Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:44 pm


raven
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by raven » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:27 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:46 pm
If there are going to be restrictions placed on the use of the AZ vaccine with younger age groups - this is going to cause massive problems for the developing world.

This was supposed to be the vaccine that was affordable - sold on a non-profit basis - to low and middle-income countries. And these countries - because of the age structure of their populations - are those where a larger proportion of vaccinations would be in younger age groups.
Yep. It really sucks that AZ has hit this problem.

The EMA press release says most of the cases are women under 65. This is the demographic that take the pill and a quick google suggests the combined pill increases the risk of clots by 2 to 6 times, but I don't think many women avoid the pill because of that. Is that comparable to the incidence after AZ? I can't find base incidence of thrombosis to tell.

ETA: But I guess the clotting associated with the pill might be less serious. More DVT in the legs, less CVS and pulmonary clots perhaps.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Gfamily » Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:23 pm

raven wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:27 pm
The EMA press release says most of the cases are women under 65. This is the demographic that take the pill and a quick google suggests the combined pill increases the risk of clots by 2 to 6 times, but I don't think many women avoid the pill because of that. Is that comparable to the incidence after AZ? I can't find base incidence of thrombosis to tell.

ETA: But I guess the clotting associated with the pill might be less serious. More DVT in the legs, less CVS and pulmonary clots perhaps.
I think a specific difference is that in the AZ case, there is a close relation between the vaccination and the blood clot event - whereas the pill is likely to have been taken for an extended period before any problems emerge with a clot.

Overall, the risk from the pill is significantly higher, but the perception of risk differs.
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Woodchopper
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:25 am

raven wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:27 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:46 pm
If there are going to be restrictions placed on the use of the AZ vaccine with younger age groups - this is going to cause massive problems for the developing world.

This was supposed to be the vaccine that was affordable - sold on a non-profit basis - to low and middle-income countries. And these countries - because of the age structure of their populations - are those where a larger proportion of vaccinations would be in younger age groups.
Yep. It really sucks that AZ has hit this problem.

The EMA press release says most of the cases are women under 65. This is the demographic that take the pill and a quick google suggests the combined pill increases the risk of clots by 2 to 6 times, but I don't think many women avoid the pill because of that. Is that comparable to the incidence after AZ? I can't find base incidence of thrombosis to tell.

ETA: But I guess the clotting associated with the pill might be less serious. More DVT in the legs, less CVS and pulmonary clots perhaps.
I think that there is a different calculation. An unplanned pregnancy brings risks of blood clotting and of course may other health and social problems. An individual woman and her doctor might decide that taking hormones is the most effective way of avoiding pregnancy. Other methods are available but they can involve severe side effects for some, or having to trust others to be careful.

With the vaccine, if stocks can be switched between different producers without affecting overall vaccination rates then an rare risk is reduced with no cost. Of course that is a big 'if' and the calculation won't be cost free if reduced use of the AZ vaccine reduces the overall speed of vaccination.

Another consideration is whether uptake of all vaccines will decrease if people perceive that the authorities aren't being very very careful.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Sciolus » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:31 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:25 am
With the vaccine, if stocks can be switched between different producers without affecting overall vaccination rates then an rare risk is reduced with no cost. Of course that is a big 'if' and the calculation won't be cost free if reduced use of the AZ vaccine reduces the overall speed of vaccination.
That also assumes that other vaccines don't also turn out to have severe but exceedingly rare adverse side-effects once a few tens of millions of doses have been administered. (They probably will.)

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by shpalman » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:14 pm

molto tricky

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bob sterman
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by bob sterman » Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:53 pm

It's another adenovirus vector vaccine isn't it?

I know the vaccines aren't IV but...

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17148587/
"Acute thrombocytopenia has been consistently reported following intravenous administration of adenovirus"

"...adenovirus induces platelet activation and promotes the formation of platelet-leukocyte aggregates both in vitro and in vivo."

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:02 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:53 pm
It's another adenovirus vector vaccine isn't it?

I know the vaccines aren't IV but...

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17148587/
"Acute thrombocytopenia has been consistently reported following intravenous administration of adenovirus"

"...adenovirus induces platelet activation and promotes the formation of platelet-leukocyte aggregates both in vitro and in vivo."
Sputnik V is an adenovirus based vaccine and has no blood clot issues.

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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine

Post by headshot » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:49 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:02 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:53 pm
It's another adenovirus vector vaccine isn't it?

I know the vaccines aren't IV but...

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17148587/
"Acute thrombocytopenia has been consistently reported following intravenous administration of adenovirus"

"...adenovirus induces platelet activation and promotes the formation of platelet-leukocyte aggregates both in vitro and in vivo."
Sputnik V is an adenovirus based vaccine and has no blood clot issues.
What you don’t know can’t hurt you...

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