How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by dyqik »

IvanV wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 4:18 pm
We can do this rationally. That £4.6bn cost averages something like £3000 per household in Wales, where the average house (outside the social rented sector) is worth £213,000.
Since the £4.6bn cost is complete garbage, as it's based on an invalid calculation that integrates a non-integrable quantity, the £3000 per household is also garbage.

You can't proceed rationally from a completely irrational number.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by lpm »

Ivan, you started off the thread by pondering the safety saving - £110m p.a. cost vs safety saving being some portion of £400m. You forgot the non safety benefits.

You've now forgotten the safety saving and are effectively only comparing the £110m to increased enjoyment of homes.

You know you can't do this. List all the benefits and guess at a £ value for each, then compare the total to £110m p.a. (or whatever) cost.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by Sciolus »

lpm wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 2:23 pm
Sciolus wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:35 pm People are talking about imposing costs on motorists in order to provide benefits to third parties. In fact, we are redistributing a fraction of the costs that motorists impose on third parties back onto the motorists. That seems rather harder to argue against (without going "waaaah, road tax!!11!").
But the motorists and the third parties are almost the same people.
No, because:
lpm wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 3:46 pm We don't need to ask people, because we already vote with our money. Collectively we pay a premium to live in a quiet cul-de-sac. And pay a discount to live on a busy road.
the people who live on roads that are both heavily-trafficked and have dense houses along them are considerably poorer than average and drive less than average. There is a strong social equity issue behind this policy.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by Sciolus »

lpm wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 4:42 pm Ivan, you started off the thread by pondering the safety saving - £110m p.a. cost vs safety saving being some portion of £400m. You forgot the non safety benefits.

You've now forgotten the safety saving and are effectively only comparing the £110m to increased enjoyment of homes.

You know you can't do this. List all the benefits and guess at a £ value for each, then compare the total to £110m p.a. (or whatever) cost.
Cough.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by lpm »

Your cough does not include these sorts of benefits. It also fails to highlight benefits to children.

It also doesn't see the policy as one of the necessary steps towards towns having cycling as a major transport method - Bristol expressly used 20 mph as a component of the wider steps that created a Cycling City. Obviously cycling measures require additional £ though.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by IvanV »

I believe I have been discussing both sides of the issue.

But we need to consider both sides of this a bit more carefully than the Welsh minister, who, in his explanatory note on the 48 page impact assessment, wrote in 3 lines that he believed the benefits justify the cost, without saying why.

The comparison of the two sides is - to a large extent - nicely summed up in the question that someone cleverly suggested, what do you prefer - that I drive at 20mph past your house and I drive at 20mph past (all your) houses, or that we all drive at 30mph past each others houses. There's the value from you driving at slower speed past my house, and the cost of me driving at slower speed past (all your) houses. I have not agreed the time savings from slower journeys are trivial, but maybe more complicated than application of single unit cost to a bulk of minutes extended.

People mentioned a lot of omitted benefits. I observed in my first post that there are omitted benefits, and people found some more, very valid benefits. A lot of those omitted benefits will be reflected in an increased house value. So I started talking about house prices, because that seemed a nice way of thinking about the value to residents of an environment with slower traffic, albeit always hard to quantify. But I asked, to motivate an order of magnitude debate, how much increase in house price might be more than the time cost of extended journeys that people experience. (And its 50 seconds per journey, not per day, and people typically make at least 2 journeys per day, if they make more than 0).

I have not acknowledged the value of time is trivial. I have said there are difficulties with multiplying a constant unit value by an aggregate total time, because a lot of those might be small. But many might be substantial. We don't even know if someone did detailed modelling to find that out. But if we could do that better, we cannot say that suddenly the value is approximately nothing, we don't have enough information.

