Plan C

[shpalman]

There's also, they deny, a Plan C

[Stranger Mouse]

Is there a plan which stops maskless tw.ts walking directly into you while talking on the phone or to their friends loudly and spreading f.cking plague everywhere? Because I’m starting to get really pissed off with it.

[OffTheRock]

“I think what Patrick saying is always ... oint yet.”

With every ambulance trust in the country on black alert, ambulances queueing outside EDs and a lot of trusts currently experiencing extreme pressures, what exactly would be the right time to act? What is the criteria that makes them think 'this is bad, we should probably try and do something'? And those problems are occurring now based on case figures from 2-3 weeks ago I'd guess. It's going to get worse before it gets better because cases have gone up since then so admissions are still going to go up.

This government seem to actively want people to die. It doesn't seem to be at all bothered whether it's from covid or whether it's from something else that you might have survived if you weren't in the back of an ambulance in a queue outside ED.

I can genuinely believe that they haven't thought about plan C though.

[lpm]

Why is the current situation worse than early September? Covid hospitalizations were higher then, is it that other things are higher now?

[OffTheRock]

Why is the current situation worse than early September? Covid hospitalizations were higher then, is it that other things are higher now?

Other things were bad then too, but we’ve been bouncing in and out of black alert since August. And covid issues in hospital are more than just the the number of people in a bed.

For obvious reasons you can’t stick covid patients in normal wards, the need to go on a ‘hot’ ward. You have 28 beds on a ward and 28 covid patients, you are fine. You get 4 more admissions that day and you have to shut another whole ward which gives you 56 beds for 32 patients but the rest of the beds can’t be used for non covid patients. We have 20 fewer covid patients than we did when we peaked last month, but it’s still taking out 2 wards that would in non covid timesvwould be in use. And the number of patients has started rising again.
In addition to that, high cases outside hospital increase the chances of non-covid patients being admitted who have been exposed, but are yet contagious starting an outbreak on a non-covid ward. It also means that despite almost all of our staff being vaccinated, we have a lot of staff off with Covid. And a lot more staff off because their school age children have covid. And staff off because of burn out.
A huge shortage of care home staffing, (part covid, part not covid) means we have a huge number of patients that could be discharged, but have nowhere to go. And because of the waiting lists and not being able to do routine stuff during the last covid peaks, the patients that do come through the door are sicker and more complex and need longer in hospital.

[Herainestold]

We really need to reduce community transmission. What is the best way to do that?

[jdc]

We really need to reduce community transmission. What is the best way to do that?

A Sun-Thu lockdown.

I wouldn't have to go into work and I could still do Friday pub and Saturday football. 21 Nov to 6 Dec would also be OK as I've nothing in the diary at the mo.

[Herainestold]

We really need to reduce community transmission. What is the best way to do that?

A Sun-Thu lockdown.

I wouldn't have to go into work and I could still do Friday pub and Saturday football. 21 Nov to 6 Dec would also be OK as I've nothing in the diary at the mo.

Yes, I will recommend that it is designed around your schedule, please submit your calendar.

[jdc]

We really need to reduce community transmission. What is the best way to do that?

A Sun-Thu lockdown.

I wouldn't have to go into work and I could still do Friday pub and Saturday football. 21 Nov to 6 Dec would also be OK as I've nothing in the diary at the mo.

Yes, I will recommend that it is designed around your schedule, please submit your calendar.

5th Nov and 17 Dec are the two crucial dates to avoid. Please also try to avoid locking down 30 Oct, 4-7 Nov, 14 Nov, 20 Nov, 7 & 11 Dec, 26 Dec.

We can close schools, as I don't have any childcare responsibilities. Bring back masks as I'm not fussed about wearing one. Proof of vaccine to enter venues is OK cos I've got my letter.

[shpalman]

Don't forget the travel restrictions, I don't want any of you coming over here.

[Herainestold]

Don't forget the travel restrictions, I don't want any of you coming over here.

I would leave and live somewhere safer in a heart beat, if I could.

But yeah, I wouldn't blame EU countries if they banned UK people.

[OffTheRock]

Don't forget the travel restrictions, I don't want any of you coming over here.

Not even if I've had 3 jabs? I fancy a trip somewhere with a bit less covid than here. Which should leave most of the world to choose from.

[shpalman]

Don't forget the travel restrictions, I don't want any of you coming over here.

Not even if I've had 3 jabs? I fancy a trip somewhere with a bit less covid than here. Which should leave most of the world to choose from.

Oh it's got nothing to do with covid.

