Brexit Consequences

[sheldrake]

Could it by any chance be because you are just making it up as you go along?

In what sense? Oh, but then you go on to agree with me

The non-fuel shortages in NI have been mostly due to GB-NI shipping and customs/inspection difficulties.

Yes, I'm well aware of that.

There is no critical shortage of HGV drivers in Ireland and they can roll across the open border with no issues around customs, VAT, goods inspection, ID cards, driving licences, or ability to work, all of which are maintained by NI's continuing membership of the Single Market and Customs Union.

That's got nothing to do with fuel deliveries and it isn't helping them avoid shortages.

Yes, having a customs border in the Irish sea is an unacceptable condition that was only ever meant to be temporary whilst the EU worked with us to solve it in good faith. They haven't been doing that so article 16 is likely to get invoked soon.

Can you point us to the article in the Withdrawal Agreement or the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement which mentions this "meant to be temporary" thing? Otherwise, you do know that international treaties consist only of the text on the paper that the parties sign, and not the thoughts that one side might have had in their head at the time, right?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eement.pdf

NOTING that nothing in this Protocol prevents the United Kingdom from ensuring unfettered market
access for goods moving from Northern Ireland to the rest of the United Kingdom's internal market,
UNDERLINING the Union's and the United Kingdom's shared aim of avoiding controls at the ports and
airports of Northern Ireland, to the extent possible in accordance with applicable legislation and
taking into account their respective regulatory regimes as well as the implementation thereof,
RECALLING the commitments of the Union and the United Kingdom reflected in the Joint Report
from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government on progress
during phase 1 of negotiations under Article 50 TEU on the United Kingdom's orderly withdrawal
from the European Union of 8 December 2017,
RECALLING that the Union and the United Kingdom have carried out a mapping exercise which shows
that North-South cooperation relies to a significant extent on a common Union legal and policy
framework,
NOTING that therefore the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the Union gives rise to substantial
challenges to the maintenance and development of North-South cooperation,
RECALLING that the United Kingdom remains committed to protecting and supporting continued
North-South and East-West cooperation across the full range of political, economic, security, societal
and agricultural contexts and frameworks for cooperation, including the continued operation of the
North-South implementation bodies,
ACKNOWLEDGING the need for this Protocol to be implemented so as to maintain the necessary
conditions for continued North-South cooperation, including for possible new arrangements in
accordance with the 1998 Agreement,
RECALLING the Union's and the United Kingdom's commitments to the North South PEACE and
INTERREG funding programmes under the current multi-annual financial framework and to the
maintaining of the current funding proportions for the future programme,
AFFIRMING the commitment of the United Kingdom to facilitate the efficient and timely transit
through its territory of goods moving from Ireland to another Member State or to a third country,
and vice versa,
DETERMINED that the application of this Protocol should impact as little as possible on the everyday
life of communities in both Ireland and Northern Ireland,
UNDERLINING their firm commitment to no customs and regulatory checks or controls and related
physical infrastructure at the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland,
RECALLING that Northern Ireland is part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom and will
benefit from participation in the United Kingdom's independent trade policy,
HAVING REGARD to the importance of maintaining the integral place of Northern Ireland in the
United Kingdom’s internal market,
MINDFUL that the rights and obligations of Ireland under the rules of the Union's internal market and
customs union must be fully respected,

And in particular

Having regard to Northern Ireland's integral place in the United Kingdom's internal market, the
Union and the United Kingdom shall use their best endeavours to facilitate the trade between
Northern Ireland and other parts of the United Kingdom, in accordance with applicable
legislation and taking into account their respective regulatory regimes as well as the
implementation thereof. The Joint Committee shall keep the application of this paragraph
under constant review and shall adopt appropriate recommendations with a view to avoiding
controls at the ports and airports of Northern Ireland to the extent possible.

The UK government's point is that the EU has not been making a best endeavour as described in the bolded section. I agree with the UK government on this point. The EU's goal is to attempt to enact a punishment for leaving the EU, and politicians from many EU member nations have actually voiced agreement.

[plodder]

Like, no-one foresaw that they'd make an example of a state who wanted to leave. Literally no-one foresaw that at all. It wasn't mentioned, the idea wasn't pooh-poohed, we weren't reassured it was all ready to go, this is all a surprise.

[sheldrake]

Like, no-one foresaw that they'd make an example of a state who wanted to leave. Literally no-one foresaw that at all. It wasn't mentioned, the idea wasn't pooh-poohed, we weren't reassured it was all ready to go, this is all a surprise.

