The Invasion of Ukraine

[lpm]

It's not clear what the symbols mean but Z is mostly the force coming out for Russia to attack Kharkiv, V is coming out of Belarus for Kyiv. But there's also O which seems to have been intended to headed out of Belarus deeper into the country once V had captured Kyiv.

However the Crimea force have also been using Z and V.

[EACLucifer]

It's not clear what the symbols mean but Z is mostly the force coming out for Russia to attack Kharkiv, V is coming out of Belarus for Kyiv. But there's also O which seems to have been intended to headed out of Belarus deeper into the country once V had captured Kyiv.

However the Crimea force have also been using Z and V.

Bellingcat's Christo Grozev has them as Chechens working for Kadyrov, and credits the destruction to a Bayraktar drone.

Russia's claimed more drones downed than Ukraine even possessed before the war, but we're still seeing evidence of their handiwork. Between that and the various losses of SU-25s it's safe to say manned ground attack is looking quite obsolete.

[Woodchopper]

It’s very likely that the Ukrainians have an indirect advantage in intelligence. It looks like the Russians don’t have much of an idea of the location of Ukrainian units. It seems very likely that the US is giving the Ukrainians very good intelligence on Russian movements. That would help Ukrainian ambushes, especially on supply columns.

[Sciolus]

I think I'm realising that I was thinking about this all wrong.

I thought that Putin was a kind of postmodernist Machiavelli, not necessarily a genius but devious and imaginative, unpleasant but ultimately rational. I was expecting any invasion of Ukraine to be competent and with a material purpose.

Instead it seems that he's just gone mad, and is a bit sh.t.

Or is the Western propaganda just that good? It's so hard to know what to think these days.

It's entirely possible that 20 years of absolute power have left him pretty barking (look at what happens to British PMs after just 10 years). It's also possible that he's been fed so much inaccurate information, out of fear of telling him the truth, that what seems rational to him is actually irrational. It's also also possible that he's playing up the mad, unpredictable psycho act in order to scare his enemies (there's an exemplar for that but I forget who). These are not exclusive possibilities.

[lpm]

There's the old problem of bullying as a management technique. "Comrade, I want your next report to show monthly steel production at the Vladimir Lenin Iron Foundry has doubled." "General, bring me a plan that shows the capture of Kiev within 2 days."

You get the same problems around the world - fundamentally leadership is incompatible with bullying, but humans are a hierarchical species prone to put bullies in leadership.

[EACLucifer]

There's the old problem of bullying as a management technique. "Comrade, I want your next report to show monthly steel production at the Vladimir Lenin Iron Foundry has doubled." "General, bring me a plan that shows the capture of Kiev within 2 days."

You get the same problems around the world - fundamentally leadership is incompatible with bullying, but humans are a hierarchical species prone to put bullies in leadership.

VVS HQ: I want a report on my desk within a day saying Ukraine's air-defences are all destroyed.

[Sciolus]

Yeah. Probably the only person able to tell Putin what he doesn't want to hear, and actually be listened to, is Xi Jinping. Clearly China has ambitions for similar projects of its own, so will be watching what happens over Ukraine carefully. My hope is that they're pissed off that Putin is queering their pitch, and will tell him not to escalate further. Surely if Putin does go nuclear, China will have to come off the fence and join a global blockade of Russia or face sanctions itself, so they will be warning him against it. I hope?

[Martin Y]

For f.ck's sake, western media, do not in any circumstances talk about refusing to meet a) in Belarus, a co-belligerent and b) with the precondition of Ukraine laying down her arms as Zelensky rejecting the offer of peace talks. That's not peace talks, its a demand to surrender.

Particularly when the Russians have previous form for arresting and executing those whom they invited to negotiate in exactly these kinds of circumstances. Hungary in 1956 for example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A1l_Mal%C3%A9ter

[jimbob]

It's not clear what the symbols mean but Z is mostly the force coming out for Russia to attack Kharkiv, V is coming out of Belarus for Kyiv. But there's also O which seems to have been intended to headed out of Belarus deeper into the country once V had captured Kyiv.

