COVID-19

[El Pollo Diablo]

Or as frankie Boyle said,

Unfortunate that the guy who drove a JCB with Get Brexit Done written on it through a polystyrene wall has decided that a life or death pandemic is the time for nuanced messaging

https://twitter.com/frankieboyle/status ... 81795?s=20

[Little waster]

Godfrey Bloom is a pillock.



https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status ... 0613905408

Oof. Pillock is right, and then some. His timeline reveals he's drunk the same kool aid as Piers Corbyn, and is saying that the spring equinox will kill the virus off, so calm down snowflakes etc. I thought Social Media was supposed to be shutting this stuff down?

I did just tweet the following reply:

Well, with an optimistic estimate of 50% infection rate, and 2% mortality, we're looking at more than ten times that number of deaths in about the same length of time.

Of course the WW2-equivalent of heading to a crowded pub for a jolly good knees-up in the midst of a deadly pandemic would be spending your evenings radioing the Germans British convoy movements.

Which I imagine Bloom would also have done as he's a far-right c.nt ...

[FlammableFlower]

The weakness of their language has reached absurd levels, This oh-so-clever nudge unit seems incapable of using basic nudge techniques. A starting point is speaking in a way that easily gets across to people.

- use concrete words, not abstract
- be practical, not conceptual
- use familiar words, not fancy words
- keep it human, not mathematical

This. So much this. These people can't communicate clearly to save anybody's life. As I said somewhere, the average read age in the UK is something like 11. Have you seen the advice on gov.uk? It's wordy, long and badly organised. For goodness sake, if you want people to listen, make your guidance simple and use simple, everyday language.

You know, like that slogan, what was it again? Oh yes. Take back control.If Cummings can reduce Brexit to three words, surely he can come up with appropriate, simply worded guidance for this.[/sarcasm] I can well believe Cummings jumped all over the idea of herd immunity as soon as he heard it. He seems just like a guy who knows a lot of science-y sounding buzz words and the precise meaning of none of them.

NICE guidelines for the UK for triage into critical care. Not based on age, but on a 9 point "frailty scale".

That's all very well under normal circumstances, but when you're inundated with a lot of critical patients at once, patients struggling to breathe and unaccompanied by family because you're trying to limit everyone's exposure, how do you find out what someone's usual activity levels are or how often they need help?

The "average reading age" thing is made up, looked into on an episode of More Or Less, as far as they could discover it was just invented by some website and it has kept being repeated (or variations of it) as it suits certain viewpoints.

However, that doesn't detract at all from the substance of your and lpm's posts, that simplicity and clarity are what's needed.

[EACLucifer]

That's all very well under normal circumstances, but when you're inundated with a lot of critical patients at once, patients struggling to breathe and unaccompanied by family because you're trying to limit everyone's exposure, how do you find out what someone's usual activity levels are or how often they need help?

Nor does it have much to do with someone's chances of actually benefitting from the treatment that is being necessarily rationed.

I suppose it is more politically palatable than an age cut-off, but there will be people with a decent chance of survival de-prioritised compared to those with less chance based on some largely irrelevant conditions.

[lpm]

Jesus, the videos of London tube trains this morning... Crushed together like a usual rush hour. This in one of the most over-heated cities on the planet.

[EACLucifer]

Fortunately, here in Spain, the general public are taking the lockdown pretty damn seriously.

There seems to be a fair bit of 'English Exceptionalism' going on back in the UK.
This ain't like the blitz guys.

I suspect the difference lies more in communication and leadership - and the lack of it in the UK right now - than any significant inherent difference in the population.

[Little waster]

Basic points are the school are going to post online various resources and activities to try and keep the kids' hand in in regards to English and Maths; all other aspects of the curriculum are to to be covered by watching Horrible Histories and Blue Planet(!).

Today's school-directed activities are as follows:-

1. Watch a ten minute Youtube video of a woman going "Muh! Muh is for Mountain. Muh! Muh is for Mountain".

List ends, thank you for your attention.


As it happens Mrs Waster had already taken this week off so she can sit with him, I'm an ex-teacher (and also working from home ATM) and the BIL is a teacher so we'll probably be able to make a decent fist of this home schooling malarky and the "School Mums*" Whatsapp group is also pinging constantly with various resources people have found (as well as a load of baseless hear-say, current one is "avoid petrol pumps") but you have to worry about those unable or unwilling to devote sizeable chunks of their working day to try and give their kids some sort of education.



*don't look at me I'm not even allowed to join.

[lpm]

Fortunately, here in Spain, the general public are taking the lockdown pretty damn seriously.

There seems to be a fair bit of 'English Exceptionalism' going on back in the UK.
This ain't like the blitz guys.

I suspect the difference lies more in communication and leadership - and the lack of it in the UK right now - than any significant inherent difference in the population.

I think Britain as an entity has been in a particularly arrogant mood in the last few years. A constant message from tabloids and politicians that we don't need to follow rules set by others.

[purplehaze]

Jesus, the videos of London tube trains this morning... Crushed together like a usual rush hour. This in one of the most over-heated cities on the planet.

City and Waterloo line suspended and many stops closed. They are obviously not going into London because they work in non essential employment because most of that avenue of employment has closed.

And this is what I find galling. Essential workers crammed together to deliver what is essential to keep the country running. I'd be scared witless.

[Bewildered]

Just looking at the worldometer graph for cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/germany/ seems like Germany’s measures are having a strong impact and they are still ramping them up. Or should I worry their testing is dropping off?

