The Invasion of Ukraine

[Bird on a Fire]

Speculation about Ukraine counter attacks are intriguing.

They might be if you told us where to find them.

Absolutely not. We mustn't do this.

If we all look at the same things we'll just reinforce each other. All it'll become is "yes I've seen that too". One piece of info will appear to be many.

It's a common pitfall in analysis.

Let's look with more diversity.

In this light, what's your take on Zelensky's recent changes to Ukrainian television?

[EACLucifer]

Speculation about Ukraine counter attacks are intriguing.

There's been some small scale counterattacks over the last few days, including recapturing some ground between Mykolaiv and Kherson, and in the last couple of days the recapture of Makariv, west of Kyiv. The Russian advance against Kyiv to the west of the reservoir is very long and very thin and potentially vulnerable to attacks on it flank, especially given how much land just west of the reservoir is now flooded and impassable. A counterattack that could secure and hold a position across the Russian line of supply would reduce the ability of the Russians to shell Kyiv, and make their advanced positions untenable.

HOWEVER we have very little evidence so far. That doesn't mean it hasn't happened - the news of counterattacks around Mykolaiv came out a day or two after they actually happened - but it would be quite a difficult thing to do, and would force the Russians to respond. So far, the evidence is very patchy, some footage of Ukraine-supporting Chechens in combat, some footage of heavy artillery firing in what looks to be the vicinity of Kyiv, the recapture of Makariv...too early to call, basically, but if it does happen it could be a very big deal.

The Yom Kippur war ended in the south when an Egyptian army was encircled on the wrong side of the Suez canal.

[jimbob]

An uncanny youtube monologue from Russian MP Alexander Nevzorov from 2021 on the (then) future invasion of the Ukraine. He thinks it will destroy the Russian Federation, he rips into the Russian military and government, highlighting their long established corruption and their incompetence. He says it will end with Putin calling Biden "asking to send the US Marines to protect Moscow".

How kosher is that? I can't see anything before Feb24th on that.

I do however see that it is inline with his previous assessments.

[Bird on a Fire]

An uncanny youtube monologue from Russian MP Alexander Nevzorov from 2021 on the (then) future invasion of the Ukraine. He thinks it will destroy the Russian Federation, he rips into the Russian military and government, highlighting their long established corruption and their incompetence. He says it will end with Putin calling Biden "asking to send the US Marines to protect Moscow".

How kosher is that? I can't see anything before Feb24th on that.

I do however see that it is inline with his previous assessments.

I've also seen this reported on Reddit - supposedly this is the original video https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=165&v=Ia8 ... e=youtu.be with the Feb 24 version just having the translation added.

I guess a side-by-side playback would confirm. Plus a verification of the translation.

[Bird on a Fire]

FWIW I've seen quite a few articles and videos from Ukrayinska Pravda posted on reddit which generally seem to fail the "independent verification" step. Ukrainian media is playing the propaganda game well.

Which makes me curious about Zelensky's move to unite all Ukrainian TV under a single government-controlled platform:

LVIV, Ukraine, March 20 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a decree that combines all national TV channels into one platform, citing the importance of a "unified information policy" under martial law, his office said in a statement on Sunday.

Ukrainian privately owned media channels have hitherto continued to operate since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. The decree announcement, made on the presidential website, did not specify how quickly the new measure would come into force.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ci ... 022-03-20/

Had there been problems with private media generally (other than pro-Russian outlets which could presumably be shut down anyway (?))? I know war is a serious business and government control of information is a useful weapon, but centralising control of the media makes me uncomfortable both generally, and specifically in a corrupt and undemocratic regime.

[bjn]

My Russian is non existent, but various commenters say the translation is accurate and none say it’s fiction.

[monkey]

FWIW I've seen quite a few articles and videos from Ukrayinska Pravda posted on reddit which generally seem to fail the "independent verification" step. Ukrainian media is playing the propaganda game well.

Which makes me curious about Zelensky's move to unite all Ukrainian TV under a single government-controlled platform:

LVIV, Ukraine, March 20 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a decree that combines all national TV channels into one platform, citing the importance of a "unified information policy" under martial law, his office said in a statement on Sunday.

Ukrainian privately owned media channels have hitherto continued to operate since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. The decree announcement, made on the presidential website, did not specify how quickly the new measure would come into force.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ci ... 022-03-20/

Had there been problems with private media generally (other than pro-Russian outlets which could presumably be shut down anyway (?))? I know war is a serious business and government control of information is a useful weapon, but centralising control of the media makes me uncomfortable both generally, and specifically in a corrupt and undemocratic regime.

