Democratic Candidate 2020

[Bird on a Fire]

Black people in the USA consider the damage from smoking weed worse than the damage from imprisoning young people for decades to work as slaves? I'd be surprised if that part is true.

It's not for you and I to say. But rich white drug users are c.nts who knowingly spread murder and gang related crime in black communities, not giving a sh.t about the damage they do so long as they get some momentary pleasure. Smoking weed is a racist action, as well as a criminal action.

The impression I get from reading community activists from the Black Panthers onwards is that anger is more directed at the politicians who initially enacted prohibition as a deliberate act of racist suppression, those who continue to impose harsh penalties, and the police and justice system for enforcing it. I genuinely haven't seen anybody black say that smoking weed is racist, nor anybody blaming users for the current state of the law - have you?

[dyqik]

Black people in the USA consider the damage from smoking weed worse than the damage from imprisoning young people for decades to work as slaves? I'd be surprised if that part is true.

It's not for you and I to say. But rich white drug users are c.nts who knowingly spread murder and gang related crime in black communities, not giving a sh.t about the damage they do so long as they get some momentary pleasure. Smoking weed is a racist action, as well as a criminal action.

Here smoking weed gives money to small and medium in-state businesses who grow and produce pot in new hydroponic and open air farming facilities.

[dyqik]

Black people in the USA consider the damage from smoking weed worse than the damage from imprisoning young people for decades to work as slaves? I'd be surprised if that part is true.

It's a massive mistake to talk about black voters as a block. There are rural blacks, suburban sprawl blacks and inner city urban blacks. There are southern Bible belt blacks, mid-west blacks, etc. (not so many new England blacks). There are Baptist Christian blacks, Muslim blacks, etc.

However, unlike white voters who divide politically across parties, black voters nearly always vote Democratic. You have the same kinds of differences of opinion as you do among white voters (not necessarily the same opinions though), but all voting within the same party.

[Bird on a Fire]

Black people in the USA consider the damage from smoking weed worse than the damage from imprisoning young people for decades to work as slaves? I'd be surprised if that part is true.

It's a massive mistake to talk about black voters as a block. There are rural blacks, suburban sprawl blacks and inner city urban blacks. There are southern Bible belt blacks, mid-west blacks, etc. (not so many new England blacks). There are Baptist Christian blacks, Muslim blacks, etc.

However, unlike white voters who divide politically across parties, black voters nearly always vote Democratic. You have the same kinds of differences of opinion as you do among white voters (not necessarily the same opinions though), but all voting within the same party.

I'd expect that to be the case. But the "Biden beats Sanders amongst black people" thing keeps coming up - if true, it suggests at least that one or more of those blocks of black people is doing something different to my expectations. I'm just wondering if there's any polling on what Biden's attractiveness is, or what Sanders' problems are, specifically in that community.

[Bird on a Fire]

Black people in the USA consider the damage from smoking weed worse than the damage from imprisoning young people for decades to work as slaves? I'd be surprised if that part is true.

It's not for you and I to say. But rich white drug users are c.nts who knowingly spread murder and gang related crime in black communities, not giving a sh.t about the damage they do so long as they get some momentary pleasure. Smoking weed is a racist action, as well as a criminal action.

Here smoking weed gives money to small and medium in-state businesses who grow and produce pot in new hydroponic and open air farming facilities.

Indeed, I'd expect rich white pot smokers to be, and to have been, buying domestically-produced (by white people) weed throughout prohibition.

I think lpm has got confused between weed and cocaine - perhaps she'd like to be a Republican lawmaker

[dyqik]

Black people in the USA consider the damage from smoking weed worse than the damage from imprisoning young people for decades to work as slaves? I'd be surprised if that part is true.

It's a massive mistake to talk about black voters as a block. There are rural blacks, suburban sprawl blacks and inner city urban blacks. There are southern Bible belt blacks, mid-west blacks, etc. (not so many new England blacks). There are Baptist Christian blacks, Muslim blacks, etc.

However, unlike white voters who divide politically across parties, black voters nearly always vote Democratic. You have the same kinds of differences of opinion as you do among white voters (not necessarily the same opinions though), but all voting within the same party.