I took that 4.6bn npv because it was a number to hand, because I wanted a capital value to compare with house prices. But that was indeed lazy, indeed wrong, of me, as that is actually a net figure, costs minus benefits. If we look at the RIA, the time cost side (30 year npv) has a 6.4bn central case, with low and high at 2.7bn and 8.8bn. The 4.5bn comes from deducting quantified benefits from the 6.4bn. My £110m per year back of the envelope, after multiplying it up for 30 years npv, was nearer, indeed a little below, their bottom end estimate. I had indeed been rather conservative when I made some Fermi estimates to quantify it quickly without everything to hand.

We have talked that adding up lots of small amounts of time might be a problem. But even if we can resolve that issue, I don't think is going to make a quantities like those disappear to nothing.

So, back to the question. If you have a choice between people driving past your house at 20mph, given you have have to drive past other peoples houses at 20mph, or the same with 30mph, which would people actually prefer?

Fwiw, where I live, in this county in SE England where people care a lot about property values, the county council did eventually decide, rather later than some neighbouring counties, that continuous residential areas should all be 30mph, with some exceptions on suitable major roads. That's been in place for maybe 10-12 years now, and the continuously inhabited part of my road, about a quarter of its length, was reduced from derestricted to 30mph in that section. As I drive along the local 30mph roads, pretty much nearly all of them, I do think of it as a social compact. I drive here at 30mph, you drive past mine at 30mph. But the way many people actually drive past my house, especially in the rush hour, they don't seem to think that a social compact even at 30mph is one they want to adhere to. Perhaps that is what in part makes me question whether they really would sign up to a social compact at 20mph. But if it was really enforced, I wonder what they really would prefer. I suspect, given the great extent of 30mph suburbia in this part of the world, that journey time extensions might be larger.

Btw, the DfT has been commissioning broader 20mph studies on places where they have been implemented - many have been quietly implemented over the years, with relatively little fuss. Here's one from 2018. There's over 200 pages of it. At a glance, it notes large evidence gaps on the size and value of many of the impacts; no evidence of any casualty reductions in 20mph areas, though needs reassessing after being in place for 5 years; but general broad support for them among residents who live in them. So to the extent there are loud objections, maybe it is just the usual cake-ism, people expect to benefit from 20mph zones where they live while driving everywhere else without being restricted by them, just like people expect to benefit from large public spending while paying low taxes. Perhaps the Welsh could have implemented most of this in quieter ways without attracting so much attention.

But this still leaves interesting questions of how to make safety decisions, which we don't seem to have got much further on.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by Woodchopper »

Thanks all for the discussion.

As a meta comment the thread seems to be a good example of the practical difficulties in implementing utilitarianism. While it may be an attractive principle, as this thread shows it quickly becomes very difficult to a) identify and reach a consensus on all the relevant consequences of an action, and b) to be able to compare those consequences with precision.

In theory the consequences of speed limit reduction should be an easier problem, as we can measure things like death and injury or average journey times. Other pressing social problems are much more difficult.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by El Pollo Diablo »

I think further to that, this may be a good case of the strategic case for the reduction being somewhat at odds with the economic case. The strategy is, "let's make roads safer so fewer people are killed or injured and communities can work better", in a nutshell. The economic case says, "yeah, but the total sum of the tiny cost to a lot of people is, by our calculations, greater than the monetisable benefits", if you follow the DfT's transport appraisal guidance and HMT's Green Book principles.

Without wishing to divert too much, HS2 has similar issues. The strategic purpose of the line (increasing capacity, allowing more bums on seats and freeing up the normal railway to run different services; in turn, driving wider economic investment in non-London cities such as we're currently seeing in Birmingham) isn't very well captured in the economic case, which largely focuses instead on the benefits of faster journeys. The level 2 and 3 wider economic impacts are poorly modelled, despite them being the point. And, much as it pains me to admit it, sometimes there needs to be a step of faith that something is the right thing to do, and the analysis be damned. But then, that leaves the door open to Boris Island and tunnels under the Irish Sea.

