cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

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shpalman
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri Dec 18, 2020 6:24 pm

I don't know what kind of new lockdown rules come in to force in Italy on the 21st, but the 24th-27th will be Red rules, 28th-30th will be Orange, 31st-3rd will be Red again, 4th will be Orange, and 5th-6th will be Red.

The rules are mainly about whether you can leave your own comune or not except for urgent reasons (with people who live in small towns of fewer than 5000 able to travel up to 30 km as long as they stay out of the cities, so they can always get to a shop) as well as whether households can mix.

The idea is basically that everyone gets to where they're going to be now and stays the f.ck there. But as you can imagine, tickets to the south for all the people who work or study up here but are from there have gotten rather scarce and expensive this weekend.

There are regions in which cases are going up again, whereas in most of the country they've just stopped going down.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:34 pm

UK mean daily cases for the last 7 days are 24,054. That's about 7% higher than the week leading up to the 5 November lockdown. There are 5 more days of slow growth to go, and then 5 days of hugging your Nan.

I'm going to predict a full lockdown on 28 December, despite which there will be 50,000 cases per day in the first 7 days of 2021, and 1,000 deaths per day in the next 7, with 40,000 deaths in the first two months of the year. Anyone want to bet on lower numbers?
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by Millennie Al » Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:20 am

In Northern Ireland, hospitals hit 105% of capacity with patents having to be treated in ambulances:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... land-wales

And the figures are still going up.

And no effective action is being taken to change things.

This is not a recipe for success.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by lpm » Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:34 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:34 pm
UK mean daily cases for the last 7 days are 24,054. That's about 7% higher than the week leading up to the 5 November lockdown. There are 5 more days of slow growth to go, and then 5 days of hugging your Nan.

I'm going to predict a full lockdown on 28 December, despite which there will be 50,000 cases per day in the first 7 days of 2021, and 1,000 deaths per day in the next 7, with 40,000 deaths in the first two months of the year. Anyone want to bet on lower numbers?
Yes, I'll bet. Cases will be up there but the vaccine will knock the death toll down a lot, even in late January. By March the death rate could be down to half what we'd expect from case numbers.

Assuming the rollout happens with the organisational efficiency we should expect from any UK government.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:56 pm

35,928 cases and 326 new deaths reported today. Sunday case numbers are usually close to the 7-day average, but deaths are typically only half. So even before the effects of yesterday's re-enactment of Escape From New York are felt, there will probably be 2,500 new deaths and 200,000 new cases reported before Christmas Day.

I cannot being to imagine what it must be like to be working in the NHS right now.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:04 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:56 pm
35,928 cases and 326 new deaths reported today. Sunday case numbers are usually close to the 7-day average, but deaths are typically only half. So even before the effects of yesterday's re-enactment of Escape From New York are felt, there will probably be 2,500 new deaths and 200,000 new cases reported before Christmas Day.

I cannot being to imagine what it must be like to be working in the NHS right now.
Doubling time is 11-12 days. This might shorten to about 7 days.

Italy's new cases and deaths meanwhile have maybe stopped decreasing (15104 today with 352 deaths) but numbers in hospital are still going down; the national figures are being spoilt by Veneto though which somehow didn't control its second wave.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by Brightonian » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:26 pm

Ireland has just moved to Level 5 (the highest): https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1230/11869 ... t-meeting/

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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by nezumi » Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:21 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:34 pm
UK mean daily cases for the last 7 days are 24,054. That's about 7% higher than the week leading up to the 5 November lockdown. There are 5 more days of slow growth to go, and then 5 days of hugging your Nan.

I'm going to predict a full lockdown on 28 December, despite which there will be 50,000 cases per day in the first 7 days of 2021, and 1,000 deaths per day in the next 7, with 40,000 deaths in the first two months of the year. Anyone want to bet on lower numbers?
Gosh, remember the grand old days of just befor Christmas when we predicted such numbers? Looks like 2021 has come early cos I'm looking at nearly 1000 deaths and 50000 new cases today. What larks!

Edit: and oh look, no new lockdown.

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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:47 am

nezumi wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:21 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:34 pm
UK mean daily cases for the last 7 days are 24,054. That's about 7% higher than the week leading up to the 5 November lockdown. There are 5 more days of slow growth to go, and then 5 days of hugging your Nan.

I'm going to predict a full lockdown on 28 December, despite which there will be 50,000 cases per day in the first 7 days of 2021, and 1,000 deaths per day in the next 7, with 40,000 deaths in the first two months of the year. Anyone want to bet on lower numbers?
Gosh, remember the grand old days of just befor Christmas when we predicted such numbers? Looks like 2021 has come early cos I'm looking at nearly 1000 deaths and 50000 new cases today. What larks!

Edit: and oh look, no new lockdown.
Reading that, I can remember some of my thought processes when writing it. I wanted to write a bigger number than 40,000 for the deaths, but it felt too awful. I'm having a moment of clarity this morning, so I'm going to say that I think the UK will be lucky to get away with 40,000 deaths just in January. :(

Even worse, there will be many more excess deaths, not due to "undiagnosed COVID" (as in March-April 2020) this time but because people will be dying of "things that they don't normally die of" due to hospital overflow --- untreated strokes, heart attacks, peritonitis.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:03 pm

stay the f.ck home what's the matter with you

Blamed on 'a "perfect storm" of good weather'.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:00 pm

A 163% rise in losses does that mean a negative number are now employed? And is that now less negative or more negative due to the "rise"?

29,684 is nearly 30,000 apparently.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by discovolante » Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:22 pm

SCOTS IN LOCKDOWN
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by Gfamily » Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:32 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:00 pm
A 163% rise in losses does that mean a negative number are now employed? And is that now less negative or more negative due to the "rise"?

29,684 is nearly 30,000 apparently.
Makes sense to me.
If X jobs were lost in 2019, and 2.63 times as many lost in 2020, that's an increase of 163% .
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by headshot » Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:23 pm

discovolante wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:22 pm
SCOTS IN LOCKDOWN
Sun front page:

It's a LOCH-Down!

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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:04 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:32 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:00 pm
A 163% rise in losses does that mean a negative number are now employed? And is that now less negative or more negative due to the "rise"?

29,684 is nearly 30,000 apparently.
Makes sense to me.
If X jobs were lost in 2019, and 2.63 times as many lost in 2020, that's an increase of 163% .
Oh I'm not saying I couldn't figure it out, I'm complaining about the weird way journalists write stuff.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:58 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:04 pm
Oh I'm not saying I couldn't figure it out, I'm complaining about the weird way journalists write stuff.
Everything has to expressed as a percentage even if to do so is mathematically meaningless, because the public believe that they understand percentages, although they will cheerily admit to total innumeracy if asked any question involving three terms, or two if they have different numbers of decimal places.
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