It's something I would expect pretty much every country to do if they were involved in an existential fight, I don't think Ukraine is special in that regard. Even now in peace time the UK Government can issue D notices, which is how the press was controlled during the World Wars*. These aren't actually enforceable, but they are a very clear signal about what the Government would like you not to publish/broadcast, so still act as control, it just relies on the press being compliant.

But you are correct that it's more worrying if a country is less democratic and/or corrupt. Just 'cos you have to wonder about what happens when they're supposed to give it up after the guns stop firing. Not sure if Ukraine is one to worry about, it was getting better at That Sort of Thing up till now.


*I'm sure everyone here knows George Orwell worked for the Ministry of Information.

[Bird on a Fire]

I suppose it depends what kind of stuff they're restricting. If it's just "DON'T broadcast secret plans, DO say nice things about Ukraine and its people" then that makes total sense.

But AFAICT this isn't about restricting certain topics but rather about subsuming all independent TV under state control. Which seems rather drastic, so presumably they're reacting to something bad I haven't heard about.

[dyqik]

Speculation about Ukraine counter attacks are intriguing.

They might be if you told us where to find them.

Absolutely not. We mustn't do this.

If we all look at the same things we'll just reinforce each other. All it'll become is "yes I've seen that too". One piece of info will appear to be many.

It's a common pitfall in analysis.

Let's look with more diversity.

If you don't tell us what you're looking at, you won't get anyone else's opinion on it, and you'll be stuck in an echo chamber of one.

[shpalman]

And if we find the same thing as you but don't know it's the same thing, we'll count it twice. Or if we find a different thing but think it's the same we'll count it once. Whatever. Missing information leads to there being less information.

[Brightonian]

Thread on many Russian soldiers being not actually Russian but poor Kazakhs etc.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 9866394625

[EACLucifer]

Regarding the cutting of supply lines, there's another issue I hadn't considered last night, mostly because I was tired.

When a lot of us see claims of cutting supply lines, we think "ah, encirclement". That's not necessarily true. An encirclement does mean the cutting of all lines of supply, but it's also possible it referred to cutting a/the route they were using for supply, but not all possible routes. It still complicates the supply situation, but not to the same degree as encirclement. The units around Hostomel have three main roads to supply them. Liberating Makariv cut one. Operations around Borodianka would cut another. To cut all three, Ukraine would need to establish a presence around Ivankiv.

We see similar confusing around things like "a detachment from a regiment was destroyed" becoming "a regiment was destroyed" or "a patrol boat was hit and damaged" becoming "a patrol boat was destroyed"

[lpm]

Missing information leads to there being less information.

Speculation is not information. It isn't even data.

[Woodchopper]

Regarding the cutting of supply lines, there's another issue I hadn't considered last night, mostly because I was tired.

When a lot of us see claims of cutting supply lines, we think "ah, encirclement". That's not necessarily true. An encirclement does mean the cutting of all lines of supply, but it's also possible it referred to cutting a/the route they were using for supply, but not all possible routes. It still complicates the supply situation, but not to the same degree as encirclement. The units around Hostomel have three main roads to supply them. Liberating Makariv cut one. Operations around Borodianka would cut another. To cut all three, Ukraine would need to establish a presence around Ivankiv.

We see similar confusing around things like "a detachment from a regiment was destroyed" becoming "a regiment was destroyed" or "a patrol boat was hit and damaged" becoming "a patrol boat was destroyed"

Yes, I agree. Here we come back to problems with numbers of personnel etc. It would take a lot of soldiers and equipment to completely encircle large Russian units (to the extent that they can't get out). Probably more than the Ukrainians can commit right now. But interrupting supply lines is still important. Russian units that are low on fuel or ammunition aren't going to be effective at attacking. If they are low on food and other supplies then the troops will get more demoralized.

[Woodchopper]

Thanks very much for pulling all these together, Woodchopper. It certainly seems like there have been many sources of failure, and that the Russian invasion is doing less well than a lot of us in the west feared.

Whether or not that's good news, I suppose, will depend on what Putin wanted to get out of the invasion and what he might hope to come away with now. Given Russia's inability to win an attritional war they'll presumably either escalate or seek a face-saving way to de-escalate.

I fear that the war of attrition could carry on, possibly for years. I have difficulty imagining a peace agreement that wouldn't be viewed as a humiliation by one or other side. The Russian leadership could assume that they could win eventually. Russia has far more resources to expend and the war is destroying Ukraine (but not Russia). The Ukrainian leadership could assume that they can win due to their population having far greater motivation to accept hardship, the Russian economy being trashed by sanctions, and aid from foreign countries.