There have been increasing efforts recently to try to move away from the economic case being the be-all-and-end-all and towards the strategic case taking precedence. That would be good to see, but all the efforts come up against the big hulking monolith that is the Treasury, where investment goes to die.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by IvanV »

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 11:14 am I think further to that, this may be a good case of the strategic case for the reduction being somewhat at odds with the economic case. The strategy is, "let's make roads safer so fewer people are killed or injured and communities can work better", in a nutshell. The economic case says, "yeah, but the total sum of the tiny cost to a lot of people is, by our calculations, greater than the monetisable benefits", if you follow the DfT's transport appraisal guidance and HMT's Green Book principles.

Without wishing to divert too much, HS2 has similar issues. The strategic purpose of the line (increasing capacity, allowing more bums on seats and freeing up the normal railway to run different services; in turn, driving wider economic investment in non-London cities such as we're currently seeing in Birmingham) isn't very well captured in the economic case, which largely focuses instead on the benefits of faster journeys. The level 2 and 3 wider economic impacts are poorly modelled, despite them being the point. And, much as it pains me to admit it, sometimes there needs to be a step of faith that something is the right thing to do, and the analysis be damned. But then, that leaves the door open to Boris Island and tunnels under the Irish Sea.

There have been increasing efforts recently to try to move away from the economic case being the be-all-and-end-all and towards the strategic case taking precedence. That would be good to see, but all the efforts come up against the big hulking monolith that is the Treasury, where investment goes to die.
I think you are right, although the analysis mustn't be totally damned. It should give us an idea of what this is costing us, and then we can say, so this stuff I believe in, can it really be worth the gap? And the gap should be not to break-even, but to remember that public money is in short supply and public money should to better than break-even.

A classic case was the introduction of motorways to Great Britain. The Treasury was against it, the economic case didn't stack up. But it was no white elephant, even remembering what it had cost. The M50 (Tewkesbury to Ross-on-Wye), we can see that is a white elephant.

An analysis of the tunnels or bridges from Kintyre to Northern Ireland clearly shows that in no plausible state of the world could that make any sense at all.

The Airports Commission looked at alternatives for expanding airport capacity in SE England, and reclaimed land in the Thames Estuary clearly made utterly no sense in comparison to alternatives. So this mode of analysis can make sense.

What can go wrong with safety projects in railways is that they are driven by a judge-defined concept, what ALARP should be judicially interpreted as meaning when someone says "but this costs too much". This only applies when it is a commercial entity making those spending decisions, so ALARP and that specific judicial interpretation of it is not the driving force for decisions made in the public sector when it affects health, life, and safety. That judicial interpretation of ALARP is not really the strategy we buy into in this country, it is just something that happened randomly because of one court case. This lack of a strategic view on safety/life/health expenditure badly distorts how we spend money with that aim, sucked into those bits of the economy where the judge says ALARP means this. If I was the government, I would repeal the law that created ALARP and in its place put a concept we can believe in and apply consistently.

And in the case of any specific large project that is proposed, the key to doing this well is deciding what it is for, and remembering what the thing is for. When it no longer makes sense for that idea, cancel it, don't soldier on. As Bengt Flyvbjerg, the great analyst of megaprojects that go wrong tells us, a consistent feature of the megaprojects that go wrong is when you revise what you think it is for as you go along. When that happens, your strategy is no longer consistent and you flounder, as you are no longer focused on achieving a clear strategic aim you believe in. And we agree that where we have now got to with HS2 is ridiculous. I would suggest we have got there because actually the story you tell is not a strategy that government really bought into and believed in at the time they pinned their colours to the HS2 mast, and considered justified the cost of it, which we all really knew were going to be a lot more than was first said. Good examples of realising you have reached a silly position and stopping are the Garden Bridge and the Metropolitan Line extension, which got cancelled even though a heap of money was tipped down each hole, even more in the latter case than the former, something TfL managed to keep quiet.