[Herainestold]

I agree. We absolutely should not need to consider a Plan C, one in which we shut stuff down, stop people seeing their loved ones, close the pubs, ruin Christmas. And we can make it all but certain that we don’t have to do that if we take small, sensible precautions now. Hopefully enough elderly people will stand in cold car parks to get their boosters; but let’s not rely on it entirely.

I disagree. If we were to implement plan C now we could nip this thing in the bud and guarantee a reasonable Christmas with only minor restrictions.

https://unherd.com/2021/10/how-we-can-e ... christmas/

[shpalman]

Chief scientific adviser for Department of Health refers to tougher proposal beyond ‘plan B’ that has ‘not been extensively worked up’

[jdc]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1452920527945969665

% of English people who would support bringing back...

Masks on transport: 81%
Masks in shops: 76%
Social distancing in pubs/restaurants: 67%
2m rule: 59%
Rule of 6 indoors: 42%
No large events: 42%
No household mixing indoors: 30%
Full lockdown: 20%

The proportion who'd support bringing back masks in shops seems to be a lot larger than the proportion of people voluntarily wearing masks in the shops I've been in. Ditto transport.

[jdc]

I agree. We absolutely should not need to consider a Plan C, one in which we shut stuff down, stop people seeing their loved ones, close the pubs, ruin Christmas. And we can make it all but certain that we don’t have to do that if we take small, sensible precautions now. Hopefully enough elderly people will stand in cold car parks to get their boosters; but let’s not rely on it entirely.

I disagree. If we were to implement plan C now we could nip this thing in the bud and guarantee a reasonable Christmas with only minor restrictions.

https://unherd.com/2021/10/how-we-can-e ... christmas/

Amazing comment from Graham Stull btl. Vaccines suppressing the production of T- and B-cell immunity was m' favourite bit. Whole thing under a spoiler for those too lazy to open the link and scroll down.

Spoiler:

I am sorry to have to write this in a comment on an Unherd article, but I find the ‘contributions’ of Mr Chivers on this subject to be of such poor quality that they are of questionable value to this forum, especially as the magazine’s anchor for an issue as important as COVID responses.
I am almost too fatigued, to go through the points he makes and unpick them for the nonsense they clearly are. After 20 months of this garbage thinking, which has so patently failed in its every iteration, for which the evidence exists by the tonne, I am worn out rebutting people. But here the essential points, one last time:
Lockdowns don’t work (very well). Even to the extent they ever could, in thoery, we are well past that point today. The disease is now endemic. Everyone will get COVID, most will develop natural immunity and recovery fully. A small number, mostly those past normal life expectancy, will die. That’s kind of sad but not really.
But lockdowns do cause harm. They ruin our economies, drive people (esp the young) into depression and anxiety. They concentrate economic power among large companies and Big Tech. They reduce the flow of goods and services in our economies and make us poorer. They inhibit the sick from seeking genuinely beneficial medical care when needed. They disproportionately impact the disadvantaged, especially children.
Masks don’t work. At least not very well. Especially when imposed on people who would otherwise not wear them. This is because the virus doesn’t transmit asymptomatically, so the best advice is for sick people to stay home (alway good advice, btw). To the extent we have any idea how it transmits, it’s thought to be through aerosolised particles so tiny that nothing short of a hazmat suit will make much difference. Or it could be through the manifold animal reservoirs that now exists in every patch of woods from New Brunswick across the Bering Straights and all the way to Brittany. We don’t really know – after all SARS-CoV-2 has never been isolated. But from the epidiomological data we know masks don’t work.
But masks do cause harm. They inhibit human contact and expression. They hamper children from developing cognitive skills. They deaden our souls by robbing us of the ability to smile at strangers we pass in the park. Finally, they cost money and resources to make, and they pollute our landscapes.
The vaccines don’t work (very well). They provide some short term immunity through S antibody production, which wans to almost nothing after 11 months. Boosters may revitalise the protective effect, and therefore be effective for a small number of vulnerable population as a stop-gap measure. But mutation of the virus will almost certainly make the current vaccines redundant the longer we choose to drag this ‘pandemic’ out. They may also inhibit the production of more durable N antibodies or suppress the production of T- and B-cell immunity, which is the true key to ending COVID. The best we can hope for by doubling down on mass vaccination is an endless cycle of booster shots, piling ever more toxins into our bodies and enriching Big Pharma in a sad, dystopian cycle of medical addiction and immuno-suppresion.
But the vaccines do cause harm. They cost billions of euros/dollars/pounds to produce, diverting vital economic resources away from our economies and from the truly vulnerable. Short term adverse effects, while low in absolute terms, are relatively high – and by ‘relatively’ I mean an order of magnitude higher than for all other vaccines currently approved. These include fatigue, nausea, myocarditis, and my personal favourite: sudden death. Long term effects, in particular concerning immuno-suppression in the case of mRNA ‘vaccines’, are unknown, but there are at least theoretical pathways to imagine they could cause harm on an apocalyptic scale.
Vaccine mandates / passports don’t work. First, because the vaccines don’t work (see above). Second, because they are self-defeating in the signalling they send to the vaccine hesitant – if this jab is so good for me, why are you trying to force me to take it?
But vaccine mandates / passports do cause harm. They set truly dangerous precedents regarding medical autonomy and patients rights, not to mention personal privacy and liberty. This have always been important concerns, but in the age of digitalisation, the only ones who would not shy away form the dangers of medical-based IDs of this kind are fools and tyrants. Vaccine compulsion also divides us, and we are already far too divided. Worst of all, it creates the popular myth that the human body in its natural state is unclean, sullied and requires a State-sanctioned ceremony to be purified.
I’ll stop here. Please, Unherd, stop giving the podium to Tom Chivers on this issue. Give it to Freddie Sayers or someone with a brain.