This isn't a surprise to most people who voted for Brexit either, but it's not having much effect as you can see from our economic metrics compared to most of the EU's. Some of the more extreme proposals from the EU are damaging to their constituent nations' economies and face internal resistance, or would be unlikely to stand up in front of the WTO. This too shall pass.

[temptar]

Like, no-one foresaw that they'd make an example of a state who wanted to leave. Literally no-one foresaw that at all. It wasn't mentioned, the idea wasn't pooh-poohed, we weren't reassured it was all ready to go, this is all a surprise.

This isn't a surprise to most people who voted for Brexit either, but it's not having much effect as you can see from our economic metrics compared to most of the EU's. Some of the more extreme proposals from the EU are damaging to their constituent nations' economies and face internal resistance, or would be unlikely to stand up in front of the WTO.

You are both utterly deluded. It wasn't a case of making an example of the UK since the UK with its Brexit is Brexit was well capable of doing that all on its ownio.

There are consequences to your goddamn decisions. Said decisions include voting for Brexit and negotiating agreements. Screeching about those agreements now is just pathetic. The NIP is broadly supported in NI apart from by the DUP NI does not have shortage of essentials.

You would have to wonder why there was panic buying in England and not NI. Could it be that the average rate of intelligence in NI - which voted against Brexit- is higher than in England or is it because conditions there are better?

My guess is the latter. YMMV.

[sheldrake]

There are consequences to your goddamn decisions. Said decisions include voting for Brexit and negotiating agreements. Screeching about those agreements now is just pathetic.

So do you think the EU has made a sincere good faith effort to restore the internal integrity of the UK, as they signed up to above, or not?

How do you explain the UK's stronger economic performance than the EU's since?

[temptar]

There are consequences to your goddamn decisions. Said decisions include voting for Brexit and negotiating agreements. Screeching about those agreements now is just pathetic.

So do you think the EU has made a sincere good faith effort to restore the internal integrity of the UK, as they signed up to above, or not?

How do you explain the UK's stronger economic performance than the EU's since?

You are starting from a lower base. Recall a metric tonne more of your people need to access food banks.

What do you mean restore the internal integrity? I mean, NI has had separate laws for abortion for years, for example. Trade arrangements are less of an issue here.

And tbf, NI was a stupid British idea in the 1920s. A fair whack of the people living there would like the integrity of Ireland returned.

Why did NI not panic buy, sheldrake?

[sheldrake]

You are starting from a lower base. Recall a metric tonne more of your people need to access food banks.

The UK GDP per capita is significantly higher than the EU average, and was in 2016.

What do you mean restore the internal integrity? I mean, NI has had separate laws for abortion for years, for example. Trade arrangements are less of an issue here.

And tbf, NI was a stupid British idea in the 1920s. A fair whack of the people living there would like the integrity of Ireland returned.

Trade and movement of goods are precisely called out in the document above which was signed by EU negotiators.

Why did NI not panic buy, sheldrake?

That's a good question, but we know that lots of other areas of the UK didn't see panic buying.

[jdc]

Why did NI not panic buy, sheldrake?

That's a good question, but we know that lots of other areas of the UK didn't see panic buying.

Which areas are these? You can cross Yorkshire off your list. Pretty sure the North West has been bad too. I think I read that midlands and east of England have been f.cked too. What's left? Maybe bits of Cornwall and Durham have been OK?

Hopefully we'll get some idea of how many people across the country have had trouble buying food and fuel when the next ONS report comes out this Friday.

I think their last bulletin had 4% having trouble buying fuel (and it was 1 in 6 not being able to buy essentials and 1 in 4 not being able to buy non-essentials).

[sheldrake]

Which areas are these? You can cross Yorkshire off your list. Pretty sure the North West has been bad too. I think I read that midlands and east of England have been f.cked too.

My part of the midlands has been fine.

What's left? Maybe bits of Cornwall and Durham have been OK?

Hopefully we'll get some idea of how many people across the country have had trouble buying food and fuel when the next ONS report comes out this Friday.

I think their last bulletin had 4% having trouble buying fuel (and it was 1 in 6 not being able to buy essentials and 1 in 4 not being able to buy non-essentials).

The last ONS report didn't give us a prior baseline, and the language it used was 'difficulty' rather than 'unable' IIRC.

[jdc]

My part of the midlands has been fine.

Grand. So there are apparently no problems in the supermarket you use or your local petrol station. Have you checked the rest of the midlands at all?

[sheldrake]

My part of the midlands has been fine.

