General Election '24

[Stranger Mouse]

"This post has been deleted."20240620_145801.jpg

I saw that. Absolutely amazing the dingbats did it but then again they have no shame

[lpm]

I suspect it's someone in their team who has (a) a dickhead boss and (b) a great sense of humour.

[El Pollo Diablo]

The thing that gets me about the tories in the last five years is their unerring ability to turn something that shouldn't really cut through into a proper full-blown scandal, mainly by ignoring it and hoping it goes away

[jimbob]

The thing that gets me about the tories in the last five years is their unerring ability to turn something that shouldn't really cut through into a proper full-blown scandal, mainly by ignoring it and hoping it goes away

In this case, using a campaign tweet talking about betting on Labour isn't exactly ignoring the insider betting.

[lpm]

Updated timetable. Now includes cabinet ministers, wannabe leader contenders, comedy characters and various others that people here have mentioned.

22:00 Exit poll
23:30 First result from somewhere like Sunderland where they have a silly race to be first
23:31 Embarrassing over-analysis of first result by everyone
01:45 Results from first 30 constituencies
01:45 : Basildon & Billericay = Richard Holden = Cabinet / Comedy
01:45 : Rayleigh & Wickford = Mark Francois = Comedy
02:00 : Fareham & Waterlooville = Suella Braverman = Leader
02:00 : Wycombe = Steve Baker = Other
02:30 Results from first 100 constituencies
02:30 : Hertsmere = Oliver Dowden = Cabinet
02:30 : North West Essex = Kemi Badenoch = Cabinet / Leader
02:30 : Chingford & Woodford Green = Ian Duncan Smith = Comedy
02:30 : Hamble Valley = Paul Holmes = Other
03:00 : Forest of Dean = Mark Harper = Cabinet
03:00 Results from 200 constituencies
03:15 : Braintree = James Cleverly = Cabinet
03:15 : East Surrey = Claire Coutinho = Cabinet
03:15 : Sutton Coldfield = Andrew Mitchell = Cabinet
03:15 : Islington North = Jeremy Corbyn = Comedy
03:15 : Grantham & Bourne = Gareth Davies = Other
03:15 : West Worcestershire = Harriett Baldwin = Other
03:15 : Kingston & Surbiton = Ed Davey = LibDem
03:30 Results from 300 constituencies
03:30 : Louth and Horncastle = Victoria Atkins = Cabinet
03:30 : Portsmouth North = Penny Mordaunt = Cabinet / Leader
03:30 : Monmouth = David Davies = Cabinet
03:30 : Sevenoaks = Laura Trott = Cabinet
03:30 : Tatton = Esther McVey = Cabinet
03:30 : North East Somerset and Hanham = Jacob Rees-Mogg = Comedy
03:30 : Clacton = Nigel Farage = Smug git
03:30 : Bristol Central = Thangam Debbonaire = Labour vs Greens
03:45 : Witham = Priti Patel = Leader
03:45 : Newark = Robert Jenrick = Leader
03:45 : North Devon = Selaine Saxby = Other
03:45 : Tunbridge Wells = Neil Mahapatra = Other
04:00 : Godalming & Ash = Jeremy Hunt = Cabinet / Leader
04:00 : Melksham and Devizes = Michelle Donelan = Cabinet
04:00 : Chichester = Gillian Keegan = Cabinet
04:00 : Tonbridge = Tom Tugendhat = Cabinet
04:00 : Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge = Gavin Williamson = Did deal with Reform
04:00 : Shrewsbury = Daniel Kawczynski = Other
04:14 : Richmond and Northallerton = Rishi Sunak = Concession speech
04:15 : North East Cambridgeshire = Steve Barclay = Cabinet
04:15 : Caerfyrddin = Simon Hart = Cabinet
04:15 : Ashfield = Lee Anderson = Smug git
04:15 : Brighton Pavillion = Sian Berry = Green
04:20 Holborn & St Pancras = Keir Starmer = Victory speech
04:30 : Welwyn Hatfield = Grant Shapps = Cabinet / Leader
04:45 : Central Devon = Mel Stride = Cabinet
04:45 : Ely and East Cambridgeshire = Lucy Frazer = Cabinet
04:45 : Mid Dorset and North Poole = Michael Tomlinson = Cabinet
04:45 : South West Norfolk = Liz Truss = Comedy
05:00 : Cheltenham = Alex Chalk = Cabinet
05:00 : Banbury = Victoria Prentis = Cabinet
05:00 : Salisbury = John Glen = Cabinet
05:00 : Plymouth Moor View = Johnny Mercer = Cabinet
05:30 : Suffolk Coastal = Therese Coffey = Comedy
05:30 : Christchurch = Christopher Chope = Other
05:30 : Yeovil = Marcus Fysh = Other
05:45 : Mid Buckinghamshire = Greg Smith = Other

[lpm]

Another important resource for the evening's entertainment

[lpm]

https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1803806234786611640

Amusing spike in betting on day before election.

