COVID-19

[bmforre]

What does this mean?

Sorry Stephanie:

Looking at shpalman big cat avatar made me wonder if zoos and suchlike (stables?) take part in breeding and spreading this virus.

[shpalman]

What does this mean?

Sorry Stephanie:

Looking at shpalman big cat avatar made me wonder if zoos and suchlike (stables?) take part in breeding and spreading this virus.

No, they don't.

[plebian]

Trump's denialism might finish up costing him.

"Natural News" has been a Trump cheerleader since his election. Adams has turned on the "Trump administration" now since they are discouraging Americans from stocking up on emergency supplies that Adams just happens to sell.

Every cloud has a silver lining.

Colloidal silver lining Adams pockets

[plebian]

It says she is no longer allowed to self-isolate at home because her studio did not comply with the requirements for it. She's been transferred to a different location via ambulance. According to a county health spokesperson, the new location has good wifi so that she can continue to study and Netflix.

Netflix is a verb now?

For ages amongst the kids. Netflix and chill is a compound verb meaning to f.ck.

[dyqik]

The US has tested 472 people. And now stopped announcing new results.

Also, the mortality rate in the US is 12%, which suggests there's at least 6 times as many people with it than have been tested.

Or that US healthcare for those with the virus is 6 times worse than China's.

Or that USAians only present at hospital for screening once they are too sick not to.

The high price of healthcare in the USA compared to, well, pretty much anywhere else on the planet, means much Dr. Googling, self-medication, and only turning up at ER/A&E if you absolutely have to

Many of those in the US with it have been exposed via travel to China, and so probably aren't in the poorest sector of society. It's more that they just aren't testing people.

Also this goes exactly against the GHS index you mentioned over in the Brittle thread...

[dyqik]

I wonder what will happen with divorce rates. Imagine being stuck at home for weeks with a legally pair bonded partner. Christmas or 2 weeks holiday is bad enough for blazing rows.

Ha, this came up on twitter. Apparently, rich folk should be very worried

https://time.com/5793806/wealthy-rich-p ... ronavirus/

Wealthy couples who aren’t used to actually spending time together are in for trouble, according to Mitchell Moss, who studies urban policy and planning at New York University. “This is going to destroy the marriages of the rich,” said Moss. “All these husbands and wives who travel will now have to spend time with the person they’re married to.”

In the US, they probably already own more than one house, so can self-isolate at the lake, in the city apartment, the big house where the kids are, or the cabin in the mountains.

[lpm]

Poor employed couples spend even less time with each other? Very long shifts, a lot of evening/night work, people with multiple jobs?

The great illusion of a popular television program called "The Friends" was that the friends could spend a lot of time with each other. One of them worked as a chef, but still had every evening free. Another was a waitress who never seemed exhausted from her 12 hour minimal wage shift.

The real impact will be on couples where one person doesn't do any housework because of being far too busy with an Important Job and Career. Turns out that when said person is home all day with less to do, he or she still doesn't do any housework. And the other person will realise he is a selfish tw.t. Oops, I mean will realise he or she is a selfish tw.t.

[Martin_B]

The US has tested 472 people. And now stopped announcing new results.

Also, the mortality rate in the US is 12%, which suggests there's at least 6 times as many people with it than have been tested.

Or that US healthcare for those with the virus is 6 times worse than China's.

Or that USAians only present at hospital for screening once they are too sick not to.

The high price of healthcare in the USA compared to, well, pretty much anywhere else on the planet, means much Dr. Googling, self-medication, and only turning up at ER/A&E if you absolutely have to

Many of those in the US with it have been exposed via travel to China, and so probably aren't in the poorest sector of society. It's more that they just aren't testing people.

Also this goes exactly against the GHS index you mentioned over in the Brittle thread...

Pssst - it wasn't me who mentioned the GHS index - I've not posted in the Brittle thread

(ETA: It was Woodchopper, and I'd have to not shave for while to look like his avatar!)

[Opti]

Me and ddb spend nearly all of our time together. Have done for 'kin years. Used to run our own business, spent almost 40 years in each others company. We already self-isolate, except for close friends and family.
Weird f.cks. But we like each other.

