COVID-19

[Bird on a Fire]

Good luck with the mad scramble, Chris. And may I congratulate you on your procrastination skills - it was very clever of you to plan all year for a quiet week at home in November.

hahaha, I like this! Next time my supervisor asks how [insert thing I'm behind with] is going, I'll just say "I'm saving it for the next lockdown"

Solidarity with all you Ozzy folks.

[Chris Preston]

I'm increasingly puzzled by the generation time though. I'll be interested to see if the really quick infection rate is related to the environment rather than something genetic.

Genetic testing indicates this strain was imported into Australia on November 2nd. It does seem that the time from exposure to being infectious is about 24 h, which is much faster than other strains. It also seems to result in more asymptomatic cases. This is what has the experts so worried about this outbreak. The only green light at the moment is that all cases are linked and of the 14 people they yesterday considered to be highly likely to be cases, only 2 tested positive.

Most recent international arrivals to Adelaide have been repatriated from India and Europe. It could be that the current wave in Europe might in part be caused by more infectious strains.

[jimbob]

On 4 November I wrote to the Royal College of Pathologists to point out that a frootloop with the Twitter handle @ClareCraigPath was using the screen name "Dr Clare Craig FRCPath" and asking if they could maybe suggest to her that she shouldn't use her professional qualification/membership to promote frootloopery (most notably, "almost all COVID cases are false positives, death and ICU admissions are flu").

Today I notice that her screen name is now just "Dr Clare Craig" and her bio includes the sentence "Views my own not the RCPath's."

I may very well not have been the only person to complain about her (I didn't get a reply to my e-mail), but this feels like a small victory.

Nice one

[Seagull]

A 10 day lag isn't too surprising but 2 weeks is starting to push it.

Could be distorted by different regions - the definite fall in former Tier 3 being offset by a general rise elsewhere.

For context

- the SAGE paper that basically called for lockdown and was ignored was on 21 Sept
- the Wales fire break was announced on 19 Oct
- UK lockdown announced 31 Oct

UK official cases on these dates were approx:

21 Sept - 3,700
19 Oct - 17,000
31 Oct - 22,700

The Wales fire break came too late, but I'd hope to see cases below the 17,000 mark next week. Maybe 13,000 a day by 2 Dec? Problem is there's no chance they'll be down to the 3,700 level. It'll be a disaster if we start again with slow exponential growth from 13,000 on 2 Dec.

The Welsh lockdown (+half term? +decline in student cases? +the already quite strict rules prior to lockdown?) seem to have had some effect. I'm expecting a fairly sharp increase again in the next couple of weeks though.

[KAJ]

It does look as though the exponential rise in deaths is slowing down. Still a bit early to be certain though

Screenshot 2020-11-17 223602.png

You seem to have data on death by date of death from earlier publications as well as the latest. That would be useful to estimate the publication delay, which has piqued my curiosity. Can you tell me if you have saved earlier publications or are they on-line somewhere?

[jimbob]

It does look as though the exponential rise in deaths is slowing down. Still a bit early to be certain though

Screenshot 2020-11-17 223602.png

You seem to have data on death by date of death from earlier publications as well as the latest. That would be useful to estimate the publication delay, which has piqued my curiosity. Can you tell me if you have saved earlier publications or are they on-line somewhere?

Saved earlier publications in a (rather messy) excel sheet PM me, and I can send it to you

[jimbob]

On 4 November I wrote to the Royal College of Pathologists to point out that a frootloop with the Twitter handle @ClareCraigPath was using the screen name "Dr Clare Craig FRCPath" and asking if they could maybe suggest to her that she shouldn't use her professional qualification/membership to promote frootloopery (most notably, "almost all COVID cases are false positives, death and ICU admissions are flu").

Today I notice that her screen name is now just "Dr Clare Craig" and her bio includes the sentence "Views my own not the RCPath's."

I may very well not have been the only person to complain about her (I didn't get a reply to my e-mail), but this feels like a small victory.

