The Invasion of Ukraine

[plodder]

Plodder you are Sheldraking stop it.

Everyone else, can we please ignore Plodder until he stops Sheldraking?

Ach, fine. Fill your boots.

[lpm]

Black Sea fleet wandering towards Odesa again.

Russia invested a huge amount in its Navy. And no doubt admirals boasted about how amazing they were. Putin must be pretty pissed off that his expensive fleet can't do anything more than capture a tiny island and is scared of approaching the coast.

Hence the navy will have to pretend they can do it and Putin will tell them to attack?

[jimbob]

It's well within Ofcom's remit, and Russia Today has violated these for a long time.


https://www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-and-o ... y-accuracy

Due impartiality and due accuracy in news
5.1: News, in whatever form, must be reported with due accuracy and presented with due impartiality.

5.2: Significant mistakes in news should normally be acknowledged and corrected on air quickly (or, in the case of BBC ODPS, corrected quickly). Corrections should be appropriately scheduled (or, in the case of BBC ODPS, appropriately signaled to viewers).

5.3: No politician may be used as a newsreader, interviewer or reporter in any news programmes unless, exceptionally, it is editorially justified. In that case, the political allegiance of that person must be made clear to the audience.

Matters of major political or industrial controversy and major matters relating to current public policy
5.11: In addition to the rules above, due impartiality must be preserved on matters of major political and industrial controversy and major matters relating to current public policy by the person providing a service (listed above) in each programme or in clearly linked and timely programmes.

The prevention of undue prominence of views and opinions on matters of political or industrial controversy and matters relating to current public policy
(Rule 5.13 applies to local radio services (including community radio services), local digital sound programme services (including community digital sound programme services) and radio licensable content services. For the avoidance of doubt, it does not apply to any BBC services.)

5.13: Broadcasters should not give undue prominence to the views and opinions of particular persons or bodies on matters of political or industrial controversy and matters relating to current public policy in all the programmes included in any service (listed above) taken as a whole.

[temptar]

Interesting thread on demographics. Not enough young Russian men.

And a policy idea - offer surrendering Russians a holiday somewhere warm, plus a cash prize if they sabotage their own equipment.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 6834457619

You should take a look at this one two. It is maybe a little more complex: https://mobile.twitter.com/simongerman6 ... 3913958402

[EACLucifer]

Black Sea fleet wandering towards Odesa again.

Russia invested a huge amount in its Navy. And no doubt admirals boasted about how amazing they were. Putin must be pretty pissed off that his expensive fleet can't do anything more than capture a tiny island and is scared of approaching the coast.

Hence the navy will have to pretend they can do it and Putin will tell them to attack?

Perhaps the next tranche of military aid could include some Exocets or Harpoons? The Russians may not be able to easily land, but they are able to fire on coastal targets and tie up defenders, a few sunken Russian ships would change that.

[TopBadger]

Perhaps the next tranche of military aid could include some Exocets or Harpoons? The Russians may not be able to easily land, but they are able to fire on coastal targets and tie up defenders, a few sunken Russian ships would change that.

I would be surprised if this isn't being talked about... it's somewhat escalatory to provide anti-ship cruise missiles but perhaps this the only way to save Odessa from naval bombardment and risk losing a strategic port. There is also the question of whether or not there are Ukrainian personnel trained to use them.

[EACLucifer]

Perhaps the next tranche of military aid could include some Exocets or Harpoons? The Russians may not be able to easily land, but they are able to fire on coastal targets and tie up defenders, a few sunken Russian ships would change that.

I would be surprised if this isn't being talked about... it's somewhat escalatory to provide anti-ship cruise missiles but perhaps this the only way to save Odessa from naval bombardment and risk losing a strategic port. There is also the question of whether or not there are Ukrainian personnel trained to use them.

Perhaps it's time to start actively seeking out International Legion volunteers with the right experience? Either to oversee the operation of the equipment, or to train others, potentially outside of Ukraine. Another option would be to divert Ukrainian returnees or International Legion volunteers via an appropriate training course.

