Blyatskrieg

[jimbob]

Between western aid, captures by Ukraine and Russian losses, Ukraine apparently has more tanks within Ukraine than Russia does at this point.

In other news two Russian helicopters were shot down in quick succession, at least one appears to have been downed by an Igla MANPADS

And the world is finally sending meaningful amounts of kit - talk of the Dutch sending artillery, possibly even the extremely capable PzH2000 SPG, which would also mean it being sent with German consent - Canada also sending heavy artillery, America sending dozens of howitzers and huge quantities of shells. I think people have finally realised that sending advanced arms does not trigger WWIII, and once some countries have moved, others have followed. I've seen rumours France might be quietly sending stuff, and the Kyiv Independent reported Charles Michel saying the EU would send heavy weapons, but wouldn't announce much about it.

There's a legitimate debate about how much to publicise transfers. It is good for Ukrainian morale to know help is coming, and it creates pressure on politicians if other countries have sent arms, and it creates a permission structure for other countries to join in. On the other hand, keeping the Russians guessing and giving them some very nasty surprises is also a valid approach.

Both is good. The threat of something like switchblade is probably almost as important as it's actual military effectiveness.

[lpm]

The west is incrementally adding arms, salami tactics, so there's never a specific day that enrages Putin and the Russian war machine.

[shpalman]

It's also a balance between actually helping Ukraine, and Ukraine being able to say they still desperately need help (which is true but they don't want a sort of international bystander effect to develop).

[TopBadger]

It is good for Ukrainian morale to know help is coming...

It's also bad for Russian Military leaderships moral. That their troops have been largely ineffective against Ukrainian troops with old soviet kit doesn't do their prospects of success much good when Ukrainian arms are getting both better and more numerous.

I've been thinking about the Artillery that is being given to Ukraine... That the Russian's have basically obliterated the areas they now hold likely means that Ukrainian armed forces will hold back much less about shelling what's left of their own cities. Those Russians should expect a taste of their own medicine in the next weeks.

[EACLucifer]

It is good for Ukrainian morale to know help is coming...

It's also bad for Russian Military leaderships moral. That their troops have been largely ineffective against Ukrainian troops with old soviet kit doesn't do their prospects of success much good when Ukrainian arms are getting both better and more numerous.

I've been thinking about the Artillery that is being given to Ukraine... That the Russian's have basically obliterated the areas they now hold likely means that Ukrainian armed forces will hold back much less about shelling what's left of their own cities. Those Russians should expect a taste of their own medicine in the next weeks.

Sadly this is one of the reasons why Russia has sought to hinder evacuation of civilians, including the attack on the station at Kramatorsk; they want Ukraine to be worried about hitting their own civilians.

However, the Ukrainian artillery is extremely capable and innovative, and they've had nearly a decade of practise in trench warfare. They are very accurate, and responsible for a lot more of the damaged/destroyed Russian equipment than some people - especially in the press - seem to realise. It's not just Javelins and NLAWs, its 122mm, 152mm and even 203mm guns, and MLRS. One trick the Ukrainian gunners are using is the use of drone observation to correct fire - using aircraft to direct fire isn't new, it was a major use of aircraft from WWI onwards - but with drones the person directing the artillery can be watching directly, and the drone can loiter without much risk as fire is observed. Drone observation might also be helping them fix their own positions, because knowing ones own position is as essential to accurately plotting a firing solution as knowing that of the target.

The other aid that should be significant is counter-battery radars to help the Ukrainians quickly locate the Russian positions. The combination of counter-battery radar and artillery that outranges much of the Russian equipment - be it Ukraine's own BM - 27 Uragan and BM-30 Smerch/Vilkha MLRS and 2S7 Pion 203mm guns or western 155mm with the right ammunition - will limit Russia's ability to bombard Ukrainian positions and force them into "shoot and scoot" tactics where they redeploy after every bit of firing.

[Allo V Psycho]

very interesting and convincing RUSI report here
https://static.rusi.org/special-report- ... -z-web.pdf
Working, so can't summarise other than to say it looks like a long tough war for Ukraine.

