US Election

[Grumble]

Some of my American friends on Facebook are posting about Biden's speech at the DNC and how it was ok, and they're a little disappointed that it wasn't as ambitious as they'd hoped.

Because yeah, that's the thing you should be discussing right now...Biden's stump speech delivery and whether it fits with your political wish list.

It’s ok to want more though isn’t it?

[headshot]

Of course, but have that debate after Biden is in, instead of raising issues now that will lessen Biden’s support and possibly usher in full-blown fascism in America.

[Bird on a Fire]

Of course, but have that debate after Biden is in, instead of raising issues now that will lessen Biden’s support and possibly usher in full-blown fascism in America.

The other risk, though, is that failing to present an easily-grasped vision of the future will lessen Biden's support and possibly etc etc.

Like, he isn't Donald Trump. Magnificent. Me neither. Beyond that, there's this general kind of "let's get back to normal" vibe, and while restoring the basic functions of government is an obvious prerequisite to doing anything useful, it's not very interesting, and overlooks the fact that "normal" was sh.t for loads of people. It's as vague and misguided as MAGA, but less marketable.

Biden has clearly got some ideas of what he'd like the US to look like in 5 years' time, and some policies designed to achieve them. But he doesn't seem to be pushing any kind of coherent vision, apparently instead deliberately opting for the strategy of being an inchoate vanilla blancmange onto whom everyone can hopefully project their ideals of a perfect candidate. I genuinely don't know if that's the best idea, but hopefully they know what they're doing.

[dyqik]

Of course, but have that debate after Biden is in, instead of raising issues now that will lessen Biden’s support and possibly usher in full-blown fascism in America.

The other risk, though, is that failing to present an easily-grasped vision of the future will lessen Biden's support and possibly etc etc.

Like, he isn't Donald Trump. Magnificent. Me neither. Beyond that, there's this general kind of "let's get back to normal" vibe, and while restoring the basic functions of government is an obvious prerequisite to doing anything useful, it's not very interesting, and overlooks the fact that "normal" was sh.t for loads of people. It's as vague and misguided as MAGA, but less marketable.

Biden has clearly got some ideas of what he'd like the US to look like in 5 years' time, and some policies designed to achieve them. But he doesn't seem to be pushing any kind of coherent vision, apparently instead deliberately opting for the strategy of being an inchoate vanilla blancmange onto whom everyone can hopefully project their ideals of a perfect candidate. I genuinely don't know if that's the best idea, but hopefully they know what they're doing.

The US right now isn't a unified country that will get behind any coherent vision of what it should be, so not pushing that is an advantage.

[Bird on a Fire]

I suspect that's long been the case, to be honest. It's why US politicians use the word 'America' in every single sentence, when 'we' or 'people' or 'the world' would do the job just fine. It's why the flag is on everything. It's why US culture has been so easy to export globally.

I suspect that the social division is simply far more obvious now, partly because political partisanship is more stark but also because it's so much easier for people from NYC and Bumblefuck, WY to talk to each other and realise that they have nothing in common except a nation.

[monkey]

I suspect that's long been the case, to be honest. It's why US politicians use the word 'America' in every single sentence, when 'we' or 'people' or 'the world' would do the job just fine. It's why the flag is on everything. It's why US culture has been so easy to export globally.

I suspect that the social division is simply far more obvious now, partly because political partisanship is more stark but also because it's so much easier for people from NYC and Bumblefuck, WY to talk to each other and realise that they have nothing in common except a nation.

The big divide in the USA is urban vs rural. Pretty much the same as anywhere. You don't have to go that far into New Jersey, Pennsylvania or New York State from Brooklyn to find bigly Trump places. Here's a map from the NYT: clicky. This is nothing new, and is probably as old as industrialisation.

Of course, because it's the USA, racial politics is also a factor, for example, look at the NYT map and see if you can guess where the black people live in the South before having a look at this racial demographic map: clicky.

[FlammableFlower]

Some of my American friends on Facebook are posting about Biden's speech at the DNC and how it was ok, and they're a little disappointed that it wasn't as ambitious as they'd hoped.

Because yeah, that's the thing you should be discussing right now...Biden's stump speech delivery and whether it fits with your political wish list.

Fox News seems to have really liked it! I wonder if Murdoch is having a similar "it was the Sun wot one it" moment?

[bmforre]

Is Fox media possibly seeing Donald going down bigly and deciding they dont want to follow him and his down the drain?
Interesting.

What if they take up issues such as why the US get much less health services for the money spent on health than other big spenders? Could it possibly have to do with paying so much to lawyers, accountants and similar "service" providers and less to nurses and other practical workers? Surely here's room for lots of revelations, producing horror and disgust to show and sell?

