cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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shpalman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:54 am

Boustrophedon wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:05 am
Herainestold wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:59 pm
Vaccination doesn't stop transmission* it only ameliorates severe outcomes and not by 100% either.
*Citation needed.
Try this or this.
Gfamily wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:42 am
Today's news reports that a single Pfizer or AZ dose seems to reduce transmission by 40-50% where part-vaccinated people get an infection.

So if it reduces the chances of getting it and reduces the chance of spreading it, it should really help.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56904993
Good, so it does actually reduce transmission to some extent, according to the BBC writing about some study or other which hasn't been fully peer reviewed and which they don't even give enough details to directly google it but let's take their word for it.

I mean, they could at least have linked to PHE's press release except then it would be obvious they haven't done any actual journalism, even if they didn't want to link to the preprint
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:56 pm

Two things can be true at the same time. Vaccines are effective at preventing severe out comes, moderately effective against some transmission
AND we still need to mask, distance, avoid travel and reduce mobility, and avoid crowds.
The future is much brighter than it was even a few months ago, but we can't expect to return to the pre pandemic world.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:56 am

shpalman wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:28 am
the unlockdown has already claimed a victim

There will now be an urgent recall of this batch of pubs and this bit of road while the regulator announces that there's no link within a few days.
claimed a whole lot more now
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by wilsontown » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:51 pm

lpm wrote:44% immunity requires lockdown measures equivalent to an R=1.8 level. Which is fairly easy, current lockdown measures are probably enough to be around this.
This seems to be borne out by yesterday's graph of the change in the 7-day case average (last 60 days). You can see that once schools reopened, the previous decline in cases stopped and cases were approximately flat for a couple of weeks (partly related to increased testing?). This sorted itself out and cases began to fall steeply again, before shops and outdoor hospitality opened and the rate of decrease in cases slowed. But cases still seem to be decreasing, so it seems that the current restrictions are enough to keep things in check. It will be interesting to see if there is an acceleration in the decline over the next couple of weeks, and what happens after May 17th. Last summer there wasn't a massive effect on cases when pubs and restaurants reopened (although cases did start to slowly increase), and no-one was vaccinated at all then.
cases_29042021.png
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Grumble » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:33 pm

headshot wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:17 pm
(Seriously, DO NOT do a Google image search pilonidal sinus)
I had an operation to remove a pilonidal sinus. It wasn’t between my fingers though, I never actually saw it myself.
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by headshot » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:29 pm

Grumble wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:33 pm
headshot wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:17 pm
(Seriously, DO NOT do a Google image search pilonidal sinus)
I had an operation to remove a pilonidal sinus. It wasn’t between my fingers though, I never actually saw it myself.
Indeed. And good job avoiding the temptation to use mirrors.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:39 pm

wilsontown wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:51 pm
lpm wrote:44% immunity requires lockdown measures equivalent to an R=1.8 level. Which is fairly easy, current lockdown measures are probably enough to be around this.
This seems to be borne out by yesterday's graph of the change in the 7-day case average (last 60 days). You can see that once schools reopened, the previous decline in cases stopped and cases were approximately flat for a couple of weeks (partly related to increased testing?). This sorted itself out and cases began to fall steeply again, before shops and outdoor hospitality opened and the rate of decrease in cases slowed. But cases still seem to be decreasing, so it seems that the current restrictions are enough to keep things in check. It will be interesting to see if there is an acceleration in the decline over the next couple of weeks, and what happens after May 17th. Last summer there wasn't a massive effect on cases when pubs and restaurants reopened (although cases did start to slowly increase), and no-one was vaccinated at all then.

cases_29042021.png
So far, so good, cautiously, cautiously. I think the current lockdown measures need to be in place probably for the full summer as we vaccinate every possible Briton and push virus levels as low as they can go. I haven't been down to pub for a year, and have no plans to do so until 2022. Even outside.
The new variants are here and ready to rage. Now is not the time to drop our guard.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat May 01, 2021 12:00 am

Grumble wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:33 pm
headshot wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:17 pm
(Seriously, DO NOT do a Google image search pilonidal sinus)
I had an operation to remove a pilonidal sinus. It wasn’t between my fingers though, I never actually saw it myself.
A colleague had one. He had a week off work after the operation as sitting at his desk was right out.
Something something hammer something something nail

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sun May 02, 2021 8:19 am

shpalman wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:54 am
Boustrophedon wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:05 am
Herainestold wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:59 pm
Vaccination doesn't stop transmission* it only ameliorates severe outcomes and not by 100% either.
*Citation needed.
Try this or this.
Gfamily wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:42 am
Today's news reports that a single Pfizer or AZ dose seems to reduce transmission by 40-50% where part-vaccinated people get an infection.

