Covid-19 the unlockdown

[bagpuss]

Well the government has given up on the idea of getting all primary school kids back into school before the end of the current school year.

Shhhh, don't say that out loud. Pretty much the only thing keeping the bagkitten going at the moment is the thought that she might be going back to school some time before the end of term. I dread the inevitable meltdown if/when she hears that she won't be. I turned the radio off instantly I heard this this morning and it's not going back on when she's around for quite some time to come

[shpalman]

10 Lincolnshire schools report confirmed or suspected virus cases

https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news ... re-4209160

[Woodchopper]

From the NY Times, cases are increasing in 21 states, in some cases dramatically.

Cases US.jpg (115.87 KiB) Viewed 5446 times

Cases are though stable of falling in the rest of the country.

Cases US 2.jpg (206.73 KiB) Viewed 5446 times

Obviously the number of cases could reflect changes in testing capacity or policy. So we'll need to wait a few weeks to see whether California, Texas, North Carolina etc have an increasing mortality rate. But if the increase in cases reflects the actual number infected its looking bad in a large part of the US (including some of its most populous states).

[lpm]

Hospitalisation stats show matching rises.

Tests per cases show matching falls, i.e. getting easier to find cases.

California and Texas have at least avoided secondwaving, by powering upwards through the lull.

[FlammableFlower]

Well the government has given up on the idea of getting all primary school kids back into school before the end of the current school year.

Shhhh, don't say that out loud. Pretty much the only thing keeping the bagkitten going at the moment is the thought that she might be going back to school some time before the end of term. I dread the inevitable meltdown if/when she hears that she won't be. I turned the radio off instantly I heard this this morning and it's not going back on when she's around for quite some time to come

It's very different with different year groups. I know my two teenagers, being far more independent, aren't that bothered. Earlier they had technology, now they can meet in small groups. On the other hand, younger ones need the social side of primary school as they have fewer opportunties (particularly when their parents might be trying to work from home or just running out of ways to cope). One of our neighbours on the allotment is a primary school TA and her school did to a partial return of some years - she said the sheer joy, even relief, the kids displayed on seeing their classmates was amazing to see and somewhat surprised her.

[Gentleman Jim]

So, without wanting to be the "Prophet of Doom", when should we expect the second wave of infection?
Looks like the 2m distancing rule will be relaxed to 1m and of course, non-essential shops re-open next week

[lpm]

My guess is we'll stay trapped in the Twilight Zone. Until Vaccination Day (which as a placeholder I say 31 March 2021).

No time of very low cases, no time of fast exponential growth, just hanging around R=1 and various regions having hot spells from time to time.

No time of full lockdown, no time of normalcy, just a never-ending drudgery of ongoing measures. Like living in a ramshackle hut built from driftwood, often changing pieces around and rebuilding but never getting a stable structure.

[Martin Y]

Does anyone have a link to any reliable information about how many days need to elapse before items handled by other people could reasonably be considered safe?

This is something that keeps coming up at work, to general shrugs. We're batting ideas around about how equipment can be cleaned and disinfected between uses, and wondering whether simply putting used items into quarantine for x days is good enough.

A lot of things, like keyboards, can be cleaned with alcohol based wipes and sprays but other stuff is a bit trickier, either because they're hard to clean fully like headphones with foam parts, or sensitive and delicate like microphones.

We already have an edict about which alcohol wipes are okay to use on touchscreens and which will damage them, but that's been entirely driven by what the manufacturers say is safe for the equipment and not, so far as I know, on what will actually leave the items safe for the users.

[Martin Y]

I might add that we're using a quarantine system at home: I had one box of nitrile gloves which we've used e.g. if Mrs Y needs to undo the padlocked gate at the allotments. Having found there's two thirds of f.ck all chance of buying more gloves, we don't throw used ones away, but keep them in a tub. Each week's tub gets put aside, and eventually comes back for reuse after about a month.

[Woodchopper]

Here’s a couple of articles.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanm ... 3/fulltext

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

tl;dr it’ll survive between three hours and a week depending on the surface and environmental conditions

[Bird on a Fire]

Thinking out loud, but presumably if you can put the items in a warm dry space with a dehumidifier that would help to dry out any droplets and kill the virus?

[lpm]

Or you could just take the additional risk, and compensate for it 10-fold by taking more care crossing roads.

[dyqik]

Obviously the number of cases could reflect changes in testing capacity or policy. So we'll need to wait a few weeks to see whether California, Texas, North Carolina etc have an increasing mortality rate. But if the increase in cases reflects the actual number infected its looking bad in a large part of the US (including some of its most populous states).

Several states (Florida in particular) on the rapidly increasing list are doing more tests, and also seeing a higher fraction of positive results. Which means that things really are out of control there.

[Martin Y]

Here’s a couple of articles.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanm ... 3/fulltext

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

tl;dr it’ll survive between three hours and a week depending on the surface and environmental conditions

Thanks very much. That's exactly what I needed.

[EACLucifer]

From the NY Times, cases are increasing in 21 states, in some cases dramatically.

Cases US.jpg

Cases are though stable of falling in the rest of the country.

Cases US 2.jpg

Obviously the number of cases could reflect changes in testing capacity or policy. So we'll need to wait a few weeks to see whether California, Texas, North Carolina etc have an increasing mortality rate. But if the increase in cases reflects the actual number infected its looking bad in a large part of the US (including some of its most populous states).