[lpm]

Interesting thread on demographics. Not enough young Russian men.

And a policy idea - offer surrendering Russians a holiday somewhere warm, plus a cash prize if they sabotage their own equipment.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 6834457619

You should take a look at this one two. It is maybe a little more complex: https://mobile.twitter.com/simongerman6 ... 3913958402

Interesting. 2022-23 is the minimum number of men 18-27, the conscription age. We think of the endless Red Army casualties but there couldn't be a worse time to launch an attritional war.

Hard to tell what matters:

- wars determined by the big picture of economic strength and demographics, combined with the fundamental geography of the world
- wars determined by the personal qualities of one leader, Putin, vs another leader, Zelensky, plus a few generals like Rommel vs Montgomery
- wars determined by technological ability, weapons vs weapons
- wars determined by the small tactical battles on the ground and the personal heroism of a few

[dyqik]

I wonder how much of that demographic issue plays into the politics of Russia, and Putin's desire to win a war?

(Or in other words "f.cking Boomers" )

[jimbob]

I doubt that boombers f.cking would affect the demographics

[EACLucifer]

In terms of numbers, Ukraine's reservists+army outnumber the Russian forces in Ukraine, with hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians heading home from abroad to join in, and masses of local volunteers. Russia is suffering pretty severe attrition, too - a few days ago, it was more than ten percent of their force. The key for western support is to enable Ukraine to mobilise, and to counter Russia's potential force multipliers, most notably airpower. Training and arming Ukraine's defenders is a good way to do this without directly intervening against Russian forces. Russia's advantage isn't numbers, it's airpower, ships and artillery.

So I'm pleased to see reports that the UK is training Ukrainians to use Starstreak missiles, which should arrive "imminently" (from BBC)

We should be taking the same approach with more capable SAMs, anti-shipping missiles, and drones.

[Herainestold]

How Russia’s mistakes and Ukrainian resistance altered Putin’s war

Visual story telling team at FT put together this summary of how it is going for the Russians in Ukraine.

The snarled up 65km Russian convoy that was stuck for days outside Kyiv neatly illustrated Moscow’s misplaced belief that it could achieve a lightning-fast victory in Ukraine.

Western military analysts say Russia’s leadership initially thought its “special military operation” would reach the capital and other big Ukrainian cities in days, forcing Volodymyr Zelensky’s government to capitulate and allow a puppet administration to be installed.

“It’s clear that Russia was pursuing regime change in Ukraine,” said Michael Kofman, Russia studies director at CNA, a US think-tank. “Regime change operations are often derived of hubris and bad assumptions — and they usually go terribly wrong.”

https://ig.ft.com/russias-war-in-ukraine-mapped/

[Herainestold]

Yes, it's clearly politically motivated. You think Ofcom are independent?

I don't care much either way about RT, nobody I know, even on the far left, took them seriously.

How do they let GB news keep going? It seems like they are breaking the same rules.

[Stranger Mouse]

Yes, it's clearly politically motivated. You think Ofcom are independent?

I don't care much either way about RT, nobody I know, even on the far left, took them seriously.

How do they let GB news keep going? It seems like they are breaking the same rules.

One major difference, for all the shiteness of GB news, is the nature of RT as a organisation which is funded by the Russian government which has total editorial control - the same government which has threatened people with 15 years in prison for saying the war is a war. This is actually discussed at some length in the release if you go to the trouble of clicking on the link.

[Stranger Mouse]

How Russia’s mistakes and Ukrainian resistance altered Putin’s war

Visual story telling team at FT put together this summary of how it is going for the Russians in Ukraine.

The snarled up 65km Russian convoy that was stuck for days outside Kyiv neatly illustrated Moscow’s misplaced belief that it could achieve a lightning-fast victory in Ukraine.

Western military analysts say Russia’s leadership initially thought its “special military operation” would reach the capital and other big Ukrainian cities in days, forcing Volodymyr Zelensky’s government to capitulate and allow a puppet administration to be installed.

