Getting Brexit done

[Woodchopper]

And for the latest plot twist, Macron has tested Covid positive.
https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/133950 ... 37002?s=20

I hope he doesn't get very sick. If he does then important decisions may be postponed.

[plodder]

UK sets up borders but fails to fund port infrastructure to implement those borders
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/13 ... 47393?s=21

Dover requested £33 million, got £33 000. Wait for long queues in the summer.

f.cking hell. £33k won't buy you a reliable HGV. A couple of portacabins perhaps. I hope they're not relying on the Farage Garage, it's not going to be ready in time.

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit- ... ark-796873

[Woodchopper]

UK and EU agree on terms for public procurement (to be open in both).
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/stat ... 8053898242

Its now starting to look like they're sliding toward a deal. Lets see whether they've left enough time.

[plodder]

UK and EU agree on terms for public procurement (to be open in both).
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/stat ... 8053898242

Its now starting to look like they're sliding toward a deal. Lets see whether they've left enough time.

yes, that's a little way into the specifics. The UK won't be able to ensure gov spending prioritises UK business. What's the point in all this, again?

[Woodchopper]

UK and EU agree on terms for public procurement (to be open in both).
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/stat ... 8053898242

Its now starting to look like they're sliding toward a deal. Lets see whether they've left enough time.

yes, that's a little way into the specifics. The UK won't be able to ensure gov spending prioritises UK business. What's the point in all this, again?

Yes, there will be exactly those headlines when EU companies start winning big iconic contracts like for passports.

[Woodchopper]

EU Parliament displaying a lot more flexibility than I had expected. Chair of the EPP groups says that they'll still ratify the treaty if they get a text by Sunday. I don't know what the rest think.

There are other options if the text arrives late, like provisional application, but they involve bypassing the parliament, which wouldn't be good.

https://twitter.com/ManfredWeber/status ... 88608?s=20

[headshot]

And for the latest plot twist, Macron has tested Covid positive.
https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/133950 ... 37002?s=20

I hope he doesn't get very sick. If he does then important decisions may be postponed.

Sounds like the perfect face-saving excuse for a deadline extension...

[Brightonian]

And for the latest plot twist, Macron has tested Covid positive.
https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/133950 ... 37002?s=20

I hope he doesn't get very sick. If he does then important decisions may be postponed.

Sounds like the perfect face-saving excuse for a deadline extension...

Indeed - seems many countries' top people potentially at risk as he'd met with several in recent days. Micheál Martin, Irish Taoiseach, now self-isolating as a result.

[Woodchopper]

EU Parliament displaying a lot more flexibility than I had expected. Chair of the EPP groups says that they'll still ratify the treaty if they get a text by Sunday. I don't know what the rest think.

There are other options if the text arrives late, like provisional application, but they involve bypassing the parliament, which wouldn't be good.

https://twitter.com/ManfredWeber/status ... 88608?s=20

European Parliament has formally put its foot down.
https://twitter.com/IratxeGarper/status ... 7432296450

They are being very flexible as I don't see how it would be possible to actually scrutinize hundreds of pages of legal text by 28 December.

Point 4 looks like they'll be very pissed off if a deal is provisionally implemented without the consent of the European Parliament.

If they miss Sunday talks will probably continue. But it gets harder to avoid some no deal chaos.

[sTeamTraen]

If they miss Sunday talks will probably continue. But it gets harder to avoid some no deal chaos.

Historians are going to have a field day with this. The average 60-person wedding is planned with less uncertainty.

[Woodchopper]

If they miss Sunday talks will probably continue. But it gets harder to avoid some no deal chaos.

Historians are going to have a field day with this. The average 60-person wedding is planned with less uncertainty.

The average 10 person birthday party is planned with less uncertainty. It’s two weeks away and they still can’t decide whether it’ll be at her house on Sunday afternoon or in the pub on Saturday night.

[Bird on a Fire]

Maybe Johnson is hoping that at 11pm on the 31st Michel Barnier is going to burst out of the cake and sing "Auld Lang Syne, Monsieur Prime Minister", peeling sheets of paper one-by-one from his lingerie-clad body which on closer inspection turn out to contain the text of an EU trade deal acquiescing to all of the UK's wildest demands, even the impossible or contradictory ones, already signed and ratified.

[sTeamTraen]

Part of the calculation for the UK government at this stage surely has to include what the effect on the Great British Panic-Buying Public will be if it's announced (or, more likely, the GBPBP in its infinite crowdly wisdom decides) that shortages are in the offing, especially since in 2-3 days from now it's going to be clear as day from the COVID numbers that everyone will be going into another lockdown Tier 4 Gold Special Plus Yum Yum on 28 December.

At least when people bought all the tinned tomatoes back in March there was no problem for the supermarkets getting more tinned tomatoes in from Sweden or Latvia or wherever it is in the EU that they grow tomatoes. Indeed, the fact that the worst that happened for many people was having to go back 2 or 3 times to find some bog roll on the shelves may make people think that the knock-on effect of their own stockpiling on others is likely to be minimal.

[Bird on a Fire]

Remind me why the government would give a f.ck about panic buying (a) at all and (b) over all the other reasons to want an orderly exit from the EU?

[Woodchopper]

von der Leyen statement after a phone call with Johnson.
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/ ... 45024?s=21

Only mentions fisheries as a serious problem.

Fish could be easy to negotiate as it’s a basic discussion about numbers. But it’s difficult because it’s one issue that people easily understand.

[Woodchopper]

von der Leyen statement after a phone call with Johnson.
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/ ... 45024?s=21

Only mentions fisheries as a serious problem.