Meanwhile, some megaprojects that ended up costing a lot more than the costings that first justified them were the Channel Tunnel and the high speed railway from London to the portal. The cost overrun on the tunnel itself was substantially due to some new safety rules, that came in when the tunnel itself was nearly completed to the old standard, requiring a £5bn retrofit. Nasty trick, that, to play on the people who had to pay it, for it was taken from investors rather than the government. There were other issues, but that was the big one with the tunnel. HS1 cost about 3 times the original plans for the now usual British-can't-build-railways-at-sensible-cost-any-more reasons, and by then you couldn't steal from investors any more and the government stood that one. But we have them now and of course we use them a lot now we have them, though not as much as was originally forecast. (It doesn't help that post-Brexit immigration issues have substantially reduced their capacity, so that not even the disappointing-in-comparison-to-original-plans demand can't be carried at the moment). So are they worth what we ended up paying for them, in each case a lot more than they were intended to cost? Do they do at enough of what they were supposed to do to justify that money? There have been some nasty accidents, but did they need that £5bn safety upgrade? Did they actually achieve enough of what we thought they were for? There was a lot of noise at the time about economic development in Kent, which doesn't seem to have happened very much, but maybe that doesn't matter, maybe just getting from London to the continent and back is enough justification. The international trains never stopped at Ashford, though provision was expensively made for it, and now have stopped calling at Ebbsfleet. The domestic services were a kind of afterthought, and even those have underwhelmed in terms of economic development, though now much later there are at least to be some fairly big housing developments near Ebbsfleet station - but not much going on elsewhere. These are difficult questions and I really don't know the answer.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

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IvanV wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 12:37 pm A classic case was the introduction of motorways to Great Britain. The Treasury was against it, the economic case didn't stack up. But it was no white elephant, even remembering what it had cost. The M50 (Tewkesbury to Ross-on-Wye), we can see that is a white elephant.
For some interesting thoughts on the justification for the M50 - https://www.pathetic.org.uk/current/m50/
Some of the comments are interesting too
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by IvanV »

Gfamily wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 12:55 pm
IvanV wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 12:37 pm A classic case was the introduction of motorways to Great Britain. The Treasury was against it, the economic case didn't stack up. But it was no white elephant, even remembering what it had cost. The M50 (Tewkesbury to Ross-on-Wye), we can see that is a white elephant.
For some interesting thoughts on the justification for the M50 - https://www.pathetic.org.uk/current/m50/
Some of the comments are interesting too
It's a simple story. It's well known that original purpose of the M50 was to connect the Midlands to South Wales. It started construction before the M5/M4 route via Bristol and the Severn Bridge was complete. But as soon as it was, it became apparent the M50 was unnecessary, so they didn't finish it. Which they really should have realised in the first place.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by Sciolus »

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 9:44 am Thanks all for the discussion.

As a meta comment the thread seems to be a good example of the practical difficulties in implementing utilitarianism. While it may be an attractive principle, as this thread shows it quickly becomes very difficult to a) identify and reach a consensus on all the relevant consequences of an action, and b) to be able to compare those consequences with precision.

In theory the consequences of speed limit reduction should be an easier problem, as we can measure things like death and injury or average journey times. Other pressing social problems are much more difficult.
I think it shows the limitations of technocracy and the need for politicians (yes, it hurts me to say that). It's hard to capture the various impacts of a proposed measure, and very hard to compare incomparable impacts. We can try to monetise them so they can be compared, but that is highly uncertain (we haven't gone into the problems with Willingness To Pay, for instance), so ultimately we need an informed but subjective appraisal that considers how a measure fits into the totality of policy.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by FlammableFlower »

Evidence coming in: 20% drop in insurance claims for vehicle damage and a drop in road accident casualties to levels not seen since the pandemic...

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/poli ... p-29324687
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by IvanV »

FlammableFlower wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:08 pm Evidence coming in: 20% drop in insurance claims for vehicle damage and a drop in road accident casualties to levels not seen since the pandemic...