I think she might block me soon

[Squeak]

I'm increasingly puzzled by the generation time though. I'll be interested to see if the really quick infection rate is related to the environment rather than something genetic.

Genetic testing indicates this strain was imported into Australia on November 2nd. It does seem that the time from exposure to being infectious is about 24 h, which is much faster than other strains. It also seems to result in more asymptomatic cases. This is what has the experts so worried about this outbreak. The only green light at the moment is that all cases are linked and of the 14 people they yesterday considered to be highly likely to be cases, only 2 tested positive.

Most recent international arrivals to Adelaide have been repatriated from India and Europe. It could be that the current wave in Europe might in part be caused by more infectious strains.

Thank you for that explanation and I can see how that might be playing a role in Europe too. I'm encouraged that there weren't dozens of new cases detected today.

[Squeak]

I'm increasingly puzzled by the generation time though. I'll be interested to see if the really quick infection rate is related to the environment rather than something genetic.

Genetic testing indicates this strain was imported into Australia on November 2nd. It does seem that the time from exposure to being infectious is about 24 h, which is much faster than other strains. It also seems to result in more asymptomatic cases. This is what has the experts so worried about this outbreak. The only green light at the moment is that all cases are linked and of the 14 people they yesterday considered to be highly likely to be cases, only 2 tested positive.

Most recent international arrivals to Adelaide have been repatriated from India and Europe. It could be that the current wave in Europe might in part be caused by more infectious strains.

Thank you for that explanation and I can see how that might be playing a role in Europe too. I'm encouraged that there weren't dozens of new cases detected today.

I found this explainer article useful.

[PeteB]

I am not convinced that the apparent decline in the last four points is real - I'm ready to believe that the delay between deaths and publication is greater than that between test specimens and publication.

I was looking at Daily Deaths by date of death - there is a big lag

______|10/11|11/11|15/11|17/11|
03-Nov| 317 _| 332 _|_____| 352 _|
02-Nov| 310 _| 321 _|_____| 327 _|
01-Nov| 331 _| 353 _| 353_| 356 _|
31-Oct| 292 _| 297 _| 312_| 316 _|
30-Oct| 321 _| 331 _| 336_| 336 _|
29-Oct| 306 _| 309 _| 310_| 311 _|

[sTeamTraen]

The supermarkets are a mess, although our local one wasn't too bad except for the massive queue to pay and the lack of toilet paper and bread. The lines at the bottle shops are absolutely huge as everyone tries to stock up on booze. The roads are just a car park everywhere as everyone rushes out to do things they now won't be able to do for a week.

Presumably you are allowed out of your house to go grocery shopping, though, and I don't think many people expect the supply chains to collapse. So I'm wondering if some part of the "panic buying" isn't potentially "a good thing" (let's go for a big shop now and then we won't have to go out for a week) rather than "a bad thing" (let's get in 6 months worth of bog roll in case people buying all the bog roll causes a shortage of bog roll).

[KAJ]

I am not convinced that the apparent decline in the last four points is real - I'm ready to believe that the delay between deaths and publication is greater than that between test specimens and publication.

I was looking at Daily Deaths by date of death - there is a big lag

______|10/11|11/11|15/11|17/11|
03-Nov| 317 _| 332 _|_____| 352 _|
02-Nov| 310 _| 321 _|_____| 327 _|
01-Nov| 331 _| 353 _| 353_| 356 _|
31-Oct| 292 _| 297 _| 312_| 316 _|
30-Oct| 321 _| 331 _| 336_| 336 _|
29-Oct| 306 _| 309 _| 310_| 311 _|

WOW 29-Oct to 15-Nov is 17 days and it still hadn't reached its final value, may not have done by 17-Nov. I hadn't expected that big a delay.This really means we can't expect to see a decline in death rates until a number of weeks after it happens.

[jimbob]

I am not convinced that the apparent decline in the last four points is real - I'm ready to believe that the delay between deaths and publication is greater than that between test specimens and publication.