Love it. Stupidity combined with pathetic corruption.

[Trinucleus]

https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1803806234786611640

Amusing spike in betting on day before election.

Love it. Stupidity combined with pathetic corruption.

On Newsnight the day before the announcement there was talk of cabinet ministers revising travel plans, taken as a sign something was afoot, so there was some opportunity for people outside the inner circle to gamble on it. Mind you I guess that would have shortened the odds, so the most money would be made before that

[Grumble]

https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1803806234786611640

Amusing spike in betting on day before election.

Love it. Stupidity combined with pathetic corruption.

On Newsnight the day before the announcement there was talk of cabinet ministers revising travel plans, taken as a sign something was afoot, so there was some opportunity for people outside the inner circle to gamble on it. Mind you I guess that would have shortened the odds, so the most money would be made before that

It’s the days before the day before where there was a smattering that should probably be looked at most closely for the reasons you say.

[bagpuss]

Updated timetable.
...

Thanks lpm. Looks like the only time for sleep is 10-2 then. After that, the gaps between potential entertainment are way too short to risk even a brief nap, given that it's all very approximate.

Good thing my boss, and most of the rest of my colleagues, being US-based, will be off on the 5th, I can probably get away without taking the day off, as it's guaranteed to be very quiet.

[Boustrophedon]

Given a hill to die on, who would have guessed the Tories would choose William Hill?

Shamelessly stolen from twitter.

[monkey]

YouGov have Labour on 36% in their latest boring poll - clicky.

I know about outliers and bias and all (which I have decided to ignore for this post), but I think things might be seen to be a bit f.cking stupid if Starmer gets a hulking great boner majority on the gain of just a few percentage points over Corbyn in 2019 (32%) or less than he got in 2017 (40%)?

At least it's not the USian electoral college, eh?

[TopBadger]

It's a good point well made...

[TopBadger]

https://stopthetories.vote/parl/north-west-essex

Tactical vote is for Labour... I've been watching this since the election was called and they've only just called it. Seems they set this manually rather than automatically because the polls are all over the place. Hopefully LibDem voters are looking at this too!

[Grumble]

In my office at least one person was persuaded to vote Tory by last night’s tv

[lpm]

I've no longer got confidence in the MRPs, at a constituency level. There is too much disagreement between each. Something's off when one MRP puts in first place a candidate who another MRP has in third, with a big percentage difference.

Poll trackers are still where to look, not MRP.

It is the Reform estimates that throws everything off, I think - varies by 10% points or even 20%. The outcome for Conservatives moves in step.

North West Essex (Kemi Badenoch)

YouGov MRP
Conservative 40%, Labour 24%, LibDem 16%, Green 6%, Reform 13%

Savanta MRP
Conservative 31%, Labour 29%, LibDem 17%, Green 5%, Reform 31%

More In Common MRP
Conservative 42%, Labour 28%, LibDem 14%, Green 5%, Reform 9%

Fareham and Waterlooville (Suella Braverman)

YouGov MRP
Conservative: 33%, Labour: 22%, Lib Dem: 21%, Green: 5%, Reform 19%

Savanta MRP
Conservative 29%, Labour 31%, LibDem 16%, Green 5%, Reform 19%

More In Common MRP
Conservative 41%, Labour: 27%, LibDem 16%, Green 5%, Reform 9%

[dyqik]

Updated timetable. Now includes cabinet ministers, wannabe leader contenders, comedy characters and various others that people here have mentioned.

When do you think the Tories will win their first seat? And are there particular bellwethers early on that will indicate just how bad things might be?

(Obvs Sunak's seat is one particular marker, but that's a fairly optimistic thought)

[IvanV]

North West Essex (Kemi Badenoch)

YouGov MRP
Conservative 40%, Labour 24%, LibDem 16%, Green 6%, Reform 13%

Savanta MRP
Conservative 31%, Labour 29%, LibDem 17%, Green 5%, Reform 31%

More In Common MRP
Conservative 42%, Labour 28%, LibDem 14%, Green 5%, Reform 9%

Technically there is no longer a Reform candidate for NW Essex, although it is too late to change the ballot papers. Grant St.Clair-Armstrong, has resigned from the party, after his 2010 publication of pro-BNP and Enoch Powell comments were exposed.

