The Invasion of Ukraine

[headshot]

This exchange is utterly remarkable.

Brave Ukrainian offers to tow Russians home in priceless exchange (source: The Independent)

The Russian soldiers clearly have no idea what's going on or where they're supposed to be going, and their supply chain has completely broken down.

How does this happen in a war footing? It's the equivalent of "you can't park there"...

[EACLucifer]

This exchange is utterly remarkable.

Brave Ukrainian offers to tow Russians home in priceless exchange (source: The Independent)

The Russian soldiers clearly have no idea what's going on or where they're supposed to be going, and their supply chain has completely broken down.

How does this happen in a war footing? It's the equivalent of "you can't park there"...

Well there were reports of them selling their fuel while they were in Belarus prior to the invasion, their units have become fragmented with poor oversight from commanders as to what they are doing, and they were reportedly short of trucks before they even invaded, and shorter now, as trucks burn well.

It looks like serious sanctions are finally coming, and not a moment to soon. There's also forces massing on the Belarus/Poland border, not sure of numbers yet, but after the last week, we cannot discount anything from Putin.

[lpm]

Last night a missile hit a Kyiv apartment block. Presumably accidentally, some pilot aiming for something else. Two dead, many injured. Something common enough in our own drone strikes.

But the entire world gets shown the footage and is outraged.

Russia seems to have no concept of how badly they have lost the propaganda war. It's game over, internationally.

They might rain down destruction tonight which will only worsen Putin's pariah status. There will never be forgiveness, no matter how much his oil and gas is needed. The long term situation for Russia is hopeless.

[Woodchopper]

Interesting. Article states that while the invasion is talked about on Russian media, government restrictions mean that there’s almost no coverage of what’s happening. Russian media isn’t even making an attempt to produce positive propaganda films etc.

https://www.ft.com/content/73f87533-749 ... ce0a9265bd

Suggests firstly that Putin is nervous of popular opposition. Secondly, perhaps another piece of the jigsaw which suggests that the Russian leadership believed that it would all be over after a few days, and didn’t plan for a protracted war.

[Brightonian]

Swan Lake performances cancelled - take that, Putin!

But that just feels silly somehow, even though they were to be done by the Moscow State Ballet. Perhaps inspired by the moving of the Champions League final from St Petersburg, past sporting boycotts of apartheid South Africa etc.

[El Pollo Diablo]

There needs to be a total cultural boycott. Kick them out of FIFA & UEFA, the IOC, etc.

Even then though, notice how Truss, f.ckwit extraordinaire, says that sanctions against billionaires will be coming over a period of "months". Get some extra donations in quick, like.

[Woodchopper]

There needs to be a total cultural boycott. Kick them out of FIFA & UEFA, the IOC, etc.

Yes. Given the level of state control over Russian media, kicking Russia out of all major sport and cultural events might make some Russians start to question why.

[jimbob]

There needs to be a total cultural boycott. Kick them out of FIFA & UEFA, the IOC, etc.

Even then though, notice how Truss, f.ckwit extraordinaire, says that sanctions against billionaires will be coming over a period of "months". Get some extra donations in quick, like.

Exactly - they have powerful symbolism
ETA:
And like woodchopper says, it might get through the Russian media bubble - I was struggling to think how to say that.

Suddenly Russsia is no longer at any sporting events is hard to explain away, except a conspiracy against Russia.

[lpm]

There's one thing a central bank should never do: appeal for calm.

Telling people their money is safe in a bank is a classic "a lot of questions already answered by my shirt".

Particularly when a country's currency has been trashed twice already in the past 25 years.

I don't really know how central banks work in the modern era or what the impact will be, but I know enough to suspect none of the Twitter Explanations have got it right either. Money is ultimately a collective act of faith. Not sure how to reach Russian people and weaken that collective faith in the ruble but it would be a major victory if we could.

[Bird on a Fire]

I think I'm realising that I was thinking about this all wrong.

I thought that Putin was a kind of postmodernist Machiavelli, not necessarily a genius but devious and imaginative, unpleasant but ultimately rational. I was expecting any invasion of Ukraine to be competent and with a material purpose.

Instead it seems that he's just gone mad, and is a bit sh.t.

Or is the Western propaganda just that good? It's so hard to know what to think these days.

[bjn]

We'll I've written a strongly worded letter to my MP encouraging her to encourage the government to do more and especially not be arse hats when it comes to accepting refugees.

Does anyone know of any practical routes to assistance? ie: where can I send some money to help the Ukrainians.

[Woodchopper]

I think I'm realising that I was thinking about this all wrong.

I thought that Putin was a kind of postmodernist Machiavelli, not necessarily a genius but devious and imaginative, unpleasant but ultimately rational. I was expecting any invasion of Ukraine to be competent and with a material purpose.

Instead it seems that he's just gone mad, and is a bit sh.t.

Or is the Western propaganda just that good? It's so hard to know what to think these days.

As with other leaders, future historians may refer to several phases in Putin’s history. Reports from western leaders who’ve talked to him suggest that he has changed quite a lot.

[bjn]

In answer to my own question, Save The Children have a GoFundMe set up.

