The Invasion of Ukraine

[EACLucifer]

In whatever conflict there is always a chance of friendly fire casualties and or civilian targets being hit by stray fire. I know whenever the Russians hit a hospital people always pop up and draw and comparison with what US and UK forces have done in Iraq. Is there any source which gives a fair comparison of the real world frequency of these type of events and the likelihood that they are indeed accidental rather than deliberate?

Not that I'm aware of, but in general, one of the main problems with attacks by UK US and so on is faulty intelligence meaning the wrong thing is accurately hit with a precision munition, as happened in the awful strike that killed a number of civilians during the evacuation from Afghanistan.

The Russians might have tried to argue that they were aiming at what they thought was a military target - and in some situations railway infrastructure can be - but the fact that they immediately went to try and blame Ukraine instead suggests that it probably wasn't a legit attack gone wrong. Sometimes it's more obvious - the bomb that hit the Drama Theatre in Mariupol was laser guided. That meant someone had to be pointing a targetting laser at it. The word "children" was written in Russian in letters large enough to be easily visible from space on both sides of that building, meaning whoever directed that bomb knew what they were aiming at.

[jimbob]

Russian state media is now trying to blame the Ukrainians, yet not long ago they were boasting of carrying out attacks that meet this description, and it looks like there's footage of the launch from inside occupied Donbass.

From ISF:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/fo ... st13778408
Russian state media was denying the attack before Ukraine reported it. (links to Reddit articles)

[jimbob]

Russian state media is now trying to blame the Ukrainians, yet not long ago they were boasting of carrying out attacks that meet this description, and it looks like there's footage of the launch from inside occupied Donbass.

From ISF:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/fo ... st13778408
Russian state media was denying the attack before Ukraine reported it. (links to Reddit articles)

Shades of MH17 where they reported shooting down a Ukrainian cargo plane before the denials started

[jimbob]

https://www.rte.ie/news/2022/0408/12911 ... taoiseach/

Finland's government websites hit by cyber attack when Zelensky was addressing them, and Russian warplanes violated Finnish airspace

[EACLucifer]

https://www.rte.ie/news/2022/0408/12911 ... taoiseach/

Finland's government websites hit by cyber attack when Zelensky was addressing them, and Russian warplanes violated Finnish airspace

Next time they try that against Sweden or Finland, they should have a plane shot down.



Turkey did, and it hardly started WWIII

[jimbob]

https://www.rte.ie/news/2022/0408/12911 ... taoiseach/

Finland's government websites hit by cyber attack when Zelensky was addressing them, and Russian warplanes violated Finnish airspace

Next time they try that against Sweden or Finland, they should have a plane shot down.



Turkey did, and it hardly started WWIII

That was the incident that I was thinking about

[jimbob]

Russian state media is now trying to blame the Ukrainians, yet not long ago they were boasting of carrying out attacks that meet this description, and it looks like there's footage of the launch from inside occupied Donbass.

From ISF:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/fo ... st13778408
Russian state media was denying the attack before Ukraine reported it. (links to Reddit articles)

Shades of MH17 where they reported shooting down a Ukrainian cargo plane before the denials started

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... U46WGWW7VQ

Within minutes of a missile attack that killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians waiting to evacuate from Kramatorsk railway station, pro-Russian news telegram channels reported that the strike was aimed at Ukraine fighters or hardware, according to open source intelligence and data analysts.

The posts were swiftly deleted when the horrific civilian toll became apparent.

“10 minutes ago — strikes on the Kramatorsk train station. Working against a consolidation of Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters,” reported pro-Kremlin channel Siloviki, meaning men of power. It was reposted on other pro-Kremlin channels. One of the channels that reposted it is run by Dmitry Steshin, a Komsomolkaya Pravda journalist.

Andrey Kamyzhikin, a journalist from pro-Kremlin ANNA Telegram channel whose reports often appear on Russian state television, also reported a strike on the train station. He said there were “reports that Ukrainian Forces brought military hardware” to the station, in reference to a potential Russian target. ANNA news posted the same information.

[Grumble]

https://www.rte.ie/news/2022/0408/12911 ... taoiseach/

Finland's government websites hit by cyber attack when Zelensky was addressing them, and Russian warplanes violated Finnish airspace

Next time they try that against Sweden or Finland, they should have a plane shot down.



Turkey did, and it hardly started WWIII

And to state the obvious, Turkey is a member of NATO.

[lpm]

Come on, how does the risk-reward ratio play out for this.

Risk another ramp up of tension, get one pathetic jet?

Ramp up of tension but give missiles to sink the Black Sea fleet is more like it.

[jimbob]

Come on, how does the risk-reward ratio play out for this.

Risk another ramp up of tension, get one pathetic jet?