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/poli ... p-29324687
If cars must have someone walk in front of them waving a red flag, we would save considerably more casualties. There is a trade-off here, and on its own, an assessment of casualties reduced isn't assess whether the policy is proportionate. In any case, the argument isn't about reducing some roads to 20mph - it is clearly proportionate to reduce some, indeed many, roads to 20mph. The argument has been about whether it has been too widely applied.

The marked reduction is evidence of a bit more compliance with the lower speeds than certain anecdotal evidence that suggested it was widely ignored, and accidents hardly affected. We read 2022/23 Q4 had 218 fewer casualties than Q3. Q4 generally has more casualties, so 218 might be an underestimate of the average reduction per quarter. But if we take 218, then that is only 55% of the reduction required to get to the 20,000 in a decade it talks about. So, if that is representative, it might be a bit disappointing. But there might be good reasons why the first quarter isn't so marked, and we need to get a longer data series to understand better. I don't know if those are severity-adjusted casualty totals, etc, but severity adjustment would be a more meaningful target and statistic. A lot of the point of lower speeds is to reduce severity in accidents.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

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IvanV wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:33 pm Btw, the DfT has been commissioning broader 20mph studies on places where they have been implemented - many have been quietly implemented over the years, with relatively little fuss. Here's one from 2018. There's over 200 pages of it. At a glance, it notes large evidence gaps on the size and value of many of the impacts; no evidence of any casualty reductions in 20mph areas, though needs reassessing after being in place for 5 years; but general broad support for them among residents who live in them. So to the extent there are loud objections, maybe it is just the usual cake-ism, people expect to benefit from 20mph zones where they live while driving everywhere else without being restricted by them, just like people expect to benefit from large public spending while paying low taxes. Perhaps the Welsh could have implemented most of this in quieter ways without attracting so much attention.
Evidence. (Word doc, sorry: here's an online reader if you need it.)

TfL research, looked at the reduction in casualties between 1989 and 2013, with control groups where the 20 mph was not introduced. As best I can tell, the 20 mph zones were introduced borough-wide or at least across large swathes of boroughs, rather than hotspots, so regression to the mean shouldn't be an issue. Looks pretty compelling to me.
20 mph summary.png
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by IvanV »

Sciolus wrote: Fri Jun 13, 2025 7:04 pm TfL research, looked at the reduction in casualties between 1989 and 2013, with control groups where the 20 mph was not introduced. As best I can tell, the 20 mph zones were introduced borough-wide or at least across large swathes of boroughs, rather than hotspots, so regression to the mean shouldn't be an issue. Looks pretty compelling to me.
Thank you for this reference. As you say, looks pretty compelling. I haven't read it yet. My experience of 20mph speed limits in London is that they are targeted, not blanket.

As I always said, my argument with the Welsh wasn't over the general concept of 20mph in places with high pedestrian activity, it was the blanket approach to 20mph in all urban or quasi-urban places without thought over the proportionality in that location. That applied the 20mph disproportionately to extended sections of A-road where risk was low. For example, A-roads slowed to 20mph because they went through some scattered hamlet of about 5 properties, or something. In the most extreme case of disproportionality, I found myself driving along an urban by-pass restricted to 20mph - with no riparian property entrances, just properties backing onto it, and a footway separated by a very wide verge. Seemed that they have forgotten what a by-pass is. Thus I found A-road journeys slowed to 20mph for extended sections. While the average journey extension might be only a minute or something, that reflects that the average journey is very short. Longer distance freight, delivery operators, etc, were suffering long journey time extensions.

But driving in Wales recently, I found they had evolved towards the same more proportionate approach you find in other areas of Britain where they have thought about it. (And that's far from everywhere in rest of Britain. For example, I'm not referring to where I live, where 20mph speed limits are rare, and they have recently been Trumpishly increasing some speed limits.) So in Wales, I found that on A-roads going through hamlets, or urban approaches with scattered properties, or well-spaced village/town edge properties with good footways, where pedestrian risk would be low, there is now usually a 40 mph speed limit. The 20mph limit is reserved for places where there would be material pedestrian etc activity, risk, etc.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by El Pollo Diablo »

I don't really understand why anyone is surprised about reducing speeds to 20mph improving safety, to me it seems something of a truism. Obviously, if you were to go further and reduce speeds to 0 mph, then safety would be massively more improved.

