SARS-CoV2 treatment

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
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bob sterman
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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by bob sterman » Sun May 03, 2020 7:07 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 11:13 am
MMR vaccine may prevent, or mitigate effects of, SARS-CoV-2.

I guess this would explain why most children seem to cope with the disease pretty well (but I haven't read the full article, and it seems that precisely this observation is what led the authors to investigate this idea).

It's always been a bit ironic that the solution to this crisis will require the anti-vaxx loons to get vaccinated, but it would be absolutely f.cking hilarious if it was MMR.
These authors seem to be particularly focused on the rubella component of the MMR. If so then surely they need to consider that people were getting rubella vaccinations well before the MMR was introduced.

In the UK girls were getting it at school from 1970 - and I think there was a catch-up programme for women of child-bearing age.

Also as adults, men who started work in clinical settings (e.g. doctors, nurses etc) would also get it.

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by AMS » Sun May 03, 2020 9:13 am

raven wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 11:00 pm
jdc wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 8:54 pm
It's ~1% per year isn't it.

I'd guess so. If lots of people have been exposed, it's only the youngest cohort & those who've missed it previously that are susceptible. And as measles has an Ro of 12-18 it would be really suprising if only 1% of the population had had it.

(Wikipedia has values for common infectious diseases here. They're all pretty high.)
Image

So around 400,000 cases per year prior to the original vaccine being introduced, so that's just under 1% catching it *per annum* over several decades. If the majority of those cases are in children, that's a clear majority compared to births per year (generally in the 500-700k range over this period). And around 100,000 per year for the 1970s and 80s, which would still be around the 1:6 mark.

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sTeamTraen
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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon May 04, 2020 9:02 am

When I was at primary school in the 1960s, it was pretty much normal for everyone to have a couple of weeks off school at some point for measles, mumps, chickenpox, and a tonsilectomy. Rubella ("German measles") was only a week off and widely regarded as a bit of a skive - some parents of girls seemed very keen for their daughters to get it, although I don't think rubella parties were a thing. I still have my tonsils and didn't get chickenpox until I was 30 (*seriously* not recommended), but the other three were absolutely par for the course.
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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by tom p » Mon May 04, 2020 1:03 pm

JQH wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 9:08 pm
jdc wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 7:31 pm
raven wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 4:33 pm
Is it likely that MMR would also protect from Covid-19? Would that be full protection or only partial?
Looks to me like they're suggesting people who've had MMR might be less ill with Covid-19 rather than being fully protected.
we hypothesize that MMR could protect against poor outcome in COVID-19 infection. As an initial test of this hypothesis, we identified that 1) age groups that most likely lack of MMR vaccine-induced immunity had the poorest outcome in COVID-19, and 2) COVID-19 disease burden correlates with rubella antibody titres, potentially induced by SARS-CoV2 homologous sequences
Those most likely to have not had the MMR are older and thus more likely to have additional health problems and therefore more likely to have a poorer covid19 outcome.
I think you (and others) might be replying based on the abstract.
I was about to agree with you, but noticed the PDF of the full-text article is available from a little link top-right of the abstract.

Here's what section 2.3 Epidemiological data says
Young, et al. wrote:Italy, Spain and Germany are the three European countries with the highest number of reported Covid19 cases at the moment. Historic vaccination schedules or recommendations for these countries were identified from relevant bodies and the literature [Vaccination schedules in Spain, 2019; STIKO, Germany, 2020; Filia, 2003]. Average coverage for each 10-year age group was calculated using WHO / UNICEF coverage estimates for 1980-2018 [World Health Organisation, 2019]. Age-adjusted casefatality risk was calculated, separately for males and females, as a percentage. This was done using data about the number of reported cases with confirmed Covid-19 for whom demographis were known, and the fatalities amongst them, which were obtained from national reports [State Regions Conference, Italy 2020; Istituto Superiore di Sanità 2020] and from the European Centre for Disease prevention and Control (ECDC) [European Centre for Disease, 2020].
Y'all may also wish to review section 3.2 'nall.

tl;dr version - it actually looks interesting and plausible, but more research is needed

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sTeamTraen
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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:59 pm

Two articles, one in the Lancet claiming to show that (hydroxy)chloroquine led to excess deaths in COVID-19 patients and an earlier one in the New England Journal of Medicine highlighting the risks of COVID-19 to people with cardiovascular conditions have today been subjected to Expressions of Concern (aka: "We think these are dodgy, the authors are on notice to tell us why we shouldn't retract them") from their respective journals. Both articles used data from an alleged database of hundreds of hospitals worldwide, which very probably does not exist.

