The Invasion of Ukraine

[Woodchopper]

I've just moved some personally abusive material and replies over to the Pit. This part of the forum is supposed to be for discussion on "serious topics, for serious people". So lets keep it that way.

[jimbob]

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... -traitors/

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Thursday that two of his country’s top security officials had been dismissed from their roles as generals for being “traitors.”

“Regarding antiheroes. Now, I do not have time to deal with all the traitors. But gradually they will all be punished,” Zelensky said in a speech.

“That is why the ex-chief of the Main Department of Internal Security of the Security Service of Ukraine Naumov Andriy Olehovych and the former head of the Office of the Security Service of Ukraine in the Kherson region Kryvoruchko Serhiy Oleksandrovych are no longer generals,” he said.

[Woodchopper]

Some war p.rn of the Belgorod attack. Not too explicit.

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1509805256670068736

It may be that the biggest effect will be that Russia moves air defence units out of Ukraine to protect areas inside its borders. Which may end up shooting down Russian aircraft as they don't seem to be good at coordinating.

It is genuinely very hard to stop an attack like this, especially with helicopters. Flying very low and using the terrain can enable aircraft to sneak under ground based radar, and while it can be done with fixed wing aircraft - the few bits of footage of Ukrainian MiG 29s are when they are flying shockingly low - helicopters are slower and more agile, and can stay even lower to the ground. That takes large radar based air defence systems almost completely out of the question.

Then there's SHORADS and MANPADS, but the problem there is coordination and friendly fire, and - the clue's in the name - short range, meaning to cover a large section of front loads of them are needed, or they have to be placed at potential targets in advance of any attack. The friendly fire issue is huge, because both sides use the same models of helicopter - in this case Mi24 "Hind"s. Trying to pick out the markings at night while something whizzes past at up to two hundred miles an hour is impossible, even picking out the model of helicopter would be difficult. Russia would have to either abandon its own helicopter operations, or warn all its SHORADS/MANPADS operators when their helicopters are coming through, and that means reliable radios, not ones that can be hijacked with heavy metal or angry Ukrainians telling you you are a used condom.

Airborne radars offer another option, but they have to be capable of picking the helicopter out from the clutter of the terrain itself, which is quite challenger, and even if the helicopter can be detected, good lookdown/shootdown radar and missiles are needed. Exercises have shown that if fighter jets try and get in close with helicopters, the helicopters actually have the advantage - they have extreme agility and flexibly mounted cannon, and are usually capable of carrying short range AAMs.

I agree.

But on the other hand this is a humiliation for Russia. As far as I know its the first time that the home territory of a leading power has been successfully attacked by another state's armed forces since the 1940s. I assume that whoever was in charge of air defences in the region has been severely reprimanded. Everyone else in a similar position will now be trying to ensure that they aren't next (or if they were they did everything they could).

[shpalman]

It's amazing war p.rn. Looks like the 3rd out of 4 missiles blew the thing. Then the two helicopters getting the f.ck out of there lower than some of the rooftops.

Are we really sure this "alleged attack" took place and wasn't just "Russian negligence" or maybe I don't know some other country which Russian has been pounding into the dust for a month successfully defending itself?

The alleged strikes do not create "comfortable conditions" for peace talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

Well, no, not when what the Kremlin has in mind for nice comfortable "peace talks" would be Ukraine agreeing to surrender and let Russia do whatever it wanted.

[Woodchopper]

It's amazing war p.rn. Looks like the 3rd out of 4 missiles blew the thing. Then the two helicopters getting the f.ck out of there lower than some of the rooftops.

Are we really sure this "alleged attack" took place and wasn't just "Russian negligence" or maybe I don't know some other country which Russian has been pounding into the dust for a month successfully defending itself?

The alleged strikes do not create "comfortable conditions" for peace talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

Well, no, not when what the Kremlin has in mind for nice comfortable "peace talks" would be Ukraine agreeing to surrender and let Russia do whatever it wanted.

As mentioned above, the Russian leadership should view what happened as a symbolic disaster. I doubt that they'd do that to get a pretext to walk out of the peace talks. Which they can do anyway.

[WFJ]

It's amazing war p.rn. Looks like the 3rd out of 4 missiles blew the thing. Then the two helicopters getting the f.ck out of there lower than some of the rooftops.

Are we really sure this "alleged attack" took place and wasn't just "Russian negligence" or maybe I don't know some other country which Russian has been pounding into the dust for a month successfully defending itself?

The alleged strikes do not create "comfortable conditions" for peace talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

Well, no, not when what the Kremlin has in mind for nice comfortable "peace talks" would be Ukraine agreeing to surrender and let Russia do whatever it wanted.

As mentioned above, the Russian leadership should view what happened as a symbolic disaster. I doubt that they'd do that to get a pretext to walk out of the peace talks. Which they can do anyway.

I would imagine the only reason Russia would do it would be as a pretext for escalation. Unless the nukes start flying over the weekend, I would guess we can be pretty confident it was the Ukrainians.

[lpm]

This can't be real, surely. It's 1 April. Ukrainian curling.