The question is about whether the trade-off between that safety improvement and the economic impact plus the intangibles such as community happiness etc are worth it.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

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El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Jun 17, 2025 3:38 pm I don't really understand why anyone is surprised about reducing speeds to 20mph improving safety, to me it seems something of a truism. Obviously, if you were to go further and reduce speeds to 0 mph, then safety would be massively more improved.

The question is about whether the trade-off between that safety improvement and the economic impact plus the intangibles such as community happiness etc are worth it.
And you are of course totally right. But government won't do this, at least not as their headline argument. Probably because they know voters are impressed by emotional arguments rather than careful cost benefit arguments.

When you only look at the safety benefit side, as government tends to, the optimal speed limit is clearly 0 mph. So it is the convention of having speed limits ending in 0 and the fact that people need to move in the end that tends to mean that you get this very partial argument of "look how much safer it is at 20mph". Because "obviously" - as many people would see it - 10mph isn't going to happen - people have to move. So there is some kind of a very rough trade-off there, and a constraint coming from the coarseness of the speed limit scale. I often bemoan we don't have the greater graduation that comes from using km/h, but maybe in this case coarseness is an advantage. Though there are also faster roads, and this kind of argument makes it very unclear what suitable speed limits for those are.

I was actually quite impressed that the casualty reduction figures in the TfL study were so large. But, in comparison to the (initial) Welsh case, these were more carefully chosen locations for applying 20mph, and so there was potential for larger gain per whatever.

And there is, as various people have occasionally pointed out, a whole bunch of other potential benefits. Though those tend to be hard both to quantify and to monetise. So when you are selling this on the safety benefit, which does have straightforward quantification and established monetisation, then that's what will be compared in the first place in comparison to the mobility reduction.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

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IvanV wrote: Tue Jun 17, 2025 4:42 pmI often bemoan we don't have the greater graduation that comes from using km/h, but maybe in this case coarseness is an advantage.
As someone who lives in a location where we use km/h, we still use multiples of ten and the differentiation between speed limits is often odd. This is based on my experience in Perth, other locations may have different guidelines:

Very few places have speed limits of 30 or below. You may see them in car parks, and occasionally (certainly not universally) around schools at drop-off and pick-up time. Some areas where pedestrians are encouraged may see 20 km/h limits, but usually only for a single block.

40 km/h (25 mph) is the more usual speed limit around schools, in the centre of the city, and in roadworks. I think this means that construction workers are assumed to have the traffic sense of children!

Once you get out of the city centre the surrounding suburbs are usually 50 km/h (~30 mph). Some reduce it to 40 km/h if going through an area with lots of shops which attract pedestrians.

Once outside of the 1st shell of suburbs most roads are 60 km/h (~38 mph), even if residential. Major roads can become 70 km/h (45 mph), usually if there is no/little housing emptying directly onto the road and/or if there is separation barriers.

80 km/h (50 mph) roads are always separated and usually have no housing.

90 km/h is rarely used near the city but you see it in rural areas where the major road passes through a small town/hamlet. If it passes through a larger town then it'll slow to 60, 50 or even 40.

100 km/h (62 mph) is highways (motorways) close to the city where exits and entrances are more common.

110 km/h (~70 mph) is used on highways with larger gaps between exits, or on normal roads in rural areas where traffic is sparse. If you come up to a junction where you cross the other carriageway, or through a small rural town the speed limit reduces to 90 km/h.