However the Crimea force have also been using Z and V.

Bellingcat's Christo Grozev has them as Chechens working for Kadyrov, and credits the destruction to a Bayraktar drone.

Russia's claimed more drones downed than Ukraine even possessed before the war, but we're still seeing evidence of their handiwork. Between that and the various losses of SU-25s it's safe to say manned ground attack is looking quite obsolete.

When I was in the air cadets about 1989-90?, one requirement was to do a project "of potential interest to the RAF"

I chose to do one on drones "or RPVs" and said their relative cheapness and expendability meant that they were going to be increasingly important on the battlefield, both as decoys to waste air defence weapons (the Israelis had already done that) and later with weapons.

Looking back on it, for a teenager with no special knowledge, I got it pretty accurate.

[jimbob]

I think I'm realising that I was thinking about this all wrong.

I thought that Putin was a kind of postmodernist Machiavelli, not necessarily a genius but devious and imaginative, unpleasant but ultimately rational. I was expecting any invasion of Ukraine to be competent and with a material purpose.

Instead it seems that he's just gone mad, and is a bit sh.t.

Or is the Western propaganda just that good? It's so hard to know what to think these days.

As with other leaders, future historians may refer to several phases in Putin’s history. Reports from western leaders who’ve talked to him suggest that he has changed quite a lot.

Marco Rubio was hinting on twitter yesterday that Putin has a degenerative mental condition. He's on some security panel apparently, but he's also a nob so I dunno.

There were claims of Parkinsons, I think it was last year.

And I don't think I've seen footage of him walking (as opposed to sitting at the end of a very long table) recently.

[JQH]

Parkinsons does not affect your ability to think and reason so even if he does have it, it's of no relevance.

In other news depressingly simplistic slogans calling for the withdrawal of NATO troops from eastern Europe have started appearing in my FB feed. Do these people actually know what NATO is?

Plus anyone who finds themselves agreeing with Donald Trump and Nigel Farage needs to take a long hard look at themselves.

[bjn]

Looks like Switzerland is going to freeze Russian assets.

[shpalman]

Looks like Switzerland is going to freeze Russian assets.

Including VP-BOE, an Aeroflot A321 which didn't manage to get out of Geneva before the whole EU closed its skies to Russian-registered aircraft?

[Trinucleus]

FIFA comes down hard - the Russian football team mustn't use their flag when playing other nations. Not that anyone will play them

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60548685-

I can only assume Putin still owes them some bribes for the world cup in Russia

[jimbob]

Parkinsons does not affect your ability to think and reason so even if he does have it, it's of no relevance.

True. But it might be interesting from the health perspective, because I guess it's really not healthy for a strongman to show weakness.

And I suspect the main explanation is that his lieutenants don't like to tell Putin when he has bad ideas, so just getting out of touch.

[bob sterman]

Parkinsons does not affect your ability to think and reason so even if he does have it, it's of no relevance.

Errrr...Parkinson's most certainly can affect cognition...

https://www.parkinson.org/Understanding ... ve-Changes

Moreover - worryingly, a common treatment for Parkinson's (L-Dopa) can cause impulse control problems as a side-effect...

https://www.parkinson.org/Living-with-P ... mpulsivity

Finally, Parkinson's can be accompanied by dementia - in particular Lewy Body dementia (which comes with delusions of persecution, hallucinations and the belief that the people around you have been replaced by imposters)...

https://www.parkinsons.org.uk/informati ... t/dementia

So Parkinson's, if he has it and is being treated for it, could be of huge relevance.

[EACLucifer]

Multiple Russian media sources post, then promptly delete, article praising conquest of Ukraine.



The evidence that this is not going as well as the invaders thought it would go is stacking up.

[EACLucifer]

It's not clear what the symbols mean but Z is mostly the force coming out for Russia to attack Kharkiv, V is coming out of Belarus for Kyiv. But there's also O which seems to have been intended to headed out of Belarus deeper into the country once V had captured Kyiv.

However the Crimea force have also been using Z and V.

Bellingcat's Christo Grozev has them as Chechens working for Kadyrov, and credits the destruction to a Bayraktar drone.