[EACLucifer]

very interesting and convincing RUSI report here
https://static.rusi.org/special-report- ... -z-web.pdf
Working, so can't summarise other than to say it looks like a long tough war for Ukraine.

The VDV assault units received the plan three days before the invasion and started excitedly talking in anticipation of
their daring operation. VDV commanders started discussing their primary objective at Hostomel in clear. When they landed, therefore, they were met with Ukrainian artillery and a coordinated counterattack, quickly being driven from the airport

The key thing when launching a daring operation to seize territory far inside another country is surprise. Talking about one's own plans on the radio - Russians don't seem to have much in the way of frequency hopping EW-resistant radio - without using code or encryption is not even a little bit compatible with surprise.

[jimbob]

very interesting and convincing RUSI report here
https://static.rusi.org/special-report- ... -z-web.pdf
Working, so can't summarise other than to say it looks like a long tough war for Ukraine.

The VDV assault units received the plan three days before the invasion and started excitedly talking in anticipation of
their daring operation. VDV commanders started discussing their primary objective at Hostomel in clear. When they landed, therefore, they were met with Ukrainian artillery and a coordinated counterattack, quickly being driven from the airport

The key thing when launching a daring operation to seize territory far inside another country is surprise. Talking about one's own plans on the radio - Russians don't seem to have much in the way of frequency hopping EW-resistant radio - without using code or encryption is not even a little bit compatible with surprise.

The initial invasion did come as a surprise.


To many of the Russian troops who were involved in it, if nobody else.

[EACLucifer]

There's images that have emerged of the aftermath of a thwarted Russian advance in the vicinity of Izyum. Reportedly it was the 64th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade - of Bucha infamy - that suffered the losses. Losses include several tanks and IFV/APCs, supply trucks and personnel.

[Martin Y]

very interesting and convincing RUSI report here
https://static.rusi.org/special-report- ... -z-web.pdf
Working, so can't summarise other than to say it looks like a long tough war for Ukraine.

I hadn't appreciated how they've doubled down and the Russian public are now being prepared for a longer war (and yes they can call it a war now). Also the considerable amount of discussion of their intentions toward Moldova next was interesting. It may be out of the window now they realise how wrong they were about Ukrainians rolling over, but it makes sense of the Russian officer recently quoted as saying their intent was to capture Donbas and the South of Ukraine. They really can't do much in Moldova if they don't have a land link all the way round to Transnistria. They might still think they can slog it out but this is going to be a hell of a long conflict if they determine to try all that.

[Allo V Psycho]

Russia has sent a salvage/rescue ship, the Kommuna, to the site of the Moskva sinking. It was launched in
Spoiler:

1913

[TimW]

She's got brand new sails though.

[Pishwish]

I wasn't familiar with the UR-77, a demining weapon that uses a rocket to pull an explosive-filled rope across enemy terrain and then blast a pathway through it. Seems that the Russians have used it as an urban warfare weapon in Syria and now Ukraine. (watch the first 15 seconds and the last 25.) This video gives a better idea of how the weapon works.

[EACLucifer]

I wasn't familiar with the UR-77, a demining weapon that uses a rocket to pull an explosive-filled rope across enemy terrain and then blast a pathway through it. Seems that the Russians have used it as an urban warfare weapon in Syria and now Ukraine. (watch the first 15 seconds and the last 25.) This video gives a better idea of how the weapon works.

The basic concept of a mine-clearing line charge is not a new one at all, it goes back to the Canadian "Snake" and British "Conger" of the second world war, with the British subsequently developing "Giant Viper" and "Python".

It's use as direct fire in urban combat is, as you point out, something that was used in Syria. It is extremely indiscriminate as a weapon. I've been worried about this happening more or less since the first sightings of UR-77s in the buildup.

