Dominic Cummings - In his own words

[Pedantica]

So lots of people have views on Dominic Cummings. I thought it was interesting to see what he actually says himself. I only found two lectures but both are interesting I think.

It's interesting how much of the first lecture includes ideas I expect this community agrees with. Despite the fact that on the whole it's on a very different part of the political spectrum. For example the need for evidence based policy and greater use of scientific methods in government and policy making.

The second lecture is just a huge challenge I think for those of us who like to think we're influencing the political conversation by sharing our opinions with other people in our social circles.

Thoughts on the Civil Service (2014)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNaWPV5l4j4

Why leave won the referendum (2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbRxH9Kiy4

[sheldrake]

He is most often known for things he thinks metropolitan centre-left/liberals are wrong about, but I've also heard him express real misgivings about things he thinks the political right is in denial about. Undeserved high pay in the private sector being the main one I remember. I think it's mentioned in one of the speeches above.

[Pedantica]

He is most often known for things he thinks metropolitan centre-left/liberals are wrong about, but I've also heard him express real misgivings about things he thinks the political right is in denial about. Undeserved high pay in the private sector being the main one I remember. I think it's mentioned in one of the speeches above.

It's mentioned in both of them with slightly different examples. Will be interesting to see if Johnson listens.

[Little waster]

For example the need for evidence based policy and greater use of scientific methods in government and policy making.

The issue was following the intervention of the CHF of our former parish, Cummings concluded that this was best accomplished by having a couple copies of Science and Nature lying around on the coffee tables in the common room of the DoE.

Similarly when the CHF was pushing hard for the use of RCTs in assessing the impact of changes in policy Cummings response was to say “that’s a great idea” but it simply could not be done in terms of education policy (!) and anyway it wasn’t needed as he already KNEW what they were implementing was already the best possible policy regardless of what the educational research actually said.

Cummings support for the scientific method has never noticeably risen above cargo-cultism.

[GeenDienst]

I read a longish article from Goldacre on RCTs in education policy once, and nowhere did it address the issue of gaining informed consent prior to the trial. Perhaps the question is not if it can be done, but if it can be done ethically.

Disclaimer: nothing in this post makes Cummings not a c.nt.

[Little waster]

I read a longish article from Goldacre on RCTs in education policy once, and nowhere did it address the issue of gaining informed consent prior to the trial. Perhaps the question is not if it can be done, but if it can be done ethically.

Disclaimer: nothing in this post makes Cummings not a c.nt.

How does that work on a population level intervention (that may not be the correct phrase)?

If I wanted to test say whether dropping the motorway speed limit to 55mph saved lives ideally I would run a trial where one section of motorway trialled the new speed limit and compare it to an equivalent section where the limit stayed the same. There would be no suggestion of getting the informed consent of the drivers affected.

Similarly if a school wanted to trial synthetic phonics or free school breakfasts or banning energy drinks or whatever to see if it improved student performance, would informed consent be required? The only difference with doing that and upgrading to a formalised RCT is you would need to identify an appropriate control arm to compare it with.

[sheldrake]

If I wanted to test say whether dropping the motorway speed limit to 55mph saved lives ideally I would run a trial where one section of motorway trialled the new speed limit and compare it to an equivalent section where the limit stayed the same. There would be no suggestion of getting the informed consent of the drivers affected.

Similarly if a school wanted to trial synthetic phonics or free school breakfasts or banning energy drinks or whatever to see if it improved student performance, would informed consent be required?

Yes. If you try to experiment on my children with a methodology for teaching reading that I don't agree with I will be very f.cking annoyed and possibly try to move them to a school in the other experiment arm, or go private if I'm in the 5%.

[purplehaze]

Leave won the referendum because of money: to give a lecture on this and not acknowledge it is dishonest.

Cummings is an adviser to the Prime Minister, previously Michael Gove (he's certainly being passed around). The first link has poor sound quality and I find it hard to listen to so his words, his 'own' words, are lost to me somewhat. Cummings has the dandruff charisma off Ian Duncan Smith.

