Hamas attack on Israel

[EACLucifer]

With the terrorists driven out, the full horror of what they have done starts to become apparent. There's reports circulating of them having decapitated babies.

In the Gulf War there were reports of Iraqi troops throwing Kuwaiti babies out of incubators, but that turned out to be untrue.

It appears to be solidly sourced. It's not something I would seek photographic evidence of directly.

[lpm]

It resembles a Viking raid from 1,200 years ago.

[EACLucifer]

It resembles a Viking raid from 1,200 years ago.

It resembles a pogrom, something that was a feature of the Arab world as much as it was of the European one.

There's not apparently any confirmation either way on the claims of beheaded children. There is, however, apparently confirmed footage (I'm going with trusted analysts here, I am *not* willing to seek the imagery myself) of Spoiler:

the bodies of children burned to death

The sadism is what really stands out. They didn't just seek to slaughter, but to inflict as much suffering on those they could not kill as possible.

[lpm]

In pogroms they wouldn't abduct women to rape then kill, or hostages to keep for future blackmail. Nor was this a mass hysteria type event, it was carefully planned.

[monkey]

It resembles a Viking raid from 1,200 years ago.

Or ISIS not long ago.

This is contemporary too.

[EACLucifer]

In pogroms they wouldn't abduct women to rape then kill

This did, to an extent, happen during the Hebron massacre.

As for the rest, I generally agree - I merely note that the degree of sadism is equivalent to that seen in pogroms, but this was planned. That attackers had a degree of discipline and they did what they did tells us it was their intent all along.

[EACLucifer]

With the terrorists driven out, the full horror of what they have done starts to become apparent. There's reports circulating of them having decapitated babies.

In the Gulf War there were reports of Iraqi troops throwing Kuwaiti babies out of incubators, but that turned out to be untrue.

It's all horrible, whatever's been done

I'm sorry to say it does appear to be increasingly corroborated.

This isn't the only person reporting having seen the images. Apparently Hamas uploaded them on their Telegram channel. As an immediate measure, those channels should be shut down, just as IS's ones were.

[Woodchopper]

Israeli death toll in the massacres is up to about 1200, with 3000 wounded. This seems to be consistent with the events that have been documented or reported upon.

Hamas claims that abound 900 have been killed in the Israeli air strikes. I haven’t seen any independent verification but civilians are going to be killed in air strikes in urban areas.

“We have sent our infantry, armoured soldiers, our artillery corps and many other soldiers from the reserves,” said Conricus, the IDF spokesperson. Their mission “is to make sure that Hamas at the end of this war won’t have any military capabilities by which they can threaten or kill Israeli civilians”.

https://www.ft.com/content/8035a4b4-1d0 ... 3260a06f68

I don’t see how that could be achieved without a ground assault over all of Gaza. Hamas have used tunnels so air strikes probably aren’t going to work.

This still seems to be a trap set by Hamas. Israeli troops will face high losses and there will be very serious civilian casualties from fighting and indirect effects like lack of food, clean water and medical care.

It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah will attack Israel or whether Israel will attack Iran.

[tenchboy]

snip

This still seems to be a trap set by Hamas. Israeli troops will face high losses and there will be very serious civilian casualties from fighting and indirect effects like lack of food, clean water and medical care.

It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah will attack Israel or whether Israel will attack Iran.

The only thing that can ever compensate for the deaths of thousands of innocent women and children is the deaths of thousands more innocent women and children. Everyone knows that.

[Woodchopper]

If there is to be a general war in the Middle East then the number of dead will be orders of magnitude higher than were massacred over the past few days. Destruction doesn't offer any compensation.

[Woodchopper]

With the terrorists driven out, the full horror of what they have done starts to become apparent. There's reports circulating of them having decapitated babies.

In the Gulf War there were reports of Iraqi troops throwing Kuwaiti babies out of incubators, but that turned out to be untrue.

It appears to be solidly sourced. It's not something I would seek photographic evidence of directly.