My own Twitter has been full of RTs of similar takes, along with what Philipps O'Brien calls "war p.rn". The take - Putin done goofed - seems pretty reasonable based on what we know. But I do confess to being a bit uncomfortable at the quantity of war footage ordinary non-experts are sharing. It's clearly a good thing for journalists and analysts and OSINT types etc. to be able to view and verify primary sources. But a timeline that's just all sorts of random folk saying vague things like "You must watch this" followed by some POWs crying or a tank exploding or whatever gives me the heebie-jeebies.

Yes, I'm very much in two minds about this.

I've done my best to avoid all the discussion on Reddit, and as I think I've mentioned before I'm careful with who I follow and interact with on Twitter. There is definitely a Something Awful tendency on the internet for people to see actual war as entertainment. I find that distasteful. Also, unless someone is an actual war crimes or conflict researcher, there is little analytical benefit from looking at a video of a destroyed town or an exploding tank. (Videos of Ukrainian farmers towing abandoned Russian tanks do though tell us something about the state of the invaders and invaded).

But as lpm pointed out powerful images help people to understand the brutality of what's going on. I've often read claims that one of the most important photographs of the 20th Century is of a severely injured naked girl fleeing a village whose inhabitants are being burnt to death by a US air strike.

Ultimately it seems to come down to the state of mind of the person viewing and sharing films or images. Do they view it as horrific and want it to stop, or do they think its cool.

So, while I think he posted in an unnecessarily wind-uppy way, I do share some of plodder's uncomfortableness with some of the online discussion of the invasion. In the context of level-headed analysis, understanding eg missile capabilities and drone tactics etc can be useful detail; without that context, it can look a bit prurient.

I think its useful in some cases. For example, people here should be worried about Russian threats to attack supplies being transported to Ukraine. But a key consideration is whether this is a realistic threat or empty bluster, and an important part of that calculation is whether the Russian armed forces have the capability to identify and attack the vehicles transporting supplies.

But on the other hand, needless use of technical terms can alienate an audience. If it isn't relevant it could come off like someone discussing birdwatching with normal people and saying that they've seen Cyanistes caeruleus in their garden.

And I suspect that one of the causes of miscommunication is that many people are getting 99% of their worldview-shaping coverage from analysts on twitter, and then occasionally popping in here to comment on something-or-other they particularly want to discuss. For those of us who wouldn't even know where to start looking for Unbiased War Experts in the twattersphere this kind of digest is pretty useful, or at least a brief explanation of if/how what's being discussed actually matters to the big picture.

I agree. As we saw with the Covid threads, in fast moving crisis the most relevant information and analysis often gets posted on twitter first, and later by other means. Peer reviewed articles will be written about the first weeks of the war in Ukraine but they'll take months or years to be published. However, similar to virology, its very difficult for people to separate actual expertise from b.llsh.t. Popularity of a tweet or a tweeter definitely isn't a good measure.

[Woodchopper]

Letter in the FT:

The recent article by Maria Stepanova “The war of Putin’s imagination” (Life & Arts, FT Weekend, March 19) was exemplary. However, one jarring note was the unfounded notion that no one expected this aggression from the Kremlin.

I served as the UK’s defence attaché in Moscow for five years, 2011-2016, during which time this long, dark march to war was obvious, the path to conflict lit by the many pronouncements emanating from the dark red walls of Vladimir Putin’s palace.

We reported the inevitability of conflict in detail, regularly and with the despair of Cassandra. One of the earliest reports opened with a line from Sherlock Holmes, whose statue stands outside the British Embassy wall: “There’s an east wind coming all the same, such a wind as never blew on England yet. It will be cold and bitter, Watson, and a good many of us may wither before its blast.”

The evidence of Putin’s chosen path was never concealed. His many declarations were meant to be heard and understood: the colossal rearmament programme, the demand for more complex, more lethal weaponry; the militarisation of society; the distortion and seizure of the popular narrative; domination of education, the media and the courts to exclude contrasting views and, ultimately, the alienation and destruction of those among the Russian people who understood the folly of his declared ambition.

The list is remorseless, the consequences could not be ignored. But they were.

It was not until I returned to the UK on the eve of our withdrawal from the EU, a manoeuvre which greatly emboldened those in Moscow, that I understood how our society had changed in the years I was serving overseas.

All was subjugated to the City, all served the interests of our lucrative status as a safe haven for corrupt, and corrupting, wealth. The values we were demanding of other nations had long since faded from our own actions.