I was looking at Daily Deaths by date of death - there is a big lag

______|10/11|11/11|15/11|17/11|
03-Nov| 317 _| 332 _|_____| 352 _|
02-Nov| 310 _| 321 _|_____| 327 _|
01-Nov| 331 _| 353 _| 353_| 356 _|
31-Oct| 292 _| 297 _| 312_| 316 _|
30-Oct| 321 _| 331 _| 336_| 336 _|
29-Oct| 306 _| 309 _| 310_| 311 _|

WOW 29-Oct to 15-Nov is 17 days and it still hadn't reached its final value, may not have done by 17-Nov. I hadn't expected that big a delay.This really means we can't expect to see a decline in death rates until a number of weeks after it happens.

The data I've collected off the dashboard at different dates - hope it's tab separated if you paste but if not I have a csv that I can email

Code: Select all

Date	UK by date of death 25-10	United Kingdom total			Date	UK by date reported 26-10	United Kingdom total			Date	UK by date of death 06-11	United Kingdom total			Date	UK by date of death 11-11	United Kingdom total			Date	United Kingdom daily by date reported 11-Nov	7 day average centred on report date (11-Nov)			Date	UK by date of death 15-11	7 day average centred on date of death date (15-Nov)		Date	UK reported 15-11	7 day average centred on report date (15-Nov)	7day Geomean of date reported 15-nov		Date	UK by date of death 17-11	United Kingdom total
25/10/2020	32	44,997			26/10/2020	102	44,998			04/11/2020	87	48,117			10/11/2020	84	50,361			11/11/2020	595				12/11/2020	323			15/11/2020	168				16/11/2020	103	52,744
24/10/2020	69	44,965			25/10/2020	151	44,896			03/11/2020	221	48,030			09/11/2020	307	50,277			10/11/2020	532				11/11/2020	324			14/11/2020	462				15/11/2020	260	52,641
23/10/2020	106	44,896			24/10/2020	174	44,745			02/11/2020	270	47,809			08/11/2020	308	49,970			09/11/2020	194				10/11/2020	355			13/11/2020	376				14/11/2020	273	52,381
22/10/2020	176	44,790			23/10/2020	224	44,571			01/11/2020	291	47,539			07/11/2020	307	49,662			08/11/2020	156	375			09/11/2020	450	363		12/11/2020	563	413	373		13/11/2020	306	52,108
21/10/2020	188	44,614			22/10/2020	189	44,347			31/10/2020	257	47,248			06/11/2020	329	49,355			07/11/2020	413	360			08/11/2020	369	367		11/11/2020	595	411	369		12/11/2020	354	51,802
20/10/2020	170	44,426			21/10/2020	191	44,158			30/10/2020	288	46,991			05/11/2020	320	49,026			06/11/2020	355	341			07/11/2020	351	365		10/11/2020	532	404	363		11/11/2020	339	51,448
19/10/2020	162	44,256			20/10/2020	241	43,967			29/10/2020	287	46,703			04/11/2020	309	48,706			05/11/2020	378	332			06/11/2020	367	365		09/11/2020	194	401	360		10/11/2020	365	51,109
18/10/2020	146	44,094			19/10/2020	80	43,726			28/10/2020	260	46,416			03/11/2020	332	48,397			04/11/2020	492	333			05/11/2020	350	347		08/11/2020	156	375	341		09/11/2020	454	50,744
17/10/2020	167	43,948			18/10/2020	67	43,646			27/10/2020	255	46,156			02/11/2020	321	48,065			03/11/2020	397	321			04/11/2020	313	345		07/11/2020	413	360	331		08/11/2020	382	50,290
