The Invasion of Ukraine

[Stranger Mouse]

Bill Browder isn’t impressed https://twitter.com/billbrowder/status/ ... 41638?s=21

[lpm]

Just to make sure everyone is clear on the subject, Russia's annexation of eastern Ukraine includes areas that are on the Ukraine side of the current line of actual control, including places like Mariupol and Slovyansk, both sizeable cities.

The separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk have long claimed a larger region than they control. But the current news seems to be that Putin has not made clear what borders he recognises. If he was explicitly claiming a larger area, that would be news. I can't find any news that Russian troops have crossed the line of control, either. That would be massive news.

Putin has deliberately made it ambiguous.

For now he's taken the thinnest salami slice, the next slice is to f.ck around with that line of control.

[lpm]

Sanctioning oligarchs is never going to cut it. They have ways round it, they have proxies to handle their money. For sanctions to work - and they must be made to work - they have to target Russia as a whole. It is necessary to make the Russians howl, until either depose Putin or are simply too bankrupt to inflict major harm. Anything less and Putin will regard it as permission to go even further.

It doesn't matter if we like the idea of a new cold war or not. We've got one, we've got one because Putin has decided to restore the Russian Empire to its nineteenth century status. The choices are to fight back now, or to surrender, only to be forced to make that choice again and again with fewer and fewer allies each time as Putin picks them off one by one. Appeasement simply does not work. Fighting back early with very tough sanctions won't be pleasant, but it won't be as unpleasant as leaving it until later and being forced to fight back with armies and navies and air forces.

As for the oligarchs, the way to hurt them is to drive them out, to stop them using the west as their playground. They steal their money in Russia, but they don't want to spend their time their, or among ordinary Russians. Until Putin's armies are out of Ukraine, the only visas we should offer Russians should be humanitarian ones. The kleptocrats should be expelled. The degree to which they and their stolen wealth has been welcomed in the west is inexcusable, and has to end.

This.

But obviously London is getting rich on laundering the stolen assets and the Tory Party is bought and paid for and the media has its own links.

Tepid is what we're going to get.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Another thing to bear in mind is just how tiny and unimportant the UK is now, outside of the EU. If the US, EU and UK all imposed the same harsh sanctions at the same time, that might make a difference, but even if the UK did go full throttle, it would make such little difference to anything.

Johnson really is a sh.t.

[plodder]

It is necessary to make the Russians howl, until either depose Putin or are simply too bankrupt to inflict major harm. Anything less and Putin will regard it as permission to go even further.

It doesn't matter if we like the idea of a new cold war or not. We've got one, we've got one because Putin has decided to restore the Russian Empire to its nineteenth century status. The choices are to fight back now, or to surrender, only to be forced to make that choice again and again with fewer and fewer allies each time as Putin picks them off one by one. Appeasement simply does not work.

This.

But obviously London is getting rich on laundering the stolen assets and the Tory Party is bought and paid for and the media has its own links.

Tepid is what we're going to get.

And lots of new thigh rubbing, so there's that.

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/carryonkeith/status ... 2617345033

It's just as well Putin isn't on Universal Credit, otherwise he might have had to deal with a meaningful sanction.

[EACLucifer]

Just to make sure everyone is clear on the subject, Russia's annexation of eastern Ukraine includes areas that are on the Ukraine side of the current line of actual control, including places like Mariupol and Slovyansk, both sizeable cities.

The separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk have long claimed a larger region than they control. But the current news seems to be that Putin has not made clear what borders he recognises. If he was explicitly claiming a larger area, that would be news. I can't find any news that Russian troops have crossed the line of control, either. That would be massive news.

There are no separatists. There wasn't any real separatist movement before the Russian invasion, and in areas they captured which were subsequently liberated, there has not been resistance to Ukraine. They were always Russians, working for Putin and calling in substantial armament and resources from Russia, and the puppets Putin has just backed lay claim to the entirety of the oblasts they have partially occupied - which includes places like Mariupol and Slovyansk.

[EACLucifer]

Another thing to bear in mind is just how tiny and unimportant the UK is now, outside of the EU. If the US, EU and UK all imposed the same harsh sanctions at the same time, that might make a difference, but even if the UK did go full throttle, it would make such little difference to anything.

It would make a difference to the thieving shits who treat London like their playground.

Johnson really is a sh.t.

Wasn't the big influx of oligarchs into London while he was mayor? He's certainly the kind of person to constantly suck up to them.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Another thing to bear in mind is just how tiny and unimportant the UK is now, outside of the EU. If the US, EU and UK all imposed the same harsh sanctions at the same time, that might make a difference, but even if the UK did go full throttle, it would make such little difference to anything.

It would make a difference to the thieving shits who treat London like their playground.

Yeah, I thought that as soon as I clicked submit tbh

Johnson really is a sh.t.

