COVID-19

[headshot]

From Mike Galsworthy:
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1MnGnQyoRPyKO

Short version; Government have f.cked up because they used the wrong viral model and are backtracking wildly.

Discussed at the top of the previous page by mikeh.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=747&start=1525

[dyqik]

Are you ready for Theranos and the owners/funders of WeWork to make an appearance in this?

A patent troll firm backed by SoftBank is using Theranos patents to seek a court injunction blocking at least one version Covid-19 testing in the US as they claim it violates the patents.

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200 ... ents.shtml

[EACLucifer]

We really do need a policy of sorting intellectual property issues out afterwards/

Not totally abandoning the concept - if people come up with stuff that helps, they should be rewarded for doing so - but wherever possible, opening everything up and sorting out who gets what when it can't slow down our response to this crisis.

[OneOffDave]

I really don't understand your point. Unless we get more beds, we are going to be treating people in tents with no running water or heating. That is the path we are locked into. This first April-June wave could easily peak at 50,000 critical cases. It's either accept Grade C beds now, or hold out waiting for the ideal Grade A beds and then watch the army breaking into the Bensons warehouse and commandeering all their mattresses.

We can't keep thinking in old United Kingdom terms, about sophisticated hospitals with ideal beds and fully trained ICU nurses and the best ventilators ever made, all efficiently acquired. Policy makers must adjust fast to Pandemic Kingdom needs - substandard beds, new nurses trained to deal with only a single task for a single disease, ventilators that don't meet regulations and have a higher breakdown rate.

Do you know in my 15 years of emergency planning experience I'd never thought of any of this!

It's not about ideal beds, it's about beds that won't cause people actual harm. There will be ceilings of care, there will be people who can't be saved, there will be issues but half-arsed solutions will make things worse rather than better. It's no good putting people into settings that will result in then surviving corona virus but dying months later of something that was done to them during their 'care'. There are plans for staff/patient ratios in ICUs etc to be varied and non-ICU staff to work under supervision of specialised staff.

Which specific task will these "single use nurses" be used for?

I suggest you actually read all the existing pandemic planning guidance

[bjn]

We really do need a policy of sorting intellectual property issues out afterwards/

Not totally abandoning the concept - if people come up with stuff that helps, they should be rewarded for doing so - but wherever possible, opening everything up and sorting out who gets what when it can't slow down our response to this crisis.

But patent trolls still arses that interfere with people coming up with stuff that helps people. May these ones burn in the Pastafarian equivalent of Hell for this.

[Bird on a Fire]

OK, serious question. How hard would it be to knock up a crude but serviceable ventilator? When I was at college we did this sort of thing for water pumps and the like that could be knocked up out of wood, piping and corrugated iron. I'm not talking an all singing and dancing machine that goes beep, but just enough to get by safely. In our village we have all sorts of practical people who have access to lathes, milling machines,3D printers and the like. Get a community design for one and small groups could make millions of them.

I have come across this - the Pandemic Ventilator Project https://panvent.blogspot.com/

Seems like a team of engineer-types are working together on this already - could be a good place to start?

[greyspoke]

We really do need a policy of sorting intellectual property issues out afterwards/

Not totally abandoning the concept - if people come up with stuff that helps, they should be rewarded for doing so - but wherever possible, opening everything up and sorting out who gets what when it can't slow down our response to this crisis.

Well there already is a principle of law in the UK that an injunction will not be granted in a patent action if there would be an effect on health. (This is under the court's equitable jurisdiction, injunctions being an equitable remedy.) So effectively just what you said, sorting it out afterwards, that is to say, restricting the arguments to the compensation side of things, not the avilability side of things.

[dyqik]

We really do need a policy of sorting intellectual property issues out afterwards/

Not totally abandoning the concept - if people come up with stuff that helps, they should be rewarded for doing so - but wherever possible, opening everything up and sorting out who gets what when it can't slow down our response to this crisis.

Well there already is a principle of law in the UK that an injunction will not be granted in a patent action if there would be an effect on health. (This is under the court's equitable jurisdiction, injunctions being an equitable remedy.) So effectively just what you said, sorting it out afterwards, that is to say, restricting the arguments to the compensation side of things, not the avilability side of things.