Also, like shpallers, I was flu vaccinated. Now we got COVID-19 just down the road in Gib. f.ck, I was going to do a Morrisons run this week. Apparently it's their most profitable store in the business.

[dyqik]

Pssst - it wasn't me who mentioned the GHS index - I've not posted in the Brittle thread

(ETA: It was Woodchopper, and I'd have to not shave for while to look like his avatar!)

Sorry, pre-coffee brain. Woodchopper's name was standing out at me for some reason.

[shpalman]

Apparently some old guy with the virus escaped from Como hospital and went home to Bergamo in a taxi.

He's back in hospital now, as is the innocent taxi driver. I hope he leaves the meter running.

I'd facepalm except you're not supposed to do that now.

[shpalman]

Today's data point of 2024 infected people is well below the number expected (something like 2700) extrapolating the exponential growth of the past week or so.

So maybe the containment has actually been working.

Figure_1.png (29.44 KiB) Viewed 81168 times

[Tepid Water]

Or maybe we just haven’t identified the cases yet?

Let’s hope it’s not as bad as we fear.

Why have the number of cases in China stalled so much?

[Bewildered]

Today's data point of 2024 infected people is well below the number expected (something like 2700) extrapolating the exponential growth of the past week or so.

So maybe the containment has actually been working.

Figure_1.png

Interesting thanks. Did you make that graph yourself, where are you getting the data from ?

[shpalman]

The data is now coming from http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovoc ... menu=vuoto

... but the earlier days are from an analysis which someone at the politecnico did and sent around on the internal mailing list (in any case you can find those numbers on Wikipedia). And my boss happened to have a python script which implemented the SIR model, I'm not sure from where.

[tenchboy]

Idle thoughts twixt tea and toast...
What is the survival time of a/this virus after leaving its host/host material?
Does it stay viable after the pool of snot has dried on the door handle/shopping trolley?
If someone self-isolates and then spends that time to catch up on posting out all those books that they've sold on e-bay...
Sneezing while they're doing so...

[Woodchopper]

Idle thoughts twixt tea and toast...
What is the survival time of a/this virus after leaving its host/host material?
Does it stay viable after the pool of snot has dried on the door handle/shopping trolley?
If someone self-isolates and then spends that time to catch up on posting out all those books that they've sold on e-bay...
Sneezing while they're doing so...

I can't remember the source, but as far as I recall the advice was hours, possibly days under ideal circumstances. Books in the post are probably safe - likely spending time in a dry environment.

[tenchboy]

Idle thoughts twixt tea and toast...
What is the survival time of a/this virus after leaving its host/host material?
Does it stay viable after the pool of snot has dried on the door handle/shopping trolley?
If someone self-isolates and then spends that time to catch up on posting out all those books that they've sold on e-bay...
Sneezing while they're doing so...

I can't remember the source, but as far as I recall the advice was hours, possibly days under ideal circumstances. Books in the post are probably safe - likely spending time in a dry environment.

Cheers Woodman; just the same, maybe I'll wear some gardening gloves when I open it; and leave it on the windowsill in the sun shine for a day or two.
Sunshine.
Remember sunshine?
My eyes itch: am I next?

[RoMo]

Idle thoughts twixt tea and toast...
What is the survival time of a/this virus after leaving its host/host material?
Does it stay viable after the pool of snot has dried on the door handle/shopping trolley?
If someone self-isolates and then spends that time to catch up on posting out all those books that they've sold on e-bay...
Sneezing while they're doing so...

A recent article in JHI saying coronavirus can persist on environmental surfaces for for up to 9 days:

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection. ... 3/fulltext

[tenchboy]

Idle thoughts twixt tea and toast...
What is the survival time of a/this virus after leaving its host/host material?
Does it stay viable after the pool of snot has dried on the door handle/shopping trolley?
If someone self-isolates and then spends that time to catch up on posting out all those books that they've sold on e-bay...
Sneezing while they're doing so...

