COVID-19

[El Pollo Diablo]

Today's numbers aren't right. The number of tests has dropped to its lowest number in a week at a time when things should be ramping up. We had 8,400 tests yesterday and less than 2,400 today.

But the new positives are still high. The test positive ratio has gone from around 7% to around 30%. And the deaths are odd, too - PHE said that English deaths had risen by 39, but today's count has only gone up by 33.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=drivesdk

[Little waster]

Today's numbers aren't right. The number of tests has dropped to its lowest number in a week at a time when things should be ramping up. We had 8,400 tests yesterday and less than 2,400 today.

But the new positives are still high. The test positive ratio has gone from around 7% to around 30%. And the deaths are odd, too - PHE said that English deaths had risen by 39, but today's count has only gone up by 33.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=drivesdk

More focused testing?

[badger]

I would just like to say that, contrary to any earlier statements, I'm now thankful that Boris is my Prime Minister.

I have just watched the Trump "you're a terrible reporter" clip. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... over-fears

Normal service will resume shortly.

[lpm]

Today's numbers aren't right. The number of tests has dropped to its lowest number in a week at a time when things should be ramping up. We had 8,400 tests yesterday and less than 2,400 today.

But the new positives are still high. The test positive ratio has gone from around 7% to around 30%. And the deaths are odd, too - PHE said that English deaths had risen by 39, but today's count has only gone up by 33.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=drivesdk

More focused testing?

There's often confusion between UK and England numbers from journalists. Wales, Scotland and NI announce at different times.

The end of testing obviously means testing and % positive stats are meaningless. Only hospital admissions are tested, probably not even all of those.

[lpm]

Interesting article arguing that one needs to suppress the epidemic and get R₀ below 1 asp.

Medium (2020-03-19): Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance - What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time

Worth a quick read.

I like the clarity of writing. But it appears his knowledge of the science isn't his strength, his writing ability is what gets it widely read.

I like his "hammer and dance" analogy. But for the rest I prefer my Covid-1% and Covid-4% analogy. Hammer down on Covid-4%, then try to dance with Covid-1%.

[raven]

Or to have his bl..dy dad immediately contradict the advice.

How many journalists have been sent out to try and get a picture of Stanley in the pub tonight.

Probably about as many as get sent out to stand on quaysides when there's a massive storm. Eejits the lot of them. Well, more so their bosses really, who seem to think veiwers need pictures of everything.

@badger - Yeah, I just saw that. Boris is occasionally cringeworthy in the press conferences when he comes over all bombastic, but he's nowhere near as bad as Trump. Boris is much better at treating journalist like they have a right to ask questions. Almost like he knows what a press conference is for. And he's quite good at letting the experts be experts and defering to them as if, idk, they're all one big team.

[EACLucifer]

Or to have his bl..dy dad immediately contradict the advice.

How many journalists have been sent out to try and get a picture of Stanley in the pub tonight.

Probably about as many as get sent out to stand on quaysides when there's a massive storm. Eejits the lot of them. Well, more so their bosses really, who seem to think veiwers need pictures of everything.

@badger - Yeah, I just saw that. Boris is occasionally cringeworthy in the press conferences when he comes over all bombastic, but he's nowhere near as bad as Trump. Boris is much better at treating journalist like they have a right to ask questions. Almost like he knows what a press conference is for. And he's quite good at letting the experts be experts and defering to them as if, idk, they're all one big team.

Of course he is letting journalists ask questions; he's treating it like a PR issue, not a national emergency, complete with anonymous briefings in favoured outlets to see how ideas go down, etc. Reactive rather than proactive, and looks like he's more concerned with his image than the death toll.

ETA: I don't think he's anywhere as bad as Trump in this, nor the Tories as bad as the Republicans (see my thread in this sub-forum, The Lowest of the Low for just how bad the Republicans have been), more that we cannot be reassured by how he looks like he's handling it, because he is, as always, prioritising image over substance.

[jimbob]

Today's numbers aren't right. The number of tests has dropped to its lowest number in a week at a time when things should be ramping up. We had 8,400 tests yesterday and less than 2,400 today.

But the new positives are still high. The test positive ratio has gone from around 7% to around 30%. And the deaths are odd, too - PHE said that English deaths had risen by 39, but today's count has only gone up by 33.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=drivesdk

More focused testing?

There's often confusion between UK and England numbers from journalists. Wales, Scotland and NI announce at different times.

The end of testing obviously means testing and % positive stats are meaningless. Only hospital admissions are tested, probably not even all of those.

Indeed, see this tweet. hospital admission, x-ray showing infection but no test

https://twitter.com/OxfordDiplomat/stat ... 51496?s=20

[Ben B]

Godfrey Bloom is a pillock.

Well, we didn't close our pubs in the blitz
60,000 people killed then
What happened to our nation?

https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status ... 0613905408

[badger]

Godfrey Bloom is a pillock.

Well, we didn't close our pubs in the blitz
60,000 people killed then
What happened to our nation?

https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status ... 0613905408

Oof. Pillock is right, and then some. His timeline reveals he's drunk the same kool aid as Piers Corbyn, and is saying that the spring equinox will kill the virus off, so calm down snowflakes etc. I thought Social Media was supposed to be shutting this stuff down?

[jimbob]

Godfrey Bloom is a pillock.

Well, we didn't close our pubs in the blitz
60,000 people killed then
What happened to our nation?

https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status ... 0613905408

Oof. Pillock is right, and then some. His timeline reveals he's drunk the same kool aid as Piers Corbyn, and is saying that the spring equinox will kill the virus off, so calm down snowflakes etc. I thought Social Media was supposed to be shutting this stuff down?