[purplehaze]

To add:

I've just joined the Labour Party.

I had to give a reason why I was joining from a drop down menu. I clicked 'other' because I did want to give a reason other, one of the five being: 'Let's kick the Tories out of Downing Street.'

A performing bear could last ten years at least in Downing Street with that kind of opposition.

Oh, wait.

[Pedantica]

Leave won the referendum because of money: to give a lecture on this and not acknowledge it is dishonest.

Cummings is an adviser to the Prime Minister, previously Michael Gove (he's certainly being passed around). The first link has poor sound quality and I find it hard to listen to so his words, his 'own' words, are lost to me somewhat.

Sounds quality is good. Apart from the first 15 seconds when someone without a mic is talking in the background. Its worth a listen.

[Gfamily]

Yes. If you try to experiment on my children with a methodology for teaching reading that I don't agree with I will be very f.cking annoyed and possibly try to move them to a school in the other experiment arm, or go private if I'm in the 5%.

On what basis would you determine whether or not you 'agreed' with the approach? Your intuition?

[sheldrake]

Leave won the referendum because of money: to give a lecture on this and not acknowledge it is dishonest.

That is delusional. Remain massively out-spent leave, including use of public funds to leaflet every voter in the UK to tell them to vote remain.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 78588.html
https://capx.co/remain-not-leave-had-an ... eferendum/
https://facts4eu.org/news/2019_jan_remain_advertising
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/151 ... eferendum/

[sheldrake]

Yes. If you try to experiment on my children with a methodology for teaching reading that I don't agree with I will be very f.cking annoyed and possibly try to move them to a school in the other experiment arm, or go private if I'm in the 5%.

On what basis would you determine whether or not you 'agreed' with the approach? Your intuition?

Almost certainly, like most of the rest of the population. 'But let me experiment on your kids with this new thing, trust me I'm more logical than you'.

If you don't understand why that message would be perceived as repellent, you probably shouldn't be on any scientific ethics committees.

[Gfamily]

Yes. If you try to experiment on my children with a methodology for teaching reading that I don't agree with I will be very f.cking annoyed and possibly try to move them to a school in the other experiment arm, or go private if I'm in the 5%.

On what basis would you determine whether or not you 'agreed' with the approach? Your intuition?

Almost certainly, like most of the rest of the population. 'But let me experiment on your kids with this new thing, trust me I'm more logical than you'.

If you don't understand why that message would be perceived as repellent, you probably shouldn't be on any scientific ethics committees.

Like I said before, it's like talking to a f.cking idiot.

[sheldrake]

On what basis would you determine whether or not you 'agreed' with the approach? Your intuition?

Almost certainly, like most of the rest of the population. 'But let me experiment on your kids with this new thing, trust me I'm more logical than you'.

If you don't understand why that message would be perceived as repellent, you probably shouldn't be on any scientific ethics committees.

Like I said before, it's like talking to a f.cking idiot.

Not at all. I'm trying to explain to you why you need to ask consent before experimenting on people's children. The fact that they may be wrong or unscientific in their opinions doesn't alter this. They're not machines you have a right to optimise for their own good by dint of your superior education. That's not how democracies work.

It's more likely that your difficulty understanding/accepting this is related to the hard time you had with the 'emotional discrimination' questions in the 'Intelligence' thread.

[Gfamily]

Almost certainly, like most of the rest of the population. 'But let me experiment on your kids with this new thing, trust me I'm more logical than you'.

If you don't understand why that message would be perceived as repellent, you probably shouldn't be on any scientific ethics committees.

Like I said before, it's like talking to a f.cking idiot.

Not at all. I'm trying to explain to you why you need to ask consent before experimenting on people's children. The fact that they may be wrong or unscientific in their opinions doesn't alter this. They're not machines you have a right to optimise for their own good by dint of your superior education. That's not how democracies work.