If I understand correctly there is still a lot of speculation and uncertainty as to why they have such a low deaths per confirmed case, but I assume that most of that will be down to more testing. so then it suggest the uk is at a significantly later stage than Germany, and without the same success in dampening the curve, though maybe some hope recent measures will help. Right?

It also feels to me like Australia has been very slow to act, but it does seem we are much further behind than even Germany so we may have more time.

FWIW I really appreciated mikeh’s post itt given he has a real expertise here, and hope he posts more e.g. telling me I’m wrong, but I’m finding it hard to believe that bringing in stricter measures faster isn’t the best course.

[headshot]

Just looking at the worldometer graph for cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/germany/ seems like Germany’s measures are having a strong impact and they are still ramping them up. Or should I worry their testing is dropping off?

If I understand correctly there is still a lot of speculation and uncertainty as to why they have such a low deaths per confirmed case, but I assume that most of that will be down to more testing. so then it suggest the uk is at a significantly later stage than Germany, and without the same success in dampening the curve, though maybe some hope recent measures will help. Right?

It also feels to me like Australia has been very slow to act, but it does seem we are much further behind than even Germany so we may have more time.

FWIW I really appreciated mikeh’s post itt given he has a real expertise here, and hope he posts more e.g. telling me I’m wrong, but I’m finding it hard to believe that bringing in stricter measures faster isn’t the best course.

Frau HS and I were talking about this and we were speculating that Germany has a few cultural things that are different:

1: They are less likely to hug and kiss one-another when greeting. Even handshakes are rarer there.

2: Different family generations have their own housing and live separately. Very few people live with three generations in one household.

3: Generally more likely to follow instructions from authority figures.

4: Clear, concise and empathetic messaging from leadership about the virus.

But it is pure speculation

[TopBadger]

Of course the WW2-equivalent of heading to a crowded pub for a jolly good knees-up in the midst of a deadly pandemic would be spending your evenings radioing the Germans British convoy movements.

A more appropriate analogy might be refusing to take part in the blackout...

[Stranger Mouse]

After touting his miracle cure Trump looks like he is going to try to end everyone back to work after two weeks. His Twitter today is more deranged than normal

[EACLucifer]

Of course the WW2-equivalent of heading to a crowded pub for a jolly good knees-up in the midst of a deadly pandemic would be spending your evenings radioing the Germans British convoy movements.

A more appropriate analogy might be refusing to take part in the blackout...

Yeah. I wonder if all these idiots who think "blitz spirit" means carrying on as normal and enabling a pandemic are even the slightest bit aware of the restrictions Britain did impose during the war?

[JQH]

Given the fondness Johnson has for WW2 rhetoric, isn't it time he followed through and created a National Unity Government?

[dyqik]

We have a stay-at-home order here now, with non-essential businesses being closed.

[jimbob]

Of course the WW2-equivalent of heading to a crowded pub for a jolly good knees-up in the midst of a deadly pandemic would be spending your evenings radioing the Germans British convoy movements.

A more appropriate analogy might be refusing to take part in the blackout...

That was the one that sprang to my mind

[basementer]

We have a stay-at-home order here now, with non-essential businesses being closed.

In NZ, we were warned on Monday 23rd to expect that level of shutdown to begin in 48 hours.
The Prime Minister in a press conference spoke of its being reviewed after four weeks, but that seems hopelessly optimistic to me. We'll be locked down for months.

[Gfamily]

I've just cancelled taking our car in for its MOT tomorrow - no need for me and our mechanic guy to get out there. It's got a couple more weeks on its current one, and I suspect they'll suspend the need for them soon.
Heavy vehicles testing has already been cancelled, and (for a separate reason) MOTs in Northern Ireland.

If they don't get suspended, it looks like we will have to SORN the car.

[raven]

The "average reading age" thing is made up, looked into on an episode of More Or Less, as far as they could discover it was just invented by some website and it has kept being repeated (or variations of it) as it suits certain viewpoints.

However, that doesn't detract at all from the substance of your and lpm's posts, that simplicity and clarity are what's needed.

Sorry, I misremembered. Or conflated the OECD and UK levels, one or the other. It's a good couple of weeks since I looked it up.

[Martin Y]

Of course the WW2-equivalent of heading to a crowded pub for a jolly good knees-up in the midst of a deadly pandemic would be spending your evenings radioing the Germans British convoy movements.

A more appropriate analogy might be refusing to take part in the blackout...

Yeah. I wonder if all these idiots who think "blitz spirit" means carrying on as normal and enabling a pandemic are even the slightest bit aware of the restrictions Britain did impose during the war?

Needs a poster campaign with Warden Hodges in his ARP helmet telling people to get indoors (and put that ruddy light out, just for a bit of fan service).

[El Pollo Diablo]

Our death rate rise appears to have slowed down. 54 in GB today. Been around that level for three days running now. Italy were adding 115 a day by this point.

[lpm]

Yes, a couple of days of only 20% growth, instead of 33%.

My guess is Italy had a sharper geographical divide, with a few hospitals overwhelmed early. UK is more spread out, so even the London outskirts hotspots can send patients to neighbouring hospitals without much difficulty.

[Gfamily]

There's been a thread on one of the astronomy forums about the spread, particularly in the US, which has generally seen more heat than light.

But this comment brings it home quite what a f.cked up system they have...

Screenshot_20200323-164145.jpg (103.37 KiB) Viewed 3166 times

[lpm]

UK lockdown.

The Prime Minister to address the nation.