[Bird on a Fire]

A Sun-Thu lockdown.

I wouldn't have to go into work and I could still do Friday pub and Saturday football. 21 Nov to 6 Dec would also be OK as I've nothing in the diary at the mo.

Yes, I will recommend that it is designed around your schedule, please submit your calendar.

5th Nov and 17 Dec are the two crucial dates to avoid. Please also try to avoid locking down 30 Oct, 4-7 Nov, 14 Nov, 20 Nov, 7 & 11 Dec, 26 Dec.

We can close schools, as I don't have any childcare responsibilities. Bring back masks as I'm not fussed about wearing one. Proof of vaccine to enter venues is OK cos I've got my letter.

I'm not even sure when I'm meant to be wearing a mask to be honest. (Portugal)

I just put mine on when I'm inside. Staff have to wear them so it's only fair I do to. But it's a bit weird sitting masked in a restaurant till the food arrives.

[Bird on a Fire]

Don't forget the travel restrictions, I don't want any of you coming over here.

Not even if I've had 3 jabs? I fancy a trip somewhere with a bit less covid than here. Which should leave most of the world to choose from.
[/quote]

Portugal is happy to have you! But hurry up because the weather's turning crap on Friday and then we'll all have to breathe your diseased Plague Island breath.

[Herainestold]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1452920527945969665

% of English people who would support bringing back...

Masks on transport: 81%
Masks in shops: 76%
Social distancing in pubs/restaurants: 67%
2m rule: 59%
Rule of 6 indoors: 42%
No large events: 42%
No household mixing indoors: 30%
Full lockdown: 20%

The proportion who'd support bringing back masks in shops seems to be a lot larger than the proportion of people voluntarily wearing masks in the shops I've been in. Ditto transport.

We imagine we are individuals but we are all really herd animals. People realize that it would be a good idea to wear a mask, but don't feel comfortable until everybody else is wearing one too. Mask mandates achieve that by telling people to do what they really want to do anyway.

Bit disappointed in the low support for lockdown. We could put this country in a much better place in a matter of weeks with a robust lockdown.

[OffTheRock]

Don't forget the travel restrictions, I don't want any of you coming over here.

They heard you and relaxed the current travel restrictions.

[shpalman]

Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week

No 10 insisted there were no imminent plans to bring in more measures after plan B measures were announced for England this week but cabinet minister Michael Gove, who chaired a Cobra meeting on Friday, said the government had been presented with some “very challenging information” about the speed of the spread.

[bob sterman]

"Plan C" could see such extraordinary measures as table service in pubs...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 73452.html

The virus doesn't stand a chance!!!

[headshot]

Not sure how there’ll be a Plan C if the PM doesn’t bother to attend COBRA meetings:

FD7EE26E-79DA-4808-A79E-D91F927168AE.jpeg (37.36 KiB) Viewed 2257 times

[jimbob]

Not sure how there’ll be a Plan C if the PM doesn’t bother to attend COBRA meetings: FD7EE26E-79DA-4808-A79E-D91F927168AE.jpeg

It's like March 2020 all over again. Johnson avoiding any decisions. Even ones that are obvious. And Omicron doubling in less than 2 days in most parts of the country