I'd expect that to be the case. But the "Biden beats Sanders amongst black people" thing keeps coming up - if true, it suggests at least that one or more of those blocks of black people is doing something different to my expectations. I'm just wondering if there's any polling on what Biden's attractiveness is, or what Sanders' problems are, specifically in that community.

I'd hazard guesses: 1) Biden has been seen and heard in their communities* for decades where Bernie is an outsider, and 2) Biden is staunch member of their party, the party that defended civil rights and which has been working in their communities for 50 years, where Bernie has been attacking it for decades. For the latter, Biden comes with endorsements from "their" politicians and well known figures, Bernie doesn't. Bernie is a relative newcomer to national political notability as a potential national establishment leader, remember.

* For those in Southern and Chicago-type urban/suburban sprawl areas which is a pretty large proportion of black voters

[lpm]

It's not for you and I to say. But rich white drug users are c.nts who knowingly spread murder and gang related crime in black communities, not giving a sh.t about the damage they do so long as they get some momentary pleasure. Smoking weed is a racist action, as well as a criminal action.

Here smoking weed gives money to small and medium in-state businesses who grow and produce pot in new hydroponic and open air farming facilities.

Indeed, I'd expect rich white pot smokers to be, and to have been, buying domestically-produced (by white people) weed throughout prohibition.

I think lpm has got confused between weed and cocaine - perhaps she'd like to be a Republican lawmaker ;)

Getting way off topic, but it's wrong to separate out weed and cocaine like they are different criminal networks (ignoring legalised production, obviously). We all agree the criminal side-effects of weed are less damaging than cocaine, but ignoring them is just entitled weed users creating a fantasy for themselves - as we all do when we damage others with our selfish acts.

[Woodchopper]

It's a massive mistake to talk about black voters as a block. There are rural blacks, suburban sprawl blacks and inner city urban blacks. There are southern Bible belt blacks, mid-west blacks, etc. (not so many new England blacks). There are Baptist Christian blacks, Muslim blacks, etc.

However, unlike white voters who divide politically across parties, black voters nearly always vote Democratic. You have the same kinds of differences of opinion as you do among white voters (not necessarily the same opinions though), but all voting within the same party.

I'd expect that to be the case. But the "Biden beats Sanders amongst black people" thing keeps coming up - if true, it suggests at least that one or more of those blocks of black people is doing something different to my expectations. I'm just wondering if there's any polling on what Biden's attractiveness is, or what Sanders' problems are, specifically in that community.

I'd hazard guesses: 1) Biden has been seen and heard in their communities* for decades where Bernie is an outsider, and 2) Biden is staunch member of their party, the party that defended civil rights and which has been working in their communities for 50 years, where Bernie has been attacking it for decades. For the latter, Biden comes with endorsements from "their" politicians and well known figures, Bernie doesn't. Bernie is a relative newcomer to national political notability as a potential national establishment leader, remember.

* For those in Southern and Chicago-type urban/suburban sprawl areas which is a pretty large proportion of black voters

There's some polling from January of "a random national sample of 1,088 non-Hispanic black adults age 18 and over", here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/ ... e_manual_2

Its possible to get round the paywall via incognito mode.

Commentary on the poll:

When second choices are combined with first choices, Biden stands at 64 percent, Sanders at 42 percent, Warren at 28 percent and Booker at 12 percent.

[...]

Age is the sharpest dividing line among black Democratic voters. Though Biden leads his rivals by more than 2 to 1 overall, he trails Sanders by 42 percent to 30 percent among black Democrats ages 18 to 34.

Sanders’s support falls to 16 percent among black Democrats ages 35 to 49, far lower than Biden’s 41 percent support in this group. Biden’s support strengthens among older Democrats, rising to 68 percent among those 65 and older.

[...]

Six in 10 black Democratic voters identify as moderate or conservative, and Biden gets 58 percent support among this group, compared with 14 percent for Sanders and 8 percent for Warren.

[...]

A majority of Democratic-leaning blacks (57 percent) say the most important thing they are looking for in a Democratic nominee is a likelihood of beating Trump. One-third say they want someone closest to them on issues, and 9 percent say they are looking for the candidate who has the strongest personal character. Biden leads on all of those.

