The Invasion of Ukraine

[Bird on a Fire]

For instance, Wikipedia tells me annexing Crimea took over a month, with 20-30k Russian troops (plus a lot of local support).

There's five times as many Russian troops in Ukraine right now, but Ukraine is more than five times bigger.

So it would be surprising if many Russian military types actually really genuinely thought they could take over the whole country in a week, no?

It seems a bit premature and cocky, to me, to assume this is all happening because Putin has gone mad.

I don't think he's gone mad. But I do think he's possibly been misled about the capabilities of his military. And possibly the likelihood of local support.

It's easy to invade a country if those who would fight you, instead welcome you.

Totes.

It does seem clear that Plan A was some false flag attack to lend "legitimacy" to the invasion, and that they got rumbled.

But even if they were assuming Crimea-levels of welcome across the whole country, expecting an effective annexation in a week would be utterly absurd: that'd be four times faster than Crimea, for a much bigger area. I don't buy it. That deleted article could easily have been deleted for other reasons, eg inconsistency with other bits of propaganda, or because nobody was buying it. (They do a lot of A/B testing etc with propaganda.)

I'm sure they weren't expecting this level of resistance, but I think it's highly unlikely they really thought they'd take the whole place in a week or even a month - if that's even what they're trying to do.

[plodder]

I'm enjoying Plodder's "all going to plan" theory.

uh huh

[Stranger Mouse]

For instance, Wikipedia tells me annexing Crimea took over a month, with 20-30k Russian troops (plus a lot of local support).

There's five times as many Russian troops in Ukraine right now, but Ukraine is more than five times bigger.

So it would be surprising if many Russian military types actually really genuinely thought they could take over the whole country in a week, no?

It seems a bit premature and cocky, to me, to assume this is all happening because Putin has gone mad.

I think it’s more likely they thought they could install a puppet government in a week when the movers and shakers in Ukraine surrendered or fled the country (see Afghanistan) and then settle in for the longer term for the rest of the country. To be honest it’s what I would have expected to happen to a greater or lesser extent.

[plodder]

For instance, Wikipedia tells me annexing Crimea took over a month, with 20-30k Russian troops (plus a lot of local support).

There's five times as many Russian troops in Ukraine right now, but Ukraine is more than five times bigger.

So it would be surprising if many Russian military types actually really genuinely thought they could take over the whole country in a week, no?

It seems a bit premature and cocky, to me, to assume this is all happening because Putin has gone mad.

I think it’s more likely they thought they could install a puppet government in a week when the movers and shakers in Ukraine surrendered or fled the country (see Afghanistan) and then settle in for the longer term for the rest of the country. To be honest it’s what I would have expected to happen to a greater or lesser extent.

a week???

[Bird on a Fire]

For instance, Wikipedia tells me annexing Crimea took over a month, with 20-30k Russian troops (plus a lot of local support).

There's five times as many Russian troops in Ukraine right now, but Ukraine is more than five times bigger.

So it would be surprising if many Russian military types actually really genuinely thought they could take over the whole country in a week, no?

It seems a bit premature and cocky, to me, to assume this is all happening because Putin has gone mad.

I think it’s more likely they thought they could install a puppet government in a week when the movers and shakers in Ukraine surrendered or fled the country (see Afghanistan) and then settle in for the longer term for the rest of the country. To be honest it’s what I would have expected to happen to a greater or lesser extent.

But, again, that took a month+ in Crimea without any disruption to their groundwork.

If they were planning to take over the whole of Ukraine they'd have planned for more than a few weeks of action.

[Gfamily]

I think the plan and the expectation was some sort of Blitzkrieg, but it's turned out to be far more attritional.

[Stranger Mouse]

For instance, Wikipedia tells me annexing Crimea took over a month, with 20-30k Russian troops (plus a lot of local support).

There's five times as many Russian troops in Ukraine right now, but Ukraine is more than five times bigger.

So it would be surprising if many Russian military types actually really genuinely thought they could take over the whole country in a week, no?

It seems a bit premature and cocky, to me, to assume this is all happening because Putin has gone mad.

I think it’s more likely they thought they could install a puppet government in a week when the movers and shakers in Ukraine surrendered or fled the country (see Afghanistan) and then settle in for the longer term for the rest of the country. To be honest it’s what I would have expected to happen to a greater or lesser extent.

But, again, that took a month+ in Crimea without any disruption to their groundwork.

If they were planning to take over the whole of Ukraine they'd have planned for more than a few weeks of action.

Yeah I agree. Probably years. But I really don’t think that they thought it would take three weeks to get to this stage.

[Bird on a Fire]

The Kremlin's denial that it's even happening seems untenable long term. Tricky to keep a full invasion a secret for months-years.

[Opti]

plodder comes in and everyone falls for his trolling. All going to plan. This'll take longer than a week.

[lpm]

BoaF, where did you get the idea that the seizure of Crimea took a month??

It all happened in a couple of hours.

