COVID-19

[Trinucleus]

So these are the new rules

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status ... 40/photo/1

Including "limit contact with other people". Ok, I'll only visit my family twice a week

[shpalman]

Apparently things got too loose in Germany.

Screenshot_20200510-153216.png (418.48 KiB) Viewed 6088 times

See also https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52604676

Doesn't bode well for whatever the hell the plan is in the UK now.

[jimbob]

Britain could suffer more than 100,000 deaths by the end of the year if ministers relax the lockdown too far and too fast, a scientific adviser to the government warned last night.

[...]

Warnings about the potential death toll were sent to the government’s Sage advisory committee early last week by researchers from the London School of Tropical Hygiene, Imperial College London and other centres.

They modelled different lockdown exit policies “to evaluate which were viable and which were not”, a scientific adviser said. “There is very limited room for manoeuvre.”

The source said more than one model had put the death toll in six figures in some scenarios.

Johnson and his senior ministers — Michael Gove, Rishi Sunak, Matt Hancock and Dominic Raab — met on Wednesday evening to approve a less aggressive plan than many ministers had been calling for to lift the lockdown.

They did so after being told that the real rate of new Covid-19 infections was 18,000 a day when the government’s target rate is 4,000 a day. The 100,000 figure was not discussed in that meeting. But it exposes the dilemma facing Johnson as he comes under pressure from MPs to move more quickly.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -rqqbf956g

The FT estimates that current excess deaths are circa 55 000, so getting to 100 000 would require circa 225 deaths per day (last week excess deaths must have been much more than double that).

If there are currently 18 000 new infections per day then that gives us 180 deaths at a 1% IFR. So it wouldn't take a major increase to get up to those levels.

And after that all Britain would still be a long way from herd immunity.

I'm afraid it's already well more than 55,000, by now, probably closer to 60,000.

In England and Wales (the excess deaths data are not available in the same format for Scotland and Northern Ireland) the ONS excess deaths for the year to April 24th were 33600 above the 5 year average. And running at well over 11000 per week, with an 11 day lag for the weekly totals.

It's almost certainly above 55,000 in England and Wales alone by now.

[lpm]

Yeah, but those 18,000 people getting infected each day weren't alert enough. f.ck 'em.

[shpalman]

Yeah, but those 18,000 people getting infected each day weren't alert enough. f.ck 'em.

The UK wasn't alert enough to find more than about a quarter of them because it wasn't alert enough to have built up the testing capacity.

But I'm sure it will be fine now that people have been told there's a virus to be looking out for.

[Trinucleus]

Be alert.

Britain needs lerts

[lpm]

I liked the graphics.

[lpm]

That's all the positives I've got.

[Fishnut]

Why are only people arriving by air subject to quarantine? Are people travelling by boat somehow immune?

[Trinucleus]

He said at PMQs on Wednesday that the announcement should be on Sunday so that people could be ready for the changes from Monday? Then briefed friendly papers that things would be eased.

That worked

[JellyandJackson]

What the ever loving f.ck was that?
I know I’m not the sharpest, but I had no idea what he was on about. I’m going to have to find some analysis somewhere.

[Trinucleus]

Why are only people arriving by air subject to quarantine? Are people travelling by boat somehow immune?

Because they're all squashed together on planes, whereas on a train....er.....

[Trinucleus]

Why are only people arriving by air subject to quarantine? Are people travelling by boat somehow immune?

Because they're all squashed together on planes, whereas on a ferry....er.....

[Fishnut]

Why are only people arriving by air subject to quarantine? Are people travelling by boat somehow immune?

Because they're all squashed together on planes, whereas on a ferry....er.....

It's like they've forgotten that the plague managed to reach the UK multiple times before we had planes.

[Trinucleus]

BBC report that in the main document it says you can visit one person outside your household as long as you stay 2m apart.

So I can visit my son, and my wife can visit our daughter in law. Would it be OK for the dog to visit our grandson then we've got the whole family covered

[tenchboy]

What the ever loving f.ck was that?
I know I’m not the sharpest, but I had no idea what he was on about. I’m going to have to find some analysis somewhere.