On the question of which Democrat has the best chance to defeat Trump in November, Biden is cited by 53 percent of African American Democrats, compared with 18 percent who name Sanders. All the other candidates are in single digits. Biden has a large lead as well on the question of which Democrat would unite the country, cited by 43 percent of black Democrats compared with 19 percent for Sanders. The other candidates are in single digits.

[...]

Biden leads on other attributes beyond who is best able to defeat Trump, but by smaller margins. Nearly one-third (32 percent) say he would best handle issues important to black Americans, compared with 19 percent for Sanders and 14 percent for Booker.

[...]

One-third also say Biden has the strongest personal character, followed by Sanders at 20 percent and Warren at 10 percent.

Biden’s service as vice president under the country’s first black president also gives him entree to many black voters. Fifty-six percent of African American Democrats say that fact makes them more likely to support him for the 2020 nomination, and 61 percent say the next president should generally continue Obama’s policies.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

See also https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... rs-reason/

[Bird on a Fire]

Here smoking weed gives money to small and medium in-state businesses who grow and produce pot in new hydroponic and open air farming facilities.

Indeed, I'd expect rich white pot smokers to be, and to have been, buying domestically-produced (by white people) weed throughout prohibition.

I think lpm has got confused between weed and cocaine - perhaps she'd like to be a Republican lawmaker

Getting way off topic, but it's wrong to separate out weed and cocaine like they are different criminal networks (ignoring legalised production, obviously). We all agree the criminal side-effects of weed are less damaging than cocaine, but ignoring them is just entitled weed users creating a fantasy for themselves - as we all do when we damage others with our selfish acts.

They are different networks to some extent. About half of illegal weed in the USA was domestically produced, and I suspect much of that is sold without any large criminal organisations needing to be involved. And now that semi-legalised production in the biggest-producing states is creating an oversupply the quantity of illegal imports is down drastically.

Anecdotally, a lot of cannabis users know each other, buy from each other, and buy from friends of friends etc. It would certainly be possible for a cannabis user in the USA to have no involvement with e.g. cartels ( probably even more possible for them to believe they don't).

Most of what is illegally produced was grown in Mexico. This compares with 0% of cocaine being produced in North America, obviously.

Bear in mind my wife comes from north Mexico. She grew up in a small town a couple of hours from the border with Texas in proper cartel country, where nobody (to this day) will drive after dark. Like most people, she's had cousins and friends disappear. Nevertheless her social circle includes plenty of marijuana users of all ages - AFAICT nobody blames the individual user for the systemic issues.

Should I split this?

[lpm]

(split it if anyone cares enough to keep talking about it)

fucken kids still not votin 13% turnout 18-29 maybs try talkin like they tweet?

[dyqik]

(split it if anyone cares enough to keep talking about it)

fucken kids still not votin 13% turnout 18-29 maybs try talkin like they tweet?

The amount of material I received related to how to vote and when voting was precisely zero. There was a sign up about the voting day outside the library, but that's it.

[dyqik]

There's some polling from January of "a random national sample of 1,088 non-Hispanic black adults age 18 and over", here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/ ... e_manual_2

Its possible to get round the paywall via incognito mode.

Commentary on the poll:

When second choices are combined with first choices, Biden stands at 64 percent, Sanders at 42 percent, Warren at 28 percent and Booker at 12 percent.


On the question of which Democrat has the best chance to defeat Trump in November, Biden is cited by 53 percent of African American Democrats, compared with 18 percent who name Sanders. All the other candidates are in single digits. Biden has a large lead as well on the question of which Democrat would unite the country, cited by 43 percent of black Democrats compared with 19 percent for Sanders. The other candidates are in single digits.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

See also https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... rs-reason/

This one is critical to how people vote. It's also mostly a test of familiarity beyond the most basic name recognition, but not much beyond it. It does include media narrative about how Sanders is too far left, and how no woman can win in the US.

Bloomberg has been running heavily on ads that state that he will beat Trump, although that's not working by itself.