As far as I can tell it’s been reported by several foreign news sources but not officially confirmed by the Israeli armed forces.

Though IMHO this is a distraction. We know that many children were deliberately killed. The means used is vastly less important than the murder itself.

[Martin Y]

... This still seems to be a trap set by Hamas. Israeli troops will face high losses and there will be very serious civilian casualties from fighting and indirect effects like lack of food, clean water and medical care.

It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah will attack Israel or whether Israel will attack Iran.

Certainly Gaza is a trap but the whole thing looks like a gigantic trap set by Hamas. They seem to have committed the maximum outrage and horror they could achieve, and they claimed Iran helped them, to try to provoke a wider war and not just reprisal into Gaza.

The damage Hamas can directly do to Israel is tiny compared to the destruction unleashed if it can ignite a wider war.

[EACLucifer]

... This still seems to be a trap set by Hamas. Israeli troops will face high losses and there will be very serious civilian casualties from fighting and indirect effects like lack of food, clean water and medical care.

It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah will attack Israel or whether Israel will attack Iran.

Certainly Gaza is a trap but the whole thing looks like a gigantic trap set by Hamas. They seem to have committed the maximum outrage and horror they could achieve, and they claimed Iran helped them, to try to provoke a wider war and not just reprisal into Gaza.

The damage Hamas can directly do to Israel is tiny compared to the destruction unleashed if it can ignite a wider war.

The problem for Israel is that genocidal sentiments against Jews are still really common in the region, a phenomenon that predates Israel. They won their wars against the Arab states in 48, 67 and 73, averting catastrophe by so doing and also making it clear to those states that they were not going to be destroyed militarily. The leadership of those states quietly accepted that, either making peace like Egypt, or just refraining from hostilities, like Syria. The problem is that those states never really brought their populations on board with that. If Hamas can convince the Arab world that Israel can be beaten militarily, it will lead to more attempts to do so down the line. This is compounded by the ubiquitous antisemitism of the region, which leads to the underestimation of Israeli determination, and the false belief that Israelis have somewhere else to go and can be driven there.

Right now, I don't see any Arab state joining in a war against Israel, it just doesn't make any sense for any of those governments. Lebanon's a basket case, Assad's too busy killing off his own people to take further risks, and most of the others are sufficiently concerned about Iran there's been moves towards normalisation with Israel. But that's something that could change. The IDF is still very capable, but it is not what it was in the 60s and 70s.

And Hamas have made it very clear that the consequences if Israel were to be defeated would be a second Holocaust.

[IvanV]

This still seems to be a trap set by Hamas. Israeli troops will face high losses and there will be very serious civilian casualties from fighting and indirect effects like lack of food, clean water and medical care.

It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah will attack Israel or whether Israel will attack Iran.

The only thing that can ever compensate for the deaths of thousands of innocent women and children is the deaths of thousands more innocent women and children. Everyone knows that.

The intended purpose of Israel's draconian retribution policy, as they describe it, is deterrence rather than compensation.

Clearly there is some deterrent effect. When you know what extreme retribution will follow from your actions, you think a bit more carefully about it. But evidently it is only partially effective. It is also inconsistent with international norms such as the Geneva Convention, being forms of collective punishment.

I think that deterrence of this kind makes the situation worse rather than better. But since Israel seems to gain more every time there is an uptick in conflict, quite a lot of people there don't seem to care about that. But I think they should, because in the longer run eventually a much larger conflict could result which would be a disaster.

You talk about it being a trap set by Hamas. But mostly over the last 75 years, the way every conflict leads to the ratchet being tightened, and Israel taking more, it could seen as a trap set by Israel. Continuing draconian actions leads to build up of resentment. But the trap is that if the Palestinians respond to that by boiling over again, the outcome will be worse for them. The containment will be even tighter, and Israel will continue to expand into the West Bank.

The situation today seems far worse than 30 years ago, when there seemed to be a degree of hope for peace. And it has got worse precisely because of the consistent application of such policies. Getting back to the situation of 30 years ago is clearly not going to happen quickly, it takes much longer to rebuild trust than that. I suspect that makes many people think it isn't worth even trying any more. But I think that could in the long run be a mistake.