Grand. So there are apparently no problems in the supermarket you use or your local petrol station. Have you checked the rest of the midlands at all?

I'm not sure you've checked the whole country either? Perhaps an anecdote battle isn't the best way to get at the truth.

All these segues attempting to blame Brexit for something that only happened in the last few weeks, when the data I posted earlier showed EU HGV drivers increasing since we voted to leave are pretty tenuous.

[jdc]

The last ONS report didn't give us a prior baseline, and the language it used was 'difficulty' rather than 'unable' IIRC.

Around 1 in 6 (18%) adults reported they had not been able to buy essential food items as they were not available at some point during the past two weeks; a quarter (25%) reported they had not been able to buy other non-essential food items, and a smaller proportion reported they had not been able to buy medicine (4%) or fuel (4%); around 6 in 10 (61%) reported that everything they needed had been available to buy.

[jdc]

My part of the midlands has been fine.

Grand. So there are apparently no problems in the supermarket you use or your local petrol station. Have you checked the rest of the midlands at all?

I'm not sure you've checked the whole country either? Perhaps an anecdote battle isn't the best way to get at the truth.

All these segues attempting to blame Brexit for something that only happened in the last few weeks, when the data I posted earlier showed EU HGV drivers increasing since we voted to leave are pretty tenuous.

If you haven't checked the whole country then how were you able to claim that "Fuel is readily available just fine outside the south east of the UK" which is what kicked off this part of the discussion?

I don't think Brexit is the only cause of our difficulties* but I don't think anyone can honestly say that it hasn't exacerbated them.

*For a start, there's all the complaints detailed by the Polish blogger/journo who used to be an HGV driver which I posted on one of the brexity threads about four billion years ago. According to him, conditions in the industry have been getting worse for some time and it's a much less attractive career now. Hence why he left. (I wouldn't bother looking it up though as he also mentioned Brexit as an issue and you're clearly never going to accept that that is true.)

[sheldrake]

If you haven't checked the whole country then how were you able to claim that "Fuel is readily available just fine outside the south east of the UK" which is what kicked off this part of the discussion?

Because in addition to my own experience, most mainstream media channels are reporting normality after a brief period of £30 rationing and cessation of hoarding outside of the southeast.

I don't think Brexit is the only cause of our difficulties* but I don't think anyone can honestly say that it hasn't exacerbated them.

*For a start, there's all the complaints detailed by the Polish blogger/journo who used to be an HGV driver which I posted on one of the brexity threads about four billion years ago. According to him, conditions in the industry have been getting worse for some time and it's a much less attractive career now. Hence why he left. (I wouldn't bother looking it up though as he also mentioned Brexit as an issue and you're clearly never going to accept that that is true.)

Did you see the chart I posted earlier showing % of HGV drivers in the UK who were from the EU, and see that the proportion was increasing right up to 2020 ?

[plodder]

My part of the midlands has been fine.

Grand. So there are apparently no problems in the supermarket you use or your local petrol station. Have you checked the rest of the midlands at all?

Is Northamptonshire Midlands enough for you?

https://www.northantslive.news/news/nor ... ed-5969698

[sheldrake]

My part of the midlands has been fine.

Grand. So there are apparently no problems in the supermarket you use or your local petrol station. Have you checked the rest of the midlands at all?

Is Northamptonshire Midlands enough for you?

https://www.northantslive.news/news/nor ... ed-5969698

I'm in Northamptonshire, and several of the garages mentioned did not have queues outside at all this weekend, I know because I drove past them (and used one of them)

[plodder]

Like, no-one foresaw that they'd make an example of a state who wanted to leave. Literally no-one foresaw that at all. It wasn't mentioned, the idea wasn't pooh-poohed, we weren't reassured it was all ready to go, this is all a surprise.

This isn't a surprise to most people who voted for Brexit either, but it's not having much effect as you can see from our economic metrics compared to most of the EU's. Some of the more extreme proposals from the EU are damaging to their constituent nations' economies and face internal resistance, or would be unlikely to stand up in front of the WTO.

You are both utterly deluded. It wasn't a case of making an example of the UK since the UK with its Brexit is Brexit was well capable of doing that all on its ownio.

There are consequences to your goddamn decisions. Said decisions include voting for Brexit and negotiating agreements. Screeching about those agreements now is just pathetic. The NIP is broadly supported in NI apart from by the DUP NI does not have shortage of essentials.

You would have to wonder why there was panic buying in England and not NI. Could it be that the average rate of intelligence in NI - which voted against Brexit- is higher than in England or is it because conditions there are better?

