Thanks, I hadn't noticed that. I see they've done the same with deaths by date of death, where i think the incomplete period is longer. When I get time I'll adjust my R code to include but flag and zero-weight recent data.
I like the XKCD. I know I'm torturing the data, but I can't resist
That XKCD isn't really true when you look at the trends. We *are* on the cusp of the second wave as far as deaths are concerned, and that also suggests that cases did indeed start to fall earlier when we thought they did. Or indeed the age profile trends. EDIT: At the peak, you should expect noise to alter the levels as the gradient is roughly flat, but it's a probabilistic process
Of course, with the opening up due in December, It doesn't look good for Christmas - let alone towards the end of January with Johnson's superspreader festival.
jimbob wrote: Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:31 pm
That XKCD isn't really true when you look at the trends. We *are* on the cusp of the second wave as far as deaths are concerned, and that also suggests that cases did indeed start to fall earlier when we thought they did. Or indeed the age profile trends. EDIT: At the peak, you should expect noise to alter the levels as the gradient is roughly flat, but it's a probabilistic process
Of course, with the opening up due in December, It doesn't look good for Christmas - let alone towards the end of January with Johnson's superspreader festival.
Yes, here is recent deaths by date of death.
Deaths.png (10.22 KiB) Viewed 10344 times
Even accepting reporting lag the plateau is clear. We'll have to wait a while to see if there's a decline.
I don't really understand the bit in blue, can you expand on that?
I share your opinion on the plans for Christmas, I'll be celebrating with only my household ( = Mrs. KAJ).
Stupidosaurus wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:56 pm
I'm not liking this new variant that's popped up in the Danish mink farms https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54833459.
A bit more stewing of Covid sequences in animals was not what we needed at this point. One to watch, I think...hope it comes to nothing.
Maybe because it's been done for a long time - at least a century. Upthread, I mentioned the anthrax-cull cattle mounds on the East Kent Marshes that now have rabbit burrows through them, which Dad told me about.
jimbob wrote: Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:31 pm
That XKCD isn't really true when you look at the trends. We *are* on the cusp of the second wave as far as deaths are concerned, and that also suggests that cases did indeed start to fall earlier when we thought they did. Or indeed the age profile trends. EDIT: At the peak, you should expect noise to alter the levels as the gradient is roughly flat, but it's a probabilistic process
Of course, with the opening up due in December, It doesn't look good for Christmas - let alone towards the end of January with Johnson's superspreader festival.
Yes, here is recent deaths by date of death.
Deaths.png
Even accepting reporting lag the plateau is clear. We'll have to wait a while to see if there's a decline.
I don't really understand the bit in blue, can you expand on that?
I share your opinion on the plans for Christmas, I'll be celebrating with only my household ( = Mrs. KAJ).
If the gradient is flat, then day to day noise will have more of an affect on momentary changes in the gradient. And as it's at the peak, the variation in absolute terms is going to be at a maximum.
If you're increasing at the 33% per day of the first peak, then a 5% change in a day's figures might reduce the slope but won't turn it negative. If you're at 0% per day, then it will affect the gradient. Especially if there are two days in a row increasing or decreasing.
(Bit longer: really properly far away from London North is tier 2 again)
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman.bsky.social / bsky.app/profile/chrastina.net
threads.net/@dannychrastina
Stupidosaurus wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:56 pm
I'm not liking this new variant that's popped up in the Danish mink farms https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54833459.
A bit more stewing of Covid sequences in animals was not what we needed at this point. One to watch, I think...hope it comes to nothing.
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
Stupidosaurus wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:56 pm
I'm not liking this new variant that's popped up in the Danish mink farms https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54833459.
A bit more stewing of Covid sequences in animals was not what we needed at this point. One to watch, I think...hope it comes to nothing.
Maybe because it's been done for a long time - at least a century. Upthread, I mentioned the anthrax-cull cattle mounds on the East Kent Marshes that now have rabbit burrows through them, which Dad told me about.
Oregon State Uni recommends using lime and Washoe County has this:
It is recommended that the dead animal be covered with lime or similar material prior to being covered with soil. This will aid in decomposition and reduce the potential for odors.
The mutant crayfish were part of the perm* I was using and the pre-historic worms are my banker every year.
#TheSpiceMustFlow
*which got buggered up when Leyton went 1:0 against Bradford on Tuesday. f.cking Dan Happe.
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
photo_2020-11-26_16-19-49.jpg (72.88 KiB) Viewed 10155 times
vs. today's covids:
photo_2020-11-26_16-21-37.jpg (74.46 KiB) Viewed 10155 times
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman.bsky.social / bsky.app/profile/chrastina.net
threads.net/@dannychrastina
We were in Tier 1 before we went into lockdown, we’re coming out of lockdown a month later in Tier 3 and with a higher case rate. So lockdown has made things demonstrably worse here.
Our house is a 5 minute drive from the Worcestershire border - in tier 2.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman.bsky.social / bsky.app/profile/chrastina.net
threads.net/@dannychrastina
headshot wrote: Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:46 pm
I live in Dudley MBC.
