 43,664 21/10/2020 219 44,745 22/10/2020 189 179 23/10/2020 221 229 26/10/2020 102 230 212 27/10/2020 265 46,209
04/10/2020 60 42,539 05/10/2020 19 42,369 14/10/2020 114 43,513 20/10/2020 194 44,526 21/10/2020 191 167 22/10/2020 234 216 25/10/2020 151 217 200 26/10/2020 277 45,944
03/10/2020 65 42,479 04/10/2020 33 42,350 13/10/2020 109 43,399 19/10/2020 188 44,332 20/10/2020 241 163 21/10/2020 220 204 24/10/2020 174 200 187 25/10/2020 247 45,667
02/10/2020 68 42,414 03/10/2020 49 42,317 12/10/2020 113 43,290 18/10/2020 159 44,144 19/10/2020 80 151 20/10/2020 195 199 23/10/2020 224 182 176 24/10/2020 210 45,420
01/10/2020 64 42,346 02/10/2020 66 42,268 11/10/2020 121 43,177 17/10/2020 175 43,985 18/10/2020 67 143 19/10/2020 189 188 22/10/2020 189 179 170 23/10/2020 221 45,210
30/09/2020 57 42,282 01/10/2020 59 42,202 10/10/2020 101 43,056 16/10/2020 146 43,810 17/10/2020 150 136 18/10/2020 158 176 21/10/2020 191 167 151 22/10/2020 235 44,989
29/09/2020 48 42,225 30/09/2020 71 42,143 09/10/2020 79 42,955 15/10/2020 151 43,664 16/10/2020 136 122 17/10/2020 175 161 20/10/2020 241 163 148 21/10/2020 220 44,754
28/09/2020 54 42,177 29/09/2020 71 42,072 08/10/2020 93 42,876 14/10/2020 114 43,513 15/10/2020 138 117 16/10/2020 146 149 19/10/2020 80 151 138 20/10/2020 194 44,534
27/09/2020 45 42,123 28/09/2020 13 42,001 07/10/2020 101 42,783 13/10/2020 109 43,399 14/10/2020 137 117 15/10/2020 151 138 18/10/2020 67 143 132 19/10/2020 190 44,340
26/09/2020 40 42,078 27/09/2020 17 41,988 06/10/2020 69 42,682 12/10/2020 111 43,290 13/10/2020 143 107 14/10/2020 114 133 17/10/2020 150 136 126 18/10/2020 158 44,150
25/09/2020 32 42,038 26/09/2020 34 41,971 05/10/2020 69 42,613 11/10/2020 122 43,179 12/10/2020 50 100 13/10/2020 109 122 16/10/2020 136 122 117 17/10/2020 175 43,992
24/09/2020 34 42,006 25/09/2020 35 41,937 04/10/2020 60 42,544 10/10/2020 102 43,057 11/10/2020 65 91 12/10/2020 111 113 15/10/2020 138 117 109 16/10/2020 146 43,817
23/09/2020 56 41,972 24/09/2020 40 41,902 03/10/2020 65 42,484 09/10/2020 79 42,955 10/10/2020 81 82 11/10/2020 122 104 14/10/2020 137 117 109 15/10/2020 151 43,671
22/09/2020 39 41,916 23/09/2020 37 41,862 02/10/2020 69 42,419 08/10/2020 92 42,876 09/10/2020 87 72 10/10/2020 103 102 13/10/2020 143 107 100 14/10/2020 114 43,520
21/09/2020 28 41,877 22/09/2020 37 41,825 01/10/2020 66 42,350 07/10/2020 101 42,784 08/10/2020 77 68 09/10/2020 79 97 12/10/2020 50 100 93 13/10/2020 109 43,406
20/09/2020 31 41,849 21/09/2020 11 41,788 30/09/2020 56 42,284 06/10/2020 69 42,683 07/10/2020 70 63 08/10/2020 92 91 11/10/2020 65 91 86 12/10/2020 111 43,297
19/09/2020 19 41,818 20/09/2020 18 41,777 29/09/2020 48 42,228 05/10/2020 69 42,614 06/10/2020 76 59 07/10/2020 101 82 10/10/2020 81 82 78 11/10/2020 122 43,186
18/09/2020 23 41,799 19/09/2020 27 41,759 28/09/2020 54 42,180 04/10/2020 60 42,545 05/10/2020 19 56 06/10/2020 69 77 09/10/2020 87 72 71 10/10/2020 103 43,064
17/09/2020 27 41,776 18/09/2020 27 41,732 27/09/2020 45 42,126 03/10/2020 66 42,485 04/10/2020 33 53 05/10/2020 69 75 08/10/2020 77 68 62 09/10/2020 79 42,961
16/09/2020 26 41,749 17/09/2020 21 41,705 26/09/2020 40 42,081 02/10/2020 68 42,419 03/10/2020 49 53 04/10/2020 60 71 07/10/2020 70 63 56 08/10/2020 92 42,882
15/09/2020 17 41,723 16/09/2020 20 41,684 25/09/2020 32 42,041 01/10/2020 66 42,351 02/10/2020 66 53 03/10/2020 66 65 06/10/2020 76 59 52 07/10/2020 101 42,790
14/09/2020 21 41,706 15/09/2020 27 41,664 24/09/2020 35 42,009 30/09/2020 57 42,285 01/10/2020 59 52 02/10/2020 68 62 05/10/2020 19 56 50 06/10/2020 69 42,689