A recent article in JHI saying coronavirus can persist on environmental surfaces for for up to 9 days:

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection. ... 3/fulltext

We don't stand a chance, do we.
This is it; this is the big one: this is our Great Plague.

ETA. Context though: how does that compare to more run of the mill, less SAS type viri?

[Woodchopper]

Idle thoughts twixt tea and toast...
What is the survival time of a/this virus after leaving its host/host material?
Does it stay viable after the pool of snot has dried on the door handle/shopping trolley?
If someone self-isolates and then spends that time to catch up on posting out all those books that they've sold on e-bay...
Sneezing while they're doing so...

A recent article in JHI saying coronavirus can persist on environmental surfaces for for up to 9 days:

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection. ... 3/fulltext

Thanks for that.

[bmforre]

Coronavirus in Israel: Over 1,000 High School Students Quarantined

Infected teen attended soccer match in Tel Aviv, thousands of fans ordered to enter quarantine

■ 27 fifth-graders quarantined after homeroom teacher testes positive for the virus

More in Haaretz today

The paper also shows an interesting picture from recent voting in Israel:
Workers in full protective gear at a special polling station for voters quarantined for coronavirus, Jerusalem, March 2, 2020.

Nothing like that in US primaries yet?

[shpalman]

The data is now coming from http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovoc ... menu=vuoto

... but the earlier days are from an analysis which someone at the politecnico did and sent around on the internal mailing list (in any case you can find those numbers on Wikipedia). And my boss happened to have a python script which implemented the SIR model, I'm not sure from where.

Ok the number of active infections yesterday was actually 2263, from 2502 who ever tested positive minus 160 recoveries and 79 deaths.

This means yesterday's data point is a little bit less far below the exponential growth.

Figure_1.png (29.43 KiB) Viewed 80941 times

Here's the data so far:

Code: Select all

days	I	R
0	3	0
1	19	1
2	59	3
3	152	5
4	221	8
5	314	11
6	409	15
7	593	62
8	821	67
9	1049	79
10	1577	117
11	1835	201
12	2263	239

I means current active infections, R means recovered (or died). S is about 60 million minus I and R, the number of susceptible people, so that's not plotted.

[shpalman]

If I want to model this slowdown I could reduce the susceptible population to some number which isn't several orders of magnitude greater than the number of cases, i.e. 6000 instead of 60 million. But to get the same exponential increase in the first week or so I need to increase the contact parameter so R_0 is now 11.3.

Figure_1.png (36.15 KiB) Viewed 80936 times

Reducing the susceptible population fudges the idea of quarantine and travel restrictions, so that the virus can't actually reach the entire population of Italy.

It predicts that we'll have 2625 active infections by the end of today.

(ETA I think https://www.corriere.it/salute/malattie ... 09c8.shtml is a more comprehensive source of information, for example, that 25856 swabs have been taken).

[Bird on a Fire]

If I want to model this slowdown I could reduce the susceptible population to some number which isn't several orders of magnitude greater than the number of cases, i.e. 6000 instead of 60 million. But to get the same exponential increase in the first week or so I need to increase the contact parameter so R_0 is now 11.3.

Figure_1.png

Reducing the susceptible population fudges the idea of quarantine and travel restrictions, so that the virus can't actually reach the entire population of Italy.

It predicts that we'll have 2625 active infections by the end of today.

(ETA I think https://www.corriere.it/salute/malattie ... 09c8.shtml is a more comprehensive source of information, for example, that 25856 swabs have been taken).

As someone who is no stranger to this kind of ecological modelling, I wouldn't worry too much about points falling a little bit away from the line. This is partly because of measurement issues meaning that the number of cases is never precisely known, but mostly because the numbers you're using to generate those curves are not known precisely.

You desperately need some kind of sensitivity analysis. Try running a large number of scenarios where each parameter varies within a reasonable range, then plot the 95% CIs. Because IME nothing involving living organisms ever falls precisely onto a trend line, and by manipulating your equations to fit the most recent points you're risking overfitting.

I will bet a small sum of money that, if you use official estimates of R_0 and susceptible population, but include uncertainty in the modelling, you'll find that the points fall within the CIs.