My guess is the latter. YMMV.

I'm not sure why you persist in thinking I voted for this shitshow. However it's clear the EU are negotiating hard, not compromising on any of their core principles.

[sheldrake]

However it's clear the EU are negotiating hard, not compromising on any of their core principles.

So far the EU has re-opened the withdrawal agreement when it said it wouldn't, allowed the UK to conduct the Irish sea inspections when it said it wouldn't.

There will be more compromises out of practicality. Every unreasonable pretence that UK standards are too divergent and unsafe to try and punish us hurts the EU economy too.

[plodder]

I bet they're sh.tting it.

[sheldrake]

I bet they're sh.tting it.

I don’t think that, but I do think a lot of people who voted remain underestimated our leverage. We are a non-trivial net importer of EU stuff, most of our exports go outside of the EU and have done for years. Its in their interests to be reasonable, its just a question of letting the disappointment and outrage fade to be replaced with a calmer view of their own best interests

[Bird on a Fire]

The EU's disbursing €5.4 billion to help member states cope with the financial impact of Brexit.

Portugal is getting €81 million.

According to the EU, this fund “will help the most affected regions, sectors and communities to cover additional costs, compensate for losses or combat other adverse economic and social effects directly resulting from the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union”, stressing that it is a “special and punctual emergency instrument”.

The objective is “to support public and private companies that face disturbances in trade flows, including new costs related to customs controls and administrative formalities”, the Council says, adding that Brexit “has created a situation without precedents”.

Among the measures envisaged are support for small and medium-sized enterprises, communities and regional and local organisations, including small-scale inshore fishing dependent on fishing activities in UK waters, as well as promoting job creation and reintegration into the labour market of returning EU citizens.

Measures implemented between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2023 will be supported, so as to cover expenses incurred before the end of the transition period.

The €5 billion fund was agreed last year by EU leaders as part of the 2021-2027 budget.

https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/20 ... ugal/62691

[sheldrake]

The EU's disbursing €5.4 billion to help member states cope with the financial impact of Brexit.

Portugal is getting €81 million.

According to the EU, this fund “will help the most affected regions, sectors and communities to cover additional costs, compensate for losses or combat other adverse economic and social effects directly resulting from the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union”, stressing that it is a “special and punctual emergency instrument”.

The objective is “to support public and private companies that face disturbances in trade flows, including new costs related to customs controls and administrative formalities”, the Council says, adding that Brexit “has created a situation without precedents”.

Among the measures envisaged are support for small and medium-sized enterprises, communities and regional and local organisations, including small-scale inshore fishing dependent on fishing activities in UK waters, as well as promoting job creation and reintegration into the labour market of returning EU citizens.

Measures implemented between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2023 will be supported, so as to cover expenses incurred before the end of the transition period.

The €5 billion fund was agreed last year by EU leaders as part of the 2021-2027 budget.

https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/20 ... ugal/62691

I'm sure the remaining net contributors will be delighted.

[Bird on a Fire]

Well, they voted for it.

France is getting a lot because of the fish stuff.

[Millennie Al]

Can you point us to the article in the Withdrawal Agreement or the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement which mentions this "meant to be temporary" thing?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eement.pdf

DETERMINED that the application of this Protocol should impact as little as possible on the everyday
life of communities in both Ireland and Northern Ireland,

RECALLING that Northern Ireland is part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom and will
benefit from participation in the United Kingdom's independent trade policy,
HAVING REGARD to the importance of maintaining the integral place of Northern Ireland in the
United Kingdom’s internal market,

And in particular

Having regard to Northern Ireland's integral place in the United Kingdom's internal market, the
Union and the United Kingdom shall use their best endeavours to facilitate the trade between
Northern Ireland and other parts of the United Kingdom, in accordance with applicable
legislation and taking into account their respective regulatory regimes as well as the
implementation thereof. The Joint Committee shall keep the application of this paragraph
under constant review and shall adopt appropriate recommendations with a view to avoiding
controls at the ports and airports of Northern Ireland to the extent possible.

The UK government's point is that the EU has not been making a best endeavour as described in the bolded section. I agree with the UK government on this point. The EU's goal is to attempt to enact a punishment for leaving the EU, and politicians from many EU member nations have actually voiced agreement.

None of that says that anything is temporary. Point out the words which make it temporary.

[Millennie Al]

So do you think the EU has made a sincere good faith effort to restore the internal integrity of the UK, as they signed up to above, or not?

I thought the whole point of Brexit was that matters internal to the UK were none of the business of the EU. The whole soverignty thing.