US Election

[sTeamTraen]

Georgia:

Left: 50,401
Trump lead: 13,540

Biden gets 63-37 and it's a tie. Georgia rules are that any tie in an election is not resolved by a coin toss but a dance-off to the song YMCA. Safe to say Trump wins that hands down, his YMCA dance is fab. So Biden needs to beat 63%.

Woodchopper reported earlier that there were about 61,000 left to count and Trump led by 19,000. Assuming those are not just "about", that means that of 10,600 votes, 8,030 were for Biden (75.8%) and 2,570 for Trump. If the remainder split the same way, Biden would get 38,180 and Trump 12,220, meaning a Biden gain of 25,960 and victory by 12,420.

[Brightonian]

Via Twitter:

[lpm]

Georgia:

Left: 50,401
Trump lead: 13,540

Biden gets 63-37 and it's a tie. Georgia rules are that any tie in an election is not resolved by a coin toss but a dance-off to the song YMCA. Safe to say Trump wins that hands down, his YMCA dance is fab. So Biden needs to beat 63%.

Woodchopper reported earlier that there were about 61,000 left to count and Trump led by 19,000. Assuming those are not just "about", that means that of 10,600 votes, 8,030 were for Biden (75.8%) and 2,570 for Trump. If the remainder split the same way, Biden would get 38,180 and Trump 12,220, meaning a Biden gain of 25,960 and victory by 12,420.

Yes.

There are people on Twitter doing proper spreadsheeting. Divide into counties, take the % for the individual county.

They are coming up with numbers like 9,243 to Biden.

[Little waster]

Courtesy of 538: Republicans are all c.nts Part One Hundred and Twelvety Thousand

Where Trump’s Legal Maneuvering Stands

As we wait for results in a handful of states, the Trump campaign has been busy filing lawsuits alleging various kinds of voting-related misconduct and trying to intervene as a party in the Pennsylvania ballot deadline case at the Supreme Court. That might sound serious, but it’s important to remember that anyone can file a lawsuit, so the mere fact of bringing an issue to court doesn’t mean it’s a decisive issue — or even evidence of actual wrongdoing. So here’s an overview of where the litigation stands and what the outcome might be. In most cases, the issues that are being raised do not appear to be especially consequential, at least right now.

Pennsylvania

The Trump campaign and other Republicans have filed multiple lawsuits in Pennsylvania, claiming various kinds of election-related irregularities:

A lawsuit filed in state court by the Trump campaign claiming that observers were not able to “meaningfully” oversee the count, and asking for the count to be stopped. On Thursday, a state appellate court issued an order guaranteeing that GOP ballot observers can watch the process within six feet. The order did not stop the count in Philadelphia, however.
Another lawsuit filed in state court by the Trump campaign and the RNC that tries to move up the deadline for when mail-in voters with missing ID information would need to provide that information. Currently the deadline is Nov. 12, but the Trump campaign wants it to be changed to Nov. 9.
Another state court lawsuit filed by Pennsylvania Republican candidates and voters, involving ballots that were corrected during the initial ballot-processing (“pre-canvassing”) period on Nov. 3.
A federal case filed by a Republican candidate objecting to the process of “curing” or correcting problems with mail-in ballots in Montgomery County, just outside Philadelphia. At a hearing yesterday, the judge in the case seemed skeptical that the Republican claims had affected the integrity of the election, and in any case, a relatively small number of ballots (fewer than 100) appear to have been affected.
The Trump campaign has asked to intervene as a party in the Supreme Court litigation over Pennsylvania’s ballot-receipt deadline, which was extended to Friday by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has declined twice to overrule the deadline, but several conservative justices indicated that they might be willing to revisit the case, potentially throwing the validity of any ballots postmarked on Election Day that arrive in that three-day window into question. However, it’s also not clear whether a large number of ballots are actually arriving late — Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said on Wednesday that there are only “hundreds” so far.

Michigan

The Trump campaign is suing to stop the vote count in Michigan, claiming that it was not given access to observe the counting, and asking to review ballots that it was not able to witness. It’s not clear what the campaign is really trying to accomplish here, since Biden is leading in the state. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson also said that the claim “doesn’t really line up with the facts.”

Georgia

The Trump campaign and the Georgia GOP filed a lawsuit asking a judge in Chatham County to make sure that late-arriving ballots are being properly segregated from on-time ballots. (In Georgia, ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day to count.) The campaign claims that the county might be mishandling ballots, but this appears to be based on a single allegation from a Republican poll observer involving a small number of ballots. In any case, the lawsuit isn’t seeking to stop on-time ballots from being counted.
Wisconsin

The Trump campaign has indicated that it will file a formal recount request in Wisconsin — but this can’t happen until the last county has submitted its canvass to the state elections commission, which will happen sometime between Nov. 10 and 17. (And it’s worth mentioning here that recounts rarely reverse the outcome of elections — including in 2016, when Trump’s lead over Clinton was basically unchanged after a Wisconsin recount.)

