COVID-19

[shpalman]

The only people being tested for the virus here are those who show symptoms and have had contact with people known to have had it. This is because we just can't test everyone. Obviously if you only test people who have serious symptoms, then the rate at which the virus provokes serious symptoms is going to look much higher than it really is.

So we don't have much of an idea of how many of us have been incubating it for a week or so already, or how many of us didn't realise that the sniffles we had the other day was it.

The deaths here have mainly been people over 70 who were already in hospital for something serious.

But given that last week I was in a room with a guy who goes to the same sports club (but not playing the same sport) as the Italian "patient one" (we still don't know who patient zero was) I wouldn't be surprised at all if I had it.

[El Pollo Diablo]

The only people being tested for the virus here are those who show symptoms and have had contact with people known to have had it. This is because we just can't test everyone. Obviously if you only test people who have serious symptoms, then the rate at which the virus provokes serious symptoms is going to look much higher than it really is.

The death rates though are catching up with the infection rates, however. Death takes around 2 weeks or so after infection, and so of those known to be infected, the death rate is up at 6% or so when you account for the time lag. Once you then account for the unknown infections it's back to around 2% or so.

[shpalman]

Ok a new (to me anyway) piece of information is that the decision to take swabs only from those presenting symptoms comes from the results that 95% of the tests performed so far (more than 9400) came back negative (as of midday we were at less than 400 cases), and that contagion from asymptomatic carriers is considered much less likely.

https://tg24.sky.it/cronaca/2020/02/26/ ... atici.html

[shpalman]

... and I still don't understand why we aren't seeing more cases in the city of Milan, given that tourists who visited have taken it home with them.

[mikeh]

UK still doing rather well, in the grand scheme of things

Testing figures

As of today (26th February 2020), a total of 7,132 people have been tested: 7,119 have been confirmed negative, 13 have tested positive. 8 people have now been discharged from hospital.

[FlammableFlower]

So, some London firms with offices in Canary Wharf have been sending staff home as a precaution.
I'm organising our departmental Student Placement Conference that's on for the next two days - most are coming from the UK, but we've got a few coming from the EU (but the Netherlans and CERN). Today I had an email from a student asking if it was still going ahead as:

"they'd met up with some students in Paris this week"

Right... well...

1) Yes it's still on. You having a nice weekend on the continent doesn't suddenly mean there's potential COVID-19 heading our way and,

2) go and check the NHS guidelines... unless your mates have been in infected areas in China or South Korea or have been to those parts of northern Italy affected and are showing symptoms (under which circumstances you could make a case for self-isolating) there's no worry, but otherwise - stop panicking.

Yet.

[sTeamTraen]

e) people stupid enough to think they are going to win the lottery should be ten thousand times more certain they are going to die

One of the satire sites had a headline a while back, "Lottery customer worried about asteroid impact".

[shpalman]

This evening a "close female collaborator" of the governor of Lombardy has tested positive for the virus, so the governor will be self-isolating for a couple of weeks.

[Martin_B]

…

[Deleted for original reading failure]

[Herainestold]

But given that last week I was in a room with a guy who goes to the same sports club (but not playing the same sport) as the Italian "patient one" (we still don't know who patient zero was) I wouldn't be surprised at all if I had it.

Gosh. Hope you are okay.

[shpalman]

How did Italy's 'patient 1' infect 13 others?

[Woodchopper]

A woman working as a tour bus guide in Japan has tested positive for coronavirus for a second time, in what authorities say is the first such case.

The woman, in her 40s and a resident of Osaka in western Japan, tested positive on Wednesday after developing a sore throat and chest pains, the prefectural government said. She first tested positive on 29 January and was discharged from the hospital after recovering on 1 February, before testing negative on 6 February.

The health ministry confirmed the case was the first in Japan where a patient tested positive for coronavirus for a second time after being discharged from hospital, Japanese media said.

Though a first in Japan, cases of second positive tests have been reported in China.

[...]

“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” said Professor Philip Tierno at New York University’s school of medicine.

He said much remained unknown about the virus: “I’m not certain that this is not bi-phasic, like anthrax,” he said, meaning the disease might appear to go away before recurring.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... econd-time

It very concerning if the virus is in fact dormant after someone has tested negative, and it can flare up later. If that is a widespread phenomenon then new outbreaks could occur after its assumed that a region is clear of the disease.

[dccarm]

A girl (10yo) in my son's class has been sent home to self-isolate for two weeks. The reason? - she was at the rugby in Rome last weekend.

[Woodchopper]

A girl (10yo) in my son's class has been sent home to self-isolate for two weeks. The reason? - she was at the rugby in Rome last weekend.

Denmark's first case has just been confirmed, which is a man who was on a skiing holiday in Italy.

[headshot]

A girl (10yo) in my son's class has been sent home to self-isolate for two weeks. The reason? - she was at the rugby in Rome last weekend.

Denmark's first case has just been confirmed, which is a man who was on a skiing holiday in Italy.

Presumably not in Rome...