Wasn't the big influx of oligarchs into London while he was mayor? He's certainly the kind of person to constantly suck up to them.

Sounds about right. He probably slept with at least several of them.

[EACLucifer]

Another thing to bear in mind is just how tiny and unimportant the UK is now, outside of the EU. If the US, EU and UK all imposed the same harsh sanctions at the same time, that might make a difference, but even if the UK did go full throttle, it would make such little difference to anything.

It would make a difference to the thieving shits who treat London like their playground.

Yeah, I thought that as soon as I clicked submit tbh

Not having a go here, just using this as a jumping off point. Is the UK insignificant in terms of volume of trade with Russia? Quite possibly, especially as Putin isn't acting remotely rationally, so rational concerns don't really apply.

On the other hand, we're so small and insignificant that our GDP is only twice that of Russia...yep, about twice that of Russia. We should be using some of that wealth to properly equip Ukraine. We're upgrading Challenger Twos to Challenger Threes, but we aren't upgrading all of them, so why not send the rest to Ukraine for free? We've got rather more than just N-LAWs we could send, including just sending money. We could fund Russian Language web content to undermine Putin's monopoly on information, cut generous deals with states that might be tempted to side with Russia to encourage them to do otherwise, and so on.

All it takes is a leadership that recognises we can't just stick to business as usual when a revanchist dictator is moving tanks and troops into other countries, based on beliefs that place many countries in his crosshairs.

All it takes is a leadership willing to see the big picture, so yeah, not going to happen

[Stranger Mouse]

Right! That does it! Sue Gray will have to send Putin a questionnaire.

[Stranger Mouse]

The EU institutes travel bans and asset freezes on every member of the Duma

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1 ... 71555?s=21

[EACLucifer]

The EU institutes travel bans and asset freezes on every member of the Duma

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1 ... 71555?s=21

It's better than I feared, but they need to add families, mistresses etc to the lists, or they will find ways around it too easily. It's a start, though, but it needs following up with more.

[EACLucifer]

It's worth noting that throughout these last few days, the Russians have been firing on government-controlled Ukraine quite heavily, which has caused some injuries and deaths. Right now, the Schastya power plant is burning from Russian shelling. Spare a thought for the Ukrainian soldiers who are forced to endure this shelling unable to return fire as Putin would use that to excuse yet further invasion.

ETA: I've got a request to make. On social media in general, including this forum, feel free to share details of Russian troop and vehicle movements and so on. Do not in any circumstances do the same for Ukrainian forces, except for things like official announcements from their armed forces.

[Bird on a Fire]

It would make a difference to the thieving shits who treat London like their playground.

Yeah, I thought that as soon as I clicked submit tbh

Not having a go here, just using this as a jumping off point. Is the UK insignificant in terms of volume of trade with Russia? Quite possibly, especially as Putin isn't acting remotely rationally, so rational concerns don't really apply.

On the other hand, we're so small and insignificant that our GDP is only twice that of Russia...yep, about twice that of Russia. We should be using some of that wealth to properly equip Ukraine. We're upgrading Challenger Twos to Challenger Threes, but we aren't upgrading all of them, so why not send the rest to Ukraine for free? We've got rather more than just N-LAWs we could send, including just sending money. We could fund Russian Language web content to undermine Putin's monopoly on information, cut generous deals with states that might be tempted to side with Russia to encourage them to do otherwise, and so on.

All it takes is a leadership that recognises we can't just stick to business as usual when a revanchist dictator is moving tanks and troops into other countries, based on beliefs that place many countries in his crosshairs.

All it takes is a leadership willing to see the big picture, so yeah, not going to happen

Russian companies listed on the London stock exchange send an amount of tax roughly equivalent to the country's military budget:

In total, 31 Russian companies are listed on the LSE, with a combined market value of £468bn, according to the data company S&P Global.
Britain lets Putin move his dark money with impunity. That has to stop
Oliver Bullough
Read more

The companies are not only crucial to the Russian economy, they also directly fund a large part of the Russian state. London-listed Russian oil, gas and mining companies paid their government £39bn in taxes in 2020, according to a Guardian analysis of payments to government disclosures. That revenue is hugely important to the Putin regime: Russia spent £41.7bn on its military in 2019, 11.4% of government spending, according to the World Bank’s latest figures.

Half a trillion doesn't sound that insignificant to me. The UK really punches above its weight financially.

And bear in mind that's just publicly listed companies. There's shitloads of secret hidden stuff too.

Funding c.nts like Putin is de rigeur for secretive financial regimes like the UK - the only difference right now is that the sh.tty consequences are a bit closer than usual. It would be nice if "global Britain" - as well as those dodgy c.nts the Swiss, inter alia - stopped helping maniacs in exchange for their thirty pieces of silver.

[Bird on a Fire]

Farewell Nordstream 2 https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/sta ... 36064?s=21

Good.

