The Invasion of Ukraine

[EACLucifer]

f.ck the Italian government.

Italian prime minister Mario Draghi successfully secured a carve out for Italian luxury goods from the EU's package of economic sanctions against Nato, EU dip tells me. 'Apparently selling Gucci loafers to oligarchs is more of a priority than hitting back at Putin,' source adds.

ETA: The mistake in the quoted tweet is from the Telegraph's correspondent, not me, but as the rest of the information corresponds with what others sources have said was likely/happening, it's safe to say it's just a simple mistake when typing in a hurry.

Jesus f.cking wept. Even if you don't give a toss about Ukraine -- and we regularly turn blind eyes to greater atrocities -- has no-one realised that if Putin thinks there is any weakness in Nato's response, he will take it as a green light to invade countries which are Nato members, with WW3 following surely on?

I mean Russia's already hitting neutral shipping in the Black Sea, which might be a deliberate attempt to isolate Ukraine, or it might just be the Russian's were drunk enough to think they'd seen Japanese torpedo boats again.

[JQH]

When even the Morning Star posts an editorial like this, Putin has managed to upset the tankies.

TBH it really puzzles me why any on the left support the Moscow line - the kleptocratic rulers of a mafia state are about as far from socialism as it is possible to be.

[WFJ]

When even the Morning Star posts an editorial like this, Putin has managed to upset the tankies.

TBH it really puzzles me why any on the left support the Moscow line - the kleptocratic rulers of a mafia state are about as far from socialism as it is possible to be.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

[jimbob]

f.ck the Italian government.

Italian prime minister Mario Draghi successfully secured a carve out for Italian luxury goods from the EU's package of economic sanctions against Nato, EU dip tells me. 'Apparently selling Gucci loafers to oligarchs is more of a priority than hitting back at Putin,' source adds.

ETA: The mistake in the quoted tweet is from the Telegraph's correspondent, not me, but as the rest of the information corresponds with what others sources have said was likely/happening, it's safe to say it's just a simple mistake when typing in a hurry.

Jesus f.cking wept. Even if you don't give a toss about Ukraine -- and we regularly turn blind eyes to greater atrocities -- has no-one realised that if Putin thinks there is any weakness in Nato's response, he will take it as a green light to invade countries which are Nato members, with WW3 following surely on?

I mean Russia's already hitting neutral shipping in the Black Sea, which might be a deliberate attempt to isolate Ukraine, or it might just be the Russian's were drunk enough to think they'd seen Japanese torpedo boats again.

Rescue operations were carried out by the Ukrainian authorities. The crewmembers, all Russian, were rescued, but two of them are in serious condition, Moldova’s Naval Agency confirmed, adding that the source of the missile launch is unknown.

[discovolante]

The mods have made a request regarding sharing photos, videos etc relating to the Ukraine invasion. Sticky thread here.

If you want to discuss the request, please do so here, rather than in this thread.

Thanks very much

[monkey]

When even the Morning Star posts an editorial like this, Putin has managed to upset the tankies.

TBH it really puzzles me why any on the left support the Moscow line - the kleptocratic rulers of a mafia state are about as far from socialism as it is possible to be.

The crankiest people have fallen down the rabbit hole so far that they do not trust any western media, unless it is repeating what they already think. If UK/US/EU sources are saying one thing, and (e.g.) Russian the opposite, they will trust the Russians because of that. It's not about supporting socialism, it's about attacking capitalism/neoliberalism/the establishment.

It's also not always true that criticising the likes of NATO means support of Putin (or some other horrible c.nt), even if the analysis of that what got you there is very wrong.

[Pishwish]

Gary Kasparov tweets

Most EU leaders, even the ones in the East who grasp the danger Putin represents, are a generation removed from confrontation and conflict. They are vegetarians in a steakhouse, wondering why there's no salad on the menu.

I think those of us who grew up during the Cold War forget that younger people may lack this mindset. As with soldiering, theory is not much use without experience.

[EACLucifer]

Nato is deploying the Nato Response Force for the first time.

Stoltenberg is warning that Russia's objectives go beyond Ukraine. Naturally, the eastern members of the alliance are very worried about what is happening in Ukraine. Russia's also threatened Finland and Sweden for considering joining NATO, but as EU members, they are already covered by the mutual defence clause of the Lisbon Treaty.

The reference to Russia's objectives could also refer to Transnistria, a part of Moldova occupied by Russia for pretty much the entirety of the time since the fall of the iron curtain, yet another reason why the west was far too soft, not too harsh, on Russia in this period.

