COVID-19

[lpm]

They choose 7 days instead of 14 on the grounds that 7 days covers the worst of the infectious period.

Madness. It's like 20 mph speed limits in towns in order to try to get speeds to 30 mph or less. Tell people they must isolate for 14 days and some will obey, some will cut a couple of days off the corner, some will ignore - but you get good compliance with the 7 day target, far better than if you tell people 7 days.

[mikeh]

It's not at all clear how statistics will be compiled and whether we will lose sight of what is happening on the ground. The death statistics won't lie - but come with a hell of a lag from infection date.

There will be (presumably) official numbers continuing to be released, but the likely focus will shift onto e.g. hospitalised patients, deaths, and other relatively easy measurables. From hereonin, increasingly. the daily count of confirmed case numbers won't be very important (it'll boil down to "today, there's... probably a lot more than yesterday. With definitely this many deaths and this many on the ICU").

Final numbers of UK (or wherever) cases will be done via modelled estimates. Much like during any flu season really, and especially during the swine flu pandemic. We have decent enough numbers on how many ended up in hospital, but numbers of community cases is always done via various modelling methods.

[Woodchopper]

Just been told by someone that Johnson made him “proud to be British” because Britain isn’t panicking like other countries are.

Seems to mistake a virus for the Nazis.

f.ck.

[lpm]

It's not at all clear how statistics will be compiled and whether we will lose sight of what is happening on the ground. The death statistics won't lie - but come with a hell of a lag from infection date.

There will be (presumably) official numbers continuing to be released, but the likely focus will shift onto e.g. hospitalised patients, deaths, and other relatively easy measurables. From hereonin, increasingly. the daily count of confirmed case numbers won't be very important (it'll boil down to "today, there's... probably a lot more than yesterday. With definitely this many deaths and this many on the ICU").

Final numbers of UK (or wherever) cases will be done via modelled estimates. Much like during any flu season really, and especially during the swine flu pandemic. We have decent enough numbers on how many ended up in hospital, but numbers of community cases is always done via various modelling methods.

But they need to be able to see the oncoming wave? The idea is that they'll strike hard with maximum measures at precisely the right moment to cut off the peak. If on a daily basis they can't see numbers, how can they react?

Or will the models be good enough to provide the answers as we go?

[mikeh]

CMO said in his talk there's a fair amount we know about the epidemiology (for example confident over death rates, demographics at high risk etc). Plus also the transmission in infected people.
(Key evidence gap in transmission in those without symptoms, that includes asymptomatic cases which I reckon are minimal, and that infectious period just before symptoms begin that was discussed a couple of pages back)

Between confirmed cases and modelling the epidemiology, that'll be how we're working out increases. For example, the estimates of the peak are for 10-12 weeks, there were couple of papers upthread that have predicted that, that's the evidence base. That's based on modelling as best we can at this point in time.
Widespread testing is intensive, requires a lot of staff, contact tracing etc, plus also the materials for the diagnostics (supply shortages everywhere), only so far that can be scaled up.

So, yes, intelligent guesswork going forward. Which, really, is what the entire response is all about anyway.

[mediocrity511]

There seems to be a lot of appeals to "the science". But is the science they are using available to the public? It makes me feel quite uneasy when they keep saying "but the science" as if it gives them a solid answer rather than a lot of data and a range of scenarios.

[mikeh]

I think the powers-that-be can be doing a better job of highlighting what they're using to support their decision-making. The modelling papers upthread, they're part of it.
The government pandemic planning is all part of it, for example see
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 125333.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 131040.pdf
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... s-strategy

They're using (of particular relevance here on the conversation around people's behaviour) data from what we found out in previous flu outbreaks/pandemics etc, see these two which have been highlighted by Prof Susan Michie who is a) excellent, and b) on the COVID advisory committe regarding the behavioural science side of things

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20630124
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 2/fulltext

It's drawn in from several places. It's relatively open access and thus accessible. But the devil of the detail is not well-communicated.

[raven]

Just been told by someone that Johnson made him “proud to be British” because Britain isn’t panicking like other countries are.

I don't think Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan are panicking. They're just being more proactive, earlier on.

(Taiwan seems to have only 50 cases. Still. This seems slightly miraculous, but there were people cleaning the walls of train stations in Taipei when I was there a couple of years ago....)