For the second time in quick succession, another military history factoid.

During the Korean War a British unit was being overrun by the Chinese and due to a communication cock-up received no reinforcements or supplies. By the end they were completely of ammunition so in desperation began throwing tins of cheese at the Chinese in the hope they would think they were hand grenades. It worked about as well as you'd expect.

I have no idea why I was reminded of that.

[sTeamTraen]

Via Twitter:

Worst Valentine poem ever.

[lpm]

Trump is going to announce his candidacy for the 2024 election.

Not because he will be a candidate, but because

(a) lot more "fund raising" from the suckers

(b) the criminal proceedings can then be cast as a political witchhunt against the opposition candidate

[dyqik]

Trump is going to announce his candidacy for the 2024 election.

Not because he will be a candidate, but because

(a) lot more "fund raising" from the suckers

(b) the criminal proceedings can then be cast as a political witchhunt against the opposition candidate

My question is whether he will take over OANN or Newsmax to get himself another captive audience and outlet for wittering, and take Carlson and Hannity to it with him.

[sTeamTraen]

Trump is going to announce his candidacy for the 2024 election.

This would be fantastic. Four years of the non-frootloop Republicans having to pretend that noise you can hear isn't a wailing loon locked in the cupboard.

[Adept]

Also of passing interest is that some of Trump's creditors might start calling in their loans if he is no longer President.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 66962.html

[FlammableFlower]

Trump is going to announce his candidacy for the 2024 election.

This would be fantastic. Four years of the non-frootloop Republicans having to pretend that noise you can hear isn't a wailing loon locked in the cupboard.

It would, but I can't decide whether his vindictiveness and hatred of "losing" would outweigh his low threshold for getting bored without quick wins, as to whether he'd go through with it.

[dyqik]

Via Twitter:

Pretty much confirming the stereotype of surgeons as arrogant individualistic glorified plumbers there.

Very very roughly, the complexity and degree of social interaction involved in the issues treated gets higher as you go down that list.

[lpm]

Am I awful person because...

When I see someone on Twitter say "Oh f.ck, this looks really bad"...

And I have a surge of panic...

Then realise they are just talking about today's Covid death toll...

And I think thank god for that.

[Bird on a Fire]

I'm sure I've also seen research reported suggesting that 'psychopathy' / antisocial behavioural disorder is more common amongst surgeons and emergency medicine.

[dyqik]

Am I awful person because...

When I see someone on Twitter say "Oh f.ck, this looks really bad"...

And I have a surge of panic...

Then realise they are just talking about today's Covid death toll...

And I think thank god for that.

Over 110k new cases today in the US. I imagine that an election spike would have shown up in the next week or so if it wasn't the exponential rise that's already happening.

[dyqik]

I'm sure I've also seen research reported suggesting that 'psychopathy' / antisocial behavioural disorder is more common amongst surgeons and emergency medicine.

Emergency medicine, I can imagine is due to the job (proximity to police officers might also feature in that poll above as well). Surgeons, I cynically suspect is the other way round.

[Little waster]

Biden has just won two-thirds of a tranche of 37,000 mail votes from a REPUBLICAN-leaning county in PA, knocking another 10,000 off Trump's majority there.

If the remaining 50,000 votes in Georgia are anything like that then his 9k majority there is toast.

ETA: It looks like the Solid Republican county mail votes tend to be a) very low and b) a wash i.e 50:50 split so they are going to barely factor other than reduce the remaining vote pool slightly.

[El Pollo Diablo]

75k to go in Penn.

[bolo]

Via Twitter:

Pretty much confirming the stereotype of surgeons as arrogant individualistic glorified plumbers there.

Very very roughly, the complexity and degree of social interaction involved in the issues treated gets higher as you go down that list.

Given the huge gender gap in party preference, it would be interesting to know how much of this is variation in the gender breakdown of different medical specialties. It would not surprise me, for example, if surgeons are somewhat more likely to be male and pediatricians are somewhat more likely to be female.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Trump sounds weak. He sounds tired. He sounds defeated.

[Vertigowooyay]

He’s swimming in a sea of his own ego driven b.llsh.t. Is anyone vaguely important in the process going to give a toss at this stage?

He’s delivered SCOTUS to the Republicans. What do they still need him for?

[lpm]

He wandered off stage like a tired old man.

End of an era.

[Vertigowooyay]

It would be f.cking gorgeous if Nevada announced a Biden win whilst Trump splutters his lies now.

[Vertigowooyay]

Ha, ABC, CBS and MSNBC all cut away from Trump when the lies spewed out.

[lpm]

Lol.

"An obese turtle on his back flailing in the hot sun, realizing his time is over."

Fox didn't support a word of Trump's news conference speech rambling whining.

[lpm]

Georgia:

Trump lead 3,635
Ballots left 18,936

65-35 will take it to a Biden lead of 5,681

It obviously won't be officially called by the networks, but it'll be highly symbolic when it flips to a Biden lead.