Causes of invasion of Ukraine

[Grumble]

Common talking point among imbeciles is that the invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t have happened if Trump was in power. Surely Trump’s withdrawal from Syria in the face of Russian involvement is a key factor in Putin feeling bold enough to attack Ukraine? In which case Trump is a reason this has happened.

[bjn]

Common talking point among imbeciles is that the invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t have happened if Trump was in power. Surely Trump’s withdrawal from Syria in the face of Russian involvement is a key factor in Putin feeling bold enough to attack Ukraine? In which case Trump is a reason this has happened.

Trump would have withdrawn from NATO and now sending be Putin Javelins if he was in power.

[Millennie Al]

I'm not sure that Syria was as important as being the key factor. It was part of a pattern of behaviour which includes the disastrous abandonment of Afghanistan. If Syria had been an isolated incident, it could have been seen as the Americans realising that Russia was willing to do the work of getting rid of ISIS and just letting them get on with it. But America has show little willingness to fight except when it is a one-sided fight and they can stand back and throw technology at it. American seems very afraid of taking casuaties, which does not project an image of strength. It's adequate against many countries, but it's not enough to be taken seriously by places like Russia or China.

[IvanV]

I'm not sure I would classify this as a "cause" of the invasion. Clearly it is something that Putin would evaluate among success factors in making a decision to invade. But it is not the underlying cause.

[Stranger Mouse]

Common talking point among imbeciles is that the invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t have happened if Trump was in power. Surely Trump’s withdrawal from Syria in the face of Russian involvement is a key factor in Putin feeling bold enough to attack Ukraine? In which case Trump is a reason this has happened.

Trump would have withdrawn from NATO and now sending be Putin Javelins if he was in power.

When they make the movie of Zelensky’s life I hope they don’t skip the first Trump impeachment.

Or the dancing https://twitter.com/nazirafzal/status/1 ... 64192?s=21

[EACLucifer]

It's probably best to divide this into two categories; reasons Putin wanted to invade, and reasons he thought he could get away with it.

For the former, the fact that he apparently believes in the restoration of Imperial Russia would pretty much cover it.

Getting away with crossing so-called "Red Lines" in Syria, seeing the world stand by as Syrians were gassed by his proxies and there was no meaningful action after more than one poisoning by his thugs in the UK would go in the second. As would things like the sheer number of compromised in the west, including the US president 2017-2021 and the British leader of the opposition 2015-2020

[lpm]

Yes, to be fair, Putin's a bit like an unfaithful husband. Didn't get any grief for his affairs with Aisha and Tamar. Or for his dirty weekend seeing the spire in Salisbury with his secretary. But the moment he shags blonde and blue eyed Kristina his wife goes ape sh.t. No wonder he's baffled.

[monkey]

I would have thought that of all the things Putin has done that might make him think it's acceptable to invade countries, the fact that he had already done it without much consequence would be top of everyone's list.

[JQH]

It's probably best to divide this into two categories; reasons Putin wanted to invade, and reasons he thought he could get away with it.

For the former, the fact that he apparently believes in the restoration of Imperial Russia would pretty much cover it.

Getting away with crossing so-called "Red Lines" in Syria, seeing the world stand by as Syrians were gassed by his proxies and there was no meaningful action after more than one poisoning by his thugs in the UK would go in the second. As would things like the sheer number of compromised in the west, including the US president 2017-2021 and the British leader of the opposition 2015-2020

And indeed the British PM 2019 onwards

[KAJ]

In The Invasion of Ukraine thread

<snip>
And I’ve just reread the Russia chapter of Prisoners Of Geography astonishing how salient it is now

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Prisoners-Geog ... 457&sr=1-1

I've just read that chapter myself and am referencing it here because it seems very relevant to Causes of invasion.

[EACLucifer]

It's probably best to divide this into two categories; reasons Putin wanted to invade, and reasons he thought he could get away with it.

For the former, the fact that he apparently believes in the restoration of Imperial Russia would pretty much cover it.