[TopBadger]

I'm enjoying Plodder's "all going to plan" theory.

Quite... but apparently it's EOSTFU time... It's impressive to be able to bury ones head in sand that far that all the information that indicates this is a Russian clusterf.ck of epic proportions is disregarded and to instead believe the guy who said 'we're not going to invade Ukraine' when he now says 'everything in going to plan'.

[EACLucifer]

I think the plan and the expectation was some sort of Blitzkrieg, but it's turned out to be far more attritional.

Blyatskrieg

[bjn]

For instance, Wikipedia tells me annexing Crimea took over a month, with 20-30k Russian troops (plus a lot of local support).

There's five times as many Russian troops in Ukraine right now, but Ukraine is more than five times bigger.

So it would be surprising if many Russian military types actually really genuinely thought they could take over the whole country in a week, no?

It seems a bit premature and cocky, to me, to assume this is all happening because Putin has gone mad.

A comparison to another battle in another war is worthwhile.

It took about 13,000 coalition troops to take Fallujah. The coalition troops were way better trained, supplied and armed than the Russians attacking the Ukraine. They were faced by a highly motivated force who numbered only a few thousand poorly armed and trained insurgents. It took six weeks of brutal fighting to take the city where the coalition lost something like 100 troops in all.

Kiev is roughly 10X the size of Fallujah, and is only one city, and the Russians initially committed ~200,000 troops to take all the Ukraine.The Ukrainians had 245,000 regulars at the start of the war. While the Russians have way more hardware than the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians are way better equipped and trained than the militants in Fallujah. Attacking is hard, attacking cities is harder.

Todate the Russians have lost nearly 1500 vehicles, aircraft and other significant pieces of equipment. Thousands of troops are dead, probably in six figures, with multiples on that wounded. The Ukrainians have actually captured more pieces of hardware than they've lost to the Russians.

The only way this could have worked with the initial forces committed is if the Ukrainians had given up in the first few days in despair after a decapitation. That the Ukranians didn't is a huge intelligence failure by the Russians. To do what they wanted, they needed a way bigger force who were better supplied and trained. Now they are desperately dragging more troops into it from across the arse end of Russia to keep it going while begging client states to commit troops. The Uzbeks said no and Belarusian troops are nowhere to be seen.

They f.cked up. Massively. They may still pull it off, but it is going to cost them much more blood and treasure than they thought it would. Hopefully it all fails for them and all that death and wasted resources will cause a regime collapse.

[EACLucifer]

For example, here we see Russian helicopters and trucks burning after a successful Ukrainian attack. This series of attacks destroyed at least sixteen Russian helicopters, and potentially damaged several more, as well as a significant number of trucks.

at the risk of bordering on trolling, can you not see how this comes across?

Waaah I can't trust any western intelligence even though they called the buildup extremely accurately

<is handed evidence of massive Russian setback that corroborates those claims>

Waaah people are posting pictures of war stuff

[EACLucifer]

As a quick reference, Russia, a country with less than half the population of the US, is losing as many troops killed a day as America lost a year in Iraq and Afghanistan put together, according to some of the most conservative Western estimates.

To put it another way, in about three weeks, they've lost about half of what they lost in a decade in Afghanistan in the 80s, when the sheer amount of "Cargo 200" contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

[Bird on a Fire]

BoaF, where did you get the idea that the seizure of Crimea took a month??

It all happened in a couple of hours.

I couldn't remember all the details from the time (I was writing my dissertation), but the wiki account gives pro-Russian demonstrations beginning in earnest February 23nd following a Kremlin meeting, Russian troops seizing the council on 27th, and significant military presence still on the 4th of March at least. Independence declared on the 17th, declared part of Russia on the 21st. And there had been demonstrations by pro-Russian organisations before then.

I know not all of that was proper fighty fighting, but they had to do more than just occupy a government building for a few hours to take the territory. But happy to be corrected, hence my earlier question about how numbers/density of Russian forces compares with the Crimean annexation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexat ... Federation

[plodder]

I'm enjoying Plodder's "all going to plan" theory.

Quite... but apparently it's EOSTFU time... It's impressive to be able to bury ones head in sand that far that all the information that indicates this is a Russian clusterf.ck of epic proportions is disregarded and to instead believe the guy who said 'we're not going to invade Ukraine' when he now says 'everything in going to plan'.

But your evidence is wafer thin. It's based on what people shout about on twitter. You need to reflect on the fact that a month ago no-one had a strong opinion on how long it would take to conquer Ukraine, but now we're surrounded by experts and opinion.

[EACLucifer]

I'm enjoying Plodder's "all going to plan" theory.

Quite... but apparently it's EOSTFU time... It's impressive to be able to bury ones head in sand that far that all the information that indicates this is a Russian clusterf.ck of epic proportions is disregarded and to instead believe the guy who said 'we're not going to invade Ukraine' when he now says 'everything in going to plan'.

But your evidence is wafer thin. It's based on what people shout about on twitter. You need to reflect on the fact that a month ago no-one had a strong opinion on how long it would take to conquer Ukraine, but now we're surrounded by experts and opinion.

Both of these points are complete and utter b.llsh.t.

[EACLucifer]

Christo Grozev is covering something interesting right now - rumours that Rosgvardia's deputy chief, General Gavrilov, has been detained by the FSB, with Russian media now reporting he's been fired.

This comes on the heels of news that a couple of top FSB men are now under house arrest.

[Stranger Mouse]

Bit of top propaganda from Arnie here.

https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/150 ... 50625?s=21

[plodder]

Quite... but apparently it's EOSTFU time... It's impressive to be able to bury ones head in sand that far that all the information that indicates this is a Russian clusterf.ck of epic proportions is disregarded and to instead believe the guy who said 'we're not going to invade Ukraine' when he now says 'everything in going to plan'.

But your evidence is wafer thin. It's based on what people shout about on twitter. You need to reflect on the fact that a month ago no-one had a strong opinion on how long it would take to conquer Ukraine, but now we're surrounded by experts and opinion.

Both of these points are complete and utter b.llsh.t.

All I've had in response to "why do you think it was supposed to be over by now" is "it was on state TV in Russia and then immediately withdrawn".

I don't think it's going to plan - I don't pretend to know what the plan is.

[EACLucifer]

But your evidence is wafer thin. It's based on what people shout about on twitter. You need to reflect on the fact that a month ago no-one had a strong opinion on how long it would take to conquer Ukraine, but now we're surrounded by experts and opinion.

Both of these points are complete and utter b.llsh.t.

All I've had in response to "why do you think it was supposed to be over by now" is "it was on state TV in Russia and then immediately withdrawn".

I don't think it's going to plan - I don't pretend to know what the plan is.

You are a f.cking imbecile, you shriek every time people try to explain things, then whine that you hasn't been given evidence when the truth is you are too f.cking precious to look at the evidence.

As for plans, abandoning so many tanks that your enemy actually increases their number of tanks (minimum captured Russian tanks 104, minimum Ukraine tank losses total 66) is not sticking to any not-completely-and-utterly-insane plan.

[plodder]

I mean, wtf?

Where's the evidence this was supposed to be a three week thing? Anyone?

[jimbob]

I mean, wtf?

Where's the evidence this was supposed to be a three week thing? Anyone?

There is no evidence that Putin thought it was going to be a short simple invasion.

Apart from state media congratulating Putin on his success in a pre-prepared opinion piece? Which would only make sense if isolated, uncoordinated resistance was all that was left.

And throwing away his elite paratroopers on capturing (then losing) Kyiv airport?

Or his recent announcement that mighty Russia is going to import 16,000 fighters from Syria?

Or his arresting senior leaders in his security apparatus.

-------------------------------

Despite your wilful blindness, there is plenty of evidence of Russian overconfidence. There is now evidence of cracks in Putin's regime that were not visible (or indeed present) four weeks ago. I think that Putin is still likely to remain in power, but in mid February, this was not even a question.

[lpm]

BoaF, where did you get the idea that the seizure of Crimea took a month??

It all happened in a couple of hours.

I couldn't remember all the details from the time (I was writing my dissertation), but the wiki account gives pro-Russian demonstrations beginning in earnest February 23nd following a Kremlin meeting, Russian troops seizing the council on 27th, and significant military presence still on the 4th of March at least. Independence declared on the 17th, declared part of Russia on the 21st. And there had been demonstrations by pro-Russian organisations before then.

I know not all of that was proper fighty fighting, but they had to do more than just occupy a government building for a few hours to take the territory. But happy to be corrected, hence my earlier question about how numbers/density of Russian forces compares with the Crimean annexation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexat ... Federation

WTF? Wiki is very clear.

It all happened on 27 Feb. Seize the two roads in and out with little green men. Round up the local government, take their phones, herd them into the chamber at gunpoint and order them to vote in a pro Russian council and declare a referendum for a month's time. Fill the streets with Russia military and arrange pro Russia rallies.

Took two hours.

Ukraine had zero way to respond militarily. There was no fighty fighting because the correct option for any Ukraine forces was to run away.

That was exactly the model Putin was expecting. Charge in on 24 Feb. Expect political chaos in Kyiv, get some puppet to declare themselves the legitimate government. Pro Russia rallies in all cities, violent clashes with anti Russia rallies. Zelensky killed, captured or fled to Lviv. Two competing governments, the proper one telling Ukraine to fight, the puppet one telling forces to surrender and restore peace to the streets.

Turmoil everywhere. Proper fighty fighting between Russian forces and Ukraine military, with Ukraine losing steadily. Move across Ukraine to trap and destroy all proper Ukrainian forces. Rely on local pro Russian police and military to control cities. Scare NATO from getting involved because it's a fait accompli.

After a few months it evolves into an insurgency, where pro Russian Ukrainians are trained and equipped to fight "terrorists". The same civil war model used by the west in Afghanistan.