So if it reduces the chances of getting it and reduces the chance of spreading it, it should really help.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56904993
Good, so it does actually reduce transmission to some extent, according to the BBC writing about some study or other which hasn't been fully peer reviewed and which they don't even give enough details to directly google it but let's take their word for it.

I mean, they could at least have linked to PHE's press release except then it would be obvious they haven't done any actual journalism, even if they didn't want to link to the preprint
A lot of words on Talk is Cheap from David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters but the important relevant bit is:
Public Health England studied more than 500,000 households in England and estimated that unvaccinated cases infected around 10% of people in their households. But that rate was nearly halved, to around 6%, if the original case had been vaccinated, with a similar reduction from either the Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines.
I would have expected unvaccinated cases to infect more than 10% of the people in their households, given that for quite a lot of the time we've been told in Italy that most cases are coming from people catching it at home, which of course ignores the fact that someone must have caught it somewhere else first to bring it into the home.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by discovolante » Sun May 02, 2021 9:29 am

I've been quite surprised to know of at least two cases where someone has caught covid and their spouse (who they share a bed with) hasn't (although in one case, the person who caught it seemed to get it off her daughter), and if the stat is accurate I wonder if it has anything to do with the suggestion that most spread seems to be from 'superspreading'.

Anyway this is just 'wot I reckon' and I'll leave the serious analysis to you stats buffs :P
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Sun May 02, 2021 12:55 pm

discovolante wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 9:29 am
I've been quite surprised to know of at least two cases where someone has caught covid and their spouse (who they share a bed with) hasn't (although in one case, the person who caught it seemed to get it off her daughter), and if the stat is accurate I wonder if it has anything to do with the suggestion that most spread seems to be from 'superspreading'.

Anyway this is just 'wot I reckon' and I'll leave the serious analysis to you stats buffs :P
Thats exactly how I read it. It spreads in clusters rather than uniformly. How that happens exactly, I do not understand.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by OffTheRock » Sun May 02, 2021 1:27 pm

I know when Guernsey had their second outbreak (Kent variant) one of the things Dr Brink said at one of the press conferences was that they were seeing a different transmission pattern in households than they saw with the outbreak in March 2020. More cases where the entire household ended up infected which they didn't really see last year.
Public health there must have that information but I'm not sure they've ever released it. The daily stats just tended to be x no of new cases, y from already identified contacts, z from an unknown source.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon May 03, 2021 7:33 am

FB_IMG_1620027146310.jpg
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Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by jaap » Mon May 03, 2021 9:34 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 7:33 am
Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.
Same here in NL:
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Dutch link

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Mon May 03, 2021 12:01 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 7:33 am
Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.
I take it you're not a big footie fan then? :D

It's perfectly possible to enjoy seeing your preferred football team doing better than another, without (a) having it define your life, and without (b) gathering in a manner than increases COVID transmission risk. So I hope it's (a) and (b) that you're thinking of as "moronic".

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon May 03, 2021 3:05 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 12:01 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 7:33 am
Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.
I take it you're not a big footie fan then? :D

It's perfectly possible to enjoy seeing your preferred football team doing better than another, without (a) having it define your life, and without (b) gathering in a manner than increases COVID transmission risk. So I hope it's (a) and (b) that you're thinking of as "moronic".
Sorry did I accidentally post a photo of someone at home, or perhaps sitting outside at a bar, with family and/or a small number of friends enjoying that their preferred football team had done better than the others and then going on to enjoy the rest of the evening in a manner consistent with both the national and regional laws and good practice regarding minimizing covid transmission?

