cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown

[shpalman]

Vaccination doesn't stop transmission* it only ameliorates severe outcomes and not by 100% either.

*Citation needed.

Try this or this.

Today's news reports that a single Pfizer or AZ dose seems to reduce transmission by 40-50% where part-vaccinated people get an infection.

So if it reduces the chances of getting it and reduces the chance of spreading it, it should really help.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56904993

Good, so it does actually reduce transmission to some extent, according to the BBC writing about some study or other which hasn't been fully peer reviewed and which they don't even give enough details to directly google it but let's take their word for it.

I mean, they could at least have linked to PHE's press release except then it would be obvious they haven't done any actual journalism, even if they didn't want to link to the preprint

[Herainestold]

Two things can be true at the same time. Vaccines are effective at preventing severe out comes, moderately effective against some transmission
AND we still need to mask, distance, avoid travel and reduce mobility, and avoid crowds.
The future is much brighter than it was even a few months ago, but we can't expect to return to the pre pandemic world.

[shpalman]

the unlockdown has already claimed a victim

There will now be an urgent recall of this batch of pubs and this bit of road while the regulator announces that there's no link within a few days.

claimed a whole lot more now

[wilsontown]

44% immunity requires lockdown measures equivalent to an R=1.8 level. Which is fairly easy, current lockdown measures are probably enough to be around this.

This seems to be borne out by yesterday's graph of the change in the 7-day case average (last 60 days). You can see that once schools reopened, the previous decline in cases stopped and cases were approximately flat for a couple of weeks (partly related to increased testing?). This sorted itself out and cases began to fall steeply again, before shops and outdoor hospitality opened and the rate of decrease in cases slowed. But cases still seem to be decreasing, so it seems that the current restrictions are enough to keep things in check. It will be interesting to see if there is an acceleration in the decline over the next couple of weeks, and what happens after May 17th. Last summer there wasn't a massive effect on cases when pubs and restaurants reopened (although cases did start to slowly increase), and no-one was vaccinated at all then.

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[Grumble]

(Seriously, DO NOT do a Google image search pilonidal sinus)

I had an operation to remove a pilonidal sinus. It wasn’t between my fingers though, I never actually saw it myself.

[headshot]

(Seriously, DO NOT do a Google image search pilonidal sinus)

I had an operation to remove a pilonidal sinus. It wasn’t between my fingers though, I never actually saw it myself.

Indeed. And good job avoiding the temptation to use mirrors.

[Herainestold]

44% immunity requires lockdown measures equivalent to an R=1.8 level. Which is fairly easy, current lockdown measures are probably enough to be around this.

This seems to be borne out by yesterday's graph of the change in the 7-day case average (last 60 days). You can see that once schools reopened, the previous decline in cases stopped and cases were approximately flat for a couple of weeks (partly related to increased testing?). This sorted itself out and cases began to fall steeply again, before shops and outdoor hospitality opened and the rate of decrease in cases slowed. But cases still seem to be decreasing, so it seems that the current restrictions are enough to keep things in check. It will be interesting to see if there is an acceleration in the decline over the next couple of weeks, and what happens after May 17th. Last summer there wasn't a massive effect on cases when pubs and restaurants reopened (although cases did start to slowly increase), and no-one was vaccinated at all then.

cases_29042021.png

So far, so good, cautiously, cautiously. I think the current lockdown measures need to be in place probably for the full summer as we vaccinate every possible Briton and push virus levels as low as they can go. I haven't been down to pub for a year, and have no plans to do so until 2022. Even outside.
The new variants are here and ready to rage. Now is not the time to drop our guard.

[sTeamTraen]

(Seriously, DO NOT do a Google image search pilonidal sinus)

I had an operation to remove a pilonidal sinus. It wasn’t between my fingers though, I never actually saw it myself.

A colleague had one. He had a week off work after the operation as sitting at his desk was right out.

[shpalman]

Vaccination doesn't stop transmission* it only ameliorates severe outcomes and not by 100% either.

*Citation needed.

Try this or this.

Today's news reports that a single Pfizer or AZ dose seems to reduce transmission by 40-50% where part-vaccinated people get an infection.

So if it reduces the chances of getting it and reduces the chance of spreading it, it should really help.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56904993

Good, so it does actually reduce transmission to some extent, according to the BBC writing about some study or other which hasn't been fully peer reviewed and which they don't even give enough details to directly google it but let's take their word for it.

I mean, they could at least have linked to PHE's press release except then it would be obvious they haven't done any actual journalism, even if they didn't want to link to the preprint

A lot of words on Talk is Cheap from David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters but the important relevant bit is:

Public Health England studied more than 500,000 households in England and estimated that unvaccinated cases infected around 10% of people in their households. But that rate was nearly halved, to around 6%, if the original case had been vaccinated, with a similar reduction from either the Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines.

I would have expected unvaccinated cases to infect more than 10% of the people in their households, given that for quite a lot of the time we've been told in Italy that most cases are coming from people catching it at home, which of course ignores the fact that someone must have caught it somewhere else first to bring it into the home.

[discovolante]

I've been quite surprised to know of at least two cases where someone has caught covid and their spouse (who they share a bed with) hasn't (although in one case, the person who caught it seemed to get it off her daughter), and if the stat is accurate I wonder if it has anything to do with the suggestion that most spread seems to be from 'superspreading'.