16/10/2020	134	43,781			17/10/2020	150	43,579			26/10/2020	265	45,901			01/11/2020	343	47,744			02/11/2020	136	309			03/11/2020	354	340		06/11/2020	355	341	318		07/11/2020	363	49,908
15/10/2020	142	43,647			16/10/2020	136	43,429			25/10/2020	245	45,636			31/10/2020	297	47,401			01/11/2020	162	295			02/11/2020	328	335		05/11/2020	378	332	302		06/11/2020	376	49,545
14/10/2020	114	43,505			15/10/2020	138	43,293			24/10/2020	206	45,391			30/10/2020	331	47,104			31/10/2020	326	269			01/11/2020	353	329		04/11/2020	492	333	304		05/11/2020	369	49,169
13/10/2020	106	43,391			14/10/2020	137	43,155			23/10/2020	217	45,185			29/10/2020	309	46,773			30/10/2020	274	265			31/10/2020	312	324		03/11/2020	397	321	294		04/11/2020	316	48,800
12/10/2020	113	43,285			13/10/2020	143	43,018			22/10/2020	230	44,968			28/10/2020	274	46,464			29/10/2020	280	260			30/10/2020	336	311		02/11/2020	136	309	283		03/11/2020	352	48,484
11/10/2020	123	43,172			12/10/2020	50	42,875			21/10/2020	218	44,738			27/10/2020	264	46,190			28/10/2020	310	259			29/10/2020	310	304		01/11/2020	162	295	271		02/11/2020	327	48,132
10/10/2020	101	43,049			11/10/2020	65	42,825			20/10/2020	190	44,520			26/10/2020	274	45,926			27/10/2020	367	237			28/10/2020	276	289		31/10/2020	326	269	254		01/11/2020	356	47,805
09/10/2020	79	42,948			10/10/2020	81	42,760			19/10/2020	185	44,330			25/10/2020	247	45,652			26/10/2020	102	230			27/10/2020	264	274		30/10/2020	274	265	251		31/10/2020	316	47,449
08/10/2020	93	42,869			09/10/2020	87	42,679			18/10/2020	158	44,145			24/10/2020	207	45,405			25/10/2020	151	217			26/10/2020	278	258		29/10/2020	280	260	241		30/10/2020	336	47,133
07/10/2020	98	42,776			08/10/2020	77	42,592			17/10/2020	176	43,987			23/10/2020	221	45,198			24/10/2020	174	200			25/10/2020	246	247		28/10/2020	310	259	238		29/10/2020	311	46,797
06/10/2020	69	42,678			07/10/2020	70	42,515			16/10/2020	147	43,811			22/10/2020	232	44,977			23/10/2020	224	182			24/10/2020	210	239		27/10/2020	367	237	218		28/10/2020	277	46,486
05/10/2020	70	42,609			06/10/2020	76	42,445			15/10/2020	151	43,664			21/10/2020	219	44,745			22/10/2020	189	179			23/10/2020	221	229		26/10/2020	102	230	212		27/10/2020	265	46,209
04/10/2020	60	42,539			05/10/2020	19	42,369			14/10/2020	114	43,513			20/10/2020	194	44,526			21/10/2020	191	167			22/10/2020	234	216		25/10/2020	151	217	200		26/10/2020	277	45,944
03/10/2020	65	42,479			04/10/2020	33	42,350			13/10/2020	109	43,399			19/10/2020	188	44,332			20/10/2020	241	163			21/10/2020	220	204		24/10/2020	174	200	187		25/10/2020	247	45,667
02/10/2020	68	42,414			03/10/2020	49	42,317			12/10/2020	113	43,290			18/10/2020	159	44,144			19/10/2020	80	151			20/10/2020	195	199		23/10/2020	224	182	176		24/10/2020	210	45,420
01/10/2020	64	42,346			02/10/2020	66	42,268			11/10/2020	121	43,177			17/10/2020	175	43,985			18/10/2020	67	143			19/10/2020	189	188		22/10/2020	189	179	170		23/10/2020	221	45,210