Yep! Totes redic.
BBC says we can spend more time outdoors and exercise more and 'even' sit in parks.
I guess someone has got to take a chance on being fined to see how far we can travel to said parks, how long we can stay there and if 'parks' means just national and municipal parks or means any generalized open space including heathlands commons woodlands and beaches as long as we stay 6 foot apart

[Trinucleus]

Because they're all squashed together on planes, whereas on a ferry....er.....

It's like they've forgotten that the plague managed to reach the UK multiple times before we had planes.

Ooo, extra clarity. It won't apply with France. Not sure if that's French citizens or anyone coming from France, but would explain why it doesn't apply to rail passengers

[bob sterman]

Ioannidis is just desperate to find ways to present this virus as not that dangerous.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

So the population level of risk of death from COVID-19 is not very high for people...

- Under 65.
- Without underlying health conditions.
- At a time when perhaps 90-95% of the population have not even been infected in some countries.

Great. So everything is fine then.

Since he's now so good at picking cherries maybe he could come over and help with the fruit harvest????

[jimbob]

Ioannidis is just desperate to find ways to present this virus as not that dangerous.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

So the population level of risk of death from COVID-19 is not very high for people...

- Under 65.
- Without underlying health conditions.
- At a time when perhaps 90-95% of the population have not even been infected in some countries.

Great. So everything is fine then.

Since he's now so good at picking cherries maybe he could come over and help with the fruit harvest????

Indeed. If it had infected almost everyone in England and Wales, the mortality rate would be 0.1% which I understand is worse than most years of flu.

But it's probably well under 10% infected, so closer to a 1% mortality rate.

[tenchboy]

What the ever loving f.ck was that?
I know I’m not the sharpest, but I had no idea what he was on about. I’m going to have to find some analysis somewhere.

Yep! Totes redic.
BBC says we can spend more time outdoors and exercise more and 'even' sit in parks.
I guess someone has got to take a chance on being fined to see how far we can travel to said parks, how long we can stay there and if 'parks' means just national and municipal parks or means any generalized open space including heathlands commons woodlands and beaches as long as we stay 6 foot apart

BBC update: can 'drive to exercise'. What is this obsession with effin exercise? what about just going and looking???

[tenchboy]

Those waves won't cogitate 'emselves you know!

[lpm]

False Precision.

This has always been one of my favourite things to laugh at.

But now it's going to be something that will kill people. A pretence that a little dial will measure R, not just nationally but for a small local area, when we don't even have testing or tracing or the app or infection rates, and that Johnson will sit in his control room pulling levers to control the virus.

The fantasy of "control the virus" is utterly bizarre. I don't think any country except England could have created this fantasy. It's roots are English Exceptionalism, Latin-not-science, politicians who bluster instead of study. Yet again, technical details will derail grandiose declarations.

[JellyandJackson]

What the ever loving f.ck was that?
I know I’m not the sharpest, but I had no idea what he was on about. I’m going to have to find some analysis somewhere.

Yep! Totes redic.
BBC says we can spend more time outdoors and exercise more and 'even' sit in parks.
I guess someone has got to take a chance on being fined to see how far we can travel to said parks, how long we can stay there and if 'parks' means just national and municipal parks or means any generalized open space including heathlands commons woodlands and beaches as long as we stay 6 foot apart

BBC update: can 'drive to exercise'. What is this obsession with effin exercise? what about just going and looking???

Going and looking made me think of this: https://youtu.be/FnPy9inVnqg

[Brightonian]

What the ever loving f.ck was that?
I know I’m not the sharpest, but I had no idea what he was on about. I’m going to have to find some analysis somewhere.

Not sure why you're having a problem with this. But, for the hard of thinking, here's a bit more clarification just for you:
https://twitter.com/thedefenderuk/statu ... 28965?s=09

[tenchboy]

Greater Manchester police have already visited a number of care homes and issued on the spot fines and severe talkings to to many old folk for drifting off into an assortment of reveries.
Maybe.