[mediocrity511]

Thankyou, that's really useful. I know it's not practical for them to cite papers in press conferences, but it just seemed all a bit "message from on high".

[mikeh]

Thankyou, that's really useful. I know it's not practical for them to cite papers in press conferences, but it just seemed all a bit "message from on high".

Agreed. But I also would like to see a DH website page that says "these are examples of the evidence we're using to make decisions..."

[sTeamTraen]

In two weeks I would have been going to a fun geeky conference in Atlanta that is held every 2 years. I was having my doubts about going, but the decision has now been made for me. Just two days ago KLM sent me an email "checklist for your trip to Atlanta" with no mention of Covid. I wonder what their next email is going to say, and if it's going to be easy to get the costs of my flight tickets back.

Now that the US government has made it impossible for KLM to allow you onto the plane, you should get an automatic refund.

Where no travel ban is in place, the airlines and the passengers are going to be in effect playing a game of chicken. The punters don't want to travel (conference cancelled, might get stuck abroad, want to look after people at home), and the airlines know that. If the punter cancels then the airline typically keeps their money (OK, with Ryanair at least you can rebook, but you have to do that at the moment you cancel, which doesn't help much). If the airline cancels the flight, all of the punters get their money back, and if the cancellation is close enough to departure, they also get compensation under EU261. But the airlines will also be under increasing pressure to cancel as flights start becoming 90%, 80%, 70% full, and hence uneconomical to operate, due to a drying-up of new bookings. So they want to find ways for it to be the punter, rather than themselves or force majeure in the form of government action, that initiates the cancellation.

[MartinDurkin]

Now that the US government has made it impossible for KLM to allow you onto the plane, you should get an automatic refund.

Where no travel ban is in place, the airlines and the passengers are going to be in effect playing a game of chicken. The punters don't want to travel (conference cancelled, might get stuck abroad, want to look after people at home), and the airlines know that. If the punter cancels then the airline typically keeps their money (OK, with Ryanair at least you can rebook, but you have to do that at the moment you cancel, which doesn't help much). If the airline cancels the flight, all of the punters get their money back, and if the cancellation is close enough to departure, they also get compensation under EU261. But the airlines will also be under increasing pressure to cancel as flights start becoming 90%, 80%, 70% full, and hence uneconomical to operate, due to a drying-up of new bookings. So they want to find ways for it to be the punter, rather than themselves or force majeure in the form of government action, that initiates the cancellation.

To be fair to Ryanair they credited my flight and car hire back to my card within 24 hours of cancelling my flight to Bergamo and this was on 3rd March before any lockdown was in place.

[Woodchopper]

Just been told by someone that Johnson made him “proud to be British” because Britain isn’t panicking like other countries are.

I don't think Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan are panicking. They're just being more proactive, earlier on.

(Taiwan seems to have only 50 cases. Still. This seems slightly miraculous, but there were people cleaning the walls of train stations in Taipei when I was there a couple of years ago....)

Of course.

I think this is what he is after: https://youtu.be/gGkKFick8E8

I’ve seen similar on Bookface, people writing that they are relieved that Johnson took a much more relaxed attitude than other leaders. Makes them feel reassured that it’ll all be alright.

[bjn]

So the building my offices are in have decided to refurbish half the bath rooms and kitchens in the building for the next two weeks. Meaning we now have to walk through 6 sets of doors to get to the nearest sink where we can wash our hands. The isopropyl hand wash we've ordered over a week ago hasn't arrived yet either.

We're letting people work from home now.

[discovolante]

I just found a limited amount of 57.6% ethanol hand sanitizer that I thought I'd used up/lost. Is it worth bothering with? I'm not going to use it as a hand washing replacement.

[bob sterman]

Just been told by someone that Johnson made him “proud to be British” because Britain isn’t panicking like other countries are.

I don't think Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan are panicking. They're just being more proactive, earlier on.

(Taiwan seems to have only 50 cases. Still. This seems slightly miraculous, but there were people cleaning the walls of train stations in Taipei when I was there a couple of years ago....)

So is the strategy “cocooning” vulnerable patients while the general population attains “herd immunity"????

