Very interesting review on closing schools during pandemics. Lots of interesting case studies from different countries in different situations. Not all applicable to the here and now, of course.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 8/fulltext
(I think it's open access)
It's all very interesting (if you're dull, like me), but if you're going to scan just a bit of it, start at 'Social and economic effects of school closure' and go through the subsequent few paras. Lots to think about in there, for example, it's very expensive
They also estimated that the intervention would cost between £0·2 billion and £1·2 billion per week, with the total cost of a 12-week school closure in the range 0·2–1·0% of gross domestic product
assuming 2·5 person days per week time loss for affected households and 5 days per week for teachers during school closure, they estimated a high economic cost of school closure (about US$2·7 million per 1000 population or 6% of GDP) and that strategies involving school closure would be between 14 and 21 times as costly as intervention strategies with antiviral drugs or prevaccination alone.
Interesting variation between urban and rural impacts
A survey was done to assess how families responded to the school closure.23 In this rural area where more than 50% of households have at least one adult that does not work outside the home or can work from home, the intervention caused little disruption, with only 10% of the households reporting having to make special childcare arrangements. Of course, the outcome would likely have been different if the proportion of working parents were as high as it is in many urban settings. Also there will almost certainly be differences in how parents respond to school closure lasting 1–2 weeks versus the 2–3 months that could be needed with proactive closure (panel 1) in a pandemic.
In any high-level intervention like this, often the vulnerable people are the most affected
In many industrialised countries, social programmes targeting underprivileged children rely on school facilities. For example, in 2004 in the USA, the national school lunch programme and the school breakfast programme delivered daily meals to 29·0 million and 8·9 million children, respectively; half of the lunches served were free and an additional 10% were served at a reduced price.20 Closing schools without preparation would interrupt those programmes, with adverse consequences for vulnerable children and families
Berkman also discusses the risks associated with so-called self-care, defined as leaving a child in his or her own care or in the care of a sibling younger than 13 years old.20 Self-care has been associated with risk behaviours including increased adverse peer pressure, underage drinking, and drug use.
And we talked upthread a little bit about impact on NHS workforce if schools closed
A survey of over 5000 hospital doctors and nurses by the UK Department of Health found that 77% of respondents were women (78% of UK doctors and nurses are women), 50% of respondents had a dependent child under 16, and 21% of respondents reported they would likely be absent from work if schools closed during a pandemic.
This is such an interesting paper. But to summarise, you shouldn't close schools lightly, just because some sections of the press are demanding you DO SOMETHING NOW. You make a decision to do that at the best possible time, and for as short a time as possible.