They aren't morons. Unless of course they refer to their preferred football team using a first-person plural pronoun.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Wed May 05, 2021 5:14 pm

children should do thing says organization which exists to promote thing

Well, obviously. What else are they going to say? "Swim England says actually you know what cycling is fine"?
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Gfamily » Wed May 05, 2021 6:05 pm

shpalman wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 5:14 pm
children should do thing says organization which exists to promote thing

Well, obviously. What else are they going to say? "Swim England says actually you know what cycling is fine"?
Like in triathlons?
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Martin_B » Thu May 06, 2021 6:22 am

shpalman wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 5:14 pm
children should do thing says organization which exists to promote thing

Well, obviously. What else are they going to say? "Swim England says actually you know what cycling is fine"?
Underwater cycling?
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat May 08, 2021 12:06 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 7:33 am
Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.
Following those scenes, the authorities want to make sure they aren't repeated when Inter arrive to play Samporia this afternoon at 3pm at San Siro.

That's 3pm this afternoon at San Siro.

Don't go there, everyone!
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Sat May 08, 2021 1:58 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 12:06 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 7:33 am
Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.
Following those scenes, the authorities want to make sure they aren't repeated when Inter arrive to play Samporia this afternoon at 3pm at San Siro.

That's 3pm this afternoon at San Siro.

Don't go there, everyone!
some people waiting for a bus
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by bob sterman » Sun May 09, 2021 7:13 pm

headshot wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:29 pm
Grumble wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:33 pm
headshot wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:17 pm
(Seriously, DO NOT do a Google image search pilonidal sinus)
I had an operation to remove a pilonidal sinus. It wasn’t between my fingers though, I never actually saw it myself.
Indeed. And good job avoiding the temptation to use mirrors.
And don't watch "Call the Midwife" on BBC One tonight. They just showed one!!!

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by badger » Mon May 10, 2021 4:02 pm

shpalman wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 7:33 am

Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.
Morons they may be, but as discussed on one of the other unre(x)lockdown threads, many a learned expert has said "Outdoors is Safe" eg Prof Mark Woolhouse (SAGE), and pointed out there was no spike in cases numbers attributable to beach thronging, protests and demos of which we had quite a few here in the UK.

Yes, I'm aware that there's plenty of counter examples (MAGA events and rallies in US, though I don't know if it was the outside bit of those where transmission took place) and yes, they might still be morons to even be taking the risk, but there are experts out there who have been giving the impression that what they are doing is safe.

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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by shpalman » Mon May 10, 2021 5:49 pm

badger wrote:
Mon May 10, 2021 4:02 pm
shpalman wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 7:33 am

Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.
Morons they may be, but as discussed on one of the other unre(x)lockdown threads, many a learned expert has said "Outdoors is Safe" eg Prof Mark Woolhouse (SAGE), and pointed out there was no spike in cases numbers attributable to beach thronging, protests and demos of which we had quite a few here in the UK.

Yes, I'm aware that there's plenty of counter examples (MAGA events and rallies in US, though I don't know if it was the outside bit of those where transmission took place) and yes, they might still be morons to even be taking the risk, but there are experts out there who have been giving the impression that what they are doing is safe.
Yes I'm sure the Inter fans are all paying attention to the scientific experts on this, rather than being a bunch of shouty people just doing what they want while people whose jobs or hobbies are suspended because they would involve gatherings of people are fine with waiting a bit longer to restart.

We have distancing and mask-wearing rules even for outside. You could of course discuss whether it's doing any good since cases are only coming down slowly, and in fact Italy is almost entirely Yellow now which up until now hasn't really been strict enough to keep cases down.
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

Post by Herainestold » Mon May 10, 2021 8:22 pm

Outside is still dangerous, especially with these new more transmissable variants. There have been outside super spreader event s in America, most notoriously the Rose Garden event and the Sturgis rallies. Not as dangerous as inside poorly ventilated buildings but still a risk.

Wasn't there a football event a year ago in Italy that contributed to the first wave?

Avoid crowds, wear a mask.
Vaccination saves lives. Lockdowns stop transmission.

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