I despair at the decisions Putin has taken, but even more at the prospect of finding credible leadership at home in the UK among those who have compromised so long with his regime and the wealth it offered.

https://www.ft.com/content/857d2ccd-285 ... e04b42ba93

[EACLucifer]

McKenzie Intelligence Services, working for the BBC, identified the munition used to attack the Drama Theatre in Mariupol

The Russians used a half tonne laser-guided bomb. They are so short on guided weapons they are using unguided weapons on important military targets, but a theatre used as a shelter was worth expending such a munition. The theatre stood on its own, with no buildings nearby. The word "children" was written clearly on both sides, to be visible not just in the air, but to satellites. I've pointed out before, wen Hamas used one against a schoolbus, that to use a laser guided munition someone has to point a laser at the target, often referred to as "painting" it, until the munition hits. Someone deliberately guided that bomb onto a civilian building clearly labelled as a shelter for children.

[EACLucifer]

Kremlin watchers are noting that Shoigu seems to be missing. Not seen in a couple of weeks, referenced a bit under a week ago, nothing since.

[Allo V Psycho]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/statu ... 1726877698
And the chief of the general staff. Those two, apparently, hold the nuclear suitcases.

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/statu ... 1726877698
And the chief of the general staff. Those two, apparently, hold the nuclear suitcases.

From a book Dad bought in the US on a working holiday in 1962. Khrushchev's Coloring Book - your first Red Reader


20220321_214408 by jimmypippa, on Flickr


See the six members of the Politburo
They have all had heart attacks
Spatter the wall red

[bjn]

Letter in the FT:

The recent article by Maria Stepanova “The war of Putin’s imagination” (Life & Arts, FT Weekend, March 19) was exemplary. However, one jarring note was the unfounded notion that no one expected this aggression from the Kremlin.

I served as the UK’s defence attaché in Moscow for five years, 2011-2016, during which time this long, dark march to war was obvious, the path to conflict lit by the many pronouncements emanating from the dark red walls of Vladimir Putin’s palace.

We reported the inevitability of conflict in detail, regularly and with the despair of Cassandra. One of the earliest reports opened with a line from Sherlock Holmes, whose statue stands outside the British Embassy wall: “There’s an east wind coming all the same, such a wind as never blew on England yet. It will be cold and bitter, Watson, and a good many of us may wither before its blast.”

The evidence of Putin’s chosen path was never concealed. His many declarations were meant to be heard and understood: the colossal rearmament programme, the demand for more complex, more lethal weaponry; the militarisation of society; the distortion and seizure of the popular narrative; domination of education, the media and the courts to exclude contrasting views and, ultimately, the alienation and destruction of those among the Russian people who understood the folly of his declared ambition.

The list is remorseless, the consequences could not be ignored. But they were.

It was not until I returned to the UK on the eve of our withdrawal from the EU, a manoeuvre which greatly emboldened those in Moscow, that I understood how our society had changed in the years I was serving overseas.

All was subjugated to the City, all served the interests of our lucrative status as a safe haven for corrupt, and corrupting, wealth. The values we were demanding of other nations had long since faded from our own actions.

I despair at the decisions Putin has taken, but even more at the prospect of finding credible leadership at home in the UK among those who have compromised so long with his regime and the wealth it offered.

https://www.ft.com/content/857d2ccd-285 ... e04b42ba93

I read that earlier today. The guy is an ex Air Commodore, not some lefty woke snowflake moaning mini*.

*Which I'm personally proud to be.

[EACLucifer]

NATO estimate Russian deaths as 7000-15000 and total personnel losses at 30000-40000

I'm finding it difficult to get across just how extreme these losses are. The invasion's been going on about four weeks. British losses in WW2 were in the realm of twelve hunded a week. American losses in that same conflict just over two thousand a week for the time they were involved. In Vietnam, America lost an average of just over a hundred a week killed. Russia's estimated losses are 1750-3500 a week.

In terms of all losses - killed, wounded, missing (including deserters) and captured it's in the region of a fifth or a sixth of the initial invading force.

Material losses are also extreme, and not sustainable in the long run, especially if the claims that Uralvagonzavod has stopped production are true.

[jimbob]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... on-ukraine

[Stranger Mouse]

Well Russian TV is insane. The nuclear sabre rattling is quite unnerving.

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/stat ... 92322?s=21

[EACLucifer]

Well Russian TV is insane. The nuclear sabre rattling is quite unnerving.

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/stat ... 92322?s=21

If it's any comfort, Russian TV is always insane, and the nuclear sabre rattling isn't particularly new.

In other news, it's being widely circulated that an aggrieved Russian tank driver ran over his colonel after their unit suffered heavy losses.