“It’s clear that Russia was pursuing regime change in Ukraine,” said Michael Kofman, Russia studies director at CNA, a US think-tank. “Regime change operations are often derived of hubris and bad assumptions — and they usually go terribly wrong.”

https://ig.ft.com/russias-war-in-ukraine-mapped/

That is very good. Thanks for the link.

[plodder]

honestly, f.ck this. that FT link starts with "let's all assume without thinking that <insert blitzkrieg narrative here> - now, here are some snazzy The Day Today graphics"

you lot are swallowing this stuff without chewing. by all means moan about trolling if you don't like someone pointing this out, but it doesn't change the fact that probably the majority of people posting here are being credulous as hell.

[Pishwish]

People think you are trolling because you want answers to military questions, but you delight in your ignorance of the very subject area that may provide those answers. Any amateur observer can be dismissed as either some credulous adolescent loser and any professional analyst is someone pushing a militaristic Western agenda. It's a bit like the anti-lockdowners who claimed they wanted to know why the lockdown couldn't end, but instead of trying to understand all that nerdy adolescent science stuff they preferred the idea that it was all about Big Pharma and the secret motivations of nanny-state academics and doctors. So the same approach is required: state what you actually want to know and whether there is any realistic evidence that would actually convince you. Or do you just want to say who knows, nothing can be determined until Putin dies or the archives are declassified in 50 years time?

[plodder]

People think you are trolling because you want answers to military questions, but you delight in your ignorance of the very subject area that may provide those answers. Any amateur observer can be dismissed as either some credulous adolescent loser and any professional analyst is someone pushing a militaristic Western agenda. It's a bit like the anti-lockdowners who claimed they wanted to know why the lockdown couldn't end, but instead of trying to understand all that nerdy adolescent science stuff they preferred the idea that it was all about Big Pharma and the secret motivations of nanny-state academics and doctors. So the same approach is required: state what you actually want to know and whether there is any realistic evidence that would actually convince you. Or do you just want to say who knows, nothing can be determined until Putin dies or the archives are declassified in 50 years time?

There's very little data on here, but a lot of copy pasta from twitter. I see a lot of people getting very excited about this copy pasta but they're not admitting that they're being bathtub admirals - instead they get extremely defensive when their game playing is challenged. I absolutely think the "Putin is an idiot" theme is being pushed as part of a propaganda drive and although I also take heart from the farmers stealing tanks and civilians showing immense bravery I suspect this isn't going to mean Russia gets pushed back in a matter of weeks because they run out of young people, or fuel, or rations, or tyres, or trucks or whatever is racing through the twittersphere this morning.

In terms of evidence it looks very much to me like Russia is continually and steadily advancing. In terms of the detail as to how they'll hold this territory I have literally no idea how to tell other than to wait and see. I don't share the over-confidence of some here that they understand what's going on and I note that when I call this out I'm subjected to vitriol rather than evidence. You're right, this is very much like dealing with the instant epidemiologists during lockdown, but in even poorer taste.

[Stranger Mouse]

People think you are trolling because you want answers to military questions, but you delight in your ignorance of the very subject area that may provide those answers. Any amateur observer can be dismissed as either some credulous adolescent loser and any professional analyst is someone pushing a militaristic Western agenda. It's a bit like the anti-lockdowners who claimed they wanted to know why the lockdown couldn't end, but instead of trying to understand all that nerdy adolescent science stuff they preferred the idea that it was all about Big Pharma and the secret motivations of nanny-state academics and doctors. So the same approach is required: state what you actually want to know and whether there is any realistic evidence that would actually convince you. Or do you just want to say who knows, nothing can be determined until Putin dies or the archives are declassified in 50 years time?

There's very little data on here, but a lot of copy pasta from twitter. I see a lot of people getting very excited about this copy pasta but they're not admitting that they're being bathtub admirals - instead they get extremely defensive when their game playing is challenged. I absolutely think the "Putin is an idiot" theme is being pushed as part of a propaganda drive and although I also take heart from the farmers stealing tanks and civilians showing immense bravery I suspect this isn't going to mean Russia gets pushed back in a matter of weeks because they run out of young people, or fuel, or rations, or tyres, or trucks or whatever is racing through the twittersphere this morning.