If confirmed, this will be the most audacious fraud in the medical literature for a long time, and act as a perfect illustration of the current near-bankrupt state of peer review.
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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by Brightonian » Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:14 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:59 pm
Two articles, one in the Lancet claiming to show that (hydroxy)chloroquine led to excess deaths in COVID-19 patients and an earlier one in the New England Journal of Medicine highlighting the risks of COVID-19 to people with cardiovascular conditions have today been subjected to Expressions of Concern (aka: "We think these are dodgy, the authors are on notice to tell us why we shouldn't retract them") from their respective journals. Both articles used data from an alleged database of hundreds of hospitals worldwide, which very probably does not exist.

If confirmed, this will be the most audacious fraud in the medical literature for a long time, and act as a perfect illustration of the current near-bankrupt state of peer review.
I see your partner-in-crime has a piece in the Graun on this.

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:50 pm

Brightonian wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:14 am
I see your partner-in-crime has a piece in the Graun on this.
Yes, partly based on some of his recent blog posts but without the hairy Aussie former death metal singer and strongman act [sic] levels of swearing.
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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by Gentleman Jim » Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:53 am

For us vapers:
the potential mechanisms through which nicotine interacts with the inflammatory process and the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone axis, warrant an investigation of the clinical effects of pharmaceutical nicotine on COVID-19 susceptibility, progression, and severity through clinical trials. This may be feasible through repurposing already approved (for other indications) pharmaceutical nicotine products such as nicotine patches, or even by using these products as already indicated (i.e. as smoking substitutes). These products are relatively safe and have been administered therapeutically in non-smokers for neurological conditions and inflammatory bowel disease for longer periods than would be needed for COVID-19 [55–57]. Nicotine could also be administered though inhalation, with the use of a nebulizer or other aerosol systems, if needed, for an added local effect [58]. Additionally, nicotine administration would not substitute for other treatment regimens and could be added to antiviral or other therapeutic options for COVID-19.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... ort=reader
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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by jimbob » Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:09 pm

In the Pipeline blog about antibody treatments

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... ibody-news
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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by MartinDurkin » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:42 pm

Just watched the UK government's press conference where they were bigging up Dexamethasone.
The guy from Oxford (if I understood correctly) said something to the effect that if they treat 8 intensive care patients with this drug they will save 1 life. Does that mean the other 7 will die?

Doesn't seem that great odds, but maybe I'm missing something.

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:55 pm

MartinDurkin wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:42 pm
Just watched the UK government's press conference where they were bigging up Dexamethasone.
The guy from Oxford (if I understood correctly) said something to the effect that if they treat 8 intensive care patients with this drug they will save 1 life. Does that mean the other 7 will die?
As I understand it, no. I read it as if they treat 8 intensive care patients with dexamethasone, 1 more will survive than if they give them standard care without dexamethasone. So its not 7 die or 8 die, out of eight, its more like 2 of 8 die rather than 3 of 8 die.

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by MartinDurkin » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:58 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:55 pm
MartinDurkin wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:42 pm
Just watched the UK government's press conference where they were bigging up Dexamethasone.
The guy from Oxford (if I understood correctly) said something to the effect that if they treat 8 intensive care patients with this drug they will save 1 life. Does that mean the other 7 will die?
As I understand it, no. I read it as if they treat 8 intensive care patients with dexamethasone, 1 more will survive than if they give them standard care without dexamethasone. So its not 7 die or 8 die, out of eight, its more like 2 of 8 die rather than 3 of 8 die.
OK, thanks, that would make more sense.

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:21 am

Sinovac reports good results on vaccine phase II trials and is planning phase III trials in Brazil.
BEIJING--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sinovac Biotech Ltd. ( “Sinovac” or the “ Company”)(Nasdaq: SVA), a leading provider of biopharmaceutical products in China, today announced positive preliminary results of phase I/II clinical trial for the Company’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate, named CoronaVac, which showed favorable immunogenicity and safety profiles.
The Company expects to submit a phase II clinical study report and a phase III clinical study protocol to China’s National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in the near future and commence application of phase III clinical trials outside of China. As previously announced on June 11, 2020, Sinovac is collaborating with Instituto Butantan in Brazil to prepare and conduct a phase III clinical study. The Company expects to share the full data on our clinical trials with the public through academic publications.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... -Phase-III

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by bolo » Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:41 am

Because a company press release that prominently mentions the company's stock symbol is always a super reliable source -- no need to wait for those pesky "academic publications".