30/09/2020	57	42,282			01/10/2020	59	42,202			10/10/2020	101	43,056			16/10/2020	146	43,810			17/10/2020	150	136			18/10/2020	158	176		21/10/2020	191	167	151		22/10/2020	235	44,989
29/09/2020	48	42,225			30/09/2020	71	42,143			09/10/2020	79	42,955			15/10/2020	151	43,664			16/10/2020	136	122			17/10/2020	175	161		20/10/2020	241	163	148		21/10/2020	220	44,754
28/09/2020	54	42,177			29/09/2020	71	42,072			08/10/2020	93	42,876			14/10/2020	114	43,513			15/10/2020	138	117			16/10/2020	146	149		19/10/2020	80	151	138		20/10/2020	194	44,534
27/09/2020	45	42,123			28/09/2020	13	42,001			07/10/2020	101	42,783			13/10/2020	109	43,399			14/10/2020	137	117			15/10/2020	151	138		18/10/2020	67	143	132		19/10/2020	190	44,340
26/09/2020	40	42,078			27/09/2020	17	41,988			06/10/2020	69	42,682			12/10/2020	111	43,290			13/10/2020	143	107			14/10/2020	114	133		17/10/2020	150	136	126		18/10/2020	158	44,150
25/09/2020	32	42,038			26/09/2020	34	41,971			05/10/2020	69	42,613			11/10/2020	122	43,179			12/10/2020	50	100			13/10/2020	109	122		16/10/2020	136	122	117		17/10/2020	175	43,992
24/09/2020	34	42,006			25/09/2020	35	41,937			04/10/2020	60	42,544			10/10/2020	102	43,057			11/10/2020	65	91			12/10/2020	111	113		15/10/2020	138	117	109		16/10/2020	146	43,817
23/09/2020	56	41,972			24/09/2020	40	41,902			03/10/2020	65	42,484			09/10/2020	79	42,955			10/10/2020	81	82			11/10/2020	122	104		14/10/2020	137	117	109		15/10/2020	151	43,671
22/09/2020	39	41,916			23/09/2020	37	41,862			02/10/2020	69	42,419			08/10/2020	92	42,876			09/10/2020	87	72			10/10/2020	103	102		13/10/2020	143	107	100		14/10/2020	114	43,520
21/09/2020	28	41,877			22/09/2020	37	41,825			01/10/2020	66	42,350			07/10/2020	101	42,784			08/10/2020	77	68			09/10/2020	79	97		12/10/2020	50	100	93		13/10/2020	109	43,406
20/09/2020	31	41,849			21/09/2020	11	41,788			30/09/2020	56	42,284			06/10/2020	69	42,683			07/10/2020	70	63			08/10/2020	92	91		11/10/2020	65	91	86		12/10/2020	111	43,297
19/09/2020	19	41,818			20/09/2020	18	41,777			29/09/2020	48	42,228			05/10/2020	69	42,614			06/10/2020	76	59			07/10/2020	101	82		10/10/2020	81	82	78		11/10/2020	122	43,186
18/09/2020	23	41,799			19/09/2020	27	41,759			28/09/2020	54	42,180			04/10/2020	60	42,545			05/10/2020	19	56			06/10/2020	69	77		09/10/2020	87	72	71		10/10/2020	103	43,064
17/09/2020	27	41,776			18/09/2020	27	41,732			27/09/2020	45	42,126			03/10/2020	66	42,485			04/10/2020	33	53			05/10/2020	69	75		08/10/2020	77	68	62		09/10/2020	79	42,961
16/09/2020	26	41,749			17/09/2020	21	41,705			26/09/2020	40	42,081			02/10/2020	68	42,419			03/10/2020	49	53			04/10/2020	60	71		07/10/2020	70	63	56		08/10/2020	92	42,882
15/09/2020	17	41,723			16/09/2020	20	41,684			25/09/2020	32	42,041			01/10/2020	66	42,351			02/10/2020	66	53			03/10/2020	66	65		06/10/2020	76	59	52		07/10/2020	101	42,790