I know you need a heavy vehicle to set them off, but what's the point of using them if some private can jump out and just shove them out the way?

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... 3459128325

[shpalman]

It's amazing war p.rn. Looks like the 3rd out of 4 missiles blew the thing. Then the two helicopters getting the f.ck out of there lower than some of the rooftops.

Are we really sure this "alleged attack" took place and wasn't just "Russian negligence" or maybe I don't know some other country which Russian has been pounding into the dust for a month successfully defending itself?

The alleged strikes do not create "comfortable conditions" for peace talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says

Well, no, not when what the Kremlin has in mind for nice comfortable "peace talks" would be Ukraine agreeing to surrender and let Russia do whatever it wanted.

As mentioned above, the Russian leadership should view what happened as a symbolic disaster. I doubt that they'd do that to get a pretext to walk out of the peace talks. Which they can do anyway.

My point is that while we're watching videos from multiple angles of helicopters launching rockets at a Russian fuel/oil depot which then explodes and burns, the Guardian and the BBC are like wait we can't be sure that actually happened because nobody officially told us that it did.

[Woodchopper]

Are we really sure this "alleged attack" took place and wasn't just "Russian negligence" or maybe I don't know some other country which Russian has been pounding into the dust for a month successfully defending itself?



Well, no, not when what the Kremlin has in mind for nice comfortable "peace talks" would be Ukraine agreeing to surrender and let Russia do whatever it wanted.

As mentioned above, the Russian leadership should view what happened as a symbolic disaster. I doubt that they'd do that to get a pretext to walk out of the peace talks. Which they can do anyway.

I would imagine the only reason Russia would do it would be as a pretext for escalation. Unless the nukes start flying over the weekend, I would guess we can be pretty confident it was the Ukrainians.

Yes, short of nuclear weapons I can't see that they could escalate to anything they haven't done already.

A helicopter attack on a Russian fuel depot might have made sense as a false flag operation on 23 February. But it seems pointless now.

[Woodchopper]

My point is that while we're watching videos from multiple angles of helicopters launching rockets at a Russian fuel/oil depot which then explodes and burns, the Guardian and the BBC are like wait we can't be sure that actually happened because nobody officially told us that it did.

Ah OK.

[Woodchopper]

This can't be real, surely. It's 1 April. Ukrainian curling.

I know you need a heavy vehicle to set them off, but what's the point of using them if some private can jump out and just shove them out the way?

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... 3459128325

Could be useful if someone wanted to ambush the stationary vehicles. But, yes, without that it seems more like some Russian soldier was ordered to mine the road. So they did and left as quickly as they could.

[lpm]

Some Russian soldier, hands in pockets and smoking a fag, shoves out a load of mines.

Some Ukrainian soldier, hands in pockets and smoking a fag, kicks the mines to the side of the road.

Presumably these make good raw material for IEDs? If Russia has done the same around Mariupol then the mines could soon be coming back their way from the local insurgents.

[Woodchopper]

Some Russian soldier, hands in pockets and smoking a fag, shoves out a load of mines.

Some Ukrainian soldier, hands in pockets and smoking a fag, kicks the mines to the side of the road.

Presumably these make good raw material for IEDs? If Russia has done the same around Mariupol then the mines could soon be coming back their way from the local insurgents.

Yes, just more gifts to the Ukrainians.

[TopBadger]

AIUI AT mines are supposed to be buried... so the driver can't see them and therefore unwittingly drives over them.

Obviously that's pretty difficult to do on a metaled road without proper equipment. I can well imagine pissed off Russian soldiers being quite good at malicious compliance.

"Yes Sir, we mined the approach road"

[sTeamTraen]

I know you need a heavy vehicle to set them off, but what's the point of using them if some private can jump out and just shove them out the way?

1. As the private, you don't know if there may be snipers lurking for just such an opportunity. Although of course if you think that there might be ATGM operators lurking instead, you might want to be outside the vee-hickel.

2. Apparently there are anti-tank mines that have anti-tampering mechanisms. Presumably these Ukrainians have worked out that these were not that type. Or they don't give a f.ck. Or maybe Ukraine placed the mines but the Russians took another route.

Anyway, I hope some poor trucker doesn't feel the need to pull off onto the hard shoulder.

[Herainestold]

We don't want Russia completely crippled, we want them to go home, get rid of Putin and his cronies, set up a better system and economically develop into a beautiful, Green country with happy, well-fed people in it. It totally could. Without Putin and his tosser mates.

Russia is a huge country with a lot of resources. Properly exploited and as part of the global economy Russia should be one of the worlds richest nations. Part of the problem is its vast size, it makes it difficult to connect the various regions. The other problem is it still suffering the effects of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The people were robbed of their rightful share of the economy by the oligarchs who enabled Putin.If Russia had been allowed to to keep and develop its socialist economy with out the need for vast amounts of military spending to counter NATO, it would be a far better place today.

If Russia could replace Putin and his tosser mates, and revert to an economy that enriched the average person instead of the elite,everybody would be better off. Sadly, that is unlikely to happen.