Getting away with crossing so-called "Red Lines" in Syria, seeing the world stand by as Syrians were gassed by his proxies and there was no meaningful action after more than one poisoning by his thugs in the UK would go in the second. As would things like the sheer number of compromised in the west, including the US president 2017-2021 and the British leader of the opposition 2015-2020

And indeed the British PM 2019 onwards

Indeed. And getting away with interference in American elections and Brexit, and presumably many other elections.

And most saliently, as monkey mentioned, the fact that he's done this f.cking sh.t before and got away with it.

[Iron Magpie]

Considering this thread is titled, Causes of invasion of Ukraine, I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned the mistreatment of the ethnic Russians in the east of the country. Now I get it has echoes of Hitler and the Sudetenland but it also has some merit if we think that going against Saddam Hussain for his treatment of the Kurds was ok. Nor has the overthrow of the previously elected President been mentioned.

Personally I think there are no good guys in this war. The Ukrainians do seem to have a high number of actual neo nazis and they don't even try to hide it. Some of their armed forces literally have SS insignia on their shoulders. The BBC had a piece where some military dude was showing some granny how to shoot and it's there in full view yet it didn't get a mention.
Along side that I've been reading reports today where black Ukrainians have been ordered off of busses transporting people out of the area and left behind and made to walk.
As I said, no good guys.

Cue the Putin apologist screams.....

[Pishwish]

Personally I think there were no good guys in this war. The Ukrainians do seem to have a high number of actual neo nazis and they don't even try to hide it. Some of their armed forces literally have SS insignia on their shoulders. The BBC had a piece where some military dude was showing some granny how to shoot and it's there in full view yet it didn't get a mention.
Along side that I've been reading reports today where black Ukrainians have been ordered off of busses transporting people out of the area and left behind and made to walk.
As I said, no good guys.

Cue the Putin apologist screams.....

Personally I think there are no good guys in WW2. The French did seem to have a high number of people with fascist tendencies, people who went on to run the Vichy regime. And don't get me started on antisemitism, the Poles were no angels in that regard. Along side that I've been reading reports where black American soldiers have been sent to the back of busses. Now I know the Holocaust was bad and all, but whatabout FDR putting Japanese Americans in internment camps? And let's not forget that Hitler didn't have African colonies to oppress unlike the British and French.
As I said, no good guys.

Cue the Hitler apologist screams.....

(I think it's fine to Godwin a thread for dishonest contrarians trying the old false-equivalence trick so loved by the far right and far left).

[Chris Preston]

Considering this thread is titled, Causes of invasion of Ukraine, I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned the mistreatment of the ethnic Russians in the east of the country. Now I get it has echoes of Hitler and the Sudetenland but it also has some merit if we think that going against Saddam Hussain for his treatment of the Kurds was ok. Nor has the overthrow of the previously elected President been mentioned.

Personally I think there are no good guys in this war. The Ukrainians do seem to have a high number of actual neo nazis and they don't even try to hide it. Some of their armed forces literally have SS insignia on their shoulders. The BBC had a piece where some military dude was showing some granny how to shoot and it's there in full view yet it didn't get a mention.
Along side that I've been reading reports today where black Ukrainians have been ordered off of busses transporting people out of the area and left behind and made to walk.
As I said, no good guys.

Cue the Putin apologist screams.....

Significant parts of Putin's regime are indistinguishable from fascism as well, but for obvious reasons the Russians don't indulge in Nazi symbolism.

There is a tendency in Western cultures to support the underdog* and certainly there are elements of that in the commentary around the Ukraine. However, in the broader sense, the Western alliance and associated countries believes it cannot allow Russia to annex Ukraine. That is ultimately what is driving support for the Ukraine in the war, not because they are a paragon of democracy.

As to the cause of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this should be seen as the same playbook as the Russian Georgian War of 2008 and the Crimean Invasion. This is about keeping these countries out of the orbit of NATO and the EU in order to maintain strategic depth for Russia. The immediate current objective appears to be regime change in Ukraine to create a client state supportive of Russia. While Putin has recognised Donetsk and Luhansk as independent, that is not where his forces have gone. He doesn't seem interested in annexing them in the same way he annexed Crimea.