14/09/2020	21	41,706			15/09/2020	27	41,664			24/09/2020	35	42,009			30/09/2020	57	42,285			01/10/2020	59	52			02/10/2020	68	62		05/10/2020	19	56	50		06/10/2020	69	42,689
13/09/2020	16	41,685			14/09/2020	9	41,637			23/09/2020	56	41,974			29/09/2020	48	42,228			30/09/2020	71	49			01/10/2020	66	60		04/10/2020	33	53	49		05/10/2020	69	42,620
12/09/2020	18	41,669			13/09/2020	5	41,628			22/09/2020	38	41,918			28/09/2020	54	42,180			29/09/2020	71	47			30/09/2020	57	58		03/10/2020	49	53	49		04/10/2020	60	42,551
11/09/2020	13	41,651			12/09/2020	9	41,623			21/09/2020	28	41,880			27/09/2020	46	42,126			28/09/2020	13	43			29/09/2020	48	54		02/10/2020	66	53	48		03/10/2020	66	42,491
10/09/2020	13	41,638			11/09/2020	6	41,614			20/09/2020	31	41,852			26/09/2020	40	42,080			27/09/2020	17	40			28/09/2020	54	49		01/10/2020	59	52	46		02/10/2020	68	42,425
09/09/2020	9	41,625			10/09/2020	14	41,608			19/09/2020	19	41,821			25/09/2020	32	42,040			26/09/2020	34	35			27/09/2020	46	45		30/09/2020	71	49	42		01/10/2020	66	42,357
08/09/2020	9	41,616			09/09/2020	8	41,594			18/09/2020	23	41,802			24/09/2020	35	42,008			25/09/2020	35	30			26/09/2020	40	44		29/09/2020	71	47	39		30/09/2020	57	42,291
07/09/2020	16	41,607			08/09/2020	32	41,586			17/09/2020	27	41,779			23/09/2020	56	41,973			24/09/2020	40	30			25/09/2020	32	43		28/09/2020	13	43	36		29/09/2020	48	42,234
06/09/2020	8	41,591			07/09/2020	3	41,554			16/09/2020	26	41,752			22/09/2020	38	41,917			23/09/2020	37				24/09/2020	35			27/09/2020	17	40	34		28/09/2020	54	42,186
05/09/2020	12	41,583			06/09/2020	2	41,551			15/09/2020	17	41,726			21/09/2020	27	41,879			22/09/2020	37				23/09/2020	56			26/09/2020	34	35	31		27/09/2020	46	42,132
04/09/2020	7	41,571			05/09/2020	12	41,549			14/09/2020	21	41,709			20/09/2020	31	41,852			21/09/2020	11				22/09/2020	38			25/09/2020	35	30	28		26/09/2020	40	42,086
03/09/2020	10	41,564			04/09/2020	10	41,537			13/09/2020	16	41,688			19/09/2020	20	41,821								21/09/2020	27			24/09/2020	40	30	28		25/09/2020	32	42,046
02/09/2020	9	41,554			03/09/2020	13	41,527			12/09/2020	18	41,672			18/09/2020	23	41,801								20/09/2020	31			23/09/2020	37	30	28		24/09/2020	35	42,014
01/09/2020	3	41,545			02/09/2020	10	41,514			11/09/2020	13	41,654													19/09/2020	20			22/09/2020	37	29	27		23/09/2020	56	41,979
31/08/2020	8	41,542			01/09/2020	3	41,504			10/09/2020	13	41,641													18/09/2020	23			21/09/2020	11	28	26		22/09/2020	38	41,923
30/08/2020	6	41,534			31/08/2020	2	41,501			09/09/2020	9	41,628													17/09/2020	27			20/09/2020	18	25	24		21/09/2020	27	41,885
29/08/2020	4	41,528			30/08/2020	1	41,499			08/09/2020	9	41,619													16/09/2020	26			19/09/2020	27	23	22		20/09/2020	31	41,858
28/08/2020	11	41,524			29/08/2020	12	41,498			07/09/2020	16	41,610													15/09/2020	17			18/09/2020	27	22	21		19/09/2020	20	41,827
27/08/2020	7	41,513			28/08/2020	9	41,486			06/09/2020	8	41,594													14/09/2020	21			17/09/2020	21	21	20		18/09/2020	23	41,807