[EACLucifer]

I wonder if Ukraine's talk about potentially hitting the Kerch Strait bridge is a bluff designed to divert Russian air defence, or a realistic proposition. As things stand, it's out of range of any existing Ukrainian munition, but if the rumours of western MLRS (anything that uses the standard pods used by a lot of NATO) then there's the potential for the supply of MGM-140 ATACMS. When using the usual rockets used by M270 and HIMARS MLRS, there are multiple rockets in the pod, but one MGM-140 fills the entire pod. Unlike the Tochka-Us Ukraine already possesses, it has the range to hit the bridge from Ukrainian-held territory on the west bank of the Dnipro

To be clear, this is a very, very unlikely scenario. While I've generally been pretty hostile to arguments that we couldn't possibly supply heavy equipment due to escalation risk, which has held up well so far, supplying even short range conventional-warhead only ballistic missiles is an escalation concern. The loss of the Kerch Strait bridge, on the other hand, would greatly complicate Russia's logistics in the south.

[lpm]

The border of Ukraine and Russia in the Kerch Strait is disputed. Most of the bridge is over a sandy island which was Russian.

The arched part of the bridge is in Ukraine, as far as I can make out.

Seems an important question to pin down? Would it be an attack on Russia or on occupied territory?

[EACLucifer]

The border of Ukraine and Russia in the Kerch Strait is disputed. Most of the bridge is over a sandy island which was Russian.

The arched part of the bridge is in Ukraine, as far as I can make out.

Seems an important question to pin down? Would it be an attack on Russia or on occupied territory?

It doesn't actually matter that much. Ukraine is perfectly entitled to attack Russian territory so long as they follow the normal laws of warfare - targetting strategic transport infrastructure used to supply an invading army is entirely permissable. And it also doesn't matter in terms of Russian response, as they claim Crimea is part of Russia.

[EACLucifer]

First evidence of western (in this case Slovak) supplied tanks in service has emerged. Since delivery, the T-72M1s have been fitted with explosive-reactive-armour, designed to reduce the effect of HEAT warheads. Evidently Ukraine - or those supplying Ukraine - are still able to produce and fit ERA, and upgrade tanks. It's worth thinking about as an approach if the Leopard-1s ever get approved for transfer.

[EACLucifer]

Speaking of attacks on Russian soil, it looks like there's been a bit of an incident in Bryansk. Absolutely no idea what was hit, and could be accident, but two explosions in two places in quick succession doesn't look very accidental.

[EACLucifer]

Speaking of attacks on Russian soil, it looks like there's been a bit of an incident in Bryansk. Absolutely no idea what was hit, and could be accident, but two explosions in two places in quick succession doesn't look very accidental.

I'm going to take a guess based on the look of the fires and say this might have been fuel storage

[jimbob]

Speaking of attacks on Russian soil, it looks like there's been a bit of an incident in Bryansk. Absolutely no idea what was hit, and could be accident, but two explosions in two places in quick succession doesn't look very accidental.

I'm going to take a guess based on the look of the fires and say this might have been fuel storage

Interesting report from 19th April claiming Russian military were moved out of there and posted "in case Russia attacks Bryansk and tries to blame Ukraine. Again"


https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/ ... 0335415300

[Woodchopper]

Speaking of attacks on Russian soil, it looks like there's been a bit of an incident in Bryansk. Absolutely no idea what was hit, and could be accident, but two explosions in two places in quick succession doesn't look very accidental.

I'm going to take a guess based on the look of the fires and say this might have been fuel storage

Interesting report from 19th April claiming Russian military were moved out of there and posted "in case Russia attacks Bryansk and tries to blame Ukraine. Again"


https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/ ... 0335415300

As with the attack on the installation on Belogrod, I can't see how Moscow gets anything it didn't have already by claiming that it was attacked by Ukraine, and Russia loses even more credibility.

[jimbob]

I'm going to take a guess based on the look of the fires and say this might have been fuel storage

Interesting report from 19th April claiming Russian military were moved out of there and posted "in case Russia attacks Bryansk and tries to blame Ukraine. Again"


https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/ ... 0335415300

As with the attack on the installation on Belogrod, I can't see how Moscow gets anything it didn't have already by claiming that it was attacked by Ukraine, and Russia loses even more credibility.

Nor can I. Unless it's internal Russian politics enabled but not due to the conflict.

[Woodchopper]

And I now realize that I spelt Belgorod wrong.

[lpm]

Ukraine keeps quiet about its attacks inside Russia. Obviously these are legitimate targets, but Ukraine clearly wants to present itself to the world as defenders of its own territory, not aggressors outside. Its important.