The deal may boost New Zealand’s GDP by $970m or around 0.3%. However, last year’s analysis by the UK government found that its effect on Britain’s GDP would probably have “limited effect … in the long run” – being between a positive growth of 0.01% or negative growth of -0.01%.
So it's such a small effect that it's probably going to be too small to measure.
plodder wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:36 am
You got a better prediction?
It won't be a big enough amount of money for it be worth me getting into an argument about this. You will get some cheaper decent wine out of it. There's a little benefit for you. It will probably also help on the path to joining this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehen ... artnership
plodder wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:36 am
You got a better prediction?
It won't be a big enough amount of money for it be worth me getting into an argument about this. You will get some cheaper decent wine out of it. There's a little benefit for you. It will probably also help on the path to joining this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehen ... artnership
so why poo-poo the gravity model before conceding the point?
plodder wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:36 am
You got a better prediction?
You will get some cheaper decent wine out of it.
Import Duties on wines up to 15% are in the region of £10 - £12 /hectolitre.
So at best the super duper saving will be 9p per bottle of NZ wine.
Compared to the £2.86 Excise duties, this is negligible.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
TimW wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:45 am
Think of the exports though. The Kiwis are desperate for some innovative jams.
don’t be facetious. we’re a major arms exporter and the NZ military is famous for its expansionist ambitions. aircraft carriers, submarines, cruise missiles - they’ll snap em up.
TimW wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:45 am
Think of the exports though. The Kiwis are desperate for some innovative jams.
don’t be facetious. we’re a major arms exporter and the NZ military is famous for its expansionist ambitions. aircraft carriers, submarines, cruise missiles - they’ll snap em up.
Yes, they've got to maintain their hold on Gondor and deter the expansionist desires of Mordor somehow.
so why poo-poo the gravity model before conceding the point?
Because they were used to make very wrong predictions in the past, so I wouldn't treat treasury predictions as facts.
And in the very next breath you agree with them and refuse to provide anything better - I wouldn’t treat your non-predictions as fact either. What to do with these endless piles of b.llsh.t?
You agreed with the treasury it would not be measurable enough to bother arguing the toss. At least the treasury could be bothered to show their working.
As sh.tty as the old establishment was, these new guys are also establishment as f.ck, but they're stupid c.nts to boot.
I'll Ding Dong if Thatcher's really dead along with the best of them, but imagine if the man behind the curtain was Boris f.cking Johnson and the munchkins seem to really like him.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
You don't see the bizarre contrast between membership of one trading bloc being a bad thing, but claiming that a benefit of leaving it is that it helps us join a different one?
sheldrake wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:54 am
To be fair they probably used the same gravity models with mis-set parameters that generated all the wrong predictions before the referendum.
I'm in the market for a comprehensive list of failed predictions if you have one to hand.
I hadn't been thinking of them, but now that you've mentioned gravity models with mis-set parameters being responsible I'd be very interested to see how that list of failures breaks down by use of a gravity model or not. If you could also explain what's wrong with the parameters used and what the correctly-set parameters would have been, that would be great but obviously I appreciate I'm asking a lot here and you only have so much time to spare.