13/09/2020 16 41,685 14/09/2020 9 41,637 23/09/2020 56 41,974 29/09/2020 48 42,228 30/09/2020 71 49 01/10/2020 66 60 04/10/2020 33 53 49 05/10/2020 69 42,620
12/09/2020 18 41,669 13/09/2020 5 41,628 22/09/2020 38 41,918 28/09/2020 54 42,180 29/09/2020 71 47 30/09/2020 57 58 03/10/2020 49 53 49 04/10/2020 60 42,551
11/09/2020 13 41,651 12/09/2020 9 41,623 21/09/2020 28 41,880 27/09/2020 46 42,126 28/09/2020 13 43 29/09/2020 48 54 02/10/2020 66 53 48 03/10/2020 66 42,491
10/09/2020 13 41,638 11/09/2020 6 41,614 20/09/2020 31 41,852 26/09/2020 40 42,080 27/09/2020 17 40 28/09/2020 54 49 01/10/2020 59 52 46 02/10/2020 68 42,425
09/09/2020 9 41,625 10/09/2020 14 41,608 19/09/2020 19 41,821 25/09/2020 32 42,040 26/09/2020 34 35 27/09/2020 46 45 30/09/2020 71 49 42 01/10/2020 66 42,357
08/09/2020 9 41,616 09/09/2020 8 41,594 18/09/2020 23 41,802 24/09/2020 35 42,008 25/09/2020 35 30 26/09/2020 40 44 29/09/2020 71 47 39 30/09/2020 57 42,291
07/09/2020 16 41,607 08/09/2020 32 41,586 17/09/2020 27 41,779 23/09/2020 56 41,973 24/09/2020 40 30 25/09/2020 32 43 28/09/2020 13 43 36 29/09/2020 48 42,234
06/09/2020 8 41,591 07/09/2020 3 41,554 16/09/2020 26 41,752 22/09/2020 38 41,917 23/09/2020 37 24/09/2020 35 27/09/2020 17 40 34 28/09/2020 54 42,186
05/09/2020 12 41,583 06/09/2020 2 41,551 15/09/2020 17 41,726 21/09/2020 27 41,879 22/09/2020 37 23/09/2020 56 26/09/2020 34 35 31 27/09/2020 46 42,132
04/09/2020 7 41,571 05/09/2020 12 41,549 14/09/2020 21 41,709 20/09/2020 31 41,852 21/09/2020 11 22/09/2020 38 25/09/2020 35 30 28 26/09/2020 40 42,086
03/09/2020 10 41,564 04/09/2020 10 41,537 13/09/2020 16 41,688 19/09/2020 20 41,821 21/09/2020 27 24/09/2020 40 30 28 25/09/2020 32 42,046
02/09/2020 9 41,554 03/09/2020 13 41,527 12/09/2020 18 41,672 18/09/2020 23 41,801 20/09/2020 31 23/09/2020 37 30 28 24/09/2020 35 42,014
01/09/2020 3 41,545 02/09/2020 10 41,514 11/09/2020 13 41,654 19/09/2020 20 22/09/2020 37 29 27 23/09/2020 56 41,979
31/08/2020 8 41,542 01/09/2020 3 41,504 10/09/2020 13 41,641 18/09/2020 23 21/09/2020 11 28 26 22/09/2020 38 41,923
30/08/2020 6 41,534 31/08/2020 2 41,501 09/09/2020 9 41,628 17/09/2020 27 20/09/2020 18 25 24 21/09/2020 27 41,885
29/08/2020 4 41,528 30/08/2020 1 41,499 08/09/2020 9 41,619 16/09/2020 26 19/09/2020 27 23 22 20/09/2020 31 41,858
28/08/2020 11 41,524 29/08/2020 12 41,498 07/09/2020 16 41,610 15/09/2020 17 18/09/2020 27 22 21 19/09/2020 20 41,827
27/08/2020 7 41,513 28/08/2020 9 41,486 06/09/2020 8 41,594 14/09/2020 21 17/09/2020 21 21 20 18/09/2020 23 41,807
Except that now people will have to go out repeatedly for whatever they couldn't get today while the shops try to replenish their pasta and toilet paper stocks.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:23 pmPresumably you are allowed out of your house to go grocery shopping, though, and I don't think many people expect the supply chains to collapse. So I'm wondering if some part of the "panic buying" isn't potentially "a good thing" (let's go for a big shop now and then we won't have to go out for a week) rather than "a bad thing" (let's get in 6 months worth of bog roll in case people buying all the bog roll causes a shortage of bog roll).Chris Preston wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:57 amThe supermarkets are a mess, although our local one wasn't too bad except for the massive queue to pay and the lack of toilet paper and bread. The lines at the bottle shops are absolutely huge as everyone tries to stock up on booze. The roads are just a car park everywhere as everyone rushes out to do things they now won't be able to do for a week.