[JQH]

...
What if they take up issues such as why the US get much less health services for the money spent on health than other big spenders? Could it possibly have to do with paying so much to lawyers, accountants and similar "service" providers and less to nurses and other practical workers? Surely here's room for lots of revelations, producing horror and disgust to show and sell?

Those, plus most US health care is provided by private businesses who need to make a profit.

[Bird on a Fire]

I don't see the billionaire media changing their stance on things that make billionaires lots of money, like healthcare, fossil fuels or the military. Presidents come and go - what's important to the billionaire class is that whichever president wins is the one that best represents their interests.

Trump might simply be seen as too toxic and/or too dysfunctional - that doesn't mean that after the election they won't work to undermine every ounce of progress the Biden administration tries to implement.

In any case, Biden's been openly courting the Fox demographic since the Democratic race began, so it's good to see that it's paying off - I didn't see that coming. As long as Trump is enough of a bogeyman that we don't see 2016 levels of apathy from the left-of-Hitler portion of US voters he should have this sewn up.

[Martin Y]

Is Fox media possibly seeing Donald going down bigly and deciding they dont want to follow him and his down the drain?
Interesting.

Interesting indeed if true. I suppose if they foresee Trump losing their options are to stoke their audience's fears or embrace the change. If they should choose the latter path of saying "well, it doesn't look as bad as all that" then that will surely undermine Trump further, since a chunk of his support is of the "He may be a sonofabitch, but he's our sonofabitch" variety; people who thought Hilary almost literally had horns on her head so anyone else would do.

[bmforre]

Remember they had the White House, Senate and House - all three - but never managed even a new proposal on healtcare in spite of boasting and promising for years. A number of voters must be noticing this and wondering if the boasts are just facades in front of a total lack of constructive ideas.

And support for workers and businesses with reduced or no income in these days of corona ran out the other week. The Senate shrugged and went away. The Donald promised to fix the very deep trouble but came up with far too little - while Nancy called her troops back to serious work. Many voters staring eviction and hunger in the face while repugs just blather on about Will to Work.

I believe Biden is spot on with the appeal that Change is possible.

Folk see clearly that change is necessary.
Belief that change is possible is key now.

When hunger is not debilitating it may concentrate minds wonderfully.

[bmforre]

Trump accuses FDA of sabotage against him

See what the Donald is trying to cook up now:

Trump went after the Food and Drug Administration, accusing the agency of delaying clinical trials for coronavirus vaccines and treatments as part of a “deep state” plot to hurt his reelection chances.

“The deep state, or whoever, over at the FDA is making it very difficult for drug companies to get people in order to test the vaccines and therapeutics,” Trump tweeted. “Obviously, they are hoping to delay the answer until after November 3rd. Must focus on speed, and saving lives!”

And they're opposed to wonderdrugs he's proposed:

.. he hit the FDA for revoking the emergency use of hydroxychloroquine to treat coronavirus patients, a drug that Trump has touted since the early days of the pandemic even though there is scant evidence of its efficacy.

“Many doctors and studies disagree with this!” Trump tweeted in reply to a two-month old tweet from when the FDA made the decision.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) brought up the president’s FDA tweet during a Capitol Hill news conference, calling it “very scary” and said “everybody should take note of it.”

The FDA’s job is to focus on safety and effectiveness of new drugs, not political expedience.

His demand that everyone has to believe him and only him sounds more and more desperate.

[Martin Y]

FFS. Even if the president believes "the deep state" is trying to delay fixing the crisis to make him look bad, the presidential thing to do is maintain a dignified silence and let minions do the dirty work of briefing against The Deep State. But this f.cker doesn't do dignified. Or presidential.

Honestly, the kind thing to do is just tell him he won. Tell him the grateful nation decided to reward him with all the golf time he wants and he doesn't even have to go to Washington any more because he's just so great at presidenting he can do it from Florida or wherever.

[FlammableFlower]

FFS. Even if the president believes "the deep state" is trying to delay fixing the crisis to make him look bad, the presidential thing to do is maintain a dignified silence and let minions do the dirty work of briefing against The Deep State. But this f.cker doesn't do dignified. Or presidential.

Honestly, the kind thing to do is just tell him he won. Tell him the grateful nation decided to reward him with all the golf time he wants and he doesn't even have to go to Washington any more because he's just so great at presidenting he can do it from Florida or wherever.

Bit like the Demon King Astfgl from Eric?

Pratchett might have been quite prophetic there, or at least have had a very good idea for how to handle tin pot dictators.

[discovolante]

Duarte Pio?

[Millennie Al]

Obviously the reality is that those jobs are mostly going, subsidies or otherwise. Coal especially is doomed, and "just transition" mechanisms to lessen that blow are infinitely preferable to funding uneconomic pollution with taxpayers' money

Seems that Margaret Thatcher was quite the visionary.