[Woodchopper]

According to the Guardian, there have been 139 cases in Iran, and 19 deaths.

That's a case fatality rate of 13.7%, which is very high. Suggests to me that there are a lot of unidentified cases. Which will make containment difficult.

[FlammableFlower]

I spoke too soon. One of the students got a call from their work placement to say a colleague has had to go for testing - a call to 111 says the student should self-isolate.

[OneOffDave]

A girl (10yo) in my son's class has been sent home to self-isolate for two weeks. The reason? - she was at the rugby in Rome last weekend.

I love how people are reading the advice and then just doing what they want. Schools and GP surgeries seem to be the worst.

[OneOffDave]

According to the Guardian, there have been 139 cases in Iran, and 19 deaths.

That's a case fatality rate of 13.7%, which is very high. Suggests to me that there are a lot of unidentified cases. Which will make containment difficult.

That definately sounds like there are many many more cases in the community. That CFR is almost an order of magnitude higher than everywhere else

[shpalman]

A girl (10yo) in my son's class has been sent home to self-isolate for two weeks. The reason? - she was at the rugby in Rome last weekend.

Denmark's first case has just been confirmed, which is a man who was on a skiing holiday in Italy.

Presumably not in Rome...

Not in Codogno either.

The domestic infection rate must be wildly underestimated here because otherwise it's weird how tourists catch it if the locals don't have it.

[Brightonian]

Aren't masks mainly meant to be worn by people showing symptoms to limit the spread of infected secretions? Medical personnel treating patients need high quality (N95?) well fitting masks replaced regularly, but the general population don't need that - is that not correct?

If you want to limit how much you touch your own face, wearing sunglasses and a large bandanna worm over the nose and mouth Saturday-afternoon Western style, tucked into the collar of your shirt or blouse would probably work.

You are correct. Masks show some usefulness when worn buy people who are ill and symptomatic, with properly fitted respirators for medical personnel. The general population do not benefit from wearing masks when out and about.

If you want to limit your chances of getting sick then:

• Learn how to wash your hands effectively from this NHS guide. https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/healthy-bo ... our-hands/
• Wash your hands frequently, especially before eating and after touching door handles or other hard surfaces that may harbour the virus.
• Use hand sanitiser with at least 60% alcohol if handwashing facilities are unavailable.
• Cough or sneeze into a tissue and immediately throw it away.
• If you do not have a tissue, cough/sneeze into your elbow.
• Practice touching your face less.
• Do not shake hands or kiss cheeks when greeting others - use an elbow-bump or avoid contact completely.
• Push lift buttons with a knuckle instead of a fingertip.

What do people think about these suggestions for what an employer could do if the situation worsens:

- Encourage hand washing - eg distribute hand sanitizer, put up notices reminding people.
- Prioritize washing door handles, elevator buttons etc.
- Discourage handshaking - eg via notices and leadership taking the lead.
- Remove sources of infection - eg shared bowls of fruit, nuts, chocolate etc.
- Postpone or cancel seminars, conferences or other large gatherings of people. Would require informing clients etc about changes to planned activities.
- Postpone or cancel international travel, especially to affected areas.
- Allow lengthy periods of remote working (eg at a home office) so as to allow people to avoid crowded areas such as stations, trains or buses.
- Anticipate that to a greater extent than usual, employees may be on sick leave for long periods, or may need to spend lengthy periods caring for others (will affect planned completion of work for clients etc).

Any you'd add, remove or edit?

As mentioned, they'd be needed if things got worse, I'm not suggesting that all are done tomorrow.

What about avoiding notes and coins (so use contactless etc. instead)? And using self-service tills at the supermarket? I'm doing these things now on the assumption that it would help, but I don't really know. Am thinking too of using supermarket delivery instead of visiting them.

[lpm]

As I said before, it will have a class impact - working people like supermarket delivery drivers will still be made to work, going from infected house to infected house. I'm going to be merrily working from home, but I'll still want my bins collected and electricity to stay on.

[Brightonian]

I've started using the FTSE 100 as a proxy for the virus spread. FTSE's down 3% today, so around 8% down since Monday morning.

[Vertigowooyay]

And using self-service tills at the supermarket? I'm doing these things now on the assumption that it would help, but I don't really know.

Using touchscreen self checkouts at the supermarket doesn't sound great. Like those touchscreen order points at fast food places - even under normal circumstances, do you really want to use one of them before you sit down to eat with your hands?

[Brightonian]

And using self-service tills at the supermarket? I'm doing these things now on the assumption that it would help, but I don't really know.

Using touchscreen self checkouts at the supermarket doesn't sound great. Like those touchscreen order points at fast food places - even under normal circumstances, do you really want to use one of them before you sit down to eat with your hands?

Yes, good point, even though I could use a knuckle or something, I'd be perhaps picking up nasties from three or four people instead of one cashier.

Edit: Dr John Campbell's just addressed this and things like cash here. tl;dr: cash and touchscreens can carry contamination. Use tissues.