At the present time, as Lucifer says, I don't see this igniting a wider conflict. Most of the Arab states seem to care far less about the Palestinians than they used to. Israel is on the cusp of having a treaty with Saudi Arabia, who are the most influential and powerful of the Arab states. And Iran has enough else to worry about for now. But down the track, things can be different.

[EACLucifer]

Shany Mor hit the nail on the head here. Posting a screenshot, as it's what I've got, and although I've read the whole article before, I now can't find a non-paywalled version of it.

Shany Mor on Palestinian conflict attitudes.png (144.44 KiB) Viewed 21347 times

[EACLucifer]

In the Gulf War there were reports of Iraqi troops throwing Kuwaiti babies out of incubators, but that turned out to be untrue.

It appears to be solidly sourced. It's not something I would seek photographic evidence of directly.

As far as I can tell it’s been reported by several foreign news sources but not officially confirmed by the Israeli armed forces.

Though IMHO this is a distraction. We know that many children were deliberately killed. The means used is vastly less important than the murder itself.

It's been confirmed at this point, though I agree entirely with your second sentence.

[Woodchopper]

Right now, I don't see any Arab state joining in a war against Israel, it just doesn't make any sense for any of those governments. Lebanon's a basket case, Assad's too busy killing off his own people to take further risks, and most of the others are sufficiently concerned about Iran there's been moves towards normalisation with Israel. But that's something that could change. The IDF is still very capable, but it is not what it was in the 60s and 70s.

And Hamas have made it very clear that the consequences if Israel were to be defeated would be a second Holocaust.

The aim isn't to win a war against Israel. The aim is to a) impose high costs upon Israel and b) provoke outside intervention that would benefit Hamas.

On a) if Hezbollah gets involved and launches attacks then Israel will may be involved in a triple assault on Gaza and southern Lebanon and southern Syria. Yes, the Lebanese and Syrian armed forces aren't up to much. But that would seem to be too much for Israel to take on as well. Even trying to control the whole of Gaza would be very difficult.

On b) it will be difficult for Arab states not to get involved if the situation in Gaza gets very bad. There's two million civilians there and states may well get involved if they perceive that there is mass starvation etc. Collective punishment is also a war crime. Likewise, European states will definitely get involved to prevent mass flows of migrants (eg in boats to Cyprus).

External involvement doesn't need to be a 1973 style invasion. For example, what would Israel do if Arab states sent an armed naval convoy containing food and possibly arms?

[lpm]

Israel can simply spend 3 months saying "far too dangerous for aid in Gaza, Hamas terrorists still on the loose".

Complaints about a hospital without water and power can be answered with a demand for terrorists to surrender to allow doctors in safely.

The propaganda war is won effortlessly by Israel, if they restrain themselves.

[Woodchopper]

The propaganda war is won effortlessly by Israel, if they restrain themselves.

Which is a big ‘if’. Israel has stated that it’ll cut off food, water and fuel. It’s claimed that the population will soon start running out of food. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israeli-p ... -1.6990923

Seems possible as there is very little food production in Gaza.

[EACLucifer]

Reports of aircraft intrusion from Lebanon. Usually this is drones, but the language I'm seeing in the reports suggests this might be more than just drones.

Anyway, looks like Hezbollah may be getting involved after all.

This, along with the to date vastly more lethal Syrian and Yemeni conflicts, will continue so long as the IRGC exists.

[lpm]

The propaganda war is won effortlessly by Israel, if they restrain themselves.

Which is a big ‘if’. Israel has stated that it’ll cut off food, water and fuel. It’s claimed that the population will soon start running out of food. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israeli-p ... -1.6990923

Seems possible as there is very little food production in Gaza.

Seems straightforward to park a convey of food trucks and oil tankers near Gaza, then show international journalists around saying "we're going to send these in the minute Hamas terrorists stop shooting".