[Bird on a Fire]

Red Cross https://www.icrc.org/en/donate/ukraine

UNHCR https://donate.unhcr.org/int/en/ukraine-emergency

There may well be local organisations for refugees too.

[Bird on a Fire]

I think I'm realising that I was thinking about this all wrong.

I thought that Putin was a kind of postmodernist Machiavelli, not necessarily a genius but devious and imaginative, unpleasant but ultimately rational. I was expecting any invasion of Ukraine to be competent and with a material purpose.

Instead it seems that he's just gone mad, and is a bit sh.t.

Or is the Western propaganda just that good? It's so hard to know what to think these days.

As with other leaders, future historians may refer to several phases in Putin’s history. Reports from western leaders who’ve talked to him suggest that he has changed quite a lot.

Marco Rubio was hinting on twitter yesterday that Putin has a degenerative mental condition. He's on some security panel apparently, but he's also a nob so I dunno.

[EACLucifer]

For f.ck's sake, western media, do not in any circumstances talk about refusing to meet a) in Belarus, a co-belligerent and b) with the precondition of Ukraine laying down her arms as Zelensky rejecting the offer of peace talks. That's not peace talks, its a demand to surrender.

[Woodchopper]

We'll I've written a strongly worded letter to my MP encouraging her to encourage the government to do more and especially not be arse hats when it comes to accepting refugees.

Does anyone know of any practical routes to assistance? ie: where can I send some money to help the Ukrainians.

Lots of suggestions here: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... ame=iossmf

[Gfamily]

We'll I've written a strongly worded letter to my MP encouraging her to encourage the government to do more and especially not be arse hats when it comes to accepting refugees.

Does anyone know of any practical routes to assistance? ie: where can I send some money to help the Ukrainians.

There are a number of Polish societies around UK that are organising collections of money for personal defence kit, and also clothes, blankets etc for people fleeing the country.
No direct links, but one of the mums at our kids old primary school is a member of the Manchester Polish community.

[jimbob]

There's one thing a central bank should never do: appeal for calm.

Telling people their money is safe in a bank is a classic "a lot of questions already answered by my shirt".

Particularly when a country's currency has been trashed twice already in the past 25 years.

I don't really know how central banks work in the modern era or what the impact will be, but I know enough to suspect none of the Twitter Explanations have got it right either. Money is ultimately a collective act of faith. Not sure how to reach Russian people and weaken that collective faith in the ruble but it would be a major victory if we could.

Yes, when I saw that, I thought it was particularly inept.

[Stranger Mouse]

I think I'm realising that I was thinking about this all wrong.

I thought that Putin was a kind of postmodernist Machiavelli, not necessarily a genius but devious and imaginative, unpleasant but ultimately rational. I was expecting any invasion of Ukraine to be competent and with a material purpose.

Instead it seems that he's just gone mad, and is a bit sh.t.

Or is the Western propaganda just that good? It's so hard to know what to think these days.

Just finished this by Misha Glenny. Well worth getting an Audible free trial for. https://www.amazon.co.uk/Putin-Prisoner ... 170&sr=8-1

And I’ve just reread the Russia chapter of Prisoners Of Geography astonishing how salient it is now

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Prisoners-Geog ... 457&sr=1-1

[bjn]

Interesting write up on SWIFT and other financial sanctions options, sent to me by someone who does grown up finance.

[EACLucifer]

Russians using cluster munitions in civilian areas - Bellingcat. Thread details evidence for cluster munitions hitting a kindergarten. Evidence of both submunition impacts and carrier rocket.

[JQH]

I think I'm realising that I was thinking about this all wrong.

I thought that Putin was a kind of postmodernist Machiavelli, not necessarily a genius but devious and imaginative, unpleasant but ultimately rational. I was expecting any invasion of Ukraine to be competent and with a material purpose.

Instead it seems that he's just gone mad, and is a bit sh.t.

Or is the Western propaganda just that good? It's so hard to know what to think these days.

As with other leaders, future historians may refer to several phases in Putin’s history. Reports from western leaders who’ve talked to him suggest that he has changed quite a lot.

Marco Rubio was hinting on twitter yesterday that Putin has a degenerative mental condition. He's on some security panel apparently, but he's also a nob so I dunno.

Just who the world needs to be in charge of the biggest/second biggest nuclear arsenal...

[EACLucifer]

Marco Rubio was hinting on twitter yesterday that Putin has a degenerative mental condition. He's on some security panel apparently, but he's also a nob so I dunno.

Just who the world needs to be in charge of the biggest/second biggest nuclear arsenal...

He's been hinting some more, too, hinting that Putin hasn't necessarily got long left, and do commanders want to follow orders from a man who won't be around long but which will make those who follow them a priority for war crimes trials, more or less.

Of course, he is an utter git, so f.ck knows.

[EACLucifer]

Absolutely staggering footage doing the rounds right now from the northwestern outskirts of Kiev, where it appears a Russian column of armoured vehicles got utterly destroyed. V marks not Z marks, though it was noted in the buildup that Z marks weren't the only marks the Russians were painting on their vehicles.