Premature re-opening without other means of control (some of the footage from Vegas is unnerving, but then, if they understood risks and odds, they wouldn't be in Vegas to begin with), mass protests on top of that, and just to cap things off, Trump's planning to start up his rallies again, including in some of the most dangerous states right now. Dificult to think of something worse than mass gatherings of people who have taken a culture-war stance against distancing and masks. To top it off, he's apparently been tacking on this waiver for attendees.

[Martin Y]

Thinking out loud, but presumably if you can put the items in a warm dry space with a dehumidifier that would help to dry out any droplets and kill the virus?

Having read Woodchopper's links I've now got fixated on Covid-19's temperature stability and proposed that when one of our trucks returns from an outside broadcast it gets left parked up with the aircon/heating temperature turned up to the max and just let it bake for a day or two. Helpfully, the heavy sound isolation means they're very well insulated boxes.

[TopBadger]

So, without wanting to be the "Prophet of Doom", when should we expect the second wave of infection?
Looks like the 2m distancing rule will be relaxed to 1m and of course, non-essential shops re-open next week

So - early to mid July then...

With only essential shops open it was fairly easy to manage a queue system - the queue for our local Sainsbury's wove in front of the doors of around ten other shops - but as those other shops were closed that was no problem. Now they're open I'm not sure how they plan to keep everyone distant.

So we could have the worst of both worlds... in that a number of people will realise things are still dicey and the reopening will just send more businesses to the wall; because shops will need to pay staff and other costs (those landlords who accepted reduced rent will now want full rent) when furlough cash will begin to evaporate and takings are thin due to the folks who aren't willing to visit stores for in person purchases.

The remainder of people who do go back out shopping will push the R rate back above 1 and we have more needless deaths.

Given our governments handling of the situation to date I've little cause for optimism.

[lpm]

It's depressing how many people seem to define themselves by shopping. Hope to feel better by queuing for Primark.

"Frivolous shopping: the cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems” is probably just as true as alcohol. Consumerism is embedded deep. The planet's f.cked.

[shpalman]

It's depressing how many people seem to define themselves by shopping. Hope to feel better by queuing for Primark.

"Frivolous shopping: the cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems” is probably just as true as alcohol. Consumerism is embedded deep. The planet's f.cked.

the queue for Primark in Lincoln

[Gentleman Jim]

It's depressing how many people seem to define themselves by shopping. Hope to feel better by queuing for Primark.

"Frivolous shopping: the cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems” is probably just as true as alcohol. Consumerism is embedded deep. The planet's f.cked.

the queue for Primark in Lincoln

Well, to be fair, people ARE being led to believe that a summer holiday in the med is still possible...................

[shpalman]

I hope that I'll be able to visit my parents in Lincoln at the end of August without having to spend two weeks in isolation either there or after having got back to Italy.

If not then I'll move the flights to December.

[Bird on a Fire]

I hope that I'll be able to visit my parents in Lincoln at the end of August without having to spend two weeks in isolation either there or after having got back to Italy.

If not then I'll move the flights to December.

I'm hoping to do something similar. While I'm pretty happy I won't catch covid here, I'm a bit worried about picking it up en route, and I can't risk infecting my mum as she works with older/vulnerable people (and tbf is no spring chicken herself).

What would be your alternative plan to lengthy isolation - wait out the incubation period and then hope you can get a test?

[tom p]

I hope that I'll be able to visit my parents in Lincoln at the end of August without having to spend two weeks in isolation either there or after having got back to Italy.

If not then I'll move the flights to December.

I'm hoping to do something similar.

You want to visit shpalman's parents too?

[JQH]

Queue round the block when I went past our local Sports Direct this morning.

[shpalman]

I hope that I'll be able to visit my parents in Lincoln at the end of August without having to spend two weeks in isolation either there or after having got back to Italy.

If not then I'll move the flights to December.

I'm hoping to do something similar. While I'm pretty happy I won't catch covid here, I'm a bit worried about picking it up en route, and I can't risk infecting my mum as she works with older/vulnerable people (and tbf is no spring chicken herself).

What would be your alternative plan to lengthy isolation - wait out the incubation period and then hope you can get a test?

I would also prefer not to infect my parents, so being obliged to self-isolate (or wait out the incubation period) with them would be a bit ridiculous. I'm certainly more likely to catch covid here* somehow, as compared to Lincolnshire, but I'm hoping that by August it will be mostly gone (a lockdown necessitated by a second wave would also solve the problem in the other direction).

So basically my alternative plan to lengthy isolation is to just not go there.

I expect the situation and the rules to change in the next two months so we'll see.

* - well maybe not at home in Como, depending on how it goes if my preferred social activities ever open up again, and I'm still surprised I didn't catch it in Milan in February, and that Milan never seemed to have a high proportion of infected people (especially given how many tourists took covid home with them in February) and while Bergamo looks like a very hot spot, that was to do with some of the small towns in the Serio valley such as Nembro and Alzano Lombardo, or rather their hospitals, not the city itself or the airport.

Malpensa terminal 1 is open again today. I think Orio al Serio has been open for a while. Flightradar24 shows that a RyanAir flight has just departed for Berlin even if the live departures page of the airport website doesn't.