[Squeak]

The supermarkets are a mess, although our local one wasn't too bad except for the massive queue to pay and the lack of toilet paper and bread. The lines at the bottle shops are absolutely huge as everyone tries to stock up on booze. The roads are just a car park everywhere as everyone rushes out to do things they now won't be able to do for a week.

Presumably you are allowed out of your house to go grocery shopping, though, and I don't think many people expect the supply chains to collapse. So I'm wondering if some part of the "panic buying" isn't potentially "a good thing" (let's go for a big shop now and then we won't have to go out for a week) rather than "a bad thing" (let's get in 6 months worth of bog roll in case people buying all the bog roll causes a shortage of bog roll).

Except that now people will have to go out repeatedly for whatever they couldn't get today while the shops try to replenish their pasta and toilet paper stocks.

I thought the earlier rounds of panic buying we're mostly shown to be the sorry of sensible approach you outlined - lots of people quite sensibly buying a bit extra but that little extra having the effect of overwhelming the just-in-time stocking capacity of supermarkets.

It's hard to blame individuals but it probably won't help much to keep people at home this week.

[sTeamTraen]

It's hard to blame individuals but it probably won't help much to keep people at home this week.

Well, at least the other rules are unambiguous: No exercise, and no takeaways or off-sales.

It's reminiscent of our first six-week lockdown here in Spain: People moaned a bit (we live 10 metres from the entrance to a 126 hectare park and it was frustrating to see the locked gates as we set out for our allowed trips to the shops), but the cases came down much more rapidly than in the UK.

[jimbob]

It's hard to blame individuals but it probably won't help much to keep people at home this week.

Well, at least the other rules are unambiguous: No exercise, and no takeaways or off-sales.

It's reminiscent of our first six-week lockdown here in Spain: People moaned a bit (we live 10 metres from the entrance to a 126 hectare park and it was frustrating to see the locked gates as we set out for our allowed trips to the shops), but the cases came down much more rapidly than in the UK.

Not that it would affect me, but I always wonder how people without access to a kitchen manage with the no takeaways rule. Or are deliveries still allowed?

[KAJ]

I was looking at Daily Deaths by date of death - there is a big lag

______|10/11|11/11|15/11|17/11|
03-Nov| 317 _| 332 _|_____| 352 _|
02-Nov| 310 _| 321 _|_____| 327 _|
01-Nov| 331 _| 353 _| 353_| 356 _|
31-Oct| 292 _| 297 _| 312_| 316 _|
30-Oct| 321 _| 331 _| 336_| 336 _|
29-Oct| 306 _| 309 _| 310_| 311 _|

WOW 29-Oct to 15-Nov is 17 days and it still hadn't reached its final value, may not have done by 17-Nov. I hadn't expected that big a delay.This really means we can't expect to see a decline in death rates until a number of weeks after it happens.

The data I've collected off the dashboard at different dates - hope it's tab separated if you paste but if not I have a csv that I can email

Code: Select all

snip

jimbob emailed his data (thanks!).
Publication dates were 25-10, 06-11, 11-11, 15-11, 17-11
I looked at deaths by date of death in the range 18-9 to 25-10 being the range with values for all 5 publication dates. Plotting % of max for that publication date v. lag (restricted to lag <= 20 days) gives this:

chart.png (10 KiB) Viewed 8469 times

Although some death reports are very delayed, it looks as if practically all deaths are published by 10 days after death.

[mediocrity511]

It's hard to blame individuals but it probably won't help much to keep people at home this week.

Well, at least the other rules are unambiguous: No exercise, and no takeaways or off-sales.

It's reminiscent of our first six-week lockdown here in Spain: People moaned a bit (we live 10 metres from the entrance to a 126 hectare park and it was frustrating to see the locked gates as we set out for our allowed trips to the shops), but the cases came down much more rapidly than in the UK.

Not that it would affect me, but I always wonder how people without access to a kitchen manage with the no takeaways rule. Or are deliveries still allowed?

I have friends who live in a campervan who got locked down in Spain. It was only one household memher allowed to travel to the shops, so one parent and the kids had to stay behind sat on chairs, whilst the other took the van to the shops. Lockdown rules get quite tricky when you have a non traditional living situation.