In terms of evidence it looks very much to me like Russia is continually and steadily advancing. In terms of the detail as to how they'll hold this territory I have literally no idea how to tell other than to wait and see. I don't share the over-confidence of some here that they understand what's going on and I note that when I call this out I'm subjected to vitriol rather than evidence. You're right, this is very much like dealing with the instant epidemiologists during lockdown, but in even poorer taste.

The characterisation of the prevailing views on here as we think Putin is an idiot (rather than a monster) or that the Russians will be pushed back in a matter of weeks is such a massive strawman that it has undergone gravitational collapse and ripped a hole in the fabric of space time

[headshot]

I wonder if this is part of Putin’s plan too?

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... raine-flag

[Stranger Mouse]

I wonder if this is part of Putin’s plan too?

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... raine-flag

It seems a bit of a jump to assume that means solidarity with Ukraine.

[jimbob]

People think you are trolling because you want answers to military questions, but you delight in your ignorance of the very subject area that may provide those answers. Any amateur observer can be dismissed as either some credulous adolescent loser and any professional analyst is someone pushing a militaristic Western agenda. It's a bit like the anti-lockdowners who claimed they wanted to know why the lockdown couldn't end, but instead of trying to understand all that nerdy adolescent science stuff they preferred the idea that it was all about Big Pharma and the secret motivations of nanny-state academics and doctors. So the same approach is required: state what you actually want to know and whether there is any realistic evidence that would actually convince you. Or do you just want to say who knows, nothing can be determined until Putin dies or the archives are declassified in 50 years time?

Well put

[headshot]

I wonder if this is part of Putin’s plan too?

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... raine-flag

It seems a bit of a jump to assume that means solidarity with Ukraine.

When the cosmonauts were able to talk to family back on Earth, Artemyev was asked about the suits. He said every crew chose their own.

“It became our turn to pick a colour. But, in fact, we had accumulated a lot of yellow material so we needed to use it,” he said. “So that’s why we had to wear yellow.”

In other news, Conservative politicians wear blue rosettes because of an excess of similar coloured satin.

[plodder]

The characterisation of the prevailing views on here as we think Putin is an idiot (rather than a monster) or that the Russians will be pushed back in a matter of weeks is such a massive strawman that it has undergone gravitational collapse and ripped a hole in the fabric of space time

Let me be clear. People here think Russia has made an almighty mess of the invasion. This is not even close to a mischaracterisation, it’s exactly what they’re saying. And they are interlacing it with high-tempo breathless tech-drivel. And if you’re daft enough to confuse that with “analysis” then fair enough.

[Pishwish]

We know that : military analysis isn't science. But people do study it and their expertise should be listened to. Some of these people write papers and put these links in tweets.

Yes there is propaganda, yes there is information asymmetry, yes there is a bias toward what happens in the present and what has the engaging story. We know this; plodder acts as if he is the only one who sees this.

This is a forum. People discuss stuff. Most people discussing covid here weren't epidemiologists, but found ones (often on twitter). Noone demanded we cease our armchair covid takes, because knowing something about the science helps ordinary people counter harmful antiscience narratives. Knowing something about wars and weapons can make ordinary people less susceptible to propaganda or stock ideological catchphrases.

Looking at a map and taking a long term view is very sensible (short-term crises, whether they be supply lines or covid parties in Downing Street, may blow over in a couple of weeks). And experts might not have enough information to make the right assessments; for example Ukraine's army may be on the verge of collapse. Russia also has form on winning wars after a long series of poorly fought battles. But pretending that a near disaster (Dunkirk, Pearl Harbour, a sitting duck convoy) was not a big deal because the army/ships/vehicles were rescued/refloated/redeployed is stupid. As is failing to listen to what the experts are saying: that Russia does not have the manpower, domestic production or equipment to pursue what is quickly becoming a sluggish war of attrition.