Quite why any Paris signatories were building new gas pipes is a mystery, especially given that almost all of them this side of the Atlantic are lining murderers' pockets.

[Bird on a Fire]

FWIW I think targeting governments, large corporations and oligarchs should be the starting point.

Trying to make ordinary citizens suffer till they overthrow their horrible government doesn't seem to have worked well in Cuba, Iran, Vuvuzela, DPRK, etc etc.

[Stranger Mouse]

Another thing to bear in mind is just how tiny and unimportant the UK is now, outside of the EU. If the US, EU and UK all imposed the same harsh sanctions at the same time, that might make a difference, but even if the UK did go full throttle, it would make such little difference to anything.

It would make a difference to the thieving shits who treat London like their playground.

Yeah, I thought that as soon as I clicked submit tbh

Johnson really is a sh.t.

Wasn't the big influx of oligarchs into London while he was mayor? He's certainly the kind of person to constantly suck up to them.

Sounds about right. He probably slept with at least several of them.

Maybe at this party https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ugia-party

[EACLucifer]

Farewell Nordstream 2 https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/sta ... 36064?s=21

Good.

Quite why any Paris signatories were building new gas pipes is a mystery, especially given that almost all of them this side of the Atlantic are lining murderers' pockets.

Racing to shut down existing nuclear because of a single incident in Japan involving a tsunami - not a noted natural hazard in Germany - doesn't help.

[IvanV]

One of the things that is making me so angry about all of this is that it did not have to be this way. Ukraine has forty million people. They can field a large army. What they needed all along was the weaponry to do so. It's too late to put it in place now. We shouldn't have waited to the last possible minute to ship Javelins and N-LAWs, the moment it became clear Putin was willing to invade Ukraine - which he did eight damn years ago - we should have been shipping everything we could to fortify the place, restarting the assembly lines to send them modern western tanks, sending them quantities of drones, and so on.

It's not really that easy.

Russia made a lot of fuss when Nato started locating more equipment in countries near the Russian border. Nato has several times backed down, because of concerns about what Russia might do in response to this "encirclement". Even though it wasn't encirclement, it was the natural desire of those countries to defend themselves against Russian aggression. But Russia portrays it as offensive capability and threatens to respond accordingly. You might say, well the armaments make it less likely that they can follow through and invade. But there are long borders and other places to annoy. And it ends up provoking just the kind of cold war iron curtain we have tried to retreat from.

Russia demands a "sphere of influence" over its neighbouring countries, "just like Nato has got". Except it hasn't - countries do in fact join Nato voluntarily. As some American pointed out in a recent letter to the Economist, it is not even in the interests of places like Belgium to promise to defend places like Estonia. His aim was to suggest that it was actually in Nato's interest to grant Russia a sphere of influence. But that way lies perdition.

It seems always possible for authoritarian states to present liberal states with conundrums they cannot easily address.

[EACLucifer]

FWIW I think targeting governments, large corporations and oligarchs should be the starting point.

Trying to make ordinary citizens suffer till they overthrow their horrible government doesn't seem to have worked well in Cuba, Iran, Vuvuzela, DPRK, etc etc.

Completely agreed in principle, the targeting should be at those with wealth and power, particularly things like natural resources which are inextricable from Putin's regime and its system of corrupt patronage.

That said, there's no sweet spot where enough is done to the powerful without doing anything to the less powerful, and given that we are in a situation where there are no good options, and a forced to choose between awful ones, I would rather we risk the Scylla of impoverishing ordinary Russians than the Charybdis of doing too little, and seeing some of those ordinary Russians inflict horrors on ordinary Ukrainians.

[Bird on a Fire]

Farewell Nordstream 2 https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/sta ... 36064?s=21

Good.

Quite why any Paris signatories were building new gas pipes is a mystery, especially given that almost all of them this side of the Atlantic are lining murderers' pockets.

Racing to shut down existing nuclear because of a single incident in Japan involving a tsunami - not a noted natural hazard in Germany - doesn't help.

Well, we wouldn't want to end up like that Chernobyl place in Russia.

[Bird on a Fire]

What, too soon?

[monkey]

Good.

Quite why any Paris signatories were building new gas pipes is a mystery, especially given that almost all of them this side of the Atlantic are lining murderers' pockets.

Racing to shut down existing nuclear because of a single incident in Japan involving a tsunami - not a noted natural hazard in Germany - doesn't help.

Well, we wouldn't want to end up like that Chernobyl place in Russia.

I can't tell if you saying Chernobyl is in Russia is a joke or a mistake.

[Bird on a Fire]

Racing to shut down existing nuclear because of a single incident in Japan involving a tsunami - not a noted natural hazard in Germany - doesn't help.

Well, we wouldn't want to end up like that Chernobyl place in Russia.

I can't tell if you saying Chernobyl is in Russia is a joke or a mistake.

What, too soon?