[plodder]

I suspect that's long been the case, to be honest. It's why US politicians use the word 'America' in every single sentence, when 'we' or 'people' or 'the world' would do the job just fine. It's why the flag is on everything. It's why US culture has been so easy to export globally.

Nope, US culture is such a huge success globally because they’re brilliant at it.

[Bird on a Fire]

I don't think I said otherwise.

Nevertheless, "brilliant" culture (let's pretend for the sake of discussion that we agree on a definition) isn't always easy to export to people in other cultures - the humour, the situations, the protagonists' preoccupations and motivations may not be obvious without exposition. I think US culture generally expects/demands very little from its audience, which helps it to be so widely enjoyed. It's already written with the intention of being viewed by audiences drawn from various cultural backgrounds.

And I don't mean any of that as a dig.

[dyqik]

I'm sure party platforms must be good for something. I'm just not sure what it is. Maybe wrapping fish?

The RNC appear to have decided not to bother with one this year.

Probably since there won't be anyone* not named Trump there to vote on it, or meet in committee to decide it.

* Or who is not completely off the rails.

[Little waster]

* Or who is not completely off the rails.

Now that’s not entirely fair, some of the Republicans are on rails, it’s just those rails are taking us in a hand-cart through a funhouse designed by H.R. Giger while the lyrics of Gary Glitter songs are screamed at us in Russian and it’ll eventually dump us out into the 9th Circle of Hell, in the Antenora.

[El Pollo Diablo]

RealClearPolitics reckons ten senate races are toss-ups (asterisk shows the incumbent):

Arizona - Martha McSally (R)* vs Cpt Mark Kelly (D). McSally very recently suggested that Arizonans should fast a meal and give her the money they would've spent on food. The most recent poll has her trailing by 19 points. This is probably an outlier, the average is a lead for Kelly of around 8-10 points.

Colorado - Cory Gardner (R)* vs John Hickenlooper (D). Not a huge number of polls here, but Hickenlooper is in front around by maybe 6-10 points.

Georgia 1 - David Perdue (R)* vs Jon Ossoff (D) - This one actually is a toss-up. Relatively little polling, surprisingly, and plenty of what is there was commissioned by one side or the other. Polls show anywhere from Ossoff +3 to Perdue +3.

Iowa - Joni Ernst (R)* vs Theresa Greenfield (D) - Iowa may be a rare state which votes for Trump but ejects its Republican senator. It's tight, but Greenfield is in front by around 2 or 3 points.

Maine - Susan Collins (R)* vs Sara Gideon (D) - This could well be the Portillo moment of the senate elections. Collins has been lambasted for supposedly being more centrist but having supported Trump's supreme court pick, voting against impeachment and generally having her nose rammed up Trump's a..eh.le. She's very consistently behind by around 3-7 points.

Michigan - Gary Peters (D)* vs John James (R) - Peters is well in front, by around 7-10 points.

Minnesota - Tina Smith (D)* vs Jason Lewis (R) - There isn't much polling, but Smith seems to be leading, by around 3 points.

Montana - Steve Daines (R)* vs Steve Bullock (D) - The Battle of the Steves. Daines is probably in front, but again it's tight. The lead is maybe 2-3 points for Daines, though polling back in July showed Bullock in front. Again, precious little polling.

North Carolina - Thom Tillis (R)* vs Cal Cunningham (D) - Cunningham is winning, by around 3-5 points.

South Carolina - Lindsey Graham (R)* vs Jaime Harrison (D) - probably not really a tossup, but we'll see. Graham, about whom there have been no rumours whatsoever, has a lead of around 1-3 points.

So, with current scores, 7-8 Democrat seats and 2-3 Republican seats, meaning the Dems are likely to retake the senate. Texas and the other Georgia seat, plus the currently-Democrat Alabaman seat are all very very unlikely to vote Democrat, barring some amazing Trumpian meltdown.

As always, we're still a way away from the election yet, and the presidential debates could make a huge difference, but it's looking okay.

[lpm]

Useful summary of the state of play. But 2018 was a big disappointment in Senate terms. I'd be worried the same will occur. Democrats need to win 4, of which 2 are pretty safe in Arizona and Colorado.

Hence Democrats need to win 2 out of 3 good chances: Maine, North Carolina, Iowa.

Fail there and they've got a couple more possibles: Georgia (Perdue) and Montana.

If opinion shifts back just a little to Republicans (as opposed to Trump) they could hold the Senate. This will be their priority, given how little chance they have with the presidency.

[El Pollo Diablo]

RNC probably won't help with that, though - there aren't really that many republicans speaking at it - it's mostly the Trump Party who've got the slots.

[lpm]

Good point. The more Trump madness the better, to crowd out everything else. Thankfully we can always depend on Trump to seize all attention and attack his own side if they stray.