The latest headline daily figures from the UK government dashboard are: 988 patients admitted to hospital and 147 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.lpm wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 6:04 pmHaven't time to read it, but fundamentally this isn't how the endemic world will work.
Waning immunity leads to reinfection which re-establishes immunity.
And of course boosters can be used for vulnerable, over 80s etc
1,000 deaths a week implies something crazy like 25 million reinfections a year. A third of the population.
Never going to happen. A wave sweeps through the nightclubs or whatever, then dies out when immunity returns for that age group or geographical location.
Self correcting.
Almost all of those are over 18, and 95-97 per cent of that population have antibodies. The PHE data shows that the hospital admissions aren’t the last of the population who weren’t vaccinated. We’re not going to get a significantly more immune population (unless everyone gets regular boosters).
About 147 deaths per day brings us to a bit over 50 000 deaths per year. Apparently, the government are expecting about 50 000 deaths per year as the new normal: https://inews.co.uk/news/boris-johnson- ... el-1170069
Circa 50 000 is enormously less than what would have happened pre-vaccination and with current levels of social distancing.
About a quarter of the population being infected each year is, as far as I remember, what usually happens with seasonal influenza. Vaccination is reducing transmission but not stopping it outright. Doesn’t seem bonkers to me.