[bjn]

We don't want Russia completely crippled, we want them to go home, get rid of Putin and his cronies, set up a better system and economically develop into a beautiful, Green country with happy, well-fed people in it. It totally could. Without Putin and his tosser mates.

Russia is a huge country with a lot of resources. Properly exploited and as part of the global economy Russia should be one of the worlds richest nations. Part of the problem is its vast size, it makes it difficult to connect the various regions. The other problem is it still suffering the effects of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The people were robbed of their rightful share of the economy by the oligarchs who enabled Putin.If Russia had been allowed to to keep and develop its socialist economy with out the need for vast amounts of military spending to counter NATO, it would be a far better place today.

If Russia could replace Putin and his tosser mates, and revert to an economy that enriched the average person instead of the elite,everybody would be better off. Sadly, that is unlikely to happen.

You almost got it right, but your inner Tankie can't be repressed. NATO is a defensive alliance, which nations are begging to join. Mainly because a certain nation to NATO"s East has a history of murdering Chechens, Syrians and Georgians along with Ukrainians. Before that, in a different guise, it was fond of murdering Hungarians and Czechs. Plus murdering its own people.

[shpalman]

My point is that while we're watching videos from multiple angles of helicopters launching rockets at a Russian fuel/oil depot which then explodes and burns, the Guardian and the BBC are like wait we can't be sure that actually happened because nobody officially told us that it did.

Ah OK.

Ukraine says it wasn't them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Herainestold]

My point is that while we're watching videos from multiple angles of helicopters launching rockets at a Russian fuel/oil depot which then explodes and burns, the Guardian and the BBC are like wait we can't be sure that actually happened because nobody officially told us that it did.

Ah OK.

Ukraine says it wasn't them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Weird.

[Woodchopper]

My point is that while we're watching videos from multiple angles of helicopters launching rockets at a Russian fuel/oil depot which then explodes and burns, the Guardian and the BBC are like wait we can't be sure that actually happened because nobody officially told us that it did.

Ah OK.

Ukraine says it wasn't them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Odd. Maybe the Russians blew it up by accident.

[dyqik]

Ah OK.

Ukraine says it wasn't them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Odd. Maybe the Russians blew it up by accident.

Or deliberately to avoid being repositioned to the south east.

Or maybe Belarus did it.

[EACLucifer]

Ah OK.

Ukraine says it wasn't them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Odd. Maybe the Russians blew it up by accident.

Ukraine has struck inside Russia before - Tochka-U strikes on an airbase, and drone attacks on a fuel train are the ones I am aware of. They may also be in a delicate position diplomatically, some countries from whom they need aid - or who could hinder aid from others - may be unhappy with the idea it may be used to attack targets within Russia, even completely legit military targets.

It isn't an accident. Multiple bits of footage from multiple angles show there were helicopters, and that the helicopters fired rockets. It's categorically a helicopter attack, so then who? Russia just does not make sense. Russian forces would not be hitting it by accident, not that accurately. If they were going to do a false-flag attack - which they might - it would either target something that would cause outrage, so something explicitly civilian, or something that did not cost them anything, so not a fuel depot 60km from their forces trying to maintain a siege.

As for Russian outrage over it, rather than assume the attack was a Russian stunt, it's likely the Russians entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everybody else and nobody was going to bomb them.

[jimbob]

Ukraine says it wasn't them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Odd. Maybe the Russians blew it up by accident.

Ukraine has struck inside Russia before - Tochka-U strikes on an airbase, and drone attacks on a fuel train are the ones I am aware of. They may also be in a delicate position diplomatically, some countries from whom they need aid - or who could hinder aid from others - may be unhappy with the idea it may be used to attack targets within Russia, even completely legit military targets.

It isn't an accident. Multiple bits of footage from multiple angles show there were helicopters, and that the helicopters fired rockets. It's categorically a helicopter attack, so then who? Russia just does not make sense. Russian forces would not be hitting it by accident, not that accurately. If they were going to do a false-flag attack - which they might - it would either target something that would cause outrage, so something explicitly civilian, or something that did not cost them anything, so not a fuel depot 60km from their forces trying to maintain a siege.

As for Russian outrage over it, rather than assume the attack was a Russian stunt, it's likely the Russians entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everybody else and nobody was going to bomb them.

Ukraine hasn't denied it as far as I know, just said they're investigating. It *might* even be a freelance raid of opportunity.

Letting Russia make all the claims is probably smart from a propaganda perspective.

[bjn]

Germany is handing over 56 PbV-501 IFVs to Ukraine. There are Soviet BMP-1s that were uprated by BAE a while back. Quite a change for the Germans from handing over a few helmets a month ago.

[Millennie Al]

This can't be real, surely. It's 1 April. Ukrainian curling.

I know you need a heavy vehicle to set them off, but what's the point of using them if some private can jump out and just shove them out the way?

Like that - there's no point. You're supposed to bury them. And mix in a few anti-personnel mines with them so anyone trying to find them riskd being blown up themselves. If you leave them out in plain sight, they're too easy to identify and neutralise.