Although the possibility of having to pay compensation and the associated financial liability might make it uneconomic for the producer of tests to keep doing so, and so they might stop anyway.

[Pishwish]

OK, serious question. How hard would it be to knock up a crude but serviceable ventilator? When I was at college we did this sort of thing for water pumps and the like that could be knocked up out of wood, piping and corrugated iron. I'm not talking an all singing and dancing machine that goes beep, but just enough to get by safely. In our village we have all sorts of practical people who have access to lathes, milling machines,3D printers and the like. Get a community design for one and small groups could make millions of them.

I have come across this - the Pandemic Ventilator Project https://panvent.blogspot.com/

Seems like a team of engineer-types are working together on this already - could be a good place to start?

I posted a few links in Nerd lab. It should be noted that it is very easy to do harm with such devices and with 3-D printing in particular (biocompatibility).

[Bird on a Fire]

OK, serious question. How hard would it be to knock up a crude but serviceable ventilator? When I was at college we did this sort of thing for water pumps and the like that could be knocked up out of wood, piping and corrugated iron. I'm not talking an all singing and dancing machine that goes beep, but just enough to get by safely. In our village we have all sorts of practical people who have access to lathes, milling machines,3D printers and the like. Get a community design for one and small groups could make millions of them.

I have come across this - the Pandemic Ventilator Project https://panvent.blogspot.com/

Seems like a team of engineer-types are working together on this already - could be a good place to start?

I posted a few links in Nerd lab. It should be noted that it is very easy to do harm with such devices and with 3-D printing in particular (biocompatibility).

Thanks - I'll add the link over there too.

[shpalman]

Meanwhile, in France you need to fill out, sign and carry one of these if travelling outdoors.

What do you do if you don't have a printer at home?

You can use a handwritten version following the same format.

Here the forces of order will also give you a blank form to fill in when they stop you, if necessary.

Apparently there is also an app.

[Bird on a Fire]

President and Prime Minister of Portugal are meeting tomorrow evening to discuss imposing a state of emergency here. They're also looking into how to close the border with Spain.

I'm reassured by that French form that leaving the house for exercise is still ok. Sounds like I'll be able to do some birdwatching (which necessarily involves avoiding people, so will be easy to do responsibly).

[greyspoke]

We really do need a policy of sorting intellectual property issues out afterwards/

Not totally abandoning the concept - if people come up with stuff that helps, they should be rewarded for doing so - but wherever possible, opening everything up and sorting out who gets what when it can't slow down our response to this crisis.

Well there already is a principle of law in the UK that an injunction will not be granted in a patent action if there would be an effect on health. (This is under the court's equitable jurisdiction, injunctions being an equitable remedy.) So effectively just what you said, sorting it out afterwards, that is to say, restricting the arguments to the compensation side of things, not the avilability side of things.

Although the possibility of having to pay compensation and the associated financial liability might make it uneconomic for the producer of tests to keep doing so, and so they might stop anyway.

Indeed. There is also the principle of "Crown use", which can be looked at as the Gov taking over that liability and risk.
And of course, "presence of litigation" by no means equates to "likelihood of a particular remedy".

[Bird on a Fire]

Portugal: 448 cases, of which 20% are healthcare workers. This does not bode well.

Three recoveries. One death.

Airports and border still open on the mainland (Azores and Madeira are quarantined).

[dyqik]

Well there already is a principle of law in the UK that an injunction will not be granted in a patent action if there would be an effect on health. (This is under the court's equitable jurisdiction, injunctions being an equitable remedy.) So effectively just what you said, sorting it out afterwards, that is to say, restricting the arguments to the compensation side of things, not the avilability side of things.

Although the possibility of having to pay compensation and the associated financial liability might make it uneconomic for the producer of tests to keep doing so, and so they might stop anyway.

Indeed. There is also the principle of "Crown use", which can be looked at as the Gov taking over that liability and risk.
And of course, "presence of litigation" by no means equates to "likelihood of a particular remedy".

This is in the US, so Crown Use definitely doesn't apply.

[greyspoke]

...
This is in the US, so Crown Use definitely doesn't apply.

I am no longer able to look up similar provisoins easily, but I would be somewhat surprised if there was nothing roughly equivalent.

