Russian Civil War

[FlammableFlower]

I watched the BBC series recently on the last years of communism and the transition through chaos to Putin's rise. Those videos of the Russian generals appealing for Wagner troops to surrender and their own troops to resist reminds me of the ineffective attempts by the army to first shore up, then reinstate, communism.

For Putin, he's now stuck with his generals. He can't side with Prigozhin as he'll be always seen to be under him. There's no way back from it. For Prigozhin, he's definitely crossed the Rubicon now and I can't see how this can end any other way than defeating Putin or getting killed.

Prigozhin played social media to trash the Russian army, and it seems that many are opting to join Wagner than fight, at least in the first instance when they don't have weight of numbers.

[Martin Y]

They took air defence systems, so certainly weren't messing about

If, as it appears, Prigozhyn is moving from Rostov toward Moscow, and none of the small ground forces they encounter along the way fancy a fight, air defence is probably his biggest concern.

I wonder how far they can get before they find someone who really intends to stop them.

[EACLucifer]

Prigozhin played social media to trash the Russian army, and it seems that many are opting to join Wagner than fight, at least in the first instance when they don't have weight of numbers.

If your message is that the armed forces treats its soldiers like sh.t, soldiers who are treated like sh.t might think you are onto something.

[bjn]

I watched the BBC series recently on the last years of communism and the transition through chaos to Putin's rise. Those videos of the Russian generals appealing for Wagner troops to surrender and their own troops to resist reminds me of the ineffective attempts by the army to first shore up, then reinstate, communism.

For Putin, he's now stuck with his generals. He can't side with Prigozhin as he'll be always seen to be under him. There's no way back from it. For Prigozhin, he's definitely crossed the Rubicon now and I can't see how this can end any other way than defeating Putin or getting killed.

Prigozhin played social media to trash the Russian army, and it seems that many are opting to join Wagner than fight, at least in the first instance when they don't have weight of numbers.

If I were a Russian company commander dispatched to block Wagner, and I had the faintest idea of what had been happening in the invasion of Ukraine, f.cked if I’d stop Prizoghin. I’d probably join, hoping to see various generals get their comeuppances.

[Grumble]

I have nothing to add except my schadenfreude

[shpalman]

(shamelessly stolen)

2021: Russian Army is the second strongest army in the world
2022: Russian Army is the second strongest army in Ukraine
2023: Russian Army is the second strongest army in Russia

Russia will apply to join @NATO for protection against both Ukraine and also Russia.

[Woodchopper]

Heavy fighting around Voronezh...

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/16 ... _&ref_url=

The Wagnerites seem to have a lot of heavy equipment: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 38436?s=20

Firstly they had a bunch of that to start with. Secondly there are likely defections to their side. Thirdly seizing Rostov's given them control of much of the logistics chain for the invasion of Ukraine, which probably means that Prigozhin actually has the ammo he wanted all along now.

Of course, but one unknown factor has been what proportion of the Wagnerites would heed the call of their leader.

It looks like a lot of them have.

[Woodchopper]

Gil Scott Heron has been proved wrong again. The revolution is being televised.

[EACLucifer]

Gil Scott Heron has been proved wrong again. The revolution is being televised.

But is Russian state television showing Swan Lake yet?

[bob sterman]

Gil Scott Heron has been proved wrong again. The revolution is being televised.

And I swear Putin is looking 5 pounds thinner!

[Woodchopper]

Not going well when Moscow bombs its own supplies to stop Wagner getting them.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[EACLucifer]

Someone's blown up an oil depot in Voronezh with a Ka-52 attack helicopter. My guess would be regime forces as a) they appear to have helicopters and Wagner, as of yet, don't, and b) they may be trying to deny Wagner group fuel for their advance on Moscow*.

The audio for this is also a reminder of the human cost of this sort of action, and eerily similar to a video I posted of the first couple of days of the escalation last year, though that was of course an attack on Ukrainian civilians.

*If you told me I'd be writing that even as recently as yesterday morning I'd have looked at you like you'd grown another head.

[EACLucifer]

A column of rebels is reportedly moving towards Krasnodar. That would effectively cut MOD held areas off from any route into occupied Ukraine.

[EACLucifer]

Not going well when Moscow bombs its own supplies to stop Wagner getting them.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w

We both posted this, but according to Calibre Obscura, it looks like a failed attempt by Wagner group to shoot down the regime Ka-52 saw a missile miss and strike the depot.

[Martin Y]

That oil depot video has a bit of a video game look to the fireball. Might be fake, even if the event is not.

Second thoughts, maybe real after all. I just thought the contrast seemed a bit different compared to the rest of the picture, but the other videos circulating show other parts of the same event so I'm coming down on the side of fakery being too unlikely.

[Woodchopper]

Ha!
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[Woodchopper]

Not going well when Moscow bombs its own supplies to stop Wagner getting them.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w

We both posted this, but according to Calibre Obscura, it looks like a failed attempt by Wagner group to shoot down the regime Ka-52 saw a missile miss and strike the depot.

Makes sense.

[headshot]

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1 ... 4831647744

[Woodchopper]

It seems Lukashenko may have bolted for Turkey during the night...

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 3550333954

Or perhaps his family.

[Formerly AvP]

Polish media has video of the M4 motorway north from Voronezh jammed with escaping traffic. Southbound was pretty empty (apart from whoever was making the video)

'Mass events' (?football matches? etc.) have been cancelled in Russia.

[Woodchopper]

Report of Chechen units heading for Rostov.
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

If they get involved that might not be popular with the local population.

[Woodchopper]

High quality Ukrainian trolling
https://twitter.com/war__online/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[jimbob]

Prigozhin needs to go for it. For him it's either death or civil war.

Yes, I have been saying it was inevitable since October

[EACLucifer]

It seems Lukashenko may have bolted for Turkey during the night...

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 3550333954

Or perhaps his family.

Putin's jet's left Moscow, no idea if the Khuylo in Chief is aboard.

Looks to be heading in the direction of St Petersburg.

[EACLucifer]

High quality Ukrainian trolling
https://twitter.com/war__online/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Jaga Jaga!