[TopBadger]

A lot has been made of Russia's superior numbers but in military tactics its assumed the attackers need 3x the numbers of defenders to win a battle, and maybe more in urban warfare. I don't think the Russians finding this as easy as Putin hoped they would...

[Millennie Al]

The permanent seats should all be abolished. What's the point of uniting nations if a handful of them, especially ones that in most cases have historically been very aggressive overseas, can veto democratic motions?

That merely reflects the fact that some countries are (or were when it was originally set up) sufficiently powerful that they could do what they liked anyway and allowing resolutions which were contrary to their determined policy would be ignored with impunity, thus undermining the value of all resolutions.

Meanwhile, Boris is determined to implement a package of sanctions so severe that he is worried that Russia might notice.

[Vertigowooyay]

Do we have a Fascist Apologist file for future reference? If so, can someone pop this in there?

CFE9E989-27D5-4581-81CF-FEB2E633FB6A.jpeg (18.51 KiB) Viewed 3317 times

[EACLucifer]

Do we have a Fascist Apologist file for future reference? If so, can someone pop this in there?

CFE9E989-27D5-4581-81CF-FEB2E633FB6A.jpeg

A proof of how strong idiotic hate for one's own country can be is how the RCP/Living Marxism crowd went from nominally Trotskyist anti-western idiot contrarians to openly rightwing anti-western idiot contrarions without changing much in the way of their views.

[Woodchopper]

A lot has been made of Russia's superior numbers but in military tactics its assumed the attackers need 3x the numbers of defenders to win a battle, and maybe more in urban warfare. I don't think the Russians finding this as easy as Putin hoped they would...

There are far fewer Russian troops than Ukrainian (if we just count those in Ukraine). But the Russians have a big advantage in air power, armour and artillery.

I’ve seen a few videos of Russian armoured vehicles stuck at the roadside apparently out of fuel. If it’s a widespread problem it suggests that Russian logistics aren’t organized enough to keep up. In addition, the Ukrainians may have let some armoured units advance through the countryside while the Ukrainians waited to attack the more vulnerable supply convoys.

[lpm]

There's a lot of talk about how the Russians have failed to take their Day 1 objectives yet. But obviously nobody's got any idea what their Day 1 objectives actually were.

And the Crimea/south/Sea of Azov land bridge campaign is rarely mentioned due to the focus on Kyiv. The Crimea force has sent recon probes across the bridges to the north bank of the Dnieper - unclear if they've dug in anywhere on the north side or if they're just sitting there because they can. And the force has headed east to Melitopol where there's been heavy fighting. Russian propaganda claims they've taken it, Ukrainian propaganda claims they haven't.

So maybe it's a case that Russia has achieved more than planned in the south but is held up around Kyiv and Kharkiv?

It seems a bit strange that there are still forces on the Russian/Belarus side of the border, all prepped and ready to go but not on the move?

[EACLucifer]

From people with rather more access to intel than we have. Mixed news.

[Woodchopper]

Another map showing incidents can be found here: https://maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor

[bjn]

Various other idle speculations I've seen around the place seem to indicate that the Russian logistics are just total pants. They can't get fuel and food to the soldiers. Various videos of russian AFVs parked on the side of roads out of fuel, with clueless Russian soldiers not knowing what is going on. This could be why the bulk of the troops are still stuck over the border. Stories of corruption leading to ghost troops, supplies and equipment are part of that.

Furthermore, they've been splintering their Battalion Tactical Groups during the advance, so as to stop crowding on the available roads to enable their mad rush to Kyiv and other cities. This means that the Ukrainians have been able to take on the smaller formations who may not have the troops/equipment to needed to deal with the opposition to their advance. It also means overstretched supply lines and no troops left to hold the ground, after the tanks have gone though the following soft skinned vehicles are vulnerable.

There are reports that they are taking 10,000 troops out Chechnya, which could be 'interesting' for Chechnya. Kazakhstan has refused to supply troops, and even worst, has had to rely on Russian troops to deal with some local unrest.

Basically the Russians are fluffing it badly. My hope is that they have fluffed it badly enough that it erodes their will to fight in front of stiff Ukrainian opposition. The momentum stops, it turns into a grind and Putin has humiliated Russian in front of the world and has overreached himself. Grieving Russian mothers are out for blood, frustrated oligarchs don't get to spend their stolen money and the knives come out. Someone less tainted gets to take over, Putin is blamed for everything and it's all swept under the carpet.

Here's hoping anyway.

[noggins]

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

[EACLucifer]

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

What's so telling is that Stoppers and Kippers and MAGAs view their own nations as the enemy here, not as something to reform or improve, but an enemy.