To what extent NW Essex voters will appreciate that what appears as a Reform candidate on their ballot paper is not in fact a Reform candidate, and whether that might change their intended vote, may be even harder to estimate than the many other things that are hard to estimate in this election. It is possible that some recent local polls reflect this situation, and that might explain the low Reform vote some show. But overall I think it is reasonable to suspect that Badenough has a slightly better chance of being re-elected than she did before this happened.

[lpm]

When do you think the Tories will win their first seat? And are there particular bellwethers early on that will indicate just how bad things might be?

(Obvs Sunak's seat is one particular marker, but that's a fairly optimistic thought)

In 2019 there were 11 seats by 1 a.m., 9 Labour and 2 Tory.

First Tory win was Blyth Valley 11:30 p.m. then North Swindon 0:30 a.m. But these are now Labour wins.

The earliest close race could be Broxbourne, was at 01:15 last time. YouGov has this as CON 32%, LAB 33%. My guess is this is the first real bellwether.

I don't think there's a safe Tory seat until about 01:45 - which is that git Mark Francois in Rayleigh & Wickford.

I'm only going off 2019 timing and don't have a sense of how variable the timing is from election to election. Looking through the list, the old Red Wall seats tend to be earlier in the night so there were plenty of early Tory wins last time. The large rural shires tend to be late on (but some of them declared relatively early).

There's no doubt Labour will build a massive lead early on due to the urban and northern seats, particularly when the 73 London constituencies start coming through (from 2 a.m. onwards last time).

[dyqik]

I'm only going off 2019 timing and don't have a sense of how variable the timing is from election to election. Looking through the list, the old Red Wall seats tend to be earlier in the night so there were plenty of early Tory wins last time. The large rural shires tend to be late on (but some of them declared relatively early).

My intuition is that close results will be slower than expected for that constituency, based on e.g. 2019 timings, as there will be more checks. So maybe the first sign of how things are going is which constituencies are late declaring, and which are early.

[Woodchopper]

It is the Reform estimates that throws everything off, I think - varies by 10% points or even 20%. The outcome for Conservatives moves in step.

Yes, and other complications will probably be the anticipated level of tactical voting (it looks like much more than in the past, but difficult to anticipate how much) and the likelihood that supporters will actually vote (conservatives may be too disheartened and Labour may be too complacent).

[El Pollo Diablo]

I reckon that the best bet for final voting proportions for labour and the tories are the final week's average minus four points for labour and plus one point for the tories. No reason why it has to follow the same pattern as previous Labour wins, of course, but it at least sets a nice lower expectation.

[TimW]

And are there particular bellwethers early on that will indicate just how bad things might be?

I'll be staying up to keep an eye on things right up until the exit poll.

[IvanV]

I reckon that the best bet for final voting proportions for labour and the tories are the final week's average minus four points for labour and plus one point for the tories. No reason why it has to follow the same pattern as previous Labour wins, of course, but it at least sets a nice lower expectation.

I misread that as plus four for the tories and minus one for labour. Probably because I was expecting you to say something like that, given the well-known phenomenon of shy Tories. I know that polling bodies tend to adjust for that, to the extent that you can try to extrapolate from past evidence. But I'm guessing it might possibly be rather stronger than normal this time. It perhaps depends to what extent the core old age support for the Tories is shocked at the condition of the NHS vs worried for what Labour might do to their incomes.

Anyway, using that misreading, because I like it, and so putting something roughly like that, starting from current polling proportions, no tactical voting adjustment, into the model at Electoral Calculus, gave me Labour 399 Tories 149 Lib 50, a Lab majority of 148.

For me, I quite like something like that as starting line for trying to decide who's had an unexpectedly good/bad election. I recognise it is entirely personal prejudice, and a desire not to be too badly disappointed. Perhaps setting a low hurdle to jump over.

[El Pollo Diablo]

It's interesting - polls often tend to do better in terms of avoiding the previous election's mistakes. In 1997, the opinion polls got the Tory vote spot on, but overestimated the labour vote by five points. That was an election where much more than 1992 you might have expected shy tories to be in existence, and yet actually they didn't materialise, probably because they were already accounted for to some degree. That said, in 2001 the error was almost exactly repeated (Tories spot on, Labour overestimated by just under five points).

The big aberrations in the estimates for the Tory vote have only been in years when they've won - 1970 (3 points under), 1983 (3.3 points over), 1992 (4.2 points under), and 2015 (3.1 points under). The maximum error in the Tory vote when Labour have won is 1.9 points, and the average is 0.6.

The undecided voter counts are analysed to death by polling companies, and allocated to different parties, so maybe they'll be less inaccurate this time, but presumably that'll have been the case in the past too.