Anyway this is just 'wot I reckon' and I'll leave the serious analysis to you stats buffs

[Herainestold]

I've been quite surprised to know of at least two cases where someone has caught covid and their spouse (who they share a bed with) hasn't (although in one case, the person who caught it seemed to get it off her daughter), and if the stat is accurate I wonder if it has anything to do with the suggestion that most spread seems to be from 'superspreading'.

Anyway this is just 'wot I reckon' and I'll leave the serious analysis to you stats buffs

Thats exactly how I read it. It spreads in clusters rather than uniformly. How that happens exactly, I do not understand.

[OffTheRock]

I know when Guernsey had their second outbreak (Kent variant) one of the things Dr Brink said at one of the press conferences was that they were seeing a different transmission pattern in households than they saw with the outbreak in March 2020. More cases where the entire household ended up infected which they didn't really see last year.
Public health there must have that information but I'm not sure they've ever released it. The daily stats just tended to be x no of new cases, y from already identified contacts, z from an unknown source.

[shpalman]

FB_IMG_1620027146310.jpg (74.31 KiB) Viewed 4315 times

Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.

[jaap]

Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.

Same here in NL:

f4nx0vqa0bqo_wd640.jpg (68.56 KiB) Viewed 4291 times

Dutch link

[bob sterman]

Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.

I take it you're not a big footie fan then?

It's perfectly possible to enjoy seeing your preferred football team doing better than another, without (a) having it define your life, and without (b) gathering in a manner than increases COVID transmission risk. So I hope it's (a) and (b) that you're thinking of as "moronic".

[shpalman]

Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.

I take it you're not a big footie fan then?

It's perfectly possible to enjoy seeing your preferred football team doing better than another, without (a) having it define your life, and without (b) gathering in a manner than increases COVID transmission risk. So I hope it's (a) and (b) that you're thinking of as "moronic".

Sorry did I accidentally post a photo of someone at home, or perhaps sitting outside at a bar, with family and/or a small number of friends enjoying that their preferred football team had done better than the others and then going on to enjoy the rest of the evening in a manner consistent with both the national and regional laws and good practice regarding minimizing covid transmission?

They aren't morons. Unless of course they refer to their preferred football team using a first-person plural pronoun.

[shpalman]

children should do thing says organization which exists to promote thing

Well, obviously. What else are they going to say? "Swim England says actually you know what cycling is fine"?

[Gfamily]

children should do thing says organization which exists to promote thing

Well, obviously. What else are they going to say? "Swim England says actually you know what cycling is fine"?

Like in triathlons?

[Martin_B]

children should do thing says organization which exists to promote thing

Well, obviously. What else are they going to say? "Swim England says actually you know what cycling is fine"?

Underwater cycling?

[shpalman]

Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.

Following those scenes, the authorities want to make sure they aren't repeated when Inter arrive to play Samporia this afternoon at 3pm at San Siro.

That's 3pm this afternoon at San Siro.

Don't go there, everyone!

[shpalman]

Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.

Following those scenes, the authorities want to make sure they aren't repeated when Inter arrive to play Samporia this afternoon at 3pm at San Siro.

That's 3pm this afternoon at San Siro.

Don't go there, everyone!

some people waiting for a bus

[bob sterman]

(Seriously, DO NOT do a Google image search pilonidal sinus)

I had an operation to remove a pilonidal sinus. It wasn’t between my fingers though, I never actually saw it myself.

Indeed. And good job avoiding the temptation to use mirrors.

And don't watch "Call the Midwife" on BBC One tonight. They just showed one!!!

[badger]

Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.

Morons they may be, but as discussed on one of the other unre(x)lockdown threads, many a learned expert has said "Outdoors is Safe" eg Prof Mark Woolhouse (SAGE), and pointed out there was no spike in cases numbers attributable to beach thronging, protests and demos of which we had quite a few here in the UK.

Yes, I'm aware that there's plenty of counter examples (MAGA events and rallies in US, though I don't know if it was the outside bit of those where transmission took place) and yes, they might still be morons to even be taking the risk, but there are experts out there who have been giving the impression that what they are doing is safe.

[shpalman]

Morons who define their lives around preferring one football team as compared to other football teams enjoying that their preferred football team has been classified as better than the other football teams this year, yesterday.

Morons they may be, but as discussed on one of the other unre(x)lockdown threads, many a learned expert has said "Outdoors is Safe" eg Prof Mark Woolhouse (SAGE), and pointed out there was no spike in cases numbers attributable to beach thronging, protests and demos of which we had quite a few here in the UK.

Yes, I'm aware that there's plenty of counter examples (MAGA events and rallies in US, though I don't know if it was the outside bit of those where transmission took place) and yes, they might still be morons to even be taking the risk, but there are experts out there who have been giving the impression that what they are doing is safe.

Yes I'm sure the Inter fans are all paying attention to the scientific experts on this, rather than being a bunch of shouty people just doing what they want while people whose jobs or hobbies are suspended because they would involve gatherings of people are fine with waiting a bit longer to restart.

We have distancing and mask-wearing rules even for outside. You could of course discuss whether it's doing any good since cases are only coming down slowly, and in fact Italy is almost entirely Yellow now which up until now hasn't really been strict enough to keep cases down.

[Herainestold]

Outside is still dangerous, especially with these new more transmissable variants. There have been outside super spreader event s in America, most notoriously the Rose Garden event and the Sturgis rallies. Not as dangerous as inside poorly ventilated buildings but still a risk.

Wasn't there a football event a year ago in Italy that contributed to the first wave?

Avoid crowds, wear a mask.