Fish could be easy to negotiate as it’s a basic discussion about numbers. But it’s difficult because it’s one issue that people easily understand.

But Johnson’s statement is much more downbeat

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prim ... ember-2020

Could all just be negotiating ploys ...

[AMS]

Fish could be easy to negotiate as it’s a basic discussion about numbers. But it’s difficult because it’s one issue that people easily understand.

Except people don't understand it properly, e.g. that the definition of "UK waters" has changed since the 1970s, or that lots of UK quotas got sold off to foreign boats, or that most of the rest are held by a couple of big players, or that there's tension between what trawlermen want from a deal v what salmon farmers need. But I suspect a lot of people only "understand" it in a "get orf my laaand" sense.

Fish *should* be easy to negotiate because the numbers involved are small enough that we can just pay off anyone adversely affected by the T&Cs of a deal. But to get to that we need to get beyond the playing to the gallery about "our" fish.

[bjn]

Fish could be easy to negotiate as it’s a basic discussion about numbers. But it’s difficult because it’s one issue that people easily understand.

Except people don't understand it properly, e.g. that the definition of "UK waters" has changed since the 1970s, or that lots of UK quotas got sold off to foreign boats, or that most of the rest are held by a couple of big players, or that there's tension between what trawlermen want from a deal v what salmon farmers need. But I suspect a lot of people only "understand" it in a "get orf my laaand" sense.

Fish *should* be easy to negotiate because the numbers involved are small enough that we can just pay off anyone adversely affected by the T&Cs of a deal. But to get to that we need to get beyond the playing to the gallery about "our" fish.

What AMS said. I've heard it so may times from naive Brexity folk about how the fishermen are hard done by and roll my eyes. The UK taking a license of a french fisherman post Brexit is as much theft as theft as the French taking a vineyard off a UK expat in France.

[jimbob]

EU Parliament displaying a lot more flexibility than I had expected. Chair of the EPP groups says that they'll still ratify the treaty if they get a text by Sunday. I don't know what the rest think.

There are other options if the text arrives late, like provisional application, but they involve bypassing the parliament, which wouldn't be good.

https://twitter.com/ManfredWeber/status ... 88608?s=20

If I threaten to chop off my left foot and bleed all over your living room carpet, and I carry that out, I would lose more, but it would still inconvenience you, so if you could avoid having to clean up the polythene sheets you've been putting down, it's still better for you.

[Woodchopper]

Fish could be easy to negotiate as it’s a basic discussion about numbers. But it’s difficult because it’s one issue that people easily understand.

Except people don't understand it properly, e.g. that the definition of "UK waters" has changed since the 1970s, or that lots of UK quotas got sold off to foreign boats, or that most of the rest are held by a couple of big players, or that there's tension between what trawlermen want from a deal v what salmon farmers need. But I suspect a lot of people only "understand" it in a "get orf my laaand" sense.

Fish *should* be easy to negotiate because the numbers involved are small enough that we can just pay off anyone adversely affected by the T&Cs of a deal. But to get to that we need to get beyond the playing to the gallery about "our" fish.

Fair enough, you’re right. Fishing is difficult because it can be reduced to an infographic, albeit one which is an oversimplification.

[sTeamTraen]

Remind me why the government would give a f.ck about panic buying (a) at all and (b) over all the other reasons to want an orderly exit from the EU?

Because the people who vote care about not being able to buy food. It's an immediate and salient issue in their lives, whereas most of Brexit is entirely hypothetical to most people. Even if their workplace closes down, they won't necessarily be able to put their finger on the exact cause (for example, many of the problems in retail are due to Amazon more than Brexit, and if you work for a car company, well, maybe Slovakia would have been cheaper even within the EU). But pictures of queues of Tesco lorries at Calais and empty shelves in your local supermarket are something where everyone can understand the causal relationship.

[sTeamTraen]

Fish *should* be easy to negotiate because the numbers involved are small enough that we can just pay off anyone adversely affected by the T&Cs of a deal. But to get to that we need to get beyond the playing to the gallery about "our" fish.

Fair enough, you’re right. Fishing is difficult because it can be reduced to an infographic, albeit one which is an oversimplification.

Johnson can assume that any trade agreement will pass in the House of Commons because Labour will abstain. But any Tory PM also has to keep the 1922 Committee happy, and quite a few of them may feel the need (either because of personal jingoism or because of their postbags and the threat of Farage starting up again) to go full batshit on fish.

[Bird on a Fire]

Well sure, but voters also like not dying and the government didn't enforce the same kinds of restrictions other countries felt were obviously necessary, with predictable results. It's not like the risk of panic-buying can only just have occurred to them - they've had 3.5 years to stop it getting to this stage.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Well sure, but voters also like not dying and the government didn't enforce the same kinds of restrictions other countries felt were obviously necessary, with predictable results. It's not like the risk of panic-buying can only just have occurred to them - they've had 3.5 years to stop it getting to this stage.

4.5 years.

[Woodchopper]

. @10DowningStreet pessimism on UK/EU talks is tactical - to extract more out of EU on fish; & to delay a deal to the very last minute to limit Parliament's time to scrutinise the detail

Govt especially worried about Brexit-supporting lawyers waiting to analyse it for Tories’ ERG

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1 ... 15681?s=20

From the well connected Mujtaba Rahman

Regarding scrutiny, Johnson is probably less worried about losing a vote in Parliament (he's got a majority of 80, and Labour will probably abstain), than he is about headlines denouncing him as a traitor to the Tory party members.