How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out ?

[sheldrake]

How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out ?

I think you've missed the point here. You're trying to explain what is 'correct'. I'm explaining to you why doing that without people's consent is problematic. Dominc Cummings likely does understand the ethical and political ramifications of doing what you're suggesting.

[Gfamily]

How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out ?

I think you've missed the point here. You're trying to explain what is 'correct'. I'm explaining to you why doing that without people's consent is problematic. Dominc Cummings likely does understand the ethical and political ramifications of doing what you're suggesting.

Don't put words in my mouth.
Answer the question I asked.

[sheldrake]

How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out ?

I think you've missed the point here. You're trying to explain what is 'correct'. I'm explaining to you why doing that without people's consent is problematic. Dominc Cummings likely does understand the ethical and political ramifications of doing what you're suggesting.

Don't put words in my mouth.
Answer the question I asked.

I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm explaining to you why you've missed the point. There's no variation on 'but we do experiments anyway and always have' or 'RCT would be the best method here' which changes that. Your question, and the answer to it, are irrelevant.

[Gfamily]

I think you've missed the point here. You're trying to explain what is 'correct'. I'm explaining to you why doing that without people's consent is problematic. Dominc Cummings likely does understand the ethical and political ramifications of doing what you're suggesting.

Don't put words in my mouth.
Answer the question I asked.

I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm explaining to you why you've missed the point. There's no variation on 'but we do experiments anyway and always have' or 'RCT would be the best method here' which changes that.

Nope, I get the feeling you're babbling now. Try explaining yourself better.

[sheldrake]

Don't put words in my mouth.
Answer the question I asked.

I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm explaining to you why you've missed the point. There's no variation on 'but we do experiments anyway and always have' or 'RCT would be the best method here' which changes that.

Nope, I get the feeling you're babbling now. Try explaining yourself better.

I've been very clear. You've overfocussed on the question of the correct application of scientific method without considering the ethical or political ramificantions of experimenting on people's children without discussing it with them first. Dominic Cummings understands this. He probably wouldn't struggle as much as you on the 'understanding emotions' bit of that test.

[Opti]

aaaaaahh f.ck. My first ignore. Should have done it earlier. Stupid old Grampsie Opti.

[bjn]

aaaaaahh f.ck. My first ignore. Should have done it earlier. Stupid old Grampsie Opti.

Beat you to it by a week or so.

[Gfamily]

I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm explaining to you why you've missed the point. There's no variation on 'but we do experiments anyway and always have' or 'RCT would be the best method here' which changes that.

Nope, I get the feeling you're babbling now. Try explaining yourself better.

I've been very clear. You've overfocussed on the question of the correct application of scientific method without considering the ethical or political ramificantions of experimenting on people's children without discussing it with them first. Dominic Cummings understands this. He probably wouldn't struggle as much as you on the 'understanding emotions' bit of that test.

No, but seriously, rather than trying to divert the topic, how about answering the question. How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out?

[sheldrake]

Nope, I get the feeling you're babbling now. Try explaining yourself better.

I've been very clear. You've overfocussed on the question of the correct application of scientific method without considering the ethical or political ramificantions of experimenting on people's children without discussing it with them first. Dominic Cummings understands this. He probably wouldn't struggle as much as you on the 'understanding emotions' bit of that test.

No, but seriously, rather than trying to divert the topic, how about answering the question. How on earth do you think any current teaching approaches have been worked out?

Some of our current teaching approaches have existed for decades, having been inherited from unscientific received wisdom/trial and error without scientific controls. Some methods will have been based on research that was conducted with best scientific practice, and some of them will come from research that suffers from methodological problems (like much social science). Different schools will use different methods in many cases.

I am not diverting the topic, because we're only having this discussion because you expressed surprise that you might be required to seek consent to conduct RCT of teaching methods. I don't think your question is relevant here.