[shpalman]

WOW 29-Oct to 15-Nov is 17 days and it still hadn't reached its final value, may not have done by 17-Nov. I hadn't expected that big a delay.This really means we can't expect to see a decline in death rates until a number of weeks after it happens.

The data I've collected off the dashboard at different dates - hope it's tab separated if you paste but if not I have a csv that I can email

Code: Select all

snip

jimbob emailed his data (thanks!).
Publication dates were 25-10, 06-11, 11-11, 15-11, 17-11
I looked at deaths by date of death in the range 18-9 to 25-10 being the range with values for all 5 publication dates. Plotting % of max for that publication date v. lag (restricted to lag <= 20 days) gives this:

Although some death reports are very delayed, it looks as if practically all deaths are published by 10 days after death.

Furthermore you can see that after 4-5 days the corrections to the number are relatively minor.

There will have been some corrections recently since cases have been attributed to where they actually are, not where the GP that the subject happens to be registered with is based.

[sTeamTraen]

Not that it would affect me, but I always wonder how people without access to a kitchen manage with the no takeaways rule. Or are deliveries still allowed?

I think deliveries were allowed, but I suspect that the number of people in Spain who have no kitchen and rely on all of their meals being delivered is extremely small. Apart from anything else, it would seem to imply a budget (for the meals) that would allow someone to rent a place with at least a basic kitchen.

[jimbob]

Not that it would affect me, but I always wonder how people without access to a kitchen manage with the no takeaways rule. Or are deliveries still allowed?

I think deliveries were allowed, but I suspect that the number of people in Spain who have no kitchen and rely on all of their meals being delivered is extremely small. Apart from anything else, it would seem to imply a budget (for the meals) that would allow someone to rent a place with at least a basic kitchen.

I was also thinking of essential workers. Maybe having to stay away from home.

[Squeak]

In South Australia, at least, all the places that might do deliveries are closed for the week, so the no takeaways rule would totally cut them off. But the number of people there without access to at least a kitchenette would be extremely small, since Adelaide is a spread-out city with little in the way of high-density micro-apartments. There might be the occasional person stuck in a hotel, but even there, they'd at least have a little fridge and a kettle, even if the hotel kitchen is closed. A week of sandwiches, cous cous, and blanched vegies isn't an impossible situation.

For homeless people, kitchens are probably the least of their concerns right now but SA does seem to have made some reasonable efforts to put roofs over their heads, so I hope that most have got reasonable food access as part of those arrangements. However, I haven't seen anything specific this week yet.

[calmooney]

A new low by Carl Heneghan, he's tweeted that "Landmark Danish study shows face masks have no significant effect spectator.co.uk/article/do-mas… via @spectator". The paper (https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817) clearly states in its limitations that it made "no assessment of whether masks could decrease disease transmission from mask wearers to others". He should resign.

[Chris Preston]

Day 1 of the full lock down is winding down.

So far it seems that most people are following the rules. The normal traffic noise was non-existent.

More than 20,000 tests yesterday (more than 1% of the population), with no new cases.

[Chris Preston]

Except that now people will have to go out repeatedly for whatever they couldn't get today while the shops try to replenish their pasta and toilet paper stocks.

I thought the earlier rounds of panic buying we're mostly shown to be the sorry of sensible approach you outlined - lots of people quite sensibly buying a bit extra but that little extra having the effect of overwhelming the just-in-time stocking capacity of supermarkets.

It's hard to blame individuals but it probably won't help much to keep people at home this week.

The earlier panic buying had a lot of hoarding and people trying to profit from a black market. Back in the days when you had to line up to enter supermarkets, the same people would line up early every morning and buy their allowed 1 packet of toilet rolls, every single day. One of the supermarket chains sold 9 months worth of toilet paper in 4 weeks. After pressure was put on the online marketplaces to ban sales of toilet paper, someone contacted one of the supermarkets wanting to sell back to them more than 5000 toilet rolls they had hoarded. Yesterday, I saw person after person leaving the supermarket with 2 packets of 18 toilet rolls - for a six day lock down. As someone wrote in the paper this morning, were these people going to spend 6 days on the toilet.