[EACLucifer]

Right now, I don't see any Arab state joining in a war against Israel, it just doesn't make any sense for any of those governments. Lebanon's a basket case, Assad's too busy killing off his own people to take further risks, and most of the others are sufficiently concerned about Iran there's been moves towards normalisation with Israel. But that's something that could change. The IDF is still very capable, but it is not what it was in the 60s and 70s.

And Hamas have made it very clear that the consequences if Israel were to be defeated would be a second Holocaust.

The aim isn't to win a war against Israel.

That is exactly what Hamas and Iran want. They've shown us that. They've told us it, too - a few years back when people were bleating and whining because Israel shot down militants who tried to get through the border fencing during the "Great Return March", Sinwar was talking about tearing the hearts from the bodies of the Jews. Hamas wrote a rejection of peace settlement into their constitution, Hamas wrote a call for the massacre of Jews into their constitution. The IRGC, meanwhile, is lousy with the Shia equivalent of end-timers, and one of the things they think is required for the return of the hidden imam is the killing of Jews - taken from the same hadith as the quote in Hamas's charter.

Treating them as a movement with extreme rhetoric but ultimately pragmatic was a terrible, terrible mistake.

[EACLucifer]

Reports of aircraft intrusion from Lebanon. Usually this is drones, but the language I'm seeing in the reports suggests this might be more than just drones.

Per Mannie Fabian, who you should be following if you follow this on Xitter, this was just drones.


Given where they are flying from, it will be revealing if it is the more conventional improvised drone munitions, or purpose built ones from Iran like the notorious Shaheds used to attack Ukraine (aka Shaitanmopeds).

Could well be Hezbollah feels they have to demonstrably do something, but are trying to manage escalation risks with a limited strike, but we'll see.

The US is reporting evacuating the embassy in Beirut, though, and calling for Americans to leave Lebanon immediately, so it's clear there is significant danger. As if the ordinary people of Lebanon have not been through enough already

ETA: It could also be PFLP, or even Hamas, who have a small presence in Lebanon. No confirmation of Hezbollah involvement right now.

[EACLucifer]

Reports of aircraft intrusion from Lebanon. Usually this is drones, but the language I'm seeing in the reports suggests this might be more than just drones.

Per Mannie Fabian, who you should be following if you follow this on Xitter, this was just drones.


Given where they are flying from, it will be revealing if it is the more conventional improvised drone munitions, or purpose built ones from Iran like the notorious Shaheds used to attack Ukraine (aka Shaitanmopeds).

Could well be Hezbollah feels they have to demonstrably do something, but are trying to manage escalation risks with a limited strike, but we'll see.

The US is reporting evacuating the embassy in Beirut, though, and calling for Americans to leave Lebanon immediately, so it's clear there is significant danger. As if the ordinary people of Lebanon have not been through enough already

ETA: It could also be PFLP, or even Hamas, who have a small presence in Lebanon. No confirmation of Hezbollah involvement right now.

The Embassy bit is fake news, notably circulated by Iranian outlet Press TV and others.

[EACLucifer]

Reports of aircraft intrusion from Lebanon. Usually this is drones, but the language I'm seeing in the reports suggests this might be more than just drones.

Per Mannie Fabian, who you should be following if you follow this on Xitter, this was just drones.


Given where they are flying from, it will be revealing if it is the more conventional improvised drone munitions, or purpose built ones from Iran like the notorious Shaheds used to attack Ukraine (aka Shaitanmopeds).

Could well be Hezbollah feels they have to demonstrably do something, but are trying to manage escalation risks with a limited strike, but we'll see.

The US is reporting evacuating the embassy in Beirut, though, and calling for Americans to leave Lebanon immediately, so it's clear there is significant danger. As if the ordinary people of Lebanon have not been through enough already

ETA: It could also be PFLP, or even Hamas, who have a small presence in Lebanon. No confirmation of Hezbollah involvement right now.

The Embassy bit is fake news, notably circulated by Iranian outlet Press TV and others.

And now the IDF are saying the intrusion was a false alarm.