These guidelines can mean that the speed limit changes frequently on a single road; there's one road from Perth to Midland (about ~15 km east of Perth) which the speed limit changes from 40 to 50 to 60 to 70 to 80, back to 60, up to 70, back to 60, down to 40, up to 50 then 70 and back to 50 and then 40 again, all without changing the road (12 speed limit changes in ~15 km!). Sometimes you can have too much graduation!
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

Post by nekomatic »

I CBA to find a link but I clearly understood that the change in urban speed limits in Wales was not ‘blanket’ but ‘default’, i.e. where previously roads would have been 30 unless judged they should be 20, now they are 20 unless judged they can be 30. Some roads that initially changed to 20 by this rule have since been reset to 30 after individual consideration. It seems to me (as a visitor not a resident) that this has worked OK.

I guess one reason we only have speed limits in multiples of 10 could be that analogue speedometers generally only have scale markings at multiples of 10, so it would be unreasonable to expect drivers to maintain a limit that they couldn’t unambiguously read off their speedo (the poor lambs).
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

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Martin_B wrote: Wed Jun 18, 2025 1:00 am
IvanV wrote: Tue Jun 17, 2025 4:42 pmI often bemoan we don't have the greater graduation that comes from using km/h, but maybe in this case coarseness is an advantage.
As someone who lives in a location where we use km/h, we still use multiples of ten and the differentiation between speed limits is often odd. This is based on my experience in Perth, other locations may have different guidelines...
In Italy, 50 km/h is the default urban limit but lots of smaller roads are limited to 30 km/h. There are "30 km/h zones" in certain areas in which there might be more pedestrians or whatever.

There are defaults of 70 km/h and 90 km/h for other cases but around here there are hardly any roads which aren't 50 km/h, even out of town.

The superstrada (a dual-carriageway A road) which goes to Milan is 100 km/h on the last bit near to Milan (used to be only the very last bit, but it's been extended), but 80 km/h on the first bit. Every does about 100 km/h the whole way anyway, apart from the last fast bit where there's a speed camera and people tend to slow down to about 70km/h when they go past it.

Motorways get 130 km/h, although the ring roads around Milan are usually 90 km/h.

The speeds which people actually drive at is of course another matter.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

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The The wiki entry is exactly right. What is meant by shared areas is that the pavement is on the same level as the road.

In the urban areas pretty much everyone adheres to the maximum speed. The Autopistas (motorways) are a different matter.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

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U.S. speed limits ending in 5 are just as common as those ending in 0. Anything between 25 and 70 is pretty normal. Less than 25 is rare. More than 70 is rare and only possible in some states.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

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bolo wrote: Wed Jun 18, 2025 2:41 pm U.S. speed limits ending in 5 are just as common as those ending in 0. Anything between 25 and 70 is pretty normal. Less than 25 is rare. More than 70 is rare and only possible in some states.
My impression is that ending in 5 is more common than ending in 0. I'd say that 30 is less common than 25 and 35 around here. 40 and 50 are rarer than 45, 55 is the default for dual carriageway and A-road equivalents, plus motorway equivalents in built up areas. 60 is pretty much nowhere, and some big highways are 65.

There's a push for more 20 mph zones in dense cities here as well. 15 mph isn't uncommon in airports, parking lots, etc.
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Re: How to make safety decisions - Wales urban 20mph

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dyqik wrote: Thu Jun 19, 2025 1:45 pm
bolo wrote: Wed Jun 18, 2025 2:41 pm U.S. speed limits ending in 5 are just as common as those ending in 0. Anything between 25 and 70 is pretty normal. Less than 25 is rare. More than 70 is rare and only possible in some states.
My impression is that ending in 5 is more common than ending in 0. I'd say that 30 is less common than 25 and 35 around here. 40 and 50 are rarer than 45, 55 is the default for dual carriageway and A-road equivalents, plus motorway equivalents in built up areas. 60 is pretty much nowhere, and some big highways are 65.

There's a push for more 20 mph zones in dense cities here as well. 15 mph isn't uncommon in airports, parking lots, etc.
(Eastern Massachusetts specific)
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