I did just tweet the following reply:

Well, with an optimistic estimate of 50% infection rate, and 2% mortality, we're looking at more than ten times that number of deaths in about the same length of time.

[secret squirrel]

The man describes himself as an Austrian School economist, and is therefore obviously an idiot of the highest caliber.

[Blackcountryboy]

Or to have his bl..dy dad immediately contradict the advice.

How many journalists have been sent out to try and get a picture of Stanley in the pub tonight.

Probably about as many as get sent out to stand on quaysides when there's a massive storm. Eejits the lot of them. Well, more so their bosses really, who seem to think veiwers need pictures of everything.

@badger - Yeah, I just saw that. Boris is occasionally cringeworthy in the press conferences when he comes over all bombastic, but he's nowhere near as bad as Trump. Boris is much better at treating journalist like they have a right to ask questions. Almost like he knows what a press conference is for. And he's quite good at letting the experts be experts and defering to them as if, idk, they're all one big team.

Raven I agree they are eejits; the eejit who was sacked for dishonesty is now our PM.
Edited for spelling.

[mikeh]

If you're bored, new blog post from me -

"The new rapid is not the old rapid" - In the current pandemic, real-time data is being pushed to the max, with new expectations from everyone

https://medium.com/@michael.g.head/the- ... 4a87b7113e

[lpm]

‘The minister told BuzzFeed that Cummings and Vallance were “close allies” and claimed the govt had “bet” the future of the UK on advice from a very small group of scientists that differed from the wider international consensus, and other members of SAGE

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwi ... s-approach

Article on the Thurs 12 March announcement - claims it was a minority view and they already knew on Weds 11 March that we were on track to follow Italy.

[EACLucifer]

And they squandered that most vital resource of all - time.

I've not had a chance to dig through it yet, but watching academics pick through this online, it looks like the government seems to have neglected the possibility that rather than leading to an inevitable second wave, the aggressive delaying measures they rejected could delay the worst until we were more prepared.

The current talk seems to be about a month for more ventilators*, and vaccines and treatments are in trials. Surely better that this hits once we have had time to prepare?


*had they been requested in a timely fashion they would be being delivered by now

[EACLucifer]

Professor Devi Sridhar, who has seemed sensible so far on this, put it like this

To those saying short-term strategies will result in 2nd peak, the goal is to buy time- for health staff to have PPE & testing available, for beds & equipment, for rapid diagnostic (to test given asymptomatic transmission), for vaccine (8 being pursued by CEPI) or an antiviral.

And to learn more about re-infection with the virus- and immune response that affects who needs ICU care, & who recovers on their own. To understand where this virus came from & whether it is indeed seasonal, and how it could mutate.

Why give in when we don’t know how the story continues? Some governments seems to think we will all get it, so better it happens quickly- so that whoever is left, can move on and keep the economy going. My goal is to save lives & I disagree with that strategy.

[FredM]

And they squandered that most vital resource of all - time.

I've not had a chance to dig through it yet, but watching academics pick through this online, it looks like the government seems to have neglected the possibility that rather than leading to an inevitable second wave, the aggressive delaying measures they rejected could delay the worst until we were more prepared.

The current talk seems to be about a month for more ventilators*, and vaccines and treatments are in trials. Surely better that this hits once we have had time to prepare?


*had they been requested in a timely fashion they would be being delivered by now

True. Furthermore Operation Cygnus in 2016 highlighted the potential ventilator problem but nothing was done, something that can be laid squarely at Jeremy Rhyming slang’s door. This pops into my head every time I see his smug mazzard appearing as chair of the Health and Social Care committee.

[headshot]

Went for a run this morning. Lots of cars on the road, multiple cars filled with older people travelling with younger family/friends.

Reports in some areas of nail bars, hair dressers etc all open as usual and with plenty of custom.

FFS. People are so f.cking thick.

[Opti]

We have no choice in these matters, Pretty much everyone is taking this very seriously sedulously. I have a beach that's 100 m away. €3000 fine if I go on it.
f.cking STAY HOME.

[purplehaze]

Went for a run this morning. Lots of cars on the road, multiple cars filled with older people travelling with younger family/friends.

Reports in some areas of nail bars, hair dressers etc all open as usual and with plenty of custom.

FFS. People are so f.cking thick.

Saw grandparents with family and children as well as walking around as if fresh air is the answer.

Plus Drive through McDonalds open. I'm not sure about this.

[science_fox]

Any thoughts on http://crowdfightcovid19.org/

Seems like a little naive, but well intentioned response. I've signed up anyway although my analysis skill won't be helpful unless I'm allowed back in my building which is currently shut. I can always process data.

[shpalman]

The local authorities here had to make clear that NO YOU CAN'T GO TO YOUR OTHER HOUSE IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THE WEEKEND THIS IS NOT A f.cking HOLIDAY

AND NO YOU CAN'T GO ON FRIDAY AND COME BACK ON MONDAY TO TECHNICALLY AVOID THE WEEKEND ITSELF

[purplehaze]

Loads of people from virus hotspots heading down to the Southwest, Devon and Cornwall to their second homes.

Plus off to the caravans in Wales, the Dales, Cumbria and camping out in Scotland.

Excellent way to spread the virus and overload the healthcare system plus the local shops - though the latter are rightly using the phrase local shops for local people.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-services

[lpm]

14 days ago Italy was on 148 deaths and 351 patients in ICU. UK is on 144 deaths so probably assume similar number of about 350 in ICU?

Two days later:

UK deaths today: 233
Italy 14 days ago: 233

Uncanny.