The latest headline daily figures from the UK government dashboard are: 988 patients admitted to hospital and 147 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.lpm wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 6:04 pmHaven't time to read it, but fundamentally this isn't how the endemic world will work.
Waning immunity leads to reinfection which re-establishes immunity.
And of course boosters can be used for vulnerable, over 80s etc
1,000 deaths a week implies something crazy like 25 million reinfections a year. A third of the population.
Never going to happen. A wave sweeps through the nightclubs or whatever, then dies out when immunity returns for that age group or geographical location.
Almost all of those are over 18, and 95-97 per cent of that population have antibodies. The PHE data shows that the hospital admissions aren’t the last of the population who weren’t vaccinated. We’re not going to get a significantly more immune population (unless everyone gets regular boosters).
About 147 deaths per day brings us to a bit over 50 000 deaths per year. Apparently, the government are expecting about 50 000 deaths per year as the new normal: https://inews.co.uk/news/boris-johnson- ... el-1170069
Circa 50 000 is enormously less than what would have happened pre-vaccination and with current levels of social distancing.
About a quarter of the population being infected each year is, as far as I remember, what usually happens with seasonal influenza. Vaccination is reducing transmission but not stopping it outright. Doesn’t seem bonkers to me.