We were in Tier 1 before we went into lockdown, we’re coming out of lockdown a month later in Tier 3 and with a higher case rate. So lockdown has made things demonstrably worse here.
Our house is a 5 minute drive from the Worcestershire border - in tier 2.
Where am I right now, North Kesteven, seems to be only slightly above the national average, but Lincolnshire is in tier 3 because East Lindsey (i.e. Skegness) is twice as bad for some reason.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman.bsky.social / bsky.app/profile/chrastina.net
threads.net/@dannychrastina
Oh goodie Claire Fox is on QT ... said nobody ... ever.
Apparently she is a "free-speech campaigner from the Institute of Ideas".
"Ideas" being $piked slang for the same drearily tedious contrarian libertarianism like every other f.cking time. I mean if the last year has taught us anything it is that during a global pandemic the people we really need to hear more from is that bunch of spoiled toddlers.
From what I can gather her argument following the inevitable COVID first question was:-
1. Lockdown didn't work because cases went up
2. We shouldn't move back into Tiers because cases went down.
3. Lockdown wasn't necessary because there were very many other options we could have done, of which she had discovered a truly marvelous proof of, but which this margin is too narrow to contain.
4. Won't somebody think about the rich people ...
I gave up after that, she might say something halfway intelligent later in the show ... but on all her past form I f.cking doubt it.
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
Chinese media now claiming that Sars-Cov-2 is transmitted by frozen food packaging and may have come into the country from abroad.
“#COVID19 did not start in central China’s Wuhan but may come through imported frozen food and packaging: experts,” said a Wednesday Facebook post by the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily.
Unlike other countries, China cites frozen food packaging as a risk of spreading COVID-19. It has stepped up inspections and made a spate of announcements that the virus was found on chilled food packaging, prompting rejections of goods and complaints from exporters, even though the World Health Organization says neither food nor packaging is a known transmission route.
The Global Times, a nationalist tabloid published by the People’s Daily, has also promoted the theory that COVID-19 originated outside China.
“When and where did the virus start circulating? Tracing the virus cannot answer all questions, but it is very likely that the virus had co-existed in multiple places before being spotted in Wuhan,” Zeng Guang, former chief epidemiologist of China’s Center for Disease Control, said in Tuesday’s Global Times.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
thinking that it was a piss take meemee fave from the onion.
YCGTR
TBF $pike is basically The Onion without the jokes, said local man yesterday.
This place is not a place of honor, no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here, nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
This place is best shunned and left uninhabited.
sTeamTraen wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:24 am
For anyone (like me) who thought that the US might still be the place doing worst, especially with the recent numbers of over 100,000 cases per day, this might be sobering. 7-day moving averages of cases per 100K and deaths per million in the EU (27 countries) and the US (50 states etc etc). A variety of healthcare and lockdown policies in both cases, and also a lack of centralised leadership --- in the EU because they have no mandate, in the US because of, well, you know.
My guess is that the difference between the two is that several large US states that were hit hard in the first wave (e.g., New York) seem to be keeping a lid on new outbreaks this time around, whereas almost every EU country is going the wrong way. France reported 86,000 cases yesterday. Belgium's recent average, if scaled up to the US population, would be 450,000 per day. Shout out to Ireland, which has seen new cases halve in the two weeks since they went for a lockdown that was almost as strong as the one in the spring.
tl;dr: COVID makes idiots of us all, over and over again.
It depends a lot on what scale of map you're looking at. For example, in the first wave, half of Italy's cases were in Lombardy, and if Lombardy were a country it would have looked worse than Belgium (they have similar populations). So it seemed the second wave in Lombardy wasn't going too badly because people remembered, and in September that might have been true. But then Milan was relatively unaffected first time around because it was concentrated around Bergamo, and now Milan is having a much worse second wave (about a quarter of Lombardy's cases). (Lombardy's true death stats were about double the official covid deaths but Bergamo's true death stats were five times higher than the official covid deaths.)
The province of Como is trending up through 100 new cases per day per 100,000 on a doubling time of 8-9 days which is slightly above the Lombardy average (more like 90 new cases per day per 100,000). I don't have deaths data at a Province level but Lombardy as a whole is at about 10 deaths per day per million. Of course that will go up to follow the way that cases have been going up for the past month.
The question is whether that's herd immunity (or rather that there isn't anyone left to die) or just people remembering how bad it was and taking it seriously this time.
It's also handy that the numbers are presented as new cases per 100,000 per week so you can compare with the UK numbers f.ck VARESE WAS AT NEARLY 1000.
128141057_207694974184019_8759474002470443811_n.png (98.15 KiB) Viewed 9945 times
Not sure if Como and Varese are high because of their proximity to Milan, or because of their proximity to Switzerland...
127274639_207695007517349_4841844544727765531_o.png (283.88 KiB) Viewed 9945 times
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman.bsky.social / bsky.app/profile/chrastina.net
threads.net/@dannychrastina