I think it is wrong to view Putin's foreign policy as strategy. It really has two objectives: to help keep Putin in power and to rebuild strategic depth. His efforts in the latter are varyingly successful and at times counter productive. Much of the policy is opportunistic - like the 2016 US election.

*Donald Trump's complete disdain for "losers" went down poorly in most Western nations, but resonated strongly elsewhere.

[Chris Preston]

On Foreign Policy in Russia, this article makes some interesting (and I think valid because I agree with them ) points.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/3 ... -pub-84845

[noggins]

Common talking point among imbeciles is that the invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t have happened if Trump was in power. Surely Trump’s withdrawal from Syria in the face of Russian involvement is a key factor in Putin feeling bold enough to attack Ukraine? In which case Trump is a reason this has happened.

But its true. With agent Trump in power there would be no need to invade. NATO would be falling apart.

[bjn]

On Foreign Policy in Russia, this article makes some interesting (and I think valid because I agree with them ) points.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/3 ... -pub-84845

You have to think if NATO had backed off a bit, all of this could have been avoided.

You have to think that if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine, Georgia, Chechnya and Moldova, none of this would have happened. There may be reasons that a relatively free and democratic Ukraine wanted to join NATO.

Your victim blaming is as bad as "she was wearing a short skirt".

[Allo V Psycho]

Considering this thread is titled, Causes of invasion of Ukraine, I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned the mistreatment of the ethnic Russians in the east of the country. Now I get it has echoes of Hitler and the Sudetenland but it also has some merit if we think that going against Saddam Hussain for his treatment of the Kurds was ok. Nor has the overthrow of the previously elected President been mentioned.

Personally I think there are no good guys in this war. The Ukrainians do seem to have a high number of actual neo nazis and they don't even try to hide it. Some of their armed forces literally have SS insignia on their shoulders. The BBC had a piece where some military dude was showing some granny how to shoot and it's there in full view yet it didn't get a mention.
Along side that I've been reading reports today where black Ukrainians have been ordered off of busses transporting people out of the area and left behind and made to walk.
As I said, no good guys.

Cue the Putin apologist screams.....

I think there is an element of proportionality involved. That Black people are mistreated by some white people in the UK is not a justification for an missile and bomb strikes, and armed invasion of the UK by France, aimed at overthrowing the government of the UK, and making it subservient to France, even if France were a perfect liberal democracy (rather than a savage dictatorship like Russia).

There is also a some/all argument involved. That some Ukrainians may be bad actors does not justify an armed attack aimed at the whole of Ukraine.

And yes, your comments are clearly Putin apologetics. For you to classify in advance comments pointing this out, calmly and rationally, as 'screams' suggests that you are not prepared to engage in rational discussion about it.

[jimbob]

Personally I think there were no good guys in this war. The Ukrainians do seem to have a high number of actual neo nazis and they don't even try to hide it. Some of their armed forces literally have SS insignia on their shoulders. The BBC had a piece where some military dude was showing some granny how to shoot and it's there in full view yet it didn't get a mention.
Along side that I've been reading reports today where black Ukrainians have been ordered off of busses transporting people out of the area and left behind and made to walk.
As I said, no good guys.

Cue the Putin apologist screams.....

Personally I think there are no good guys in WW2. The French did seem to have a high number of people with fascist tendencies, people who went on to run the Vichy regime. And don't get me started on antisemitism, the Poles were no angels in that regard. Along side that I've been reading reports where black American soldiers have been sent to the back of busses. Now I know the Holocaust was bad and all, but whatabout FDR putting Japanese Americans in internment camps? And let's not forget that Hitler didn't have African colonies to oppress unlike the British and French.
As I said, no good guys.

Cue the Hitler apologist screams.....

(I think it's fine to Godwin a thread for dishonest contrarians trying the old false-equivalence trick so loved by the far right and far left).

And there were people in the Sudaeten who probably did want to be part of Germany

[lpm]

No; the focus you have, is on the impact you perceive against YOU, that is your issue. You don't seem to really gaf about the impact on the people who are actually fighting at the moment.