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/herd-im ... ert-peston

If so, then this is quite a gamble - they'll need cocooning for months - and it's all based on the assumption that it's possible to acquire lasting immunity to the virus. Plus thousands of non-vulnerable people will die (e.g. with a fatality rate of 0.2% in the non-vulnerable groups).

Right now I think I'd rather be in Singapore.

Instead of building hospitals - apparently Number 10 is focused on building digital apps to prevent people "overwhelming 111".

[lpm]

Arteta, who tells men in north London how to kick a ball.

The head of BT.

A govt minister.

There seems to be far too many famous people for the headline number.

[dyqik]

Arteta, who tells men in north London how to kick a ball.

The head of BT.

A govt minister.

There seems to be far too many famous people for the headline number.

If you assume that they have far better access to tests...

[tenchboy]

Don't know if it helps anyone, but disposable latex gloves are easily* available from builder's/plumber's merchants Wickes, Jewsons Covers Coombers etc.
And no doubt other places too.
Might be handy for those of you forced to use door-handles, tube stations, supermarket trolleys & baskets etc, even if only on the journey to and fro.
Don't all rush at once though eh?

*unless I missed that bit of news and ev'one is using them anyway

[bob sterman]

Arteta, who tells men in north London how to kick a ball.

The head of BT.

A govt minister.

There seems to be far too many famous people for the headline number.

Indeed - it could point to there actually being a much larger number of infected people out their in the population with mild symptoms - which would be good news right? Would point to a lower CFR.

Or could some tests be false positives? Which would be bad - i.e. high CFR for real cases.

[bob sterman]

Deleted duplicate

[Bird on a Fire]

Now you mention it, I've been feeling a sub par for a few days, and my eyes have been really dry.

No cases reported close to me, and I've hardly left the house lately, so it's probably something else.

[headshot]

Now you mention it, I've been feeling a sub par for a few days, and my eyes have been really dry.

No cases reported close to me, and I've hardly left the house lately, so it's probably something else.

Me too, since transiting through Frankfurt Airport.

Sore throat and generally feeling a bit weird, but no lung problems.

Probably just something regular though.

[Brightonian]

Don't know if it helps anyone, but disposable latex gloves are easily* available from builder's/plumber's merchants Wickes, Jewsons Covers Coombers etc.
And no doubt other places too.
Might be handy for those of you forced to use door-handles, tube stations, supermarket trolleys & baskets etc, even if only on the journey to and fro.
Don't all rush at once though eh?

*unless I missed that bit of news and ev'one is using them anyway

I got a couple of boxes (100 per box?) at a supermarket a few days ago. Not used any as yet, but will if necessary as an alternative to hand sanitiser gel bottles.

I have been unable to get hold of any hand sanitiser gel for at least a month. Is that the same with everyone, or am I just unlucky? I continually pop in to supermarkets and chemists but they never have any. I have a couple of small bottles I found at the bottoms of bags from ages ago but that's all.

[Pedantica]

Previous pandemics have gone in waves. Perhaps they're trying to prevent the waves.

Tonight's press conference was pretty sobering.

The CSO specifically said we need to start social distancing measures at the last time its feasible to start. That feels intuitively wrong which makes me think my intuition is off. I'm missing something. I think it might be the this:

Lot of us are assuming that China/Japan/South Korea are managing well. But what if they're just managing well in the short term but storing up problems for later. China in particular has used extreme measures - travel restrictions on most of the population with a whole province where most people aren't allowed to leave their homes at all (1 person per family allowed to leave for 2 hours once a week to collect supplies). They can't keep that up forever and they have millions of people with no resistance sitting in their homes. They've bought time to improve hospital facilities and mass produce testing kits. But if a viable vaccine is 15-24 months away there is a long way to go. And as we've seen from every country in Europe you only need a few cases to spark a new exponential wave.

I think a lot of people are thinking we're going to be over the peak quite quickly. What if in a years time it's still worse than it is today. That's a long time for serious social distancing measures. With the potential to crash the economy in ways that have a knock on negative impact on health.

There's also some counter intuitive comments around closing borders and stopping mass events. That it makes a marginal difference (I think the CSO said they thought stopping flights from China would have caused a delay of about 1 day). And that actually the main focus is on mass producing testing kits not trying to close borders or stop specific points of transmission (apart from the general "whole population" delaying tactics like the handwashing mantra).