Well, at least the other rules are unambiguous: No exercise, and no takeaways or off-sales.
Not that it would affect me, but I always wonder how people without access to a kitchen manage with the no takeaways rule. Or are deliveries still allowed?sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:39 pmWell, at least the other rules are unambiguous: No exercise, and no takeaways or off-sales.
It's reminiscent of our first six-week lockdown here in Spain: People moaned a bit (we live 10 metres from the entrance to a 126 hectare park and it was frustrating to see the locked gates as we set out for our allowed trips to the shops), but the cases came down much more rapidly than in the UK.
jimbob emailed his data (thanks!).jimbob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:52 pmThe data I've collected off the dashboard at different dates - hope it's tab separated if you paste but if not I have a csv that I can emailKAJ wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:37 pmWOW 29-Oct to 15-Nov is 17 days and it still hadn't reached its final value, may not have done by 17-Nov. I hadn't expected that big a delay.This really means we can't expect to see a decline in death rates until a number of weeks after it happens.PeteB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:56 pm
I was looking at Daily Deaths by date of death - there is a big lag
______|10/11|11/11|15/11|17/11|
03-Nov| 317 _| 332 _|_____| 352 _|
02-Nov| 310 _| 321 _|_____| 327 _|
01-Nov| 331 _| 353 _| 353_| 356 _|
31-Oct| 292 _| 297 _| 312_| 316 _|
30-Oct| 321 _| 331 _| 336_| 336 _|
29-Oct| 306 _| 309 _| 310_| 311 _|Code: Select all
snip
I have friends who live in a campervan who got locked down in Spain. It was only one household memher allowed to travel to the shops, so one parent and the kids had to stay behind sat on chairs, whilst the other took the van to the shops. Lockdown rules get quite tricky when you have a non traditional living situation.jimbob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:28 pmNot that it would affect me, but I always wonder how people without access to a kitchen manage with the no takeaways rule. Or are deliveries still allowed?sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:39 pmWell, at least the other rules are unambiguous: No exercise, and no takeaways or off-sales.
It's reminiscent of our first six-week lockdown here in Spain: People moaned a bit (we live 10 metres from the entrance to a 126 hectare park and it was frustrating to see the locked gates as we set out for our allowed trips to the shops), but the cases came down much more rapidly than in the UK.
Furthermore you can see that after 4-5 days the corrections to the number are relatively minor.KAJ wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:11 pmjimbob emailed his data (thanks!).jimbob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:52 pmThe data I've collected off the dashboard at different dates - hope it's tab separated if you paste but if not I have a csv that I can emailCode: Select all
snip
Publication dates were 25-10, 06-11, 11-11, 15-11, 17-11
I looked at deaths by date of death in the range 18-9 to 25-10 being the range with values for all 5 publication dates. Plotting % of max for that publication date v. lag (restricted to lag <= 20 days) gives this:
Although some death reports are very delayed, it looks as if practically all deaths are published by 10 days after death.
I think deliveries were allowed, but I suspect that the number of people in Spain who have no kitchen and rely on all of their meals being delivered is extremely small. Apart from anything else, it would seem to imply a budget (for the meals) that would allow someone to rent a place with at least a basic kitchen.
I was also thinking of essential workers. Maybe having to stay away from home.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:46 pmI think deliveries were allowed, but I suspect that the number of people in Spain who have no kitchen and rely on all of their meals being delivered is extremely small. Apart from anything else, it would seem to imply a budget (for the meals) that would allow someone to rent a place with at least a basic kitchen.
The earlier panic buying had a lot of hoarding and people trying to profit from a black market. Back in the days when you had to line up to enter supermarkets, the same people would line up early every morning and buy their allowed 1 packet of toilet rolls, every single day. One of the supermarket chains sold 9 months worth of toilet paper in 4 weeks. After pressure was put on the online marketplaces to ban sales of toilet paper, someone contacted one of the supermarkets wanting to sell back to them more than 5000 toilet rolls they had hoarded. Yesterday, I saw person after person leaving the supermarket with 2 packets of 18 toilet rolls - for a six day lock down. As someone wrote in the paper this morning, were these people going to spend 6 days on the toilet.Squeak wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:53 pmExcept that now people will have to go out repeatedly for whatever they couldn't get today while the shops try to replenish their pasta and toilet paper stocks.
I thought the earlier rounds of panic buying we're mostly shown to be the sorry of sensible approach you outlined - lots of people quite sensibly buying a bit extra but that little extra having the effect of overwhelming the just-in-time stocking capacity of supermarkets.
It's hard to blame individuals but it probably won't help much to keep people at home this week.