[Woodchopper]

There's some polling from January of "a random national sample of 1,088 non-Hispanic black adults age 18 and over", here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/ ... e_manual_2

Its possible to get round the paywall via incognito mode.

Commentary on the poll:

When second choices are combined with first choices, Biden stands at 64 percent, Sanders at 42 percent, Warren at 28 percent and Booker at 12 percent.


On the question of which Democrat has the best chance to defeat Trump in November, Biden is cited by 53 percent of African American Democrats, compared with 18 percent who name Sanders. All the other candidates are in single digits. Biden has a large lead as well on the question of which Democrat would unite the country, cited by 43 percent of black Democrats compared with 19 percent for Sanders. The other candidates are in single digits.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

See also https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... rs-reason/

This one is critical to how people vote. It's also mostly a test of familiarity beyond the most basic name recognition, but not much beyond it. It does include media narrative about how Sanders is too far left, and how no woman can win in the US.

Yes. I could also add that the people most in need of a Democrat in the White House are also those who may perceive that they have most to lose form a radical candidate who isn't able to beat Trump.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Can anyone find me a download of the county-by-county results in a helpful form, preferably excel?

[dyqik]

Can anyone find me a download of the county-by-county results in a helpful form, preferably excel?

Not yet, because the votes haven't all been counted yet.

[Fishnut]

This piece is really illuminating on why black voters, particularly older ones are supporting Biden. I found other articles echoing the same sentiment, but this one gave the most historical context. The TL:DR is that they want a democrat to win and they don't trust white voters to vote for a progressive.

While Sanders narrowly beat Biden for the black under-30 vote (38% to 36%), Biden beat Sanders significantly in every other age group.

...black people know exactly what they’re doing, and why. Joe Biden is the indictment older black folks have issued against white America. His support is buttressed by chunks of the black community who have determined that most white people are selfish and cannot be trusted to do the right thing. They believe if you make white people choose between their money and their morality—between candidates like Sanders or Elizabeth Warren (who somehow finished fifth in South Carolina, behind Pete Buttigieg) and candidates like Biden and Michael Bloomberg—they will choose their money every time and twice on Election Day...

So when you ask older black people what the white electorate, Democratic or Republican, are capable of, they remember. They remember that this country has spent the better part of 40 years lauding the racially destructive policies of Ronald Reagan. They remember that actual progressive choices, like Jackson and Edwards, were rejected by white Democrats. They remember that white people failed to turn on George W. Bush, despite his legacy of incompetence and torture, and instead reelected him. They remember that the majority of white people did not vote for the first black president, spent eight years attacking his every move, and then replaced him with the most small-minded bigot they could find, rejecting an immensely qualified white woman in the process.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Just to emphasise the point, here are the (current) Super Tuesday results at state level by the vote for Biden against the percentage of the state voting-age population which is black:

Biden.png (9.89 KiB) Viewed 5213 times

This trendline, at the very least, suggests that on average for every 5% points of the population which is black, this translates into 6-7% extra in terms of Biden's vote. Obviously much variability there however.

[Bewildered]

Black people in the USA consider the damage from smoking weed worse than the damage from imprisoning young people for decades to work as slaves? I'd be surprised if that part is true.

It's a massive mistake to talk about black voters as a block. There are rural blacks, suburban sprawl blacks and inner city urban blacks. There are southern Bible belt blacks, mid-west blacks, etc. (not so many new England blacks). There are Baptist Christian blacks, Muslim blacks, etc.

However, unlike white voters who divide politically across parties, black voters nearly always vote Democratic. You have the same kinds of differences of opinion as you do among white voters (not necessarily the same opinions though), but all voting within the same party.

I'd expect that to be the case. But the "Biden beats Sanders amongst black people" thing keeps coming up - if true, it suggests at least that one or more of those blocks of black people is doing something different to my expectations. I'm just wondering if there's any polling on what Biden's attractiveness is, or what Sanders' problems are, specifically in that community.

I’m not sure, but I feel like you are just not properly absorbing the implications of the last paragraph from dyqik. The "Biden beats Sanders amongst black people" thing is comparing Democrat primary voters right not how they would do with all voters?

