Pianissimo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:00 am
Yeah I was apparently underestimating what was left. This is going to be one hell of a court fight though, which is worrying given the 6-3 ratio on the court.
It's not clear what would actually reach the supreme court.
It has to be on an actual thing, e.g. "We the plaintiffs want the late received votes not to be counted".
Trump wrote:We won states and all of a sudden I said what happened to the election? It’s off. And we have all these announcers saying what happened, and then they said: oooh. Because you know what happened? They knew they couldn’t win so they said let’s go to court. And did I predict this, did I say this? I’ve been saying this from the day I heard they were going to send out tens of millions of ballots, I said exactly this. Because either they were going to win, or if they didn’t win, they’ll take us to court.
Great speech. "They" said let's go to court, because they knew they couldn't win?
Trump wrote:so we’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court.
So based on numbers in fox I get roughly that to win in:
- Michigan Biden needs to win more than about 59% of remaining votes
- Pensylvania Biden needs to win more than about 62% of remaining votes
- Wisconsin Biden needs to win more than about 89% of remaining votes
I didn’t factor the percent or so won by the libertarian candidate etc though, but the first two seem quite plausible Biden wins at least.
Bewildered wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:36 am
So based on numbers in fox I get roughly that to win in:
- Michigan Biden needs to win more than about 59% of remaining votes
- Pensylvania Biden needs to win more than about 62% of remaining votes
- Wisconsin Biden needs to win more than about 89% of remaining votes
I didn’t factor the percent or so won by the libertarian candidate etc though, but the first two seem quite plausible Biden wins at least.
Numbers on CNN and AP now put Biden ahead in Wisconsin. So a huge chunk of votes remaining when you posted must have gone to Biden.
Atlanta was where the burst water pipe was and they stopped counting.
There's been a lot of hatred for the needles, mainly because Georgia jumped from 88% probability for Trump to slight advantage to Biden around midnight eastern time.
I'm not sure why they should be distrusted now, though, after their f.ck up has been corrected. Obviously it's very close and we won't know for days, but if they model it with Biden at 64% why not believe it?
Still, Right to Repair passed in MA, despite huge auto industry efforts against it. And my congressional rep won reelection with somewhere above 90% of the vote.
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:40 am
I'm not 100% sure what's happening in North Carolina but Biden just pulled to within 67,000 votes of Trump there.
Orange county, Wake county, Cumberland county and Forsyth county there have big populations and results yet to report.
The president leads by nearly 700,000 votes, but there are 1.4 million absentee votes outstanding.
By Nate Cohn
Nov. 4, 2020, 6:53 a.m. ET
Joe Biden has won absentee ballots counted in Pennsylvania by an overwhelming margin so far, according to data from the Secretary of State early Wednesday. If he carried the remaining absentee ballots by a similar margin, he would win the state.
... forecast Biden 50.3%, Trump 48.5%
President Trump leads by nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania as of 5 a.m. on Wednesday, and Mr. Biden’s chances depend on whether he can win a large percentage of the more than 1.4 million absentee ballots that remain to be counted.
So far, Mr. Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania, 78 percent to 21 percent, according the Secretary of State’s office. The results comport with the findings of pre-election surveys and an analysis of absentee ballot requests, which all indicated that Mr. Biden held an overwhelming lead among absentee voters.If Mr. Biden won the more than 1.4 million absentee votes by such a large margin, he would net around 800,000 votes — enough to overcome his deficit statewide.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that Mr. Biden will win the remaining absentee vote by quite so much. But so far, his standing in the tabulated absentee vote has almost exactly matched our pre-election projections for the absentee vote by county, based on New York Times/Siena polling and data from L2, a political data vendor.
...If anything, the pre-election estimates suggest that Mr. Biden might be expected to do better, because the areas with remaining absentee votes are ever so slightly more Democratic than the state as a whole.
And there are possible if still uncertain sources of additional strength for Mr. Biden, like absentee ballots that arrive in the days after the election — or the possibility that the count is not yet including ballots that were left in drop boxes on the day of the election.
Mr. Trump has few places to turn for votes. His strength in the Election Day vote, which he carried by a wide margin, is all but exhausted, according to our estimates of the vote remaining. Most of the Election Day vote that remains is in Philadelphia and its suburbs.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