The people who are actually fighting at the moment are probably going to die. Unless they surrender.

We could die too, if they don't surrender.

if you are down at the pub, you don't provoke the lout who is looking for a fight. You might have to swallow your pride and keep your mouth shut. It might be humiliating to you. But you should do it.

f.ck off revanchist apologist scum. Surrender does not bring safety, surrender brings murderous repression, people disappearing never to be seen again, murdered by fascists.

There's another option; to make the invaders bleed so badly they give up.

Come on.

Let’s celebrate diverse viewpoints. Let’s have more of it, not less.

Herainestold clearly has a valid point – if Ukraine surrenders immediately the short term death toll will be far lower.

Everyone can ignore Herainestold if they like, based on whether they think it’s worth engaging. Or can respond with arguments about short termism and long term loss of life. Or can give him his usual dose of teasing which Herainestold seems to take with good grace. But let’s not abuse people out of the discussion.

[TopBadger]

When addressing causes and motivations I generally try to turn the situation around for a moment...

If Scotland, home to the UK's naval base of Faslane, split from the UK and several years later were later led by some government totally at odds with the UK government (communist dictatorship, whatever), then could you imagine the UK invading Scotland to 'protect their interests'? I could.

Russia is doing the same... Crimea was a strategic naval base it had to get back. That was in 2014.

From there, how many options do you have? They've spent eight years in contesting this region, and there are only two options with closure, push on or pull out. They don't plan to give up Crimea and so they push on, for the naval base and because if you're an unelected dictator having yet another former soviet satellite making a success of democracy is bad for home rule. Making the Ukraine revert to a satellite state is an understandable aim for Putin.

It's f.cked up and wrong, and Putin deserves to be shot, but it's all entirely understandable, from Putin's point of view.

He's miscalculated the resolve of Ukraine (and the resolve and capability of his own ground forces) and the Russians are getting a bl..dy nose, I'm hoping the Russians will replace him as a result. I suspect most Russians don't share his hated or fear of the west, and would prefer to live a western life than the hardships they currently face. I think there is an 80% chance he's ended his own reign with this incursion. Lets hope his General's don't let him do anything more stupid than he has already before putting him down.

[Stranger Mouse]

It is my peril. And yours. And all of ours.

No; the focus you have, is on the impact you perceive against YOU, that is your issue. You don't seem to really gaf about the impact on the people who are actually fighting at the moment.

The people who are actually fighting at the moment are probably going to die. Unless they surrender.

We could die too, if they don't surrender.

if you are down at the pub, you don't provoke the lout who is looking for a fight. You might have to swallow your pride and keep your mouth shut. It might be humiliating to you. But you should do it.

You may not provoke that lout but you don’t ignore him either. I am touched by your faith in Putin that if we withdraw opposition that things immediately settle down rather than him taking the view that he can invade country after country and just threaten nuclear action every time someone objects.

According to Brian Klaas nuclear deterrents work best as invasion insurance (“don’t invade us unless you want to risk horrific consequences “) - it has definitely worked for North Korea in that manner. I can see Putin using a threat of nuclear obliteration in trade negotiations.

Remember when a Russian spokesman said “one should not threaten a nuclear power” when people complained about Putin arranging assassinations in Salisbury? https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ ... wer-325001

At some point the lout in the pub has to be dealt with. The fact that the task is difficult to do without escalating the situation doesn’t mean you don’t have to do it.

Edited to add link

[jimbob]

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-698890

Russian invasion a 'solution to Ukrainian question' - Russian state news
A quickly deleted article referred to the independence of Belarus and Ukraine as a "terrible catastrophe."

"Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together — in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians (a term used before the 20th century to refer to what is now Ukrainian territory)," continued the article.

"Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations," wrote Akopov.

[headshot]

A friend on mine has a theory:

Putin is being badly advised by someone close to him on purpose…in order to undermine him and either take his place, or install someone.

I tend to think that Putin has just overestimated his own ability, but there is a little comfort in thinking that there’s a plan to overthrow him.

[Bird on a Fire]

People tend love the idea that there's a clever plan explaining tragedies - see also covid conspiracy theories, for instance.