Due to recent history and current toxic racism from republicans black voters skew disproprtionately towards Democrats. And when I say disproportionately I think that isn’t just compared to a model where white and black voters in the same proportions, but disproportionately to a model based on their opinions on issues including the ones you mention. So comparing all black voters and all white voters there may well be a preference amongst blacks towards the policy positions of sanders that you mentioned. However comparing all blacks who vote democrat vs all whites who vote Democrat, a much greater selection effect has been applied to the white voters and now more white democrat voters prefer those positions than black democrat voters.

I am just speculating though, maybe it can be confirmed or disproved by woodchoppers stats but I didn’t have the energy to check.


Edit: I say democrat voters most places but I assume its an even stronger when selecting fir people voting in Democrat primaries.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Here's a bubble plot of the previous chart with size based on state population, because why not

Biden bubble 2.png (42.34 KiB) Viewed 5202 times

[Woodchopper]

This piece is really illuminating on why black voters, particularly older ones are supporting Biden. I found other articles echoing the same sentiment, but this one gave the most historical context. The TL:DR is that they want a democrat to win and they don't trust white voters to vote for a progressive.

While Sanders narrowly beat Biden for the black under-30 vote (38% to 36%), Biden beat Sanders significantly in every other age group.

...black people know exactly what they’re doing, and why. Joe Biden is the indictment older black folks have issued against white America. His support is buttressed by chunks of the black community who have determined that most white people are selfish and cannot be trusted to do the right thing. They believe if you make white people choose between their money and their morality—between candidates like Sanders or Elizabeth Warren (who somehow finished fifth in South Carolina, behind Pete Buttigieg) and candidates like Biden and Michael Bloomberg—they will choose their money every time and twice on Election Day...

So when you ask older black people what the white electorate, Democratic or Republican, are capable of, they remember. They remember that this country has spent the better part of 40 years lauding the racially destructive policies of Ronald Reagan. They remember that actual progressive choices, like Jackson and Edwards, were rejected by white Democrats. They remember that white people failed to turn on George W. Bush, despite his legacy of incompetence and torture, and instead reelected him. They remember that the majority of white people did not vote for the first black president, spent eight years attacking his every move, and then replaced him with the most small-minded bigot they could find, rejecting an immensely qualified white woman in the process.

Yes, indeed. You can also combine that sentiment with the above mentioned longstanding contact between Biden and African American communities compared to Sanders comparative absence. You don't trust someone who appears to be too radical, and not very interested in you.

[Bird on a Fire]

Thanks for the links, woodchopper and Fishnut.

It does seem that "electability" is about all that Biden has going for him, beyond "not being a Republican", and no doubt this has been helped by its being the prevailing media narrative since the race began. The recent polling suggesting that Sanders and Biden are equally electable isn't enough to overcome that.

To me, it does raise the question of "elected to do what?", but I can understand vulnerable people wanting to play it safe. If Biden ends up with the nomination, lets hope the gamble pays off. Democrat voters stayed home in 2016 because they were turned off by Clinton, and in many respects Biden is cut from the same cloth.

Exciting times.

[bolo]

Can anyone find me a download of the county-by-county results in a helpful form, preferably excel?

Not yet, because the votes haven't all been counted yet.

Each state's results should be on the website of that state's Board of Elections. Formats will vary. See, for example, Virginia:

https://results.elections.virginia.gov/ ... Index.html

Not the helpful format you're looking for, however.

[Bird on a Fire]

Here's a bubble plot of the previous chart with size based on state population, because why not

Biden bubble.png

Anyone know what % overall of Democrat voters are black? I assume its a little over 20% (50% of the population are Demoract, 10% of total population are black but approx. none of them will be Republicans), which suggests Biden could get the nomination. However, I also think we're going to see a big coast-vs-"flyover" split again.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Soz, just changed the file to one with labels on.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Here's a bubble plot of the previous chart with size based on state population, because why not

Biden bubble.png

Anyone know what % overall of Democrat voters are black? I assume its a little over 20% (50% of the population are Demoract, 10% of total population are black but approx. none of them will be Republicans), which suggests Biden could get the nomination. However, I also think we're going to see a big coast-vs-"flyover" split again.

You can probably get your answer by looking here.