Russia's claimed more drones downed than Ukraine even possessed before the war, but we're still seeing evidence of their handiwork. Between that and the various losses of SU-25s it's safe to say manned ground attack is looking quite obsolete.

When I was in the air cadets about 1989-90?, one requirement was to do a project "of potential interest to the RAF"

I chose to do one on drones "or RPVs" and said their relative cheapness and expendability meant that they were going to be increasingly important on the battlefield, both as decoys to waste air defence weapons (the Israelis had already done that) and later with weapons.

Looking back on it, for a teenager with no special knowledge, I got it pretty accurate.

With hindsight, it seems obvious. Back then, I guess less so.

Meanwhile, having seen footage of an NLAW getting a flank-hit on a T90, I can safely say I am now firmly on the no autoloader side of the autoloader debate in tanks.


Edit: it was probably an RPG of some sort, not an NLAW. Even more reasons to worry re: autoloader-style ammunition storage.

[Grumble]

We'll I've written a strongly worded letter to my MP encouraging her to encourage the government to do more and especially not be arse hats when it comes to accepting refugees.

Does anyone know of any practical routes to assistance? ie: where can I send some money to help the Ukrainians.

There are a number of Polish societies around UK that are organising collections of money for personal defence kit, and also clothes, blankets etc for people fleeing the country.
No direct links, but one of the mums at our kids old primary school is a member of the Manchester Polish community.

There’s a Ukrainian Club in Stockport. I might see if they’re organising anything.

[Stephanie]

Parkinsons does not affect your ability to think and reason so even if he does have it, it's of no relevance.

Errrr...Parkinson's most certainly can affect cognition...

https://www.parkinson.org/Understanding ... ve-Changes

Moreover - worryingly, a common treatment for Parkinson's (L-Dopa) can cause impulse control problems as a side-effect...

https://www.parkinson.org/Living-with-P ... mpulsivity

Finally, Parkinson's can be accompanied by dementia - in particular Lewy Body dementia (which comes with delusions of persecution, hallucinations and the belief that the people around you have been replaced by imposters)...

https://www.parkinsons.org.uk/informati ... t/dementia

So Parkinson's, if he has it and is being treated for it, could be of huge relevance.

Erm... I believe jqh knows about Parkinson's

[bjn]

Whatever you think about plodder, I'm not quite sure this is quite the right thread for musings about the detailed pros and cons of various weapons systems. I've been fighting my own urge to do so, saving that for a different forum.

[EACLucifer]

Fascinating -and long - thread by a historian talking about ways this isn't necessarily as one sided as people might think.

It talks about the technicalities of blitzkrieg, and how Putin's efforts differ from it*, corruption and court politics within Russia, why they found it easy in 2014, what's changed, and quite a bit about morale and myth.



*They also differ from Deep Operations, too.

[EACLucifer]

People are fretting about nukes, based on a video of a very large explosion. A reminder; large explosions of any sort look sort of mushroom-cloudy. Nuclear explosions come with a blinding white flash. If you do see footage of what looks to actually be a nuclear explosion and it isn't the single biggest news story in your lifetime, it's probably a troll using archive footage. There's not that many videos of nuclear explosions out there, so fact checking is easy.

[Iron Magpie]

There have been 2056 nuclear bombs detonated (in tests not sure if it includes the two in anger). I imagine that each one was probably filmed*. I think that qualifies as "many".

*probably from more than one angle/camera....

[bjn]

Fascinating -and long - thread by a historian talking about ways this isn't necessarily as one sided as people might think.

It talks about the technicalities of blitzkrieg, and how Putin's efforts differ from it*, corruption and court politics within Russia, why they found it easy in 2014, what's changed, and quite a bit about morale and myth.



*They also differ from Deep Operations, too.

Just read that thread before I came here. Interesting point he makes about the Ukranians rotating their conscript army through the separatist regions since the humiliation of 2014. That means that their civilian population will have several hundred thousand active combat veterans who can be called up as reservists, in addition to their standing army. No wonder they have been able to put up a fierce resistance unlike 2014.