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by Herainestold » Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:51 am

bolo wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:41 am
Because a company press release that prominently mentions the company's stock symbol is always a super reliable source -- no need to wait for those pesky "academic publications".
Obviously they are pumping their stock but they are proceeding to phase III trials.

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:29 am

FWIW Butantan are a well regarded public institution, and they have an announcement about the upcoming Phase III trials on their website http://www.butantan.gov.br/noticias/but ... oronavirus

OTOH anything could happen in Brazil these days.
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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by tom p » Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:35 pm

bolo wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:41 am
Because a company press release that prominently mentions the company's stock symbol is always a super reliable source -- no need to wait for those pesky "academic publications".
In all fairness, since it was the disgraceful food hygiene in china that caused the outbreak, it shouldn't be surprising to anyone if a Chinese company is first to market with a vaccine, given they had a decent head start on everyone else when it comes to access patients and data.

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by Martin Y » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:07 pm

This item on dexamethasone praises it as a significant breakthrough for those worst affected, but it has a rather unhelpful graph:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281
dexamethasone.JPG
dexamethasone.JPG (80.42 KiB) Viewed 789 times
Having stated the remarkable results that for patients on oxygen it cuts deaths by a fifth and for patients on ventilators it cuts deaths by a third, at a glance the chart looks underwhelming. But of course the chart isn't showing lives saved vs lives lost, it's showing lives saved vs patients treated, including everyone who would recover anyway. So what it shows is true, but it would have been an awful lot clearer what it was showing if it had used 3 colours/shades to show deaths as well as recoveries and the extra recovery due to dexamethosone.

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by MartinDurkin » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:49 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:07 pm
...

Having stated the remarkable results that for patients on oxygen it cuts deaths by a fifth and for patients on ventilators it cuts deaths by a third, at a glance the chart looks underwhelming. But of course the chart isn't showing lives saved vs lives lost, it's showing lives saved vs patients treated, including everyone who would recover anyway. So what it shows is true, but it would have been an awful lot clearer what it was showing if it had used 3 colours/shades to show deaths as well as recoveries and the extra recovery due to dexamethosone.
I think that's what confused me yesterday. On the other hand loads of people seem to be seeing it as a cure so we can just get back to normal and if we catch COVID they will be able to give us Dexamethasone.

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by Herainestold » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:55 am

China has approved adenovirus covid vaccine for use in the military
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s military has received the greenlight to use a COVID-19 vaccine candidate developed by its research unit and CanSino Biologics (6185.HK) after clinical trials proved it was safe and showed some efficacy, the company said on Monday.

The Ad5-nCoV is one of China’s eight vaccine candidates approved for human trials at home and abroad for the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus. The shot also won approval for human testing in Canada.

China’s Central Military Commission approved the use of the vaccine by the military on June 25 for a period of one year, CanSino said in a filing. The vaccine candidate was developed jointly by CanSino and a research institute at the Academy of Military Science (AMS).

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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by Martin_B » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:36 am

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:55 am
China has approved adenovirus covid vaccine for use in the military
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s military has received the greenlight to use a COVID-19 vaccine candidate developed by its research unit and CanSino Biologics (6185.HK) after clinical trials proved it was safe and showed some efficacy, the company said on Monday.

The Ad5-nCoV is one of China’s eight vaccine candidates approved for human trials at home and abroad for the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus. The shot also won approval for human testing in Canada.

China’s Central Military Commission approved the use of the vaccine by the military on June 25 for a period of one year, CanSino said in a filing. The vaccine candidate was developed jointly by CanSino and a research institute at the Academy of Military Science (AMS).
See here: viewtopic.php?p=38976#p38976
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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:42 pm

Good article on research on Covid treatments. One area where the UK response is world class: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07 ... re-results


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Re: SARS-CoV2 treatment

Post by FlammableFlower » Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:26 pm

Promising results from Southampton trial of inhaled beta-interferon that also appears to be more general than SARS-CoV2.

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