[Woodchopper]

Various other idle speculations I've seen around the place seem to indicate that the Russian logistics are just total pants. They can't get fuel and food to the soldiers. Various videos of russian AFVs parked on the side of roads out of fuel, with clueless Russian soldiers not knowing what is going on. This could be why the bulk of the troops are still stuck over the border. Stories of corruption leading to ghost troops, supplies and equipment are part of that.

Furthermore, they've been splintering their Battalion Tactical Groups during the advance, so as to stop crowding on the available roads to enable their mad rush to Kyiv and other cities. This means that the Ukrainians have been able to take on the smaller formations who may not have the troops/equipment to needed to deal with the opposition to their advance. It also means overstretched supply lines and no troops left to hold the ground, after the tanks have gone though the following soft skinned vehicles are vulnerable.

There are reports that they are taking 10,000 troops out Chechnya, which could be 'interesting' for Chechnya. Kazakhstan has refused to supply troops, and even worst, has had to rely on Russian troops to deal with some local unrest.

Basically the Russians are fluffing it badly. My hope is that they have fluffed it badly enough that it erodes their will to fight in front of stiff Ukrainian opposition. The momentum stops, it turns into a grind and Putin has humiliated Russian in front of the world and has overreached himself. Grieving Russian mothers are out for blood, frustrated oligarchs don't get to spend their stolen money and the knives come out. Someone less tainted gets to take over, Putin is blamed for everything and it's all swept under the carpet.

Here's hoping anyway.

Yes, for those who haven’t seen it here’s a thread which summarizes a lot of those points: https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/14974 ... 21281?s=21

I’m a bit less optimistic. Sooner or later the Russian leadership may realize that they need a change of strategy. However they may decide to try to do what they did in Chechnya and slowly obliterate everything in front of them with artillery.

[EACLucifer]

I’m a bit less optimistic. Sooner or later the Russian leadership may realize that they need a change of strategy. However they may decide to try to do what they did in Chechnya and slowly obliterate everything in front of them with artillery.

Agreed. Russia's struggling because they've made some truly imbecilic mistakes, but we can't rely on them continuing to make them.

On the other hand, if one of the problems is, as a lot of people suspect, that their Battalion Task Groups are a fundamentally bad way to organise soldiers, they won't be able to fix it easily.

[Woodchopper]

Stolen from @MENA_conflict on that Twitter:

AAAE58B8-67DC-4B5F-9EE4-5FFA5993476C.jpeg (128.05 KiB) Viewed 3003 times

[EACLucifer]

Kyiv Independent is reporting Russians have hit the children's cancer hospital in Kyiv, and that they are using multiple rocket launchers against the city. Looks like they might be hitting the commit loads and loads of atrocities phase of the invasion.

[bjn]

Various other idle speculations I've seen around the place seem to indicate that the Russian logistics are just total pants. They can't get fuel and food to the soldiers. Various videos of russian AFVs parked on the side of roads out of fuel, with clueless Russian soldiers not knowing what is going on. This could be why the bulk of the troops are still stuck over the border. Stories of corruption leading to ghost troops, supplies and equipment are part of that.

Furthermore, they've been splintering their Battalion Tactical Groups during the advance, so as to stop crowding on the available roads to enable their mad rush to Kyiv and other cities. This means that the Ukrainians have been able to take on the smaller formations who may not have the troops/equipment to needed to deal with the opposition to their advance. It also means overstretched supply lines and no troops left to hold the ground, after the tanks have gone though the following soft skinned vehicles are vulnerable.

There are reports that they are taking 10,000 troops out Chechnya, which could be 'interesting' for Chechnya. Kazakhstan has refused to supply troops, and even worst, has had to rely on Russian troops to deal with some local unrest.

Basically the Russians are fluffing it badly. My hope is that they have fluffed it badly enough that it erodes their will to fight in front of stiff Ukrainian opposition. The momentum stops, it turns into a grind and Putin has humiliated Russian in front of the world and has overreached himself. Grieving Russian mothers are out for blood, frustrated oligarchs don't get to spend their stolen money and the knives come out. Someone less tainted gets to take over, Putin is blamed for everything and it's all swept under the carpet.

Here's hoping anyway.

Yes, for those who haven’t seen it here’s a thread which summarizes a lot of those points: https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/14974 ... 21281?s=21

I’m a bit less optimistic. Sooner or later the Russian leadership may realize that they need a change of strategy. However they may decide to try to do what they did in Chechnya and slowly obliterate everything in front of them with artillery.

As I said, I was hoping for that outcome, my gloomy outlook is the Chechnya option.

[Brightonian]

HMG will graciously allow Ukrainians bombed out their homes to pick strawberries:
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status ... 3104118789