Ramp up of tension but give missiles to sink the Black Sea fleet is more like it.

Finland is not part of NATO (yet)

I don't see why not both. Putin is pushing the boundaries but backs down when actually challenged by entities with sufficient power.

[EACLucifer]

^^ OK thanks. I had trouble imagining anything other than it getting embedded in Platform 4.

Apparently the engine section of a Tochka-U separates from the warheads a couple of thousand metres above the ground, which I hadn't actually realised earlier. Finding one near a strike is thus quite normal and to be expected.

The footage of two missiles firing on a high angle that is suspected to be the launch of the two missiles that hit the station has now been geolocated to a point in the occupied Donbass, within the Tochka-U's range of the impact.

[TimW]

Ah, but the way it separates (or something) means that you can tell from a glance at how the bits land which direction it travelled.

MOSCOW, April 8. /TASS/. Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Igor Konashenkov on Friday said an examination of the area damaged by the warhead and the position of the tail of the Tochka-U missile in Kramatorsk confirmed that it was fired from an area controlled by the armed forces of Ukraine.

"An examination of the area damaged by the warhead and the position of the tail segment of the Tochka-U missile confirm without a doubt that it was fired from an area to the southwest of Kramatorsk," he said. "According to intelligence data, one of the units of the 19th missile brigade, which is armed with Tochka-U missile systems, was located in the area of the Dobropolye settlement of the Donetsk Region 45 kilometers to the southwest of Kramatorsk at the time of the strike."

"That area is for now fully controlled by a grouping of Ukrainian forces in Donbass," he went on to say.

Konashenkov said Tochka-U tactical missiles are utilized only by Ukrainian forces.

So there.

ETA: slightly more seriously - one missile or two? Did they both hit the target?

[EACLucifer]

Ah, but the way it separates (or something) means that you can tell from a glance at how the bits land which direction it travelled.

MOSCOW, April 8. /TASS/. Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Igor Konashenkov on Friday said an examination of the area damaged by the warhead and the position of the tail of the Tochka-U missile in Kramatorsk confirmed that it was fired from an area controlled by the armed forces of Ukraine.

"An examination of the area damaged by the warhead and the position of the tail segment of the Tochka-U missile confirm without a doubt that it was fired from an area to the southwest of Kramatorsk," he said. "According to intelligence data, one of the units of the 19th missile brigade, which is armed with Tochka-U missile systems, was located in the area of the Dobropolye settlement of the Donetsk Region 45 kilometers to the southwest of Kramatorsk at the time of the strike."

"That area is for now fully controlled by a grouping of Ukrainian forces in Donbass," he went on to say.

Konashenkov said Tochka-U tactical missiles are utilized only by Ukrainian forces.

So there.

ETA: slightly more seriously - one missile or two? Did they both hit the target?

Most reports say two, and the footage of what looks to be the launch is two missiles.

One can, incidentally, tell from some missiles what direction they were fired in; this is generally true of the smaller cluster-missiles fired from MLRS, apparently it is not possible with things like short-range ballistic missiles due to the angle they come down at. I'm not an expert, though, so you'd have to ask the chaps at Bellingcat or similar.

[EACLucifer]

Boris Johnson reportedly saying "it wouldn't be appropriate" to for western allies to supply all of Ukraine's arms needs in a press conference with Scholz, disregarding Ukrainian requests for western heavy arms.

You know what else is not appropriate? Signing up to guarantee a country's security as part of a push for them to disarm, then not doing enough to guarantee their security when they are invaded.

[jimbob]

Boris Johnson reportedly saying "it wouldn't be appropriate" to for western allies to supply all of Ukraine's arms needs in a press conference with Scholz, disregarding Ukrainian requests for western heavy arms.

You know what else is not appropriate? Signing up to guarantee a country's security as part of a push for them to disarm, then not doing enough to guarantee their security when they are invaded.

Yup

[Bird on a Fire]

Der Spiegel reports German Intelligence have communications intercepts about the killings of civilians in Bucha that are detailed enough they can be linked to specific victims

Article is paywalled and in German. Are Germans really going to be ok with continuing to buy Russian gas and block arms to Ukraine?

If Europe sent one euro's worth of equipment to Ukraine for every euro sent to Russia for gas, oil and coal, Ukraine would have a very real chance of victory.

This is a really important point.

Sending military equipment and other strategic stuff like tractors is fine and interesting.

But the West is still funding Russia's crimes against humanity by paying them for oil and gas.

It seems to me that ordinary Ukrainians are expected to make huge sacrifices, but Western governments are really dragging their feet with anything that might inconvenience their own voters.

We know cutting oil and gas imminently is necessary anyway (see yet another alarming IPCC report this week - fossil fuels are killing way more people than Putin), and we also know that we're funding this war and many other atrocities. But the focus of discussion is constantly shifted elsewhere.

Western sanctions should include fossil fuels. No exceptions. Deal with the fallout (no pun intended) as it arises, but sustainably rather than just funding a different psychopath. Hopefully that's a slightly easier sell once spring comes, but at least from here in Portugal it seems tragic that we're all still funding this barbarity because of failures by our own governments.

[EACLucifer]

Der Spiegel reports German Intelligence have communications intercepts about the killings of civilians in Bucha that are detailed enough they can be linked to specific victims

Article is paywalled and in German. Are Germans really going to be ok with continuing to buy Russian gas and block arms to Ukraine?

If Europe sent one euro's worth of equipment to Ukraine for every euro sent to Russia for gas, oil and coal, Ukraine would have a very real chance of victory.

This is a really important point.

Sending military equipment and other strategic stuff like tractors is fine and interesting.

But the West is still funding Russia's crimes against humanity by paying them for oil and gas.

It seems to me that ordinary Ukrainians are expected to make huge sacrifices, but Western governments are really dragging their feet with anything that might inconvenience their own voters.

We know cutting oil and gas imminently is necessary anyway (see yet another alarming IPCC report this week - fossil fuels are killing way more people than Putin), and we also know that we're funding this war and many other atrocities. But the focus of discussion is constantly shifted elsewhere.

Western sanctions should include fossil fuels. No exceptions. Deal with the fallout (no pun intended) as it arises, but sustainably rather than just funding a different psychopath. Hopefully that's a slightly easier sell once spring comes, but at least from here in Portugal it seems tragic that we're all still funding this barbarity because of failures by our own governments.

Germany's refusal to reactivate/prolong the life of existing reactors is particularly indefensible. Though it might take a year or so to get reactors back online, building gas infrastructure to avoid dependance on Russia takes time, too, and unlike that approach, reactivating/maintaining reactors cuts out the carbon cost, and the geopolitical worries that they would just be transferring their dependence to a different tyrannical petrostate.

[Stranger Mouse]

Be even more careful on social media today than normal. Apparently people are circulating a video which I won’t even describe here with no warning. I don’t want to see it and it’s illegal anyway. I’ve certainly made sure auto play is turned off.

[EACLucifer]

Be even more careful on social media today than normal. Apparently people are circulating a video which I won’t even describe here with no warning. I don’t want to see it and it’s illegal anyway. I’ve certainly made sure auto play is turned off.

Seconded. I'm aware of what the video is, have avoided seeing it. You do not want to see it.

[Herainestold]

I'm not sure of this, but do we not have a policy of not linking to Ukraine War videos?

[EACLucifer]

I'm not sure of this, but do we not have a policy of not linking to Ukraine War videos?

We're not talking about people linking to it from here, we're talking about it circulating on social media, which it absolutely shouldn't be. Aside from anything else, viewing it in the UK would be a serious criminal offence.

If anyone were to be so appalling as to link the video we are referring to on this forum, I assume they would immediately receive a permanent ban and a referral to the police.

[Herainestold]

I'm not sure of this, but do we not have a policy of not linking to Ukraine War videos?

We're not talking about people linking to it from here, we're talking about it circulating on social media, which it absolutely shouldn't be. Aside from anything else, viewing it in the UK would be a serious criminal offence.

If anyone were to be so appalling as to link the video we are referring to on this forum, I assume they would immediately receive a permanent ban and a referral to the police.

Not advocating seeing it, or linking, but is it actually illegal?

[Stranger Mouse]

I'm not sure of this, but do we not have a policy of not linking to Ukraine War videos?

We're not talking about people linking to it from here, we're talking about it circulating on social media, which it absolutely shouldn't be. Aside from anything else, viewing it in the UK would be a serious criminal offence.

If anyone were to be so appalling as to link the video we are referring to on this forum, I assume they would immediately receive a permanent ban and a referral to the police.

Not advocating seeing it, or linking, but is it actually illegal?

Yes. Hence why I said it was illegal.

[jimbob]

I'm not sure of this, but do we not have a policy of not linking to Ukraine War videos?

We're not talking about people linking to it from here, we're talking about it circulating on social media, which it absolutely shouldn't be. Aside from anything else, viewing it in the UK would be a serious criminal offence.

If anyone were to be so appalling as to link the video we are referring to on this forum, I assume they would immediately receive a permanent ban and a referral to the police.

Not advocating seeing it, or linking, but is it actually illegal?

I have heard what it is and it's a war crime, and as has been said, viewing it would rightly be illegal in many countries including the UK.

You should be able to join the dots and work out what it is.

[Herainestold]

I understand what war crimes are, but surely there is a difference between committing a war crime and observing a video of an alleged war crime.