And of course in the UK patent trolling has never been so much of an issue because of the different costs regime for litigation.

[Martin Y]

Portugal: 448 cases, of which 20% are healthcare workers. This does not bode well.

On the other hand, in a couple of weeks that 20% who are healthcare workers will be the beginning of a valuable resource.

[Bird on a Fire]

Portugal: 448 cases, of which 20% are healthcare workers. This does not bode well.

On the other hand, in a couple of weeks that 20% who are healthcare workers will be the beginning of a valuable resource.

That's true. I also hope that protocols have changed a bit in the last few days, now that the government here has admitted that we're in nationwide exponential growth rather than just a few local pockets of outbreaks.

[shpalman]

A doctor in the Bergamo region - which is really being hit hard right now - estimates that since swabs are only being performed on serious symptomatic cases, there might be an underestimate of a factor of 5 of how many cases there really are. But still trying to emphasise that anyone who would benefit from care is getting it, while their health facilities are really at the limit.

What to do with this information? Well, 80% is a bit outside the range of 50-75% estimated above, but given how low the official numbers are from Milan compared to some of these small towns (less than 2000 cases in Milan, population more than 3 million, compared to 3760 cases in Bergamo, population 1.1 million, or Lodi with 1362 cases out of a population of 220,000) there are probably lots of people with the virus who don't know it and may never know it.

The advice doesn't change though: stay at home unless necessary, and when out, maintain your distance from other people.

[raven]

Los Angeles is, I think, going with a moratorium on evictions.

We could do with that. Likewise, people need to access benefits instantly, and with no requirement to seek work.

One minor but perhaps important one I'd like to see is a suspension of MOT rules

All good ideas - especially instant access to benefits; Jess Phillips asked about that in the House today, as iirc her brother is self-employed,self-isolating, and has to wait to get money.

Bugger. Should probably check when our MOT is due.

I've worked out the UK strategy. Confuse the bejesus out of everyone. Use language that has the widest possible number of interpretations.

The gov.uk pages are many and too wordy, which doesn't help. (Coincidentally I was looking up literacy last week, average reading age in the UK is something like 11...) NHS ones are much clearer and simpler; NHSInform -the Scottish version - in particular.

Also, Boris Johnson yesterday said that the doubling was every five days, which is utter sh.t - it's every 2.7 days. Why is he talking such bollocks?

So we don't worry our pretty little heads over it, I assume. The most worrying thing in that paper from Imperial is the table that gives % hospitalised by age, and the % of those needing critical care. For those over 80 that's 27.3% & 70.9% respectively, so about one in five of them needing ventilation if I've interpreted that right.

[lpm]

A doctor in the Bergamo region - which is really being hit hard right now - estimates that since swabs are only being performed on serious symptomatic cases, there might be an underestimate of a factor of 5 of how many cases there really are. But still trying to emphasise that anyone who would benefit from care is getting it, while their health facilities are really at the limit.

What to do with this information? Well, 80% is a bit outside the range of 50-75% estimated above, but given how low the official numbers are from Milan compared to some of these small towns (less than 2000 cases in Milan, population more than 3 million, compared to 3760 cases in Bergamo, population 1.1 million, or Lodi with 1362 cases out of a population of 220,000) there are probably lots of people with the virus who don't know it and may never know it.

The advice doesn't change though: stay at home unless necessary, and when out, maintain your distance from other people.

On twitter, people are saying 1 death equates to 400 cases currently - based on the lags, the CFR and the current point in the exponential curve.

UK 55 deaths implies 22,000 cases. Seems about right - was estimated at 5,000 to 10,000 a few days ago.

[shpalman]

Meanwhile, in France you need to fill out, sign and carry one of these if travelling outdoors.

In Italy there's something similar; I printed one of the forms, filled in my details, and scanned and printed a few copies of that. I think you can fill in the form on the spot when they stop you but this saves time and effort. I haven't been stopped yet because I haven't been out of town.

There's a new version of the form today anyway; now you also officially declare that you haven't been ordered to quarantine yourself.

[JellyandJackson]

CofE news: services suspended. About bl..dy time too.

[shpalman]

I hope that the weird little church my mum and sister go to will also shut down.

[Gentleman Jim]

I wager that the government will announce that schools will begin shutting, w/c 30th March