The Invasion of Ukraine

[Stranger Mouse]

I don’t think anyone thought they would have total control of the country in a few days or weeks. But many people did think they would have effective control of the government in that time period and the rest would follow in due course.

[Herainestold]

I don’t think anyone thought they would have total control of the country in a few days or weeks. But many people did think they would have effective control of the government in that time period and the rest would follow in due course.

That was Plan A. Plan B is to smash the cities into smithereens and it could take considerably longer.

[jimbob]

I don’t think anyone thought they would have total control of the country in a few days or weeks. But many people did think they would have effective control of the government in that time period and the rest would follow in due course.

That was Plan A. Plan B is to smash the cities into smithereens and it could take considerably longer.

You have evidence that there was a plan B before the invasion, I presume?

[Stranger Mouse]

I don’t think anyone thought they would have total control of the country in a few days or weeks. But many people did think they would have effective control of the government in that time period and the rest would follow in due course.

That was Plan A. Plan B is to smash the cities into smithereens and it could take considerably longer.

I think that the current plan of total destruction has become clear.

Richard Engel saying that the multiple strikes on food storage facilities shows it can’t be an accident https://twitter.com/richardengel/status ... 33829?s=21

[EACLucifer]

I don’t think anyone thought they would have total control of the country in a few days or weeks. But many people did think they would have effective control of the government in that time period and the rest would follow in due course.

That was Plan A. Plan B is to smash the cities into smithereens and it could take considerably longer.

I think that the current plan of total destruction has become clear.

Richard Engel saying that the multiple strikes on food storage facilities shows it can’t be an accident https://twitter.com/richardengel/status ... 33829?s=21

Again from the Syria playbook - hundreds of civilians died in attacks on bakeries alone.

[Herainestold]

I don’t think anyone thought they would have total control of the country in a few days or weeks. But many people did think they would have effective control of the government in that time period and the rest would follow in due course.

That was Plan A. Plan B is to smash the cities into smithereens and it could take considerably longer.

You have evidence that there was a plan B before the invasion, I presume?

I'm just speculating, like everybody else. I get the impression that it is very ad hoc.

[Bird on a Fire]

BoaF, where did you get the idea that the seizure of Crimea took a month??

It all happened in a couple of hours.

I couldn't remember all the details from the time (I was writing my dissertation), but the wiki account gives pro-Russian demonstrations beginning in earnest February 23nd following a Kremlin meeting, Russian troops seizing the council on 27th, and significant military presence still on the 4th of March at least. Independence declared on the 17th, declared part of Russia on the 21st. And there had been demonstrations by pro-Russian organisations before then.

I know not all of that was proper fighty fighting, but they had to do more than just occupy a government building for a few hours to take the territory. But happy to be corrected, hence my earlier question about how numbers/density of Russian forces compares with the Crimean annexation.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexat ... Federation

WTF? Wiki is very clear.

It all happened on 27 Feb. Seize the two roads in and out with little green men. Round up the local government, take their phones, herd them into the chamber at gunpoint and order them to vote in a pro Russian council and declare a referendum for a month's time. Fill the streets with Russia military and arrange pro Russia rallies.

Took two hours.

Ukraine had zero way to respond militarily. There was no fighty fighting because the correct option for any Ukraine forces was to run away.

That was exactly the model Putin was expecting. Charge in on 24 Feb. Expect political chaos in Kyiv, get some puppet to declare themselves the legitimate government. Pro Russia rallies in all cities, violent clashes with anti Russia rallies. Zelensky killed, captured or fled to Lviv. Two competing governments, the proper one telling Ukraine to fight, the puppet one telling forces to surrender and restore peace to the streets.

Turmoil everywhere. Proper fighty fighting between Russian forces and Ukraine military, with Ukraine losing steadily. Move across Ukraine to trap and destroy all proper Ukrainian forces. Rely on local pro Russian police and military to control cities. Scare NATO from getting involved because it's a fait accompli.

After a few months it evolves into an insurgency, where pro Russian Ukrainians are trained and equipped to fight "terrorists". The same civil war model used by the west in Afghanistan.

Fair enough - I stand corrected. It would set a precedent for a quick easy invasion.

[Herainestold]

A little history delves in to the possible thinking of Putin with respect to Russia and the West.

To a degree little understood by many Westerners, Russian literary figures they revere, such as Fyodor Dostoevsky and Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, were also devotees of this idea of a “greater Russia” under an absolute autocrat. Solzhenitsyn, the Nobel Prize-winning author best known for writings that exposed the horrors of the Soviet gulag, later became one of Putin’s favorite intellectuals. Before his 2008 death, Solzhenitsyn wrote in an essay: “All the talk of a separate Ukrainian people existing since something like the ninth century and possessing its own non-Russian language is recently invented falsehood.” Shortly before his death in 1881, Dostoevsky wrote: “To the people the Czar is the incarnation of themselves, their whole ideology, their hopes and beliefs.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/12/pu ... ket-newtab

[Vertigowooyay]

CGTN America - international arm of Chinese State Media - is reporting on Russian soldiers killing civilians queuing for bread.

So, China reporting negatively on Russian actions. And according to Bild, Lavrov’s plane, on the way to China, turned round mid flight and returned to Russia.

Sounds like China is being a bit new phone, who dis?

[Stranger Mouse]

CGTN America - international arm of Chinese State Media - is reporting on Russian soldiers killing civilians queuing for bread.

So, China reporting negatively on Russian actions. And according to Bild, Lavrov’s plane, on the way to China, turned round mid flight and returned to Russia.

Sounds like China is being a bit new phone, who dis?

Interesting thread discussing just that
https://twitter.com/beijingpalmer/statu ... 84704?s=21

[headshot]

Your last two sentences - it's only been what, three weeks?? On what planet does someone conquer an enormous country made of mud in three weeks?

Not sure, but we’re talking about people who decided to drive 40 mile long convoys of poorly maintained vehicles down a road without adequate supply lines…

what, the convoy that moved on a week ago?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60702464

Yes. That’s it. The one that didn’t achieve its objective.

[plodder]

in all seriousness: how can you be so sure? do you know where the vehicles are now?

[headshot]

in all seriousness: how can you be so sure? do you know where the vehicles are now?

Umm. Are you seriously suggesting that their plan was to create Ukraine’s largest ever traffic jam on the main road to Kyiv as a feint before they melted into the countryside with no clear route or objective?

[plodder]

Of course not, I’ve no way of knowing what the plan was. A huge military convoy was delayed for a few days. It looked to me like the military equivalent of teething problems but what do I know?

The people I trust in all this stuff (say, Bellingcat) are avoiding saying Russia is behind schedule, instead focussing on things like “Russia is dropping cluster bombs on civilians”. This to me suggest Russia is and always has been in it for the long haul* (unless someone fancies revisiting the arguments that Russian plans and logistics are so poor, in which case explain why they prioritised cluster bombs and pinpointing maternity hospitals over whatever thing you think they’re lacking)


*unless you think this vast incompetent clapped out war machine is now able to pivot on a sixpence?

[plodder]

Trustworthy analysis:

https://mobile.twitter.com/revrrlewis/s ... 0654823428

[Stranger Mouse]

Ofcom revokes licence of RT

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/la ... tv-novosti

[plodder]

Ofcom revokes licence of RT

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/la ... tv-novosti

Had they done anything specific or is this just to show that Nadine Dorries can be even tougher than Priti Patel?

[Stranger Mouse]

Ofcom revokes licence of RT

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/la ... tv-novosti

Had they done anything specific or is this just to show that Nadine Dorries can be even tougher than Priti Patel?

Have you considered actually clicking the link? There’s all types of stuff there giving the rationale.

It includes:

7. Following our own monitoring of RT’s coverage in the UK of the conflict in Ukraine, and in response to complaints 13, Ofcom has opened 15 investigations into the due impartiality of news programmes on the RT news channel broadcast on Sunday 27 February 2022, a further 12 investigations into news programmes broadcast on Tuesday 1 March 2022, an investigation into a documentary broadcast on that day, and an investigation into a news programme broadcast on Wednesday 2 March 2022.14

[plodder]

did you read it? There were complaints and ongoing investigations. Doesn’t say who complained and why, and the investigations haven’t finished. This is more political theatre and propaganda than preventing dangerous fifth columnists from controlling our minds (which is how they’ll spin it)

[Stranger Mouse]

did you read it? There were complaints and ongoing investigations. Doesn’t say who complained and why, and the investigations haven’t finished. This is more political theatre and propaganda than preventing dangerous fifth columnists from controlling our minds (which is how they’ll spin it)

Yes I have read it. You may also like to read this part of the rationale (which I’m not saying I agree with but it seems pretty clear)

30. However, the Russian Federation’s current conduct in Ukraine is, in our view, exceptional. No other Ofcom broadcast licensee is financially dependent on a state whose head of state, President Putin, has been personally sanctioned by the UK 22 for launching a war of aggression against a neighbouring state. The Editor in Chief of the service, Margarita Simonyan, is also personally subject to UK sanctions.23
31. In addition, ANO TV Novosti is the state broadcaster of, and funded by, a state which has, in connection with that war of aggression, prohibited the “Public dissemination of falsehoods about the use of Russia’s armed forces” 24, and the Russian authorities have reportedly made it clear that calling it a “war” is considered fake news. 25 Penalties of up to 15 years in jail are associated with breach of the law.
32. The Russian state news agency has quoted the Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying “The law was necessary in the light of an absolutely unprecedented campaign... not even a campaign, but an information war that has been unleashed against our country. In the context of this information war a proportionately harsh law was needed. And it was passed.” 26 The same agency has published without challenge, that, for example, the Russian Defence Ministry asserts: “Russian troops are not targeting Ukrainian cities, but are limited to surgically striking and incapacitating Ukrainian military infrastructure. There are no threats whatsoever to the civilian population” 27.

33. For so long as ANO TV Novosti holds a broadcast licence there is a clear implication that Ofcom considers it to be a “fit and proper” person to hold a licence28. We consider that the circumstances set out above, bring the integrity of the broadcast licensing regime in the UK as a whole into question.
34. In particular, it is difficult to see how any news provider based in Russia could cover the events in Ukraine responsibly in circumstances where a law appears to prohibit with a potential criminal penalty of 15 years imprisonment, for example, the dissemination of information that civilians are being killed by Russian forces or that a war is going on. It is also difficult to see how a Russian state-funded news broadcaster could credibly avoid covering the events in Ukraine, or could expect to remain funded if it failed to convey the narrative that the Russian Federation seeks to impose on its own people and the rest of the world. We therefore are concerned that it is not possible to be satisfied that a news broadcaster based in Russia and which is currently subject to such a law, is fit and proper to hold an Ofcom licence, a condition of which requires its news to be duly accurate and duly impartial 29.

[plodder]

Yes, it's clearly politically motivated. You think Ofcom are independent?

[Stranger Mouse]

Ok I’m out.

[EACLucifer]

Trustworthy analysis:

https://mobile.twitter.com/revrrlewis/s ... 0654823428

Do stop being a c.nt and f.ck all the way off, there's a good chap.

[lpm]

Plodder you are Sheldraking stop it.

Everyone else, can we please ignore Plodder until he stops Sheldraking?

[lpm]

Interesting thread on demographics. Not enough young Russian men.

And a policy idea - offer surrendering Russians a holiday